Higher low, lower high system

Recap 22 Apr

EUR - The support/resistance levels 1.3000-1.3120 are still containing price. 1hr 50 ema flat signaling a general sideways range.
Had no bias, small range day.

GU - Lower high lower low flow, bias down.
Result: Bias down did not play out. The lows at 1.5200 held. A morning star pattern after London open did not give a 15 min higher low entry due to the upper wicks. The 1hr higher low 3 bar reversal after US open did give an entry. Despite the down bias buying buying here was in line with the counter trend rules. Support level, W M2 pivot, divergence on 4hr and 1hr, price proving over hours that it does not want to go lower.

EJ - Higher high higher low flow, bias up.
Result: Bias up did not play out. Price peaked at the identified previous high resistance area, divergence on 1hr. We got an entry on 15 min after the doji when it looked like a rally up failed. Again complies with counter trend rules, in a nutshell the 1hr showed the flow had changed.

EUR GU EJ 23 Apr

EUR - D shooting star followed by a hammer, within the identified support/resistance levels.Overall bias down but with the support level 1.3000 holding would look elsewhere until the range breaks.

GU - D positive close but again not very inspiring. 4hr positive divergence at the lows but that could have played out. 4hr evening star pattern suggests move lower. 4hr still on lower high lower low. Bias down until flow can switch positive.

EJ - D negative close with a lower wick. 4hr, 1hr flow on lower high lower low. Bias down until flow switches positive.

Hi Van

Please tell me are arrows 3 bar reversal setup according to our rules?

Regards
Frank

Arrow left is, it closes higher than the previous 2 candle closes.

Arrow right is not, only closing higher than the previous candle.

same type of setup Y'day.please enlighten me what did you see that time?

frank

The EJ 1hr doji that followed the positive close inside bar, certainly seemed like it was a struggle to go up.

We had broken the immediate range lower i.e. below 130.10, came back and tested it. Looking at the 15 min at that time it was all upper wicks. 15 min made a clear lower high wave, Mrs V felt that the short term flow has flipped negative.

We don't exclude set ups other than the 3 bar reversal, its just they happen so often that they seem to get the major attention.

On a separate note, the H4 Power thread is definitely worth looking at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=421431 many similar views to trading as here.

We missed out in the morning due to the size of entry candles. Did get this EUR reject of move below 1.30. Price refusing to go lower for 5 hours.

Recap 23 Apr

EUR - D shooting star followed by a hammer, within the identified support/resistance levels.Overall bias down but with the support level 1.3000 holding would look elsewhere until the range breaks.
Result: Moved up to the W pivot 1.3084 and fell quickly in line with the bias but with a 60 pip entry candle not a set up we would trade.

GU - D positive close but again not very inspiring. 4hr positive divergence at the lows but that could have played out. 4hr evening star pattern suggests move lower. 4hr still on lower high lower low. Bias down until flow can switch positive.
Result: Down bias played out until 1hr lower wick clearly rejecting the move below W M2 1.5222.

EJ - D negative close with a lower wick. 4hr, 1hr flow on lower high lower low. Bias down until flow switches positive.
Result: Down bias played out until the Feb highs were reached and after approx 5 hours moved up.

EUR GU EJ 24 Apr

EUR - D negative close lower high 3 bar reversal, below 8lwma and below 50 level. 4hr lower high lower low flow in tact. Obviously the buyers at 1.30 may not have finished yet so care with entry required as always. We have W S1 at 1.2967 and this is the general area from Feb/Mar where there was also support. Bias down.

GU - D closed negative below 8 lwma and below RSI 50 level. The 1.52 level is still providing support but we did make a new low (with divergence on 4hr) and a lower high (1.5286 so regard divergence as having played out). There is the idea of what doesn't go down will go up but for now until price action confirms otherwise retaining down bias.

EJ - D closed again with a big lower wick bouncing off the Feb high. I am having difficulty reading EJ again today and can only suggest the trading basics of trend and support/resistance levels (i.e. trading the reaction to those levels).

We have sold GU above 1.53 not totally believing the move up in Asian session. 4hr upper wick, 1hr shooting star. Mrs V getting change of season sniffles so this will be a 1 trade day. The 1.5285 area may give support, by then we will be at BE and we'll see where it goes whilst Mrs V climbs into bed. Half an eye on the trade at work.

Stop at BE.

EUR GU EJ 29 April

EUR - Last week closed a hammer after a shooting star, the W chart clearly showing the indecision in the market. D closed a doji, 4hr last close a doji. 1hr gapped up but has already closed. All in all a mess, no bias.

GU - Not much follow through higher on Fri after Thursdays over sized positive close. 4hr showing negative divergence on Fri. Flow is clearly up, bias up.

EJ - W closed negative and we are now at the Jan Feb W chart highs (of the candle bodies). D negative close below 50 RSI. 4hr has had a strong move down with almost no retrace. 1hr showing positive divergence. Potential for a bounce up, bias is down.

Recap 30 Apr

EUR - D closed positive yesterday at the 1.3100/20 resistance level. 4hr on higher low. Bias up with potential to fall from yesterdays highs.
Result: An early move up struggled at yesterdays highs. The move down to W M3 stalled for 5 hours then moved up strongly.

