Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

I'm a newbie here but have been watching for a few days. Did I miss an update on the EUR/USD that would have caught the 100 pip move that happened this morning. The last thing I see is the short listed below. How did "we" miss the long?

Did this mornings news trigger it?

Wednesday 6/14/2006 11:15 ET

GBP/JPY has risen to a high probability reversal region.

Sell GBP/JPY at 212.07 to 212.25

Stop is 212.36

The first target is 209.65, followed by 209.25, and then 209.00 and 208.85

Risk is max. 38 pips

Reward for Target #4 is min. 313 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 8.2 to 1

For research purposes only.

________________________________________________

Previous trade signals:
TS#88A Sell GBP/JPY possible re-entry opportunity at about 210.85
Monday 6/12/2006 12:00 ET
Re-entry opportunity TS#88A Sell GBP/JPY at about 210.85
For those not already in this trade, a re-entry opportunity arose when the price rose twice to 210.90 last night. If the price rises again to 210.85, then a third re-entry opportunity will present itself.
The first target is 209.65, followed by 209.25, and then 209.00 and 208.85
The stop is 211.06
Risk is max. 30 pips
Reward is min. 191 pips for last above mentioned target.
Reward : risk ratio is 6.4 to 1

__________________________________

Wednesday 6/7/2006 23:00 ET
TS#88 Sell GBP/JPY entry opportunity at about 210.75
If anyone holds a short position on GBP/JPY then we advise a stop of 211.08
Thousands of analysts all over the world are staring at the wedge formation on this pair that has been in formation for 40 days.
If it breaks out downwards, as we suspect it will, then the movement will be very strong and go far. Our first downwards target is 208.75, 200 pips below the entry price.

To Tecuma's Question: Why did EUR/USD and GBP/USD go up?

FXCM Squawk Box states:

"wild price action"

Regarding GBP/USD:

"sharp rally past yesterday's 1.8450 high following a failed attempt to test Tuesday's trend low at 1.8315 has sparked a wild rally.... "

Regarding EUR/USD:

"EUR/USD continues to befuddle traders today"

"talk of mideast buying along with rumour of another Chinese currency adjustment helped set off a squeeze...."

Regarding USD/CHF:

"stop hunting is now driving actions as the latest 1.2380 sparks a frantic exit of longs..."

"Spot touched 1.2269 as stops saw longs unceremoniously dumped from the market...."

Regarding USD/JPY:

"the downturn in USD/JPY was being attributed to rumours of a Chinese revaluation..."



"More questions than answers.....our phone has been ringing off the hook with dealers asking us what is going on. We are as stumped as they are on this point...."

"More questions than answers.....our phone has been ringing off the hook with dealers asking us what is going on. We are as stumped as they are on this point...."[/quote]

I'm a newbie but my two cents says:
The dollar is dumping for the looooong term. It just went through a short term correction. Can't make everybody too nervous you know. Just watch the looonng term. No pun indended.

Wednesday 6/14/2006 22:00 ET

GBP/USD went down to 1.8405, then up to a recent high of 1.8467. One could sell GBP/USD now, at a price of between 1.8450 and 1.8467, and hold to a target of 1.8380. Then we expect GBP/USD to reverse and ascend to about 1.8550 to 1.8600.

New target for short GBP/USD trade is 1.8380.

Stop is 1.8483

Risk is max. 37 pips

Reward is min. 70 pips

Reward : risk ratio is min. 2 : 1
_________________________________
Previous trade signals:

TS #101B
Sell GBP/USD re-enter sell as close to 1.8500 as possible
Wednesday 6/14/2006 9:40 ET
We were stopped out by an inexplicable large spike which created a superb selling opportunity. Therefore,
TS #101B
Sell GBP/USD re-enter sell as close to 1.8500 as possible
Stop is 1.8521
Target #1 is 1.8200
Risk is max. 40 pips (based on 1.8485 entry price)
Reward is min. 280 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 7.0 to 1
_________________________________________

Previous trade signal:
Wednesday 6/14/2006 4:00 ET
TS #101
Sell GBP/USD re-enter sell as close to 1.8455 as possible
Stop is 1.8476

For research purposes only. Trade at your own risk, and perform your own independent analysis.

Wednesday 6/14/2006 23:00 ET

TS#88C Sell GBP/JPY at 212.00 to 212.10

We were stopped out by only 7 pips on our last attempt to short GBP/JPY. The top has finally been most likely achieved. We will attempt another entry at the small correction wave on the way down here. Perhaps on the fourth time we will be lucky. Trading this cross currency is very tricky. This is not a high confidence trade, but we will try it anyways, with a small stop of 212.22 for a maximum risk of only 31 pips, and a large potential reward.

Stop is 212.22

Targets as below.

____________________________________________________

Previous trade signals:

TS#88B Sell GBP/JPY at 212.07 to 212.25 Wednesday 6/14/2006 11:15 ET
GBP/JPY has risen to a high probability reversal region.
Sell GBP/JPY at 212.07 to 212.25
Stop is 212.36
The first target is 209.65, followed by 209.25, and then 209.00 and 208.85
Risk is max. 38 pips
Reward for Target #4 is min. 313 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 8.2 to 1

For research purposes only.

________________________________________________

Previous trade signals:
TS#88A Sell GBP/JPY possible re-entry opportunity at about 210.85
Monday 6/12/2006 12:00 ET
Re-entry opportunity TS#88A Sell GBP/JPY at about 210.85
For those not already in this trade, a re-entry opportunity arose when the price rose twice to 210.90 last night. If the price rises again to 210.85, then a third re-entry opportunity will present itself.
The first target is 209.65, followed by 209.25, and then 209.00 and 208.85
The stop is 211.06
Risk is max. 30 pips
Reward is min. 191 pips for last above mentioned target.
Reward : risk ratio is 6.4 to 1

__________________________________

Wednesday 6/7/2006 23:00 ET
TS#88 Sell GBP/JPY entry opportunity at about 210.75
If anyone holds a short position on GBP/JPY then we advise a stop of 211.08
Thousands of analysts all over the world are staring at the wedge formation on this pair that has been in formation for 40 days.
If it breaks out downwards, as we suspect it will, then the movement will be very strong and go far. Our first downwards target is 208.75, 200 pips below the entry price.

Top Market Movers: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDJPY

Wednesday, 14 June 2006

Currency Daily Percentage Change (%) Intraday High Intraday Low Day's Range (pips)

EURUSD ........+0.5%........ 1.2648........ 1.2534........ 114
GBPUSD........ +0.5%........ 1.8500........ 1.8335........ 165
AUDJPY........ -0.5%........ 85.23.......... 84.59......... 64


It would seem that there is no fundamental explanation that is credible as to why EUR/USD and GBP/USD suddenly shot up over 100 pips each at 9:00 ET this morning. Notice how John Kicklighter not only does not explain, but barely acknowledges the 112 pip spike upward in the EUR/USD at 9:00 ET this morning.

The title of his piece implies that EUR/USD fell, which it didn't, and concentrates on reasons why the USD would have gained.

"US Inflationary Data Passes With Little Dollar Bullishness
Wednesday, 14 June 2006 16:53:12 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter, Junior Currency Analyst

Though a positive read for dollar traders, today’s long anticipated consumer price gauge came and went with little of the rally expected with the improved odds of an additional rate hike at the June 28th Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Price action in the majors was predominately driven by the US dollar given the similar swings across all four. In the benchmark EURUSD pair, a steady rise was produced through much of the Asian session, which was exhausted around 1.2605 at 8:45 GMT and subsequently completely retraced leading up to the scheduled economic releases due at the open of North American markets. The real trading opportunities were expected around 12:30 GMT in accordance to the CPI data, where the bulk of the session’s volatility was expected. In the aftermath of the releases, only modest action was seen before the EURUSD hit the session low around 1.2530 before the crosses made significant rallies. Similar rallies were seen across all the majors, while the euro-backed pair specifically made a 120 pip run......"

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx...304000973.html

Here is a comment by Richard Lee of DailyFX:

Euro Boosted By Foreign Bids

Today’s consumer price index figures boosted the probability of a rate hike decision by the US Federal Reserve on June 29th, adding to dollar strength. Futures traders are even betting on that side, pricing a 100 percent probability of that occurrence. But to the chagrin of dollar momentum traders, the currency pair reversed in favor of the Euro counter with some even questioning the data. Although inflationary pressures continue to remain alive and well, it seems that higher energy costs and rent are eating away at individual personal income. Subsequently, the figure actually fell in the month, below the advance expected. What did move the market seemed to be heavy buying in the market on an option protection. Shortly following the figure, rumored Russian, Middle Eastern and Asian parties were noted buyers near the 1.2525 figure that prompted a short squeeze. The aforementioned triggered stops on the way up, exacerbating the upward momentum and leading the pair higher. ....

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx...318437681.html

_____________________________________

An Elliottician's perspective:

All Roads Lead To Euro-me


6/15/2006 11:19:44 AM Consider the recent action in the 12-nation Euro, specifically, the four-session losing streak that landed the note at a five-week low against the US dollar on June 13.

One popular notion was that "growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month boosted the greenback and" bruised the euro.

Problem with that is, on June 14, the rate-higher, euro-lower camp got all the support they needed from a US Labor Department report revealing a larger-than-expected gain in May's core Consumer Price Index.

In the words of one Associated Press: "The new data makes it all the more likely the Fed will decide to raise rates a 17th straight time at its next meeting."

Come closing time, though, the euro ended the day higher for the first time in a week.

The June 14 upswing in the euro also punctures another widely held claim that "weak economic data will be euro negative." This theory appeared in a June 9 International Herald Tribune, the same day the Commodity Futures Trading Commission revealed that futures traders held a record LONG bet on the euro.

Apparently, the "Global Equity Meltdown" of June 13-14 that sent everything from the Dow Industrials to the German DAX index plunging wasn't negative enough to hamper the euro.

Nor for that matter was the June 14 story that said month-long slide in the foreign markets has so far wiped out $2 trillion in investors' wealth.

Either that's one tough euro OR some other force is behind the ups and downs in the currency; namely the Elliott Wave pattern of mass social mood. Ask us, and we'll go with option B.

And, in the June 14 Daily Futures Junctures, editor Jeffrey Kennