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B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

  • #5,541
  • Apr 26, 2013 10:06am Apr 26, 2013 10:06am
Quoting felixrod76
{quote} Yes I was talking about that area in orange (bottom). I had it set up as a PO long. It ended up breaking it. Was it not a good level? Now there is a newer low which you pointed out in the previous chart but, before that it was a nice base.
chart
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #5,542
  • Apr 26, 2013 10:07am Apr 26, 2013 10:07am
Hi all

Would like to seek for some clarification from the seniors here on GBPJPY.:

1) In the H4 chart below, the demand level has been slightly "broken". Would you still go long with a buy order?

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2) In the H1 chart below, would you go long when the price comes back to the demand area, given that the supply/demand levels have been broken through many times, as shown in the chart?

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  • #5,543
  • Apr 26, 2013 10:14am Apr 26, 2013 10:14am
Quoting ranger79
Hi all Would like to seek for some clarification from the seniors here on GBPJPY.: 1) In the H4 chart below, the demand level has been slightly "broken". Would you still go long with a buy order? {image} 2) In the H1 chart below, would you go long when the price comes back to the demand area, given that the supply/demand levels have been broken through many times, as shown in the chart? {image}

I would looking at the 1hr and the higher high, it may even struggle to get back down that far. before going higher. so when it does get back there I would be interested . but not sure I would use a limit or PO (pending Order) But I rarely use them anyway. . I like using Price action and look for price to stop and start it's reverse then enter. because if your levels are good price can turn a bit before them and if it is a second or third touch it can go into your level a good ways. Hope this helps I know not real clear or straight forward.
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #5,544
  • Apr 26, 2013 10:50am Apr 26, 2013 10:50am
Thanks Ken. I do have another question though. You say to be looking for longs on the top half of the screen and shorts on the bottom half of the screen, correct? That works for the most part. Ok. Here's the dumb question. Aren't we supposed to be shorting the highs and going long on the lows? I'm just trying to wrap my head around these details cause it seems to contradict what Sam talks about. Go long where the majority of retail sellers are going to be (lows) and short where the majority of the retail buyers are gonna buy (highs). Thanks again.
Felix R
  • #5,545
  • Apr 26, 2013 11:11am Apr 26, 2013 11:11am
Quoting felixrod76
Thanks Ken. I do have another question though. You say to be looking for longs on the top half of the screen and shorts on the bottom half of the screen, correct? That works for the most part. Ok. Here's the dumb question. Aren't we supposed to be shorting the highs and going long on the lows? I'm just trying to wrap my head around these details cause it seems to contradict what Sam talks about. Go long where the majority of retail sellers are going to be (lows) and short where the majority of the retail buyers are gonna buy (highs). Thanks again....

Yes but it is a major move that moves from the top of your screen into the bottom , plus it is the majority of price movement. Just think about a fib retracement as your guide. Plus price makes many swings that can barely make higher high or lower lows. It only takes a minute to scan back on your charts and see what i am talking about .

You need to prove all this stuff to yourselves anyway. Why I don't answer many questions about is my level good. It will show you in time.

I will try and post a example later . have to run out, here is a couple of scalps I just took on a/j 16 on a long and 22 on the short.
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #5,546
  • Apr 26, 2013 2:31pm Apr 26, 2013 2:31pm
Hi Kenneth,

I am new to the forex universe. I have been looking at various trading strategies that's out there (quite a lot). I've toyed with PA, S/R, breakouts, etc.

One of the things that been making more sense to me is the supply and demand areas and I am trying to get better educated in this topic.

I just went through your BS Trading pdf file and I just wanted to say thanks for your explanation in defining these zones. Hopefully with practice I can increase my probabilities in picking the right entries and the right direction.

Happy trading and have a great weekend!

Jim
  • #5,547
  • Apr 26, 2013 4:26pm Apr 26, 2013 4:26pm
Quoting Kenneth Lee
chart {image}
Hello Ken:

Great trade on the EURUSD.

Can you tell me what triggered the trade you're showing on the 30 min chart. Was it just a FTB trade when it hit a level or were you also looking at ltfs for more pa confirmation ?

Thanks

Borg.
May the Forex be with you.
  • #5,548
  • Apr 26, 2013 4:45pm Apr 26, 2013 4:45pm
Quoting Borg
{quote} Hello Ken: Great trade on the EURUSD. Can you tell me what triggered the trade you're showing on the 30 min chart. Was it just a FTB trade when it hit a level or were you also looking at ltfs for more pa confirmation ? Thanks Borg.

FTB ????

I entered because of the levels on the chart i posted. I thought I had missed it but it pulled back up to 1.3035 and I got in..
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #5,549
  • Apr 26, 2013 10:32pm Apr 26, 2013 10:32pm
Quoting Borg
{quote} Hello TraderinSD: Congrats on your trade. It looks pretty scary to me. I assume you had a buy limit and sell stop pending order before price reached the blue box. Can you tell me what it was ? Also in the green box I drew, was there an earlier opportunity for a buy entry there ? And why wouldn't the larger yellow box I drew around your blue box not be a better demand zone ? Thanks Borg {image}
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Let me start with a 30m chart. First look at the entire pattern. It would appear you have a larger Base pattern forming. The area you drew in green ( shown as 30M on this example) is much smaller. See how price left this area of Demand. we see a single spike touch early on.

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He is a close up view on the 30M. It would have been a very fast entry. You would had to placed you Buy right at the top of the level. You may have caught it.. maybe not??? Again, notice that the box drawn is much smaller. Going back to the first chart, notice you are trading, what appears to be, part of the base. Price did move into this Demand Level aggressively.. This is what we want to see.


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I show the 60M as to give you perspective on an overall view of the pattern. I tend to look at the larger TF's. Why??

1) It can give a better perspective of the pattern
2) It can help you define levels better at times

From this you can tighten up you LEVEL by stepping down in TF.

Now looking left along the 15M level to April 19 - 30M TF...See how price left the area..Rise.. then a small Base.. then a Rise again..... This Base had price return but it was very sloppy when it returned. Probably not the best pattern to trade at this point. Price did bounce and aggressively took off again forming a new Demand Level previously discussed. One could also make the argument that we have levels on levels on the 30M..In that case taking the lower level would have been the better trade..KL has discussed this type of trade structure previously.

Both the yellow and green levels you have drawn are to large in my opinion. If I may suggest .. review how KL draws his levels..He has very specific way he draws his levels. This will help you draw your levels better and this will help you define your risk more accurately.

I have chosen to show all of this on the 30M.. Better view..My use of the 15M is just another way I help define what i am try to see. Stay with KL's 30M for now. It will help a great deal.

Hope this helps

TSD
  • #5,550
  • Apr 27, 2013 3:29am Apr 27, 2013 3:29am
Quoting Kenneth Lee
{quote} FTB ???? I entered because of the levels on the chart i posted. I thought I had missed it but it pulled back up to 1.3035 and I got in..
Hello Ken:

By FTB I meant the first time price returned to a level. I should have written FTR. A Sam Seiden odds enhancer. Which is apparently the kind of trade you took.

Thanks

Borg
May the Forex be with you.
  • #5,551
  • Apr 27, 2013 3:32am Apr 27, 2013 3:32am
Quoting TraderinSD
{quote} {image} Let me start with a 30m chart. First look at the entire pattern. It would appear you have a larger Base pattern forming. The area you drew in green ( shown as 30M on this example) is much smaller. See how price left this area of Demand. we see a single spike touch early on. {image} He is a close up view on the 30M. It would have been a very fast entry. You would had to placed you Buy right at the top of the level. You may have caught it.. maybe not??? Again, notice that the box drawn is much smaller. Going back to the first chart,...
Thanks a lot TraderinSD for the detailed explanation.

I see how the 60 min gave a better overall view and so in fact the level you chose was much better than the earlier one I marked off in green. And I will review Ken's material on drawing levels.

I really appreciate your help

Borg
May the Forex be with you.
  • #5,552
  • Apr 27, 2013 10:50am Apr 27, 2013 10:50am
Quoting Kanzler
What I've started to notice is that when a level is about to fail, you just don't see a lot of opposing market orders being placed. Price kind of just sits along the edge of where the order stack is at (white space left in the zone) and chips away at it in chunks with minimal push back. When a level is still solid though we see competition to get the best price with the opposing market orders coming in and quickly pushing price back. Anybody else want to comment on this and perhaps other things they've noticed?
This is so important. Surprised it didn't get more of a discussion going.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #5,553
  • Apr 27, 2013 2:23pm Apr 27, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting Xhale
{quote} This is so important. Surprised it didn't get more of a discussion going.
We talk of this all the time. When you pick a level that is going to hold . The price action at it will be explosive and the price moves away like a scared cat. During off hours between sessions price can meander sideways maybe even crossing your stop as the opposing orders may not be awake or around. So the safe trader might not hold entries that don't move them into the green straight away.

I was told a long time ago by a trading mentor I had that your entries should move in your direction in at most the next candle if not think about exiting and getting a better entry.

Just my 2 cents. Of course if your tying levels on levels together it is all a mute point.

Cheers Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #5,554
  • Apr 27, 2013 3:26pm Apr 27, 2013 3:26pm
Quoting Kanzler
What I've started to notice is that when a level is about to fail, you just don't see a lot of opposing market orders being placed. Price kind of just sits along the edge of where the order stack is at (white space left in the zone) and chips away at it in chunks with minimal push back. When a level is still solid though we see competition to get the best price with the opposing market orders coming in and quickly pushing price back. Anybody else want to comment on this and perhaps other things they've noticed?
Hello Kanzler:

Do you have a chart showing what you are describing here ? It would make it a lot easier to understand what you are describing.

Thanks

Borg

PS
And Thanks Xhale for mentioning Kanzler's post earlier.
May the Forex be with you.
  • #5,555
  • Edited Apr 28, 2013 1:52pm Apr 27, 2013 5:14pm | Edited Apr 28, 2013 1:52pm
Hello there!

I'm new to this Supply and Demand thread but I've been trading SD for quite sometime, it's what I do every day. I track quite a few pairs for swing trading, not doing much intraday for now, and I wanted to share something with you if you are interested.

I draw and update D1 and WK SD levels every day for each pair I trade, and I've always wanted to know where we were in the curve, that is, if we're too high in the curve, we should be looking to possibly exit our shorts at a good supply level and not going long, and opposite if we're low in the curve. The curve can be the D1 timeframe, the Weekly timeframe or any you want, depending on your trading style, intraday, swing, position.

I use the D1 as my curve and levels on H1 and H4. I buy low in the curve and sell high in the curve. Since I track quite a few pairs, I don't want to check all of them in order to know where I am in the curve, if low or high, this is important for me and all of us trading SD. So what I did was creating an spreadsheet that uses DDE server option under MT4 that will send current bid price to Open Office Calc (it looks like Excel does not work with DDE), add my D1 SD levels on columns and check if price is in the middle, low or high in the curve, calculate distance in pips from current price to the D1 supply and demand proximal lines, as well as the % or altitude of the curve.

First thing I do in the morning is running MT and this spreadsheet so I will know if I'm low or high in the curve for any given pair or a selection of pair, like "where am I in the curve for all pairs with the EUR, or NZD? It will be like a basic curve heatmap.

I have to manually add the D1 distal and proximal lines for my SD levels (I use rectangles), but that's something I don't have to do very often. It would be different if my curve was the H4 chart.

Take a look at the snapshot attached to see what I mean.

1. There are different conditional formatting on the cells to detect if SD levels have been penetrated or broken.
2. Right now there are just 2 D1 and WK SD levels that price has penetrated and still is within it.
3. If D1/WK levels are broken then the distal line column will be colored purple, so by looking at it in the morning or at any time of the day, I will know which pairs I should look at first, because if the levels are broken, I will be interested in setting a limit order at the first valid previous SD level with a good imbalance, to keep on trading in the direction of the breakout.
4. It will calculate how high or low in the curve in % format for each pair. It will change cell color to red if low in the D1 curve and to blue if high in the D1 curve
5. It will show you D1 level width in pips, if lower than 40 pips it will be blue
6. It will show number of pips left for D1/WK supply and proximal lines to be touched
7. It shows spread for each currency pair. Need to add color hightlights when average spread of my broker are higher than normal
8. It displayes yellow color on the pips left to touch proximal line on D1 and WK SD levels, 40 pips for D1, and 80 pips for WK. If close enough to proximal lines, you will know instantly
9. First thing in the morning or whenever u want to trade, you load the sheet and u will know where in the curve u are, and if any D1 or WK levels have been broken because they will be purple, meaning pair is very strong in the opposite direction

It may seem simple to you, but it helps me a lot. The screenshot shows the spreadsheet, now the market is closed but when the market is opened the bid prices will update on every tick and the colors will change if levels are penetrated or broken, as well as the % or altitude of the curve on the D1 chart.

I can share it with you if you are interested.

Have a great weekend.
Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,556
  • Apr 27, 2013 5:17pm Apr 27, 2013 5:17pm
Quoting Borg
{quote} Hello Kanzler: Do you have a chart showing what you are describing here ? It would make it a lot easier to understand what you are describing. Thanks Borg PS And Thanks Xhale for mentioning Kanzler's post earlier.
I use the DOM when trading futures. Unfortunately you can't do the same in spot FX. I saw Ken replied to my recent post and mentioned price action. Using price action may help, but ultimately that is not what I'm referring too nor do I think it was what Kanzler was referring too (if we are on the same page).
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #5,557
  • Apr 27, 2013 7:11pm Apr 27, 2013 7:11pm
Quoting Xhale
{quote} I use the DOM when trading futures. Unfortunately you can't do the same in spot FX. I saw Ken replied to my recent post and mentioned price action. Using price action may help, but ultimately that is not what I'm referring too nor do I think it was what Kanzler was referring too (if we are on the same page).
Yes , I believe The way i trade is to simplistic to many, But I always said my continual search was for the very core of trading as I see it. It definitely isn't for everyone. But it is no different than learning any other repetitive action at some point you start to act on instinct and flows easily no different than avoiding a traffic accident, you learn to watch the road ahead and behind and see the way out that is open.

I know i say I see and use Price Action a lot, but I have been watching the charts for a long time about 5 years average of 5 to 6 hrs a day. You do start to be one with the charts and know better than 50% what the next move normally is. It is this reason i don't respond 100% to a lot of inquiries as it is at times more a instinct than a hard fast rule.

But I also feel that many get to involved in trying to pre-approve every trade and miss many. When i had many different entries ideas in my head it also made me have many ideas that questioned the others. I now still use very basic classic ideas but look for supply and demand for my entry I do jump in a bit to soon some times, Because you will find as you get better at picking them they turn ahead of the levels many times.

So many conversations i don't have much of a benefit to add. But this is why blogs or threads are good for sharing ideas. But I am very happy with where and how I trade and have found my own holy grail. It is up to us each to find how we can see. Then move forward with it. Just a thought i heard not to long ago , " keep adding good parts to whatever and you will see the bad fall away" Because there isn't room for both.

Sorry for the bit of a rant ,, Carry on , Cheers Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #5,558
  • Apr 28, 2013 6:04am Apr 28, 2013 6:04am
Quoting panoramia
I can share it with you if you are interested.
Hello, certainly interested.
  • #5,559
  • Apr 29, 2013 6:49am Apr 29, 2013 6:49am
I have also a limit set order on a fresh M30 supply level on USDJPY. I also wanted to short on the loewer M30 fresh supply level but I skipped it. It might work though. The biggest imbalance is at the upper one, the upper one even has a pro speedbump to the sell side that hasn't been filled yet.

Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,560
  • Apr 29, 2013 7:29am Apr 29, 2013 7:29am
Quoting panoramia
Hello there! I'm new to this Supply and Demand thread but I've been trading SD for quite sometime, it's what I do every day. I track quite a few pairs for swing trading, not doing much intraday for now, and I wanted to share something with you if you are interested. I draw and update D1 and WK SD levels every day for each pair I trade, and I've always wanted to know where we were in the curve, that is, if we're too high in the curve, we should be looking to possibly exit our shorts at a good supply level and not going long, and opposite if we're...
Shure, interested to learn more about your spreadsheet tool. How do you receive your data

Your tool and other one could be the subject of another thread. There is a lot to say about it I'm sure. I did developped a tool in Excel, like a big switchbox to send my orders to my broker, not for analysing.


A good day to all

Martin
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