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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #40,421
  • May 7, 2013 8:23am May 7, 2013 8:23am
Quoting fti
{quote} refresher me needed. regards

Well i meant for me..i had planned the attack that way...i always hesititate to go big on first mindset problem but if i had scout i dont have much problem in going big ...so it wa splanned send a short scout and then go big if needed ...also was planned that if sudden jump of rate i might flip if needed to catch as much as i can...

thats all the mental prepration i did....

V
  • #40,422
  • May 7, 2013 8:46am May 7, 2013 8:46am
Quoting fti
{quote} refresher me needed. but you have lots foreign cap play with to take the scout gamble i suspect lser's limp for me, but i just trying find my saddle again yet, so no have much fats play with on the new books. They that have will gets more, while, well if you poor best be contented. even jesus said so. but of course he was talking about kindness. yes, you strategised well, it paid handsomely. regards

yea foregin capital and i broke your one cardinal rule... i went short at 1.02 and put a stop loss at 1.024 and took a profit at 1.016...

so i had a risk reward of 1:1 ....:rofl.... made me remeber this story....


The New Footprints
Now imagine you and the Lord Jesus are walking along the beach together.
For much of the way the Lord's footprints go along steadily, consistently, rarely varying in the pace. But your prints are in a disorganized stream of zig zags, starts, stops, turnarounds, circles, departures, and returns. For much of the way it seems to go like this. But gradually, your footprints come in line with the Lord's, soon paralleling His consistently. You and Jesus are walking as true friends.
This seems perfect, but then an interesting thing happens; your footprints that once etched the sand next to the Master's are now walking precisely in His steps. Inside His large footprints is the smaller "sandprint," safely enclosed. You and Jesus are becoming one; this goes on for many miles.
But gradually you notice another change. The footprints inside the larger footprints seem to grow larger. Eventually it disappears altogether. There is only one set of footprints. They have become one; again this goes on for a long time.
But then something awful happens. The second set of footprints is back. This time it seems even worse than before. Zig zags all over the place. Stop...start. Deep gashes in the sand. A veritable mess of prints. You're amazed and shocked. But this is the end of your dream.
Now you speak: "Lord, I understand the first scene with the zig zags, fits, starts, and so on. I was a new Christian, just learning. But You walked on through the storm and helped me learn to walk with You."
"That is correct," replied the Lord.
"Then, when the smaller footprints were inside of Yours, I was actually learning to walk in Your steps. I followed You very closely."
"Very good. You have understood everything so far."
"Then the smaller footprints grew and eventually filled in with Yours. I suppose that I was actually growing so much that I was becoming more like You in every way."
"Precisely."
"But this is my question, Lord. Was there a regression of something? The footprints went back to two, and this time it was worse than the first."
The Lord smiles, then laughs. "You didn't know?" He says, "That was when we danced."


V
  • #40,423
  • May 7, 2013 8:55am May 7, 2013 8:55am
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} yea foregin capital and i broke your one cardinal rule... i went short at 1.02 and put a stop loss at 1.024 and took a profit at 1.016... so i had a risk reward of 1:1 ....:rofl.... made me remeber this story.... The New Footprints Now imagine you and the Lord Jesus are walking along the beach together. For much of the way the Lord's footprints go along steadily, consistently, rarely varying in the pace. But your prints are in a disorganized stream of zig zags, starts, stops, turnarounds, circles, departures, and returns. For much of the...
Good story
  • #40,424
  • May 7, 2013 9:26am May 7, 2013 9:26am
Quoting fti
{quote} is not so much the distraction and no apologies necessary. Is only i finding difficulty get back on the saddle. but the frustration of the miss, sent my heart overdrive and body switched off. Thank God , there is such a thing as sleep. now seems body reset. But still i need go stand down mode try find myself. BUT for you, you need think about your events trading mindset. I am a little worried about you getting stuck in bias mindset, when markets are in flux. But you new to this mode of markets. So is not any major issue. You need get...
Thankyou for your patience,

I have seen many many of 'fast gun' trading..mostly get faces blown off with wide fills or caught in bull bear traps..the german factory orders this afternoon gapped 6 pips on one of my platforms... thats a very very fast gun..dreamlike...inexperienced or gambling if you like..

If you read back to the post this morning I asked in your opinion what was the difference between 07 and trading today..your answer was..

'they have muscles shade fast so mm need be quiet robust.
if cannot manage then off the leverage until foreign cap builds some cushion.'

Is this then, when trading events, counter to a strategy of 'pick the carcass's' as you have said in earlier posts?