GU - D closed a shooting star still well above the 8lwma. 4hr still on higher low flow, bias up.
Result: An intra day higher low, morning star pattern on 1hr signaled strong move up during US session.

EJ - D closed a doji with the Feb highs support level holding, still below 8lwma. 4hr above 8lwma but in view of the upper wicks bias down with the potential to bounce from 127.00/60 support area.
Result: A move down to the general support area mentioned/W M2 was followed by strong move up.

EUR GU EJ 1 May

Bank holidays in Germany, France and Italy should reduce volumes. We will probably focus on US session today.

EUR - Since the Apr lows we have had 3 decent legs up with yesterday a solid positive close.We are in the region of the Apr highs resistance area (16 Apr D body close to wick 1.3175/1.3200). 4hr flow higher high higher low. Bias up but counter trend trades possible in this area.

GU - D closed positive. 4hr flow higher high higher low in tact but seems to be a struggle higher and we have divergence. At the moment we are battling to stay above the high from 29 Apr. A flip over to a short term sell (until D confirms change of trend) would be no surprise.

EJ - D closed a hammer but could not break the previous days high. Still below D 8lwma and RSI above 50 level but has not crossed its signal line. 4hr chart clearly shows current range 128.50-127.20. 4hr suggests higher. Bias up.

Recap 1 May

Was a public holiday here and we had the day off, so no trades for us.

EUR - Since the Apr lows we have had 3 decent legs up with yesterday a solid positive close.We are in the region of the Apr highs resistance area (16 Apr D body close to wick 1.3175/1.3200). 4hr flow higher high higher low. Bias up but counter trend trades possible in this area.
Result: Bias up played out until W R3 reached 1.3235, sold off from there in US session.

GU - D closed positive. 4hr flow higher high higher low in tact but seems to be a struggle higher and we have divergence. At the moment we are battling to stay above the high from 29 Apr. A flip over to a short term sell (until D confirms change of trend) would be no surprise.
Result: Bias up played out, reaching Mar '12 lows resistance level/D upper channel/W R1 1.5580.

EJ - D closed a hammer but could not break the previous days high. Still below D 8lwma and RSI above 50 level but has not crossed its signal line. 4hr chart clearly shows current range 128.50-127.20. 4hr suggests higher. Bias up.
Result: Bias up played out in London session selling off a little in US session.

EUR GU EJ 2 May

EUR - D closed a shooting star rejecting an identified resistance level/W R3 1.3235 with divergence. On D chart this can be a pause in uptrend as we are above the 8 lwma and 50 RSI level. 4hr has signaled a sell with engulfing close, short term bias down with potential to revert to D uptrend.

GU - D closed a shooting star rejecting upper channel/resistance level/W R1 1.5580. 4hr showing divergence and has signaled a sell. Short term bias down with potential to revert to D uptrend.

EJ - D closed a doji. 4hr has signaled a sell, short term bias down.

EUR GU EJ 3 May

It took the EUR interest rate decision to bring the pairs down. We didn't get an entry we liked so no trades yesterday.

NFP today.

EUR - D closed as an evening star pattern which we would expect to follow through lower. Bias down.

GU - D closed a doji, still not able to close below the 8lwma or make RSI cross its signal line. 4hr did have a lower high following the divergence. 1hr confirms flow now lower high lower low. Bias down.

EJ - D close a shooting star with a large upper wick. The 1.2770 Feb high support area still holding. Bias down but this could easily flip up.

Whilst we are quite happy to take CT trades when our rules permit this is a very good example of a mechanical trend based method. 100pipsaday's D1 - 20 ema + 50 ema. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...81#post6659881

Well worth a read and taking note of the strict application of the rules. Bottom line he has a definition of higher TF trend then its buying dips/selling rallies in terms of his 1hr set up. Nice.

Recap 6 May

EUR - D closed positive and we are above 50 RSI. 4hr appears to be on a lower high with a base at 1.3040. Still bouncing within the bigger range 1.2985/1.3200. No bias.
Result: With the UK public holiday a narrow range held by the W pivot and W M2.

GU - D closed positive near last weeks highs. Bias up with potential to fall from the highs/W M3 1.5588.
Result: Fell from the highs.

EJ - D closed positive and whilst we are approaching resistance levels (and would need to take appropriate caution) bias up.
Result: Narrow range, Fri's high held.

EUR GU EJ 7 May

EUR - D closed an inside candle. Range bound trading generally means trading the reaction to the W pivots/support resistance levels. An engulfing negative close on 1hr would set up a move to test 1.3050/1.3000.

GU - Has struggled below 1.5600 which is the top of a D channel for a week. A weak D close and we have not yet crossed below the 8lwma. If the 4hr closes negative here we are on a lower high suggesting move down will continue. Bias down.

EJ - D closed a small doji. The 4hr does not appear to be reacting lower in the same fashion as it did after the 25 April doji. A 4hr hammer/engulfing close here would set up a move higher. At the moment the 1hr flow is lower high lower low.

Picture of ADUD.. 15 min..with 200 ema and 20 ema i got this using 1 mi to enter..as per your rule 15 min above or below.. 200 ema .. i have stayed short.. Thank You