Why So Many Have A Bear Market Mindset In A Bull Market | Forex Factory

Why So Many Have A Bear Market Mindset In A Bull Market | Forex Factory

Why So Many Have A Bear Market Mindset In A Bull Market

From seekingalpha.com

Market analysts and pundits, like politicians, have never been so polarized. And much like politicians and their more vocal followers, the different factions -- bulls versus bears-- are not always so nice to each other. Rather than "go there", let's look at the potential misconceptions as to why so many are so dissatisfied in the face of such a strong uptrend in U. S. blue chip stocks. When we compare the potential for growth in the economy now to previous decades it is clear that to expect 1980's growth now would be unreasonable. Credit cards alone makes this so. In the early 80's the growth of consumer credit was ... (full story)

Comments / Top

Apr 27, 2013 7:05am

Lol.. always good for a laugh.

I agree 100 percent, it's a bullshit market and to see that fucking clown Lou Dobs (I hate that guy) trying to take on Peter Schiff claiming his pessimistic attitude is a symptom of a creative imagination was a joke.

We're making new highs he says, we are consolidating he says, its all ok, Peter doesn't know what he's talking about he says.

Well he made clowns of a hell of a lot of scoffing media economist A-holes who thought he was nuts for a negative housing outlook, '08 was where we would turn the corner they said.

A little off topic, it is a bull market 'cause it's going up, but it's fake as hell, there's no sustainable reason for it, it's going to crash and burn for sure, just a matter of time.

I'll be interested in Golds direction 2nd half of this year...

Apr 27, 2013 2:59pm — Edited

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

Do not care much for what you guys are discussing (does not affect the price of fish for all I know) but completely agree with your feelings on that Lou Dobs proposition - thought he was retired. Never watch CNN anymore since I discovered Aljazeera to be the best network on earth. Cheers

Ignored

Well I hope so, the sooner that guy gets out of public view the better.
So many people lost so much money listening to these personalities, yet they keep trolling out the same retarded logic about taking markets at face value and never considering the obvious like bubbles, bailouts, QE, bankrupt states, ...

Makes me wonder what their agenda is...

Apr 27, 2013 3:00pm

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

And according to Bloomberg and Reuters the positive equities market is due to good earnings, and Enron style accounting obviously, but that last bit's never mentioned.

Ignored

Its clearly same shit, new decade
Relying on the fact there is a new sucker born everyday who hasn't experienced the BS before.

Apr 27, 2013 3:09pm

Quoting Trout

Disliked

always interesting times -- and looking forward to seeing if May brings us the usual seasonal up-turn in the Greenback and down-turn in stocks and currencies...

Ignored

Watching that also.
GU 1.57 and 58 are definately areas of interest for selling pressure for sure.

Apr 28, 2013 5:31pm

Quoting Spreadbetter

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Wtf, why lump Joseph Stiglitz in there? A more reasoned iconoclast you'd struggle to find.

Ignored

I agree, Stiglitz is a strong voice of reason.

It's not hard to go against established (I would actually call it "current") convention, when it is broken and corrupt.

If we look back to the more conservative outlook of Americas founders and earlier, it is the current manipulators who are going against (established) convention in my view.

Apr 28, 2013 5:40pm

Quoting Trout

Disliked

wow...well it certainly is true that we all trade - or at least talk -- our belief system. regardless of having seen much tougher times all the way around, that still makes no difference re: anyone's ability to to step up and make thier daily bread in the market right here right now.

My point is whatever the bear or bull's beef is, it should not impede them from making money tonight or tomorrow, or the next day.

If current policies or events have rendered your methods useless, I feel for you, but no more so than I'm sure you would have felt...

Ignored

I agree, perhaps the philosophical debate that has erupted may have strayed a little (or a lot) from your message of moving with markets to make money that's all.

However, I can see how sections of your post have stimulated this discussion.
peace, it's been fun..

Apr 28, 2013 7:55pm

I think this "panel" is on desperate need of a "host", not me mind you, my time zone does not allow such regular intervention

It could be said an argument is the exchange of "perceived" "facts", (whether they actually are or not).

A discussion (it could be "argued" - lol..) is an exchange of "ideas" open to flexibility of thought.

I guess the question is who is likely to be more ignorant?
Those who scream until they are blue in the face that they are right, or those with open minds to the experiences of others.

I'm about as ignorant as they come so do be careful what you open your mind to

Lol...

Apr 29, 2013 1:58am

Unless of course one has misinterpreted the application of Fundamental thinking here as a trading guide (even if obviously contrarion), rather than just an indulgence in taking a swipe at an institution one may believe as being predatory in its false publicly stated bearish forecast

From one Tech analyst to another

Apr 29, 2013 6:08am

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

Lets get this straight - it is a supposition always that anyone can tell what discrete factor drives a market. The job of a trader is to device a method that allows him to trade the market profitably regardless. If what drives a market is that deducible we would all be billionaires. The market is the market - it aggregates the sum of all sentiments to define price over time according to an algo. The job of a trader is to craft and means that reads that algo correctly nearly every time. So all this sound of fury coming from market minions mean nothing...

Ignored

This is hilarious, Squeeze talking about the moral hazard of Central Bank Equity intervention and in response you try to school him in market interpretation for profit??

Are these 2 connected??

Seems you have brought your frustration to a level that has deprived you of logic.

Apr 29, 2013 7:37am

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

I find it really funny you think I am frustrated - since there is no reason for me to be. First let us deal with the indisputable facts. I have demonstrated right here and now an ability to calculate the movement of price to about 1 pip (+/-) and without reference to long winded absurdities such as the lot about have engaged in right here. Now if trading is an economic activity in which the efficiency of the use of capital is a good who is making more sense by his choice of focus? The man who is calling trades effectively or the man discussing issues...

Ignored

Ok you jolted me awake for just a few minutes.
Your long winded post about technical market theory in response to Squeezes' simple post of his surprise at learning Central Banks are intervening in Equity markets as a point of "discussion" rather than a point to "profit" from seemed out of place to me.
I have no doubt at all you are more schooled at economics than I since I didn't study it beyond high school and alluded to this in a previous post.
Your tone towards supposed "indisputable facts" suggests a level of perfection you feel you have, yet we all have wrong calls yourself included. This particular point though is not mine to discuss since I have not witnessed these apparent facts, so that point has fallen on deaf ears I'm afraid

In so far as you feel your contribution in here has been greater than others, if we poor cretins are unable to discern what it is you are alluding to (as you pointed out), then what contribution is that??
Anyway, it's been fun if not a little too much...

Goodnight

Apr 29, 2013 1:15pm

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

I hate to break this to you but nobody is paying any attention to you, is that what you class as a call? It's got more wriggle room than a can of worms.

Open a thread on the main forum and do your calls on there, I'm sure you'll be ripped to pieces but you might learn an invaluable lesson.

Ignored

I agree, but I seriously doubt it will happen.
No charts, no entries on screen...

Apr 29, 2013 1:40pm

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

I believe several posters have suggested it to him, that's precisely why FF has a commercial beta section; for 'honest Joe's' to punt their ideas, if they work they'll get a commercial following if not they usually fade from view.

Ignored

Precisely

Apr 29, 2013 1:57pm

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

So, are we going to see 3330 on the EURO?
With Goldman Sucks publicly forecasting a rate cut...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6643396

Ignored

Yes LG, target area somewhere between 1.33 and 1.34.
Now where did you get that idea from?

lol...

Apr 30, 2013 3:04am

Why on earth does a tech trader who applies no Fundamentals to his trading hide, uh, I mean, make everyone of his trade calls in the News/Fundamental section of FF??

Retarded logic?, or just limiting the damage when things don't work out??

Apr 30, 2013 3:20am

Quoting Squeeze

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I've never seen a call from him, be genuinely interested to follow.

Ignored

Not 1 call?
But that can't be right, he says it is indisputable that he can call the market moves with an accuracy of +/- 1 pip.

He wouldn't be full of it would he?

Surely not!!

Apr 30, 2013 3:59am

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

Somebody help me out - what is the utility of "healthy debate" to a trader? This is not a debating society it is a forum for traders seeking to better their lot - if you can't help you can at least RIP.

Ignored

I'll help you out.
Fundies have no legitimate place in trading right?
So for what other use is this news section besides healthy debate?
I mean surely it's of no use to traders looking to improve their lot!

And why is it so difficult for you to realisw that traders have other interests beyond trading?