Last week when the Australian PM and Treasuer stepped up to the plate on every financial channel that would take their (or taxpayers) money.. I said they would cut the rates(earlier post to you)...without ego.. I have the priveledge of knowing these hounds for a longtime..home ground advantage if you like..they are bad actors..
I did not let this bias the mind but it is VITAL information to me... information that led me to day..some 9 days later... the actual short was at 103.50..then the gap at open this week that did not get filled in...
18. All warfare is based on deception

Again this morning, soros in the market..I dont know ..50 pips...small battle..but the gold that come out, in my humble opinion, is what you said..'is no loss but also very stable after the few seconds.may be is counter measures...and here..i missed bomb away, then is so stable , big boys controlling, i can't read a thing. and i seeing no flow,' you read the stability.. so did I..this may not sound important to this event but further down the track..I will remember..hindsight is 20/20 but after that 50 pip fall ..stability was rock solid...this is very important to me. I have been in conflicts where $$ was the least of importance.. more over.. data releases are released way before they show up on the chart sometimes days before..so if I am not listening..Im Dead!..if that is an 'inexperienced' bias..then so be it.. Im still kicking after a decade or so.

Most the recent posts I have read over the last couple of weeks pertain to market makers and manipulators of the price..is this then not feeding into their hands by 'fast gun' actions.?

What happened to the sniper...he's acurate mostly...and comes home more than not.

Hopefully I havent hit any sensitivity, but as I said in earlier posts..this has real substance to it..I am trying to understand some things that are being contradicted.

21. If he is secure at all points, be prepared for him.
If he is in superior strength, evade him.

I think the sniper has more longevity.

you said I wasnt distracting :-)
  • #40,425
  • May 7, 2013 10:17am May 7, 2013 10:17am
Quoting liqidone
{quote} Thankyou for your patience, I have seen many many of 'fast gun' trading..mostly get faces blown off with wide fills or caught in bull bear traps..the german factory orders this afternoon gapped 6 pips on one of my platforms... thats a very very fast gun..dreamlike...inexperienced or gambling if you like.. If you read back to the post this morning I asked in your opinion what was the difference between 07 and trading today..your answer was.. 'they have muscles shade fast so mm need be quiet robust. if cannot manage then off the leverage until...

I want to chime in being i guess an oldie but chief is answering so i be a spectator...may ia sk few question without hitting sensitivily...

how old r u and if i may ask what was the longest duration u sat on one trading and what was result and hwo u felt..

V
  • #40,426
  • May 7, 2013 11:55am May 7, 2013 11:55am
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} Well i meant for me..i had planned the attack that way...i always hesititate to go big on first mindset problem but if i had scout i dont have much problem in going big ...so it wa splanned send a short scout and then go big if needed ...also was planned that if sudden jump of rate i might flip if needed to catch as much as i can... thats all the mental prepration i did.... V
from results, seems was enough.


regards
  • #40,427
  • May 7, 2013 11:58am May 7, 2013 11:58am
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} yea foregin capital and i broke your one cardinal rule... i went short at 1.02 and put a stop loss at 1.024 and took a profit at 1.016... so i had a risk reward of 1:1 ....:rofl.... made me remeber this story.... The New Footprints Now imagine you and the Lord Jesus are walking along the beach together. For much of the way the Lord's footprints go along steadily, consistently, rarely varying in the pace. But your prints are in a disorganized stream of zig zags, starts, stops, turnarounds, circles, departures, and returns. For much of the...

nice.

regards
  • #40,428
  • May 7, 2013 12:06pm May 7, 2013 12:06pm
Quoting fti
{quote} nice. regards

i tried looking for 1:3 but couldnt fin so i sticked with 1:1 ...

V
  • #40,429
  • May 7, 2013 12:07pm May 7, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting liqidone
{quote} Thankyou for your patience, I have seen many many of 'fast gun' trading..mostly get faces blown off with wide fills or caught in bull bear traps..the german factory orders this afternoon gapped 6 pips on one of my platforms... thats a very very fast gun..dreamlike...inexperienced or gambling if you like.. If you read back to the post this morning I asked in your opinion what was the difference between 07 and trading today..your answer was.. 'they have muscles shade fast so mm need be quiet robust. if cannot manage then off the leverage until...
this the reason why you need have robust money management.
otherwise after you fast gun them you standing there nothing else you can do except watch how they going play you.
With good mm and strategies you have answers to everything they may like to try take you out.
if your mm not robust. when you hitting end of your rope. only thing you can do is watch and pray.
otherwise you can still impliment counter measures to their countermeasures.
so its battle, and strongest or most versatile will take the bacon home , while the bull and bears tenure positions still sorting themselves out, in the market.

there no fixed rules what strategies is best.
the best strategy is that which elevates the books bottom line.
so it has to be a combination of multiple strategies. Each addressing a changing envronment.



regards
  • #40,430
  • May 7, 2013 1:13pm May 7, 2013 1:13pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} I want to chime in being i guess an oldie but chief is answering so i be a spectator...may ia sk few question without hitting sensitivily... how old r u and if i may ask what was the longest duration u sat on one trading and what was result and hwo u felt.. V

Shcucks...are you asking for a date?

Depending on what year,mostly intraday, sometimes longer.. scale in/out of longer position with shorter ones a while back, occasionally now...sometimes a rifle sometimes a razor

These days.. I eat a minute steak in 30 seconds sometimes..or turn tables and have to do dishes.

..and my age.. old enough to have lost most sensitivity...cant feel the end of my fingers anymore!

This is me at last years reunion.... now about that date??
Attached Image
  • #40,431
  • May 7, 2013 1:15pm May 7, 2013 1:15pm
Quoting liqidone
{quote} Shcucks...are you asking for a date? Depending on what year,mostly intraday, sometimes longer.. scale in/out of longer position with shorter ones a while back, occasionally now...sometimes a rifle sometimes a razor These days.. I eat a minute steak in 30 seconds sometimes..or turn tables and have to do dishes. ..and my age.. old enough to have lost most sensitivity...cant feel the end of my fingers anymore! This is me at last years reunion.... now about that date?? {image}

a lot ot learn a lot to learn....

V
  • #40,432
  • May 7, 2013 5:01pm May 7, 2013 5:01pm
Quoting liqidone
{quote} Shcucks...are you asking for a date? Depending on what year,mostly intraday, sometimes longer.. scale in/out of longer position with shorter ones a while back, occasionally now...sometimes a rifle sometimes a razor These days.. I eat a minute steak in 30 seconds sometimes..or turn tables and have to do dishes. ..and my age.. old enough to have lost most sensitivity...cant feel the end of my fingers anymore! This is me at last years reunion.... now about that date?? {image}
Bad picture... dissapointed....
  • #40,433
  • Edited 9:18pm May 7, 2013 8:15pm | Edited 9:18pm
Vic, someone out performed you.6%? he whacked 1 b in markets when i couldn't even get 500k done. not even 100k.
size have its advantage.

it appears the 82-year-old American pulled off the deal three times, all with different foreign exchange brokers in Asia, for a tidy profit of almost $US60 million.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...#ixzz2SexJv6AG

now some asian market makers big hole in their pockets.
where they going get it back from?
the ants?

vic how much you whacked?
just order that beamer, they talking NZ$ now.







  • #40,434
  • May 7, 2013 9:15pm May 7, 2013 9:15pm
jac, my friend.
any chance we do big tickets again.
This crawling up my pains.

how much you made this one.
We cannot be so under performing?

regards
  • #40,435
  • May 7, 2013 9:18pm May 7, 2013 9:18pm
Quoting fti
Vic, someone out performed you.6%? he whacked 1 b in markets when i couldn't even get 500k done. not even 100k. size have its advantage. it appears the 82-year-old American pulled off the deal three times, all with different foreign exchange brokers in Asia, for a tidy profit of almost $US60 million. Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...#ixzz2SexJv6AG now some asian market makers big hole in their pockets. where they going get it back from? the ants? vic how...

I am happy to be ant.....why do i need to come in limelight...i rather in shadows and get my feed and sleep in small bed which all i need...enough for me to sustain and never enough to bloat my ego.....

V

PS: he did good...good for him...
  • #40,436
  • May 7, 2013 9:21pm May 7, 2013 9:21pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} I am happy to be ant.....why do i need to come in limelight...i rather in shadows and get my feed and sleep in small bed which all i need...enough for me to sustain and never enough to bloat my ego..... V PS: he did good...good for him...
my friend , this one i feeling the pain.
we struggling day in day out.
for what?
all needs i home run.

heard anything on NZ$ yet?
looks like action is coming asian zone.

regards
  • #40,437
  • May 7, 2013 9:35pm May 7, 2013 9:35pm
Quoting fti
{quote} my friend , this one i feeling the pain. we struggling day in day out. for what? all needs i home run. heard anything on NZ$ yet? looks like action is coming asian zone. regards

Chief,

yea i wont cry if i score a big home run...someday ...in meanwhile ants work it is....

V

PS: learnt if somehting that came in flash goes in flash ...what comes slow stays long too..

Looking for piccolo,auxesis...seems like where these guys are gone...
  • #40,438
  • May 7, 2013 9:40pm May 7, 2013 9:40pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} Chief, yea i wont cry if i score a big home run...someday ...in meanwhile ants work it is.... V PS: learnt if somehting that came in flash goes in flash ...what comes slow stays long too.. Looking for piccolo,auxesis...seems like where these guys are gone...
why they gone?
you mean from market or from ff?

i don't think so
aux , not possible. he very good already.
i think even Lusan is around, maybe busy.


regards
  • #40,439
  • May 7, 2013 9:41pm May 7, 2013 9:41pm
Quoting fti
{quote} why they gone? regards
means havent seen them for long they usually stop by....


V
  • #40,440
  • Edited 10:14pm May 7, 2013 10:04pm | Edited 10:14pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} means havent seen them for long they usually stop by.... V
vic, lots peeps not stop by already.
who want listen old cranky, repeat, repeat and repeat stuff.

if me not so bad shape, i set up big fund.
i got feeling i repeated stuff passing 3 times already.
even some music.

wished my old friends still around. They have all the expertise get it done nicely.
see avatar. only problem is since 1989 many retired, and some no with us already.
all left when Db hostile takeover. the old boys are classed. the new one i not familiar.
heard 1 went rogue.


regards
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