I mean FF have obviously figured it out, others have not.

Apr 30, 2013 4:04am

Quoting Fx Hiflyer

Disliked

this is not a place for debate it is a place for exchanging trade ideas around trade events so people can make some money - get it?

do you want me to repeat what he said a zillion times for you to understand ?

Ignored

Yep, you are under his spell, I feel for you, I really do..

Apr 30, 2013 4:32am

Quoting Fx Hiflyer

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i like to stay here in the news section where i started..it's fun

Ignored

Precisely, an objective of participating in this section (beyond trading)formally identified, well done.

Debate is fun isn't it

Apr 30, 2013 6:54am

Quoting ReaM

Disliked

With a communist propaganda voice: We are the top of the strongest market in recent years! There has never been a better time and place to buy than now! You are a low income factory worker? No worries! Buy NOW and see your wealth grow in the next years! Believe in yourself and in your country. The markets have no other place to go but higher! Buy now!

Ignored

lol...

If you insist Sire

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6647346

Apr 30, 2013 7:00am

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

A box of tricks is price - did you guys see the move? You got to know chaos to trade.

Ignored

lol...

Biggest load of crap ever heard

Swissy gong nicely too

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6647371

And all the while I thought you were waiting for a retrace to 1.30-29 area on the Euro??

lol..

Apr 30, 2013 7:19am

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

Here is a true algo we have a signal to trend up (5% risk of failure) - but on a bounce around the daily average - so watch out for just that later tonight early tomorrow (London may be). In effect see a bounce around 1.30130/1.29 handle go for it . Cheers

Ignored

Oh I'm sorry Hiflyer, did I misread something

Apr 30, 2013 7:26am

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

These days I only work off market orders with very tight MM using dynamic trailing stops. Yesterday good, 2.45% account growth, today was looking poor (down 0.55%) suddenly the day is over and into positive territory. 1% up.

Ignored

Yes me also, always market orders for quite a while now.

I used to use limit orders also but resulted in too much screen time to make adjustments mid session. Markets not trending on higher TF's the way they used to hasn't helped with correct limit order placement.

On my small account it is not too much of big issue for me anyway

Apr 30, 2013 7:33am

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

Lol, no you appear to be very systematic, if it works don't be tempted to break it, you need a significant sample for the probabilities to work in your favour :-)

Ignored

Yes mechanical actually, using 4hr TF swing points, channels and S/R measure breaks in line with the "main" weekly and "current" daily trend.

Apr 30, 2013 7:37am

Quoting Fx Hiflyer

Disliked

loaded : Just woke up and from what I read price is still phased down in the lower time frames. Meaning the tendency is down to make the 500 - 800 points south (or more) to reach a Directional Change Fractal (DCF) in the lower time dimensions. This is a trade in its own right (i.e. the reaction down mentioned yesterday is still to manifest and for me until it does and we get strong support in that process I have not a HARD bounce).

Going down nicely are we not buddy - I mean FX Hiflyer certainly not squeeze hanging around still unsure what to...

Ignored

And yet 1.30417 missed and now well and truly "out of site".
Best that many missed this "bearish" trade kindly handed to us all here on a platter no?

You simply fell into that one I'm afraid mate

lol...

Apr 30, 2013 7:55am

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

IMHO one of the worst aspects of looking for short cuts and blindly following lost prophets, is the tendency to hold onto trades and ideas when the fail is obvious. I get the impression that walking eagle is not only scared to take a loss, any loss, but also then re-calibrates his nonsense for his audience (of 2) to justify his lame reasoning. Weird how lo-fly is picking up on his language.

On the subject of losses I've had 14 trades trigger over the past two sessions, with 8 winners equalling 1.5% gain. That's it for me now for the day.

Ignored

I agree, I've reduced my "interactive thread" activity significantly lately and much better for it, focusing on my own trades rather than mixing my own ideas with others. works for some but I realized not for me.

Well done, I'm sitting on just under 4% on these 2 but looking forward to a cable bear next week "I think" by the looks of it that could be 1500 pips in the making, but waiting until the point arrives before I have a better idea on that one.
Its just my most aggressive idea that's all..

I'm off to bed, night all..

Apr 30, 2013 8:05am

Quoting Fx Hiflyer

Disliked

do you even know what he means when he says handle?.......until and unless you research about his theory and system..you cannot know what he means....a point he has made above!............................................also if you are talking about me ...i had set buys at 1.30617....30417........30217....29.....and currently i am long at 0617 ...and 0817............................a few pips can be here and there but the overall direction will always be spot on so if you are being stubborn like spready then i am afraid i will not respond again...

Ignored

As far as I am aware "Handle" is a chart area as defined by a price range and given the direct and subsequent use of this term "1.30130/1.29 handle", by LG himself, I assume this is the way he views it also.
Or was he being cryptic?, in which case its would be his own fault if he was misunderstood.
Good night...

Apr 28, 2013 4:56am

Quoting Trout

Disliked

. What about the article though?

Ignored

Jay, I like your writing style. You're very much like a novelist telling a story rather than a reporter attempting to "tell the facts."

I for one am of the "Bearish" camp now for many reasons:

1. I see history repeats itself time and time again
2. Too much uncertaintity remaining in the markets regarding CB's policies (i.e. will ECB FINALLY cut rates; ((yes))
3. People, like in your article, expect things to return to the pre-2008 levels when in fact 1990-2007 was THE anomaly
4. Many people feel that the excessive injection of money into the system by the FED and now JCB will begin an inflationary cycle but they neglect to account what your article pointed out that increased productivity brings down overhead - hence 100 commissions vs. 2.99 commissions.

The main point is that many of the little guys, such as myself, see the changes that have occurred and cannot justify the rise, no the LEAP, in the equity markets that has taken place for the past 2 years.

Fool me once, shame on you...fool me twice shame on me...fool me three times and I've proven myself worthy of a government job

Apr 28, 2013 5:08am

Quoting Trout

Disliked

Hi Spreadbetter,

There is nothing new about these markets, there akin to where the U.S. was in the 70's.

Ignored

Jay have you really looked at a chart of the equity markets in the 1970's and compared it to the 2010's? I would hardly say today's market is like the 1970's.

Quoting Trout

Disliked

And there is nothing new about people wanting to figure out how markets move to enrich themselves and instead end up failing, while others who know far less and have much more simple aspirations make enough to retire on simply by dollar cost averaging.

You misinterpreted me because there is most defintiely nothing new under the sun when it comes to market movement.

Ignored

I don't ever recall central banks stepping in and purchasing 85BILLION in bonds before? Greenspan et al., never did that to my knowledge.

Also energy was dirt cheap in the 80's through 00's; before hedge fund managers discovered how to make money in the commodities markets. Also how many computer traded funds were there back then?

Did you see what happened this past week with the fake AP tweet? Most people may 'brush that off' as an anomaly but someone discovered how to make a profit from hacking the AP feed.

No Jay, we are NOT going back to the Future and Jay you may have the same color hair as Doc Brown but thank goodness you go to a different stylist!.

As for your earlier comment about seeing if the seasonality of the sell in May and go away is true - well I've moved all my equity/retirement into a money market and Pimco bond fund two weeks ago - MY dollar cost averaging begins in ernest again in November.

Apr 29, 2013 4:56pm

Quoting Trout

Disliked

FXSport,
The mood is comparable to back then -- late 70's early 80's ...with people worried about every thing all the time, and the U.S. bailing out Mexico. Back then we did not have 401K's to shovel money into stocks like coal into an engine every 2 weeks of course, and % rates were so high stocks weren't even a choice. Those were much harder times for us Chicagoans than now by a stretch...

Ignored

I will still in school back then and I didn't have to worry about those things.

Apr 24, 2013 11:34pm

Quoting Guest

Disliked

'Why "So Many" Have A Bear Market Mindset In A Bull Market'

95% of traders lose money

Ignored

Is that an official statistic because that has been proven untrue. A lot do, but enough with the cliches.

The economic data is more than bear enough for me.

Apr 30, 2013 5:21am

With a communist propaganda voice: We are the top of the strongest market in recent years! There has never been a better time and place to buy than now! You are a low income factory worker? No worries! Buy NOW and see your wealth grow in the next years! Believe in yourself and in your country. The markets have no other place to go but higher! Buy now!

Apr 29, 2013 1:39am

Hi sir..

I don't get what you mean. do you mind to explain it? Since I know you, you never change your calls. you just said : it is more to upside to 33-34 above and now you said " downside is anticipated 515-800 points from 3042" is it miss type or not? Thankyou..

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

If I was not a longer-term trader I would be preparing to scalp a range of up 515 points down (though the full risk to the downside is more like 800 points) from the 1.30420 area. But that would be a waste of my time.

Ignored

Apr 29, 2013 3:49am

ooh I see.. thanks you made it clear,sir

actually, you don't confuse anyone, I just didn't get it. Cheers..

[quote=Loadedgun;6643906]Hi BNW - these are just musings (mark you) I am in no position to make a firm call at this point which I made clear above - because the Euro is in range in H4 so I am discussing the fluctuations that define the behavior of price in a range which is very unpredictable.

Apr 29, 2013 4:29am

Btw, LG, I sent you a message.. just read it when you are free. Cheers

[quote=Loadedgun;6643906]Hi BNW - these are just musings (mark you) I am in no position to make a firm call at this point which I made clear above - because the Euro is in range in H4 so I am discussing the fluctuations that define the behavior of price in a range which is very unpredictable.

Apr 30, 2013 4:10am

fun yet interesting debat.. finally you are back, LG. it is been a while.. it will be more fun with jonahkh and jaygee join here

btw, fx hilyer.. if im not wrong, his calls was 3340 to 3045.. amazing calls, as always..

Apr 30, 2013 4:56am

[quote=Fx Hiflyer;6646949]proabably..it was some time back ....but i do remember him saying 32 31 when it was 35 ..

haha.. I know, I remember almost every his calls.. he said euro go to 357x for so many times but nobody believe him ( included me by that time), in the middle of the uptrend he said it will retrace to 3050 and continue higher to 357x. and that happened. since that, I always follow his call and get nice return.. btw, nice to know you

Apr 26, 2013 6:32am

It's far better to be a realist and to accept that the overall global financial architecture is FUBAR but be optimistic wrt your ability to take money out of the market regardless. All the best traders I know are incredibly down to earth wrt trading, there isn't a bubble head optimist in sight.

Apr 29, 2013 2:56am

The recent revelation that central banks are complicit in the pump, by way of buying equities, is stunning. This is no bull market based on sound fundamentals, it's an out of control vehicle with no driver.

Quoting Yuri57

Disliked

Becouse stocks prices are driven mostly by the QE not real GDP growth. People see this and they are nervous. Remember what happend in 2011 when QE2 was over? It will happen again.

Ignored

Apr 29, 2013 1:01pm

Great article in the FT wrt HFT through our friends at ICAP (EBS), here's the link.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d5b42402-aea3-11e2-8316-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2Rss8zHHK

For those who don't have an FT account here's a summary from the BBC, EBS, part of ICAP, are looking to throttle HFT currency trading through their platforms..

High-frequency trading (HFT) in currencies could face "speed limits" in an attempt to create a fairer system.

HFT, where computer-driven deals are done in micro-seconds, has increasingly caught the attention of regulators.

Now a big player in the foreign exchange market, EBS, is to discuss with clients using its trading platform ways to slow things down.

Next week, EBS will begin discussions with foreign exchange clients about speed limits. One idea is to end the "fastest wins" rule and instead batch together a series of currency orders, and then deal with them in a random order.

A spokeswoman for the firm told the BBC that "it's all about creating a fairer marketplace in which clients do business".

The EBS spokeswoman said the firm had already introduced measures to slow currency trading, such as limiting the string of decimal points used to make fractional differences in buy and sell orders.

EBS and Thomson Reuters run the two dominant electronic currency trading platforms

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22342770

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

So 'algo' trading doesn't exist in the world of FX? Oh ffs please go and count your cattle back in or something you whopper. Here's a couple of contacts for you...one of them you could prop trade with if you get yourself fifty grand together, lifetime for you obviously, the other one well just forget that. Put it in the dream catcher on your hammock

http://www.kytegroup.com/links/algorithmicfxtrading/2

http://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/jpmorg...fixedincome/fx

Ignored

Apr 29, 2013 1:37pm

I believe several posters have suggested it to him, that's precisely why FF has a commercial beta section; for 'honest Joe's' to punt their ideas, if they work they'll get a commercial following if not they usually fade from view.

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

I agree, but I seriously doubt it will happen.
No charts, no entries on screen...

Ignored

Apr 30, 2013 1:58am

Of course, silly me. One issue that strikes me as odd on retail trading forums is this refusal to acknowledge that the FX world doesn't orbit around retail. Retail trading accounts for less than 10%, some putting it as low as 6% in terms of churn, there is this huge industry, the real FX industry, driving FX that most posters on FF seem blissfully unaware of.

I know many state "ignorance is bliss", but to not understand even the surface level of how this business really operates will imho, harm the prospects of retail traders.

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

You need to get up to speed, there is no such thing as HFT/algorithmic trading in FX ;-)

Ignored

Apr 30, 2013 3:45am

Calls generally work something like this; short, USD/JPY, fill at 9745, stop 30 pips, TP and take profit limit order at 9710.

No one clouds calls with wriggle room and guff. It should be as simple as a click to understand and or replicate.

Quoting Fx Hiflyer

Disliked

what is wrong with you ??...i assure you i have seen several calls for him......i'll tell you some too if you insist and you can go back and check too...............his long posts sound disturbing to you because you don't know what he is talking about..and his reasoning and reading is so complex i don't blame you for feeling lost ...but if you research about his style ..you might make some sense out of it.........i am sure he is laughing everytime he gets to hear ignorant crap ...i find it so funny..i wonder how pointless and funny they must be...

Ignored

Apr 30, 2013 4:02am

Why would anyone pay attention to, let alone remember this? No, that's not a call it's waffle.

Quoting Fx Hiflyer

Disliked

remember when he said market will move to 32 31 when it was on 35 ....then he posted that that the momentum is sustained now and when the market breaks .3324 (if i remember right) those who have not shorted already should sell it when it breaks this point.....do you know how many lots i sold ?..do you know how much i made?...the market didn't dare look back............ofcourse there is a element of risk always ..it's a bloody market

Ignored

Apr 30, 2013 4:14am

No don't go, start a calls thread on the main forum.

Quoting Loadedgun

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BTW I think we are playing into their hands - spreadbutter is trying to make everyone forget his gaff yesterday after all the boasting and posturing he came up with two crap adds for hft/crap algo not to mention the absurdity of his lame "markets trend 20% of the year and the rest of the time is in consolidation" (a moronic statement). I think this is my last comment here or even in FF for a long while - had my fun now back to the geometry of dynamic markets. Bye. bye

Ignored

Apr 30, 2013 4:20am

Really, can you point them out? You need to stop this. You're digging yourself a hole.

Quoting Fx Hiflyer

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talk about yourself...there were so many on this forum who traded that call that is why i mention it ....people were like thankyou loaded ..thankyou this thankyou that for a few days to follow

Ignored

Apr 30, 2013 4:23am

Yes I saw that exchange, which is why I posted up a link to a recent article on EBS potentially throttling HFT trading, presumably through their EBS Spot Ai platform.

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

On the contrary, once again you made a fool of yourself by failing to recognise trending and ranging periods and having no understanding of how algorithms and or HFT trading works in the forex market. You can attempt to row back and obsfucate but once again you proved yourself totally ignorant and out of your depth.

Ignored

Apr 30, 2013 6:55am

Excellent, so you called that one eh? Where's the link to the forum for us to scrutinise it?

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

A box of tricks is price - did you guys see the move? You got to know chaos to trade.

Ignored

Apr 30, 2013 7:12am

You appear to be very emotional, you'll never get to trade well whilst in that state. You also appear emotionally attached to a charlatan, it can be hard to break away, I should imagine it's akin to the weak willed being coerced into a cult. But in your cult there's only 3 members; you, Keith FX (lol) and walking eagle. Try and break free..seek help from cultbusters..

Quoting Fx Hiflyer

Disliked

who is vouching for you?..you have a problem reading.........he said .30417...low is 3.0532......what else do you want ?..did you want it to go exactly at to 30417 to shut up ?.....i rest my case too....enough said !

Ignored

Apr 30, 2013 7:17am

These days I only work off market orders with very tight MM using dynamic trailing stops. Yesterday good, 2.45% account growth, today was looking poor (down 0.55%) suddenly the day is over and into positive territory. 1% up.

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

ha ha, no sorry, just an open door to my little room in FF.

I hope it has not been to much of a disappointment, after all, I can't be expected to compete with the wild imagination of a deluded mind can I

Oh yes LG I saw the move, saw it yesterday actually, about 24 hrs before you
And Chaos had nothing to do with it you poor soul

Ignored

Apr 30, 2013 7:45am — Edited

IMHO one of the worst aspects of looking for short cuts and blindly following lost prophets, is the tendency to hold onto trades and ideas when the fail is obvious. I get the impression that walking eagle is not only scared to take a loss, any loss, but also then re-calibrates his nonsense for his audience (of 2) to justify his lame reasoning. Weird how lo-fly is picking up on his language.

On the subject of losses I've had 14 trades trigger over the past two sessions, with 8 winners equalling 1.5% gain. That's it for me now for the day.

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

And yet 1.30417 missed and now well and truly "out of site".
Best that many missed this "bearish" trade kindly handed to us all here on a platter no?

You simply fell into that one I'm afraid mate

lol...

Ignored

Apr 29, 2013 4:51pm

Title is "Why So Many Have A Bear Market Mindset In A Bull Market" and I agree with the guest quoting master Yoda for the path to the dark side.

In trading Fear leads to tight stops, Anger leads to maritngale, Hate leads to suffering(that remains unchanged).

Fear that the market is absolutely rigged and completely Fd up. I'm not saying the healthy side of fear(world's fate etc.) but the greedy fear of the speculator that he's gonna witness a 0-10000 flash crash and he won't be in heads south. There are valid reasons to be bearish on nearly ALL instruments in high TFs from both fundamental and technical so the majority of the market entities have a bear market mindset. The inevitable question is then WHY OH WHY there's a "bull market" instead of a doom?

What is the... Matrix? FY. What is the Fear! It is all around us etc etc everyday everywhere that's the constant info world gets and feeds back. People demand for news section forums to get all their fears out of their system by talking about them instead of rejecting the news and fundamentals as IT IS THE NAKED TRUTH: Fundamentals mixed with convenient technical were and still is DIRE preventing all to go long at any part of the move. How's that for a brainwashed and thus falsely biased mindset?

P.S. To the above add Fear that the uncontrolled is a random deity called the Market and you get the trader who found a way to convince a machine to flip the coin, in higher frequency, instead of him but he still gets 50%.

Apr 30, 2013 2:13am

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

Going down nicely are we not buddy - I mean FX Hiflyer certainly not squeeze hanging around still unsure what to do despite being handed down a trade on a platter - what a mess.

Ignored

lol...he likes talking about what drives the market.....not a clue as to where the market will be driven..........loaded i was feeling so lost in the morning after reading your message because i thought the market should explode up right away....i don't know how you read these pivots..thumbs up!....i thought i was getting good at reading the intra day range

Apr 30, 2013 3:46am

this is not a place for debate it is a place for exchanging trade ideas around trade events so people can make some money - get it?

do you want me to repeat what he said a zillion times for you to understand ?

Apr 30, 2013 3:50am

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

Calls generally work something like this; short, USD/JPY, fill at 9745, stop 30 pips, TP and take profit limit order at 9710.

Ignored

hahah it is not always that simple....it is math not magic.............and he has made calls even more precise than that

Apr 30, 2013 3:58am

remember when he said market will move to 32 31 when it was on 35 ....then he posted that that the momentum is sustained now and when the market breaks .3324 (if i remember right) those who have not shorted already should sell it when it breaks this point.....do you know how many lots i sold ?..do you know how much i made?...the market didn't dare look back............ofcourse there is a element of risk always ..it's a bloody market

Apr 30, 2013 4:08am

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

Yep, you are under his spell, I feel for you, I really do..

Ignored

i really don't think you should blame me for being under his spell.......i'll tell you atleast 5 10 examples more of precise calling which i remember and traded and then you can say that again

Apr 30, 2013 4:11am

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

Why would anyone pay attention to, let alone remember this? No, that's not a call it's waffle.

Ignored

talk about yourself...there were so many on this forum who traded that call that is why i mention it ....people were like thankyou loaded ..thankyou this thankyou that for a few days to follow

Apr 30, 2013 4:43am

Quoting blackNwhite

Disliked

fun yet interesting debat.. finally you are back, LG. it is been a while.. it will be more fun with jonahkh and jaygee join here btw, fx hilyer.. if im not wrong, his calls was 3340 to 3045.. amazing calls, as always..

Ignored

proabably..it was some time back ....but i do remember him saying 32 31 when it was 35 ...i made a few people i know locally go short too ....they still ask me what's your friend take right now......normally he can always tell you the wide ranges ....do you remember a few months back when he made a few calls on gold ...and also when he said the euro will bounce from 3024 if i remember right.........that was the day i got real freaked out because he gave almost the exact retracement ...i saved a friend's account that day ...he had a few shorts negative and i made him buy a few big lots by force...........you know where it ended? .37! (what he was talking about since very long and all of the people made fun of him..he kept on saying .35 ++ )......i have been observing silently since a very long time to know who to trust and who to ignore!

Apr 30, 2013 7:08am

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

lol...

Biggest load of crap ever heard

Swissy gong nicely too

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6647371

And all the while I thought you were waiting for a retrace to 1.30-29 area on the Euro??

lol..

Ignored

who is vouching for you?..you have a problem reading.........he said .30417...low is 3.0532......what else do you want ?..did you want it to go exactly at to 30417 to shut up ?.....i rest my case too....enough said !

Apr 30, 2013 7:29am

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

Oh I'm sorry Hiflyer, did I misread something

Ignored

loaded : Just woke up and from what I read price is still phased down in the lower time frames. Meaning the tendency is down to make the 500 - 800 points south (or more) to reach a Directional Change Fractal (DCF) in the lower time dimensions. This is a trade in its own right (i.e. the reaction down mentioned yesterday is still to manifest and for me until it does and we get strong support in that process I have not a HARD bounce).

Going down nicely are we not buddy - I mean FX Hiflyer certainly not squeeze hanging around still unsure what to do despite being handed down a trade on a platter - what a mess.

1.30417 doable and in in sight

Apr 30, 2013 7:52am

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

And yet 1.30417 missed and now well and truly "out of site".
Best that many missed this "bearish" trade kindly handed to us all here on a platter no?

You simply fell into that one I'm afraid mate

lol...

Ignored

do you even know what he means when he says handle?.......until and unless you research about his theory and system..you cannot know what he means....a point he has made above!............................................also if you are talking about me ...i had set buys at 1.30617....30417........30217....29.....and currently i am long at 0617 ...and 0817............................a few pips can be here and there but the overall direction will always be spot on so if you are being stubborn like spready then i am afraid i will not respond again ....

Apr 24, 2013 9:29pm

why ?

because many traders moving their mind from fundamental to technical.

to much opera from politican, about data... forecast nowaday not so accurate, if forecast are rocket.. it not missed 1meter from target but 1mile... so when release come, to much shock therapy.
thats why many traders choose the "the sure thing" to trade. well actually, nothing so sure at FX

. but candle stick are the only answers for it.

and at technical.. mindset cannot be change in 1 night and 1 second like fundamental way.. but through many indicator, many strategy, many management, many candlestick, and many TF.

so that's why, at bullish market many bear keep holding, and vice versa, at bearish market many bull keep hold too.

if we think this technical trader's problem.. no.. this is fundamental problem. more traders out from fundamental, thats mean more fundamental will unaccurate at future.

same problem for this article creator

am i rite ??

Apr 25, 2013 9:18am

Quoting Trout

Disliked

HI Redfx. I beleive technical and fundamentals are the same. The pattern is a reflection of the underlyiing fundamentals. What about the article though?

Ignored

hi

the article talk about... hmm why not read by your self sir ?

1 more opinion if this are ok..

i see only 2 reasson why this article are submitted, for education purpose or to change seller mindset. if for education purpose i think doesn't correct at fundamental category, and if for changing traders mindset i think not gonna working

why...?

like my previous comment

Apr 25, 2013 9:51am

yup i know sir

your article is good, but at wrong category i think, because your article so educational, but using sensational title. with try figuring Jimmy's problem to trader mindset.

well that's only my comment, hope ok for you

Apr 28, 2013 11:37pm — Edited

So, are we going to see 3330 on the EURO?
With Goldman Sucks publicly forecasting a rate cut...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6643396

Apr 28, 2013 11:50pm

just who is guest 186.196?

Apr 29, 2013 6:40am

20 to 12 here, off to bed...

Apr 29, 2013 2:00pm

Nice 100 or so pip range for entry and target.
So much for the "indisputable fact" of accuracy with +/- 1 pip...

Apr 30, 2013 4:49am

Quoting Fx Hiflyer

Disliked

lol

Ignored

Apr 30, 2013 7:41am

Quoting Fx Hiflyer

Disliked

loaded :
Going down nicely are we not buddy .

1.30417 doable and in in sight

What a mess

Ignored

Yes, what a bearish mess indeed

I mean "miss"

Apr 30, 2013 8:20am — Edited

Now look at post #52 in this thread.
I made the call yesterday complete with a link to my chart.
Sorry to dissapoint
And now that is finally settled, I can now go to bed (I hope)

Apr 29, 2013 2:19am

Becouse stocks prices are driven mostly by the QE not real GDP growth. People see this and they are nervous. Remember what happend in 2011 when QE2 was over? It will happen again.

Apr 29, 2013 12:18pm

i even went for a scalp today at 1.3040 with a tight stop ...wanted to hold it longer then but took 60 pips....lets see how it rolls

Apr 30, 2013 3:15am

i like to stay here in the news section where i started..it's fun

Apr 30, 2013 3:45am

this is not a place for debate it is a place for exchanging trade ideas around trade events so people can make some money - get it?

Apr 30, 2013 4:01am

i know what you are going to say .....reject it as if it never happened ..that is why i think you have an agenda spready ..you deny the facts

Apr 30, 2013 4:44am

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

Precisely, an objective of participating in this section (beyond trading)formally identified, well done.

Debate is fun isn't it

Ignored

lol

Apr 24, 2013 10:10pm

The market is going on different environmental changes, one set of people following certain environment, one set following another set environment who pull the rope strongly will get the result. Hence just to walk along with winner side is a best. If we admit certain environments either euro crisis or euro or japan .... you may miss crude fall or gold fall.

Apr 26, 2013 9:43am

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

It's far better to be a realist and to accept that the overall global financial architecture is FUBAR but be optimistic wrt your ability to take money out of the market regardless. All the best traders I know are incredibly down to earth wrt trading, there isn't a bubble head optimist in sight.

Ignored

HI Squeeze, I love life and it's hard not to be optimistic for me. But then again the global economy does not have that much impact on me per se -- though I w/d never bet against human progress. We are all guided by our believe system which can be anything we choose it to be regardless of environment.

Apr 26, 2013 12:13pm

Sorry Jay but if you think this is some sort of new normal paradigm then you need to go away and have a word with yerself...we've recently had the admission that central banks are purchasing equities to deliberately inflate the markets in order to 'protect' QE, JPM responsible for 97% of Comex gold sales, we've never experienced such rigging. Fine be a happy clappy optimist but blowing smoke up people's arses is just insulting, there's no growth, its an illusion and the markets are more dysfunctional now than at any time in recent history. Fine, take the money out of the markets, bank it then buy tangible assets, but a new normal paradigm it isn't, this is no bull market it's a bullshit market.

Quoting Trout

Disliked

HI Speadbetter,

Every 8 to 10 years the pessimist hit's it big...in between they get stuck carrying a warehouse full of copper thru a bear market

Ignored

Apr 26, 2013 1:36pm

Hi Spreadbetter,

My overall point is that it is a trader’s job to make money in up and down markets, regardless of the environment.

My brothers are all blue collar guys, who work hard, and are fascinated with how much their retirement savings are up because they just kept right on dollar cost averaging blue chip stocks over the decades. Now their closer to retirement so they moved a lot into cash. Luckily they are blue collar guys and far too busy to read financial blogs etc. cuz if they would have been reading what's been written on average the last 13 years they would have never kept right on buying in up and down markets.

There is nothing new about these markets, there akin to where the U.S. was in the 70's. And there is nothing new about people wanting to figure out how markets move to enrich themselves and instead end up failing, while others who know far less and have much more simple aspirations make enough to retire on simply by dollar cost averaging.

You misinterpreted me because there is most defintiely nothing new under the sun when it comes to market movement.

Apr 27, 2013 3:17am

This is new; in the USA due to zirp/tarp/qe/qe to infinity/bailouts/rescues/hft/...we're in unchatered territory.

Quoting Trout

Disliked

Hi Spreadbetter,

My overall point is that it is a trader’s job to make money in up and down markets, regardless of the environment.

My brothers are all blue collar guys, who work hard, and are fascinated with how much their retirement savings are up because they just kept right on dollar cost averaging blue chip stocks over the decades. Now their closer to retirement so they moved a lot into cash. Luckily they are blue collar guys and far too busy to read financial blogs etc. cuz if they would have been reading what's been written on average...

Ignored

Apr 27, 2013 9:32am

And according to Bloomberg and Reuters the positive equities market is due to good earnings, and Enron style accounting obviously, but that last bit's never mentioned.

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

Lol.. always good for a laugh.

I agree 100 percent, it's a bullshit market and to see that fucking clown Lou Dobs (I hate that guy) trying to take on Peter Schiff claiming his pessimistic attitude is a symptom of a creative imagination was a joke.

We're making new highs he says, we are consolidating he says, its all ok, Peter doesn't know what he's talking about he says.

Well he made clowns of a hell of a lot of scoffing media economist A-holes who thought he was nuts for a negative housing outlook, '08 was where we would turn the corner...

Ignored

Apr 27, 2013 10:17am

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

Lol.. always good for a laugh.

it's a bullshit market and to see that fucking clown Lou Dobs (I hate that guy) trying to take on Peter Schiff claiming his pessimistic attitude is a symptom of a creative imagination was a joke.

Ignored

Do not care much for what you guys are discussing (does not affect the price of fish for all I know) but completely agree with your feelings on that Lou Dobs proposition - thought he was retired. Never watch CNN anymore since I discovered Aljazeera to be the best network on earth. Cheers

Apr 27, 2013 5:35pm

"We’re still thinking about how so many smart people came to believe things that aren’t true. Krugman, Stiglitz, Friedman, Bernanke — all seem to have a simpleton’s view of how the world works. They believe they can manipulate the future and make it better. Not just for themselves, but for everyone. Where did such a silly idea come from?"

http://dailyreckoning.com/why-central-planning-fails/

Apr 28, 2013 2:11am

Wtf, why lump Joseph Stiglitz in there? A more reasoned iconoclast you'd struggle to find.

Quoting Slim Buffett

Disliked

"We’re still thinking about how so many smart people came to believe things that aren’t true. Krugman, Stiglitz, Friedman, Bernanke — all seem to have a simpleton’s view of how the world works. They believe they can manipulate the future and make it better. Not just for themselves, but for everyone. Where did such a silly idea come from?"

http://dailyreckoning.com/why-central-planning-fails/

Ignored

Apr 28, 2013 1:40pm — Edited

Quoting Guest

Disliked

Mr Loadedgun , I trade with EW and fibo only. I think euro will go to 2850 to complete the cycle before turning high to 32xx. what do you think? thanks before

Ignored

Well an interesting proposition you have and frankly speaking the system of pivots by weekend (in H4 my control trade frame of choice) leave it a possibility. My sense is that things are not cut and dry at this point since we have a flat market in H4 right now and there is no telling what is on the cards with respect to whether or not the current H4 down pivot will hold except to say the unit itself (MN) is set for a major downtrend which we should see from 1.33/34 (meaning I think we will see more upside than downside near term). Of course I think EW is too imprecise and dated for me to take seriously and I use more recent notions of wave theory where wave or flow structure forms any part of my considerations (i.e., fractal wave theory which as you might know employs fractal primitives of which there are only four forms making up the entire fractal wave matrix and which completely describe flow structures in far more precise and usable forms than EW in my opinion). It may be that you are right in the supposition that 1.29546 is not a Directional Change Fractal (DCF). However, if I see any pivot in play on or after open in the range 1.29884 - 1.29546 at this point I shall be inclined to enter long for the medium-term (i.e. target 1.33/34) but then again I am unconstrained by the heuristics common in technical analysis (since I do not trade technicals - including EW and harmonics, etc) and certainly I consider fundamentals to be pure voodoo (much like reading the entrails of dead animals to tell the future) - fit only for the superstitious among us (and they are legion). Anyhow best of the trades - I could always be wrong and you right at least in this specific case.

Cheers and good luck.

BTW: Is it not curious how the market can leave everyone guessing what is to follow despite furious gyrations all week? Very interesting (though that just proves we were/are, like I said, in a flat market in a strategically important time dimension (H4) - so the real move is still ahead in time). What I do mostly in such cases is to wait and watch for the first key countertrend pivot (H4 or >) of the new week to decide (or a crossover to confirm the existing H4 pivot). This is what I am suggesting above. This is because wave theory is (in my understanding) not much of a help where the market type clearly indicates flat flows (destructive wave interference in the lower frequency waves if you subscribe to the more modern sinusoidal notions of wave structures I use). What forms an important consideration for me in such cases is the subsequent system of pivots that leads to the trend that must follow. Hope you understand my reasoning.

Apr 28, 2013 2:26pm

Curious opening not much in it by way of a firm statement - I will assume we are still in range in H4 with the immediate bias to the upside but will not jump into any trades just yet and Mr Guest (why not join up?) may still be on track - though I have my reservations - but pivots define the very fractals we trade and of course one must wait to read them accurately before a firm call at this point. Best of the trades to all.

Apr 28, 2013 4:15pm

Quoting Spreadbetter

Disliked

A more reasoned iconoclast

Ignored

A "reasoned iconoclast". Please feel free to elaborate.

"People who engage in or support iconoclasm are called "iconoclasts", a term that has come to be applied figuratively to any individual who challenges established dogma or conventions. Conversely, people who revere or venerate religious images are (by iconoclasts) called "iconolaters". In a Byzantine context, they are known as "iconodules", or "iconophiles"."

Please DO elaborate .

Apr 28, 2013 5:15pm

wow...well it certainly is true that we all trade - or at least talk -- our belief system. regardless of having seen much tougher times all the way around, that still makes no difference re: anyone's ability to to step up and make thier daily bread in the market right here right now.

My point is whatever the bear or bull's beef is, it should not impede them from making money tonight or tomorrow, or the next day.

If current policies or events have rendered your methods useless, I feel for you, but no more so than I'm sure you would have felt for me back when I had to relearn things when the old trading floor dried up. We all should have no problem taking the bears money on the way up and the bulls money on the way down.

Apr 28, 2013 7:12pm

FXSport,
The mood is comparable to back then -- late 70's early 80's ...with people worried about every thing all the time, and the U.S. bailing out Mexico. Back then we did not have 401K's to shovel money into stocks like coal into an engine every 2 weeks of course, and % rates were so high stocks weren't even a choice. Those were much harder times for us Chicagoans than now by a stretch...

Apr 28, 2013 11:39pm — Edited

Quoting Guest

Disliked

Mr Loadedgun, I used to think EW is the most precise method - compare to indicators like stoch, MA, etc. But your math calculation appealed me to learn more. you have given a big contribution here by telling your theory but you are not very active in recent months. I just want to tell you that it will be grateful for those who are seeking the truth of reading market if you are willing to be more active again. and I should not forget to thank you for clear explanation you have in your reply, I agree that it is still in range. this sideways moves...

Ignored

Cheers mate - thing is the more effective my method has become (i.e. the more I have understood the market model) the less time I have had to come around here (FF does take up a lot of time if you are serious about contributing and learning from others). I also have a big league type opportunity just unfolding so unfortunately I think I will be around less and less. But it has been fun here and like I like to say most of what I know about the market I picked up the leads right here on FF (and researched the tools I use here as well). This is the place with the greatest amount of knowledge on display (not this news section per se and certainly not with the likes of spreadbutter around - but FF as whole - much like TSD in programming). But it is also the place with the greatest amount of ignorance on display (particularly the news section) - which is still useful since you can tell when you have graduated from ignorant to the level of a reputable trader. I was pretty much a newbie when I started out here. Feels good to be sure of ones self now after all this time. But thanks and Cheers and do keep it up.

BTW: If EW works for you and you have no better alternatives that is fine. All I meant to imply is that for me with an alternative I tend to discount it. But it is based on chaos theory (as with the work of almost all the past masters we know). But at the time and due to the lack of computers much was not known. But things have changed and chaos is better understood now that more more chaotic systems can be modeled and studied.But clearly it has far more going for it than the indicators you mentioned and on that there is no doubt.

Apr 29, 2013 12:54am — Edited

By my calculations we are about now in a reaction range in the lower time frames M1 - M30 (reaction that is to the upside bias of which I spoke above when the market opened). I do not see us doing more than 30 pips (if at all) to the upside before that happens (i.e. a reaction to the downside is anticipated at this stage). So we wait to see if that implies a trend. If I was not a longer-term trader I would be preparing to scalp a range of up 515 points down (though the full risk to the downside is more like 800 points) from the 1.30420 area. But that would be a waste of my time.

Apr 29, 2013 1:15am

Notice my absolute dismissal of the news and fund- a - mental (delusional) logic in all of this while still able to assess short and long-term prospects accurately. Which is why fund- a - mental theory is such crap. That is quite apart from the fact that this is a mean reverting market underpinned by a market clearing model (a micro concept in economics NOT a macro theory). Just to point out that the application of fund - a - mental thinking here is a misapplication of discipline and therefore painfully ignorant. What a laugh.

Apr 29, 2013 3:11am — Edited

Quoting blackNwhite

Disliked

Hi sir..

I don't get what you mean. do you mind to explain it? Since I know you, you never change your calls. you just said : it is more to upside to 33-34 above and now you said " downside is anticipated 515-800 points from 3042" is it miss type or not? Thankyou..

Ignored

Hi BNW - these are just musings (mark you) I am in no position to make a firm call at this point which I made clear above - because the Euro is in range in H4 so I am discussing the fluctuations that define the behavior of price in a range which is very unpredictable. What is going on right now is that the overall upside which I predicted is in the process of being established and thus we see these ups and downs. The tendency (technically speaking - by which I mean mathematically speaking) is for convergences (or constructive wave interference) to occur across various frequencies (higher frequency waves) in a range (think of various small duration MA's bunching up in an extremely tight range) to establish bias on one side of the market during this ranging process and then a pitch to the opposite side (a pivot or head fake) which then will confirm the bias and form a good entry to ride the move (before which it is too dicey to make a call).

My advice is if what I am saying at this point is not clear just ignore it for now. When I have the confirmation required I will say which side a tradable (by my methods) trend is and you will see that price will follow exactly. I was addressing myself to the Mr Guest whom I assume is familiar with wave theory enough to appreciate what I am saying. I will stop here not to confuse anyone and if at all make simple calls. The truth is price can play either way and I do not know which way yet would be a tradable play by my methods so observe that I am not in a trade myself.

Overall, range is difficult to trade for most even very experienced traders and it is best to keep out of trades until we have a break either side of the market - I believe that the more likely direction in the medium term is to 1.33/34 but we do not have a confirmation yet (and I could be wrong in terms of timing hence I am on the sidelines). If you read more carefully the posts between me and Mr guest from the start you might get a sense of what I am saying. But there is at all no contradiction in what I am describing and 515 and 800 points are probable not firm estimates but the general behavior described should form an interesting guide to keen observers. But do not worry this also will be made very clear if you get my meaning. Cheers

Apr 29, 2013 5:57am — Edited

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

The recent revelation that central banks are complicit in the pump, by way of buying equities, is stunning. This is no bull market based on sound fundamentals, it's an out of control vehicle with no driver.

Ignored

Lets get this straight - it is a supposition always that anyone can tell what discrete factor drives a market. The job of a trader is to device a method that allows him to trade the market profitably regardless. If what drives a market is that deducible we would all be billionaires first trade. The market is the market - it aggregates the sum of all sentiments to define price over time according to an algo. The job of a trader is to craft a means that reads that algo correctly nearly every time. So all this sound of funny "fury" coming from market minions mean nothing - and especially when it is known that those who concern themselves with these types of discussions are usually folks without a clue trying to find company among fellow unfortunates to lean on. So you may guess at the response to some discrete event and be right sometimes but that does not mean that such events define the market over any period of time. What you need is the ability to read the fractal structure of electronically traded markets and interpret the algos that define movement across time frames over time. Anything else is speculative gibberish. I hope that helps your understanding since clearly you appear somewhat confused and might be new to this business. Thanks in advance.

Apr 29, 2013 11:42am

Here is a true algo we have a signal to trend up (5% risk of failure) - but on a bounce around the daily average - so watch out for just that later tonight early tomorrow (London may be). In effect see a bounce around 1.30130/1.29 handle go for it (but please confirm you have a hard bounce and since it will go some distance no need to jump into a trade when you are not sure you have a bounce entering even at 1.31 will still give you some nice returns so use M5 on a 50 LB double VB scale to read the movements trading only when you have price in the speed lane across TF's M1 to H4) - 1.33/34 is your target area but be ready to scramble trade in that zone since I expect a super strong reaction down from that point on by my calculations. Good luck and kick ass when people like spreadbutter here try to push junk around you. Cheers

Apr 29, 2013 12:05pm

BTW I am trading the move too - so if I am wrong (5% chance) it will be our loss. I like tight stops - better to enter more than once if volatility cuts out initial attempt than bet the farm. The key is a bounce and there we are all on our own.

Apr 29, 2013 12:06pm — Edited

BTW I am trading the move too - so if I am wrong (5% chance) it will be our loss. I like tight stops - better to enter more than once if volatility cuts out initial attempt than bet the farm first time in (like all things flows mature and at inception care is needed). The key is a bounce and there we are all on our own.

PS: The other thing is if this is as strong as one has read it price could refuse to touch down around the daily average and shoot for 1.32 before retrace so if price breaks above 1.31500 I am going in anyway with a stop at 1.30765. Untidy but no one ever said it had to be neat (the risk then is higher) but I am prepared to take a loss at the stated level if things unravel.

Apr 29, 2013 12:24pm

Scalp for 50 pips? Do you and your mentor know what scalping is? <shakes head>

Quoting Fx Hiflyer

Disliked

i even went for a scalp today at 1.3040 with a tight stop ...wanted to hold it longer then but took 60 pips....lets see how it rolls

Ignored

Apr 29, 2013 1:20pm

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

Curious opening not much in it by way of a firm statement - I will assume we are still in range in H4 with the immediate bias to the upside but will not jump into any trades just yet and Mr Guest (why not join up?) may still be on track - though I have my reservations - but pivots define the very fractals we trade and of course one must wait to read them accurately before a firm call at this point. Best of the trades to all.

Ignored

Hi There Loaded Gun

I have been a sit on the fence browser of FF for over a year now. my trading experience only dates back to 2 1/2 years. im always interested in adding to my trading armory so to speak. ive seen you mention on a few occasions about choas. my current strategy is based solely on chaos theory. i have read and applied (trading choas second edition) but would be interested in any further advice you could give with developing this further.

Regards
keith

Apr 29, 2013 2:40pm

You need to get up to speed, there is no such thing as HFT/algorithmic trading in FX ;-)

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

Great article in the FT wrt HFT through our friends at ICAP (EBS), here's the link.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d5b42402-a...#axzz2Rss8zHHK

For those who don't have an FT account here's a summary from the BBC, EBS, part of ICAP, are looking to throttle HFT currency trading through their platforms..

High-frequency trading (HFT) in currencies could face "speed limits" in an attempt to create a fairer system.

HFT, where computer-driven deals are done in micro-seconds, has increasingly caught the attention...

Ignored

Apr 29, 2013 3:40pm

Quoting Keith FX

Disliked

Hi There Loaded Gun

I have been a sit on the fence browser of FF for over a year now. my trading experience only dates back to 2 1/2 years. im always interested in adding to my trading armory so to speak. ive seen you mention on a few occasions about choas. my current strategy is based solely on chaos theory. i have read and applied (trading choas second edition) but would be interested in any further advice you could give with developing this further.

Regards
keith

Ignored

Hey Keith will be in touch I am so tired just now - it is pretty late here need some rest to see if one can find a nice entry point up in the morning. Just keep in mind my notion of chaos is purely mathematical and has nothing to do with how Bill Williams understands it. I subscribe to no written book on the subject insofar as it applies to trading - as in fact I have seen none but will try to reach you with more precise details. Cheers

Apr 29, 2013 10:17pm — Edited

Be reminded - we are trading up from a setup that has price in the positive speed lanes across the left-hand of the feed i.e. M1 - H4 (in the overall context of a 50 LB VB setup). Where the opposite is the case (PA is in the negative speed lane across the left-hand) price is moving down which is not inconsistent with the call made just a matter of timing and on finding firm support will react up to complete the cycle. I am concerned because only one friend among the friends who appear to trade some of my calls have seen how I model the markets in detail and given that no move is a straight line there is the risk to some in managing the basic pivoting that will take place before we have momentum in direction (MID).

Just woke up and from what I read price is still phased down in the lower time frames. Meaning the tendency is down to make the 500 - 800 points south (or more) to reach a Directional Change Fractal (DCF) in the lower time dimensions. This is a trade in its own right (i.e. the reaction down mentioned yesterday is still to manifest and for me until it does and we get strong support in that process I have not a HARD bounce).

Trade with care for those friends that follow any calls I make. Best of luck

Apr 29, 2013 10:42pm

Hey buddy it don't matter none what these guys say now - after the HFT/Algo ...."our friends at ICPT", FT aritcles and the works spreadbutter = MIMA = Jaygee = RIP for me. Really they can all be safely ignored. He gat nuthing.

Apr 30, 2013 2:10am

1.30417 doable and in in sight. To spreadbutter (alias squeeze) on retail accounting for 10% - so what? The issue is direction not what share of the market retail has or has not - if you know direction does it matter what sector you trade? If you do not know direction - will the sector you trade change that? For instance we in retail gave you a trade ongoing since yesterday of which you had not a clue and lots of your HFT (mumbo jumbo) "friends" are out on a limb still trying to work out the fund-a-mental theory of it all how silly. We are making money (and did not exclude you from the our analysis and hot info on price dynamics) and you still got the guts to come around and talk like you know something? What a mess.

Frankly, you are deluded spreadbutter to think anyone will take you seriously after this hft/algo crap you put out yesterday. On your knees begging the community for forgiveness given your posturing and lying. What a mess - thanks in advance.

Apr 30, 2013 2:17am

To state that HFT doesn't exist in the realm of FX trading is just one more error on the extremely long roll of shame.

Quoting Squeeze

Disliked

Of course, silly me. One issue that strikes me as odd on retail trading forums is this refusal to acknowledge that the FX world doesn't orbit around retail. Retail trading accounts for less than 10%, some putting it as low as 6% in terms of churn, there is this huge industry, the real FX industry, driving FX that most posters on FF seem blissfully unaware of.

I know many state "ignorance is bliss", but to not understand even the surface level of how this business really operates will imho, harm the prospects of retail traders.

Ignored

Apr 30, 2013 3:10am

If I recall I suggested a year back that traders should carefully consider their positions with Cyprus brokers, and emphased that point wrt the downgrades by ratings agencies. Is that the thread to which you refer? Do you imagine that posters post in order to create a long thread rather than simply inform?

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

News Flash - spreadbutter once ran a thread in the main section - poor attendance, a general lack of interest and zero utility killed it. Now he seeks attention to hatch his hft/algo sales pitch more directly but first he needs to debate us silly before he proves that hfts/algos have the sort of clues we need to trade - what a mess. Thanks in advance.

BTW: That news flash might move the market. What do you say spreadbutter you are the expert on what moves the market and how to debate such crap.

Ignored

Apr 30, 2013 3:58am

No it really is as simple as that. You make a trade call and traders follow it to gauge how successful he is. Even 50:50 can be very profitable if the MM is sound. Everything else surrounding the decision making can come later.

Quoting Fx Hiflyer

Disliked

hahah it is not always that simple....it is math not magic.............and he has made calls even more precise than that

Ignored

Apr 30, 2013 4:17am

On the contrary, once again you made a fool of yourself by failing to recognise trending and ranging periods and having no understanding of how algorithms and or HFT trading works in the forex market. You can attempt to row back and obsfucate but once again you proved yourself totally ignorant and out of your depth.

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

BTW I think we are playing into their hands - spreadbutter is trying to make everyone forget his gaff yesterday after all the boasting and posturing he came up with two crap adds for hft/crap algo not to mention the absurdity of his lame "markets trend 20% of the year and the rest of the time is in consolidation" (a moronic statement). I think this is my last comment here or even in FF for a long while - had my fun now back to the geometry of dynamic markets. Bye. bye

Ignored

Apr 30, 2013 7:05am

Maybe there's something in this chaos theory, (trading noise in a range), you have to be chaotic to see it?

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

lol...

Biggest load of crap ever heard

Swissy gong nicely too

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6647371

And all the while I thought you were waiting for a retrace to 1.30-29 area on the Euro??

lol..

Ignored

Apr 30, 2013 7:20am

Lol, no you appear to be very systematic, if it works don't be tempted to break it, you need a significant sample for the probabilities to work in your favour :-)

Quoting Ill-b-back

Disliked

Hey man what are you saying?, I saw this shit yesterday when I placed the trade, so I'm chaotic huh?, huh?

Better watch your mouth there spreadbetter or I'll fetch my friend "Deluded Gun" on to you, you hear

lol...

Ignored

Apr 30, 2013 8:12am — Edited

Start your thread on the main forum, go on, I'm sure most of us could do with some more light entertainment. It'll be fun watching you explode.

Just an observation but you seem to imagine that you have an audience, whereas I'm convinced that no one reads your posts, I only skim them given they're full of the same repetition there's little point in reading them fully. But if you are about to "teach more lessons" than where better to start than on your own thread in the beta commercial section.

I'm sorry to say this but the more you avoid it, preferring to take refuge in your random words, then the more you'll concrete your reputation as a total waffler. You continue to paint yourself into a corner and then spit your dummy out. Prove your theories, you never know you might actually get a few subscribers.

Due to your absence I decided I'd give an amnesty to all on my ignore list, as a gaggle they disappeared with you, hardly surprising...

Now you're reaching a dead end, you've nowhere left to go. I doubt if anyone takes you seriously, given your manic ramblings, but you have a chance, one final chance at redemption by proving yourself on your own thread in which you can take ownership. I'm afraid (for you) that if you can't do that it simply underscores your well earned reputation as a charlatan. Your choice

Apr 25, 2013 9:10pm

thats easy! when you read too much zerohedge!

Apr 24, 2013 9:31pm

Because we are at the turning point to bear market ... that's all

Apr 25, 2013 4:31am

HI Redfx. I beleive technical and fundamentals are the same. The pattern is a reflection of the underlyiing fundamentals. What about the article though?

Apr 25, 2013 4:33am

HI Krisware,
If we see a U.S. Dollar rally then we sure could see some bearish stock market activity.

Hi Abaskar74,
Well said. I agree w/ your observations.

Trader#2D81

Apr 25, 2013 4:53am

More then 2/3's of the economy is driven by the consumer. The consumer is still heavily weighed down by excessive debt.
The recently graduated college students are drowning in student loans with weak job prospects. They cannot even consider becoming first home buyers with all that entails for consumption. New households are simply not happening.
The stock market is floating upon a sea of Fed liquidity. Earnings per share rise because of corporate stock buybacks.

Baby boomers are approaching retirement, have no savings and are for once in their lives facing the practical side of life. Opening up the credit spending binge again is not an option.

This situation does not add up to a Bull market that will continue for years going forward.

Apr 25, 2013 5:04am

Quoting Guest

Disliked

Why bear mindset? Because fear is the path to the dark side.

Ignored

That is true. Old saying: "Pessimists don't make money on Wall Street".

Apr 25, 2013 5:06am

Hi Pip Anon,
Bull markets often don't correct till the last bear is dead....

Trader#2D81

Apr 25, 2013 5:32am

Time will tell if it is contented Bulls in the pasture or Lemmings towards a cliff.
Would prefer to see the USD rally along with the Dow, which would be a confirmation of real growth and a rising economy.

Apr 25, 2013 9:36am

Redfx,
I'm the author of the article.

Apr 25, 2013 11:06am

Gtf, they make it all Jay, keep the glass 51% full, cynically optimistic ;-)

Quoting Trout

Disliked

That is true. Old saying: "Pessimists don't make money on Wall Street".

Ignored

Apr 25, 2013 7:47pm

HI Speadbetter,

Every 8 to 10 years the pessimist hit's it big...in between they get stuck carrying a warehouse full of copper thru a bear market

Apr 25, 2013 7:51pm

Hi Guest 160.145,
I c/d be wrong but I still see dollar strength as supportive of a stock market correction. FYI I"m a trader so I'm not shy about fading my self if price tells me to.

Trader#2D81

Apr 26, 2013 6:44am

Quoting Trout

Disliked

Hi Guest 160.145,
I c/d be wrong but I still see dollar strength as supportive of a stock market correction. FYI I"m a trader so I'm not shy about fading my self if price tells me to.

Ignored

hello Trout
The reason behind my thought on wishing to see a rising USD as confirmation for the equity Bull is as follows. My view is that the US recovery has been bought by tremendous intervention by the Fed and the US government into the market.
Although every nation has the right to pursue its own economic policy the result in practice is that the differing policies applications between the majors has resulted in defacto Beggar thy neighbor results.

Collectivists would opine that what benefits one benefits the Globe. Things such as the 27% unemployment in Spain would counter that opinion in the real world as opposed the theoretical.

For the US Bull to be able to stand upon its own legs (strengthening currency) and not at the expense of others would be the desired confirmation still waiting to be seen.

thanks

Apr 26, 2013 9:36am

I see your reasoning Guest 160.145, a thesis for me can be a handicap. I do best w/ base observations

Trader#2D81

Apr 26, 2013 10:24am

Trout,
Base observation works.
For instance as a reminder as to what is the probability trade for Fridays, on my charts i have in big text, Friday is dump the USD day
Still, without my USD confirmation am trading this as a Bear market rally in equities.

Up or down, traders will make money.
Have a fine weekend

Apr 27, 2013 12:53pm

always interesting times -- and looking forward to seeing if May brings us the usual seasonal up-turn in the Greenback and down-turn in stocks and currencies...

Trader#3ED9

Apr 27, 2013 10:23pm

[quote=Ill-b-back;6641698]
I agree 100 percent, it's a bullshit market and to see that fucking clown Lou Dobs (I hate that guy) trying to take on Peter Schiff claiming his pessimistic attitude is a symptom of a creative imagination was a joke.
quote] haha its a bullshit market alright, what are we going to see next?
Central banks buying shares and manipulating the stock markets as well as the cyrrency markets?....

Apr 28, 2013 5:52pm

thank you Ill-b-back. I had on my analyst hat -- open minded -- when I wrote it, and now I have my trader hat back on -- somewhat intolerant. Namaste

Trader#1E96

Apr 28, 2013 9:07pm

Mr Loadedgun, I used to think EW is the most precise method - compare to indicators like stoch, MA, etc. But your math calculation appealed me to learn more. you have given a big contribution here by telling your theory but you are not very active in recent months. I just want to tell you that it will be grateful for those who are seeking the truth of reading market if you are willing to be more active again. and I should not forget to thank you for clear explanation you have in your reply, I agree that it is still in range. this sideways moves are torture and leave too much probability - whether it will make a new low to complete wave B or the low is already in. But i think we will get a clearer picture this week. thanks mate

Quoting Loadedgun

Disliked

Curious opening not much in it by way of a firm statement - I will assume we are still in range in H4 with the immediate bias to the upside but will not jump into any trades just yet and Mr Guest (why not join up?) may still be on track - though I have my reservations - but pivots define the very fractals we trade and of course one must wait to read them accurately before a firm call at this point. Best of the trades to all.

Ignored

Apr 29, 2013 1:32am

i'm bear trust in bear

Apr 29, 2013 3:36pm

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=424897#post6645365 here is all you need to know about HFT's in forex - for anybody curious.

Apr 29, 2013 9:58pm

For those who think this is new, special or can't happen again, one word: Rome.

Apr 30, 2013 6:53am

A box of tricks is price - did you guys see the move? You got to know chaos to trade.

Apr 30, 2013 7:00am

I rest my case. RIP

Trader#A897

Apr 24, 2013 10:25pm

'Why "So Many" Have A Bear Market Mindset In A Bull Market'

95% of traders lose money

Trader#A31F

Apr 24, 2013 11:10pm

Why bear mindset? Because fear is the path to the dark side.

Trader#1E96

Apr 27, 2013 10:24am

Mr Loadedgun , I trade with EW and fibo only. I think euro will go to 2850 to complete the cycle before turning high to 32xx. what do you think? thanks before

Trader#F1A3

Apr 27, 2013 11:26pm

Ah how funny the responses by the naive. Opinions are like a-holes, everyone has one and the market doesn't give a rats what you think. Great article Jay.

Story Stats

Apr 24, 2013 8:51pm
Posted by
Trout

Fundamental Analysis

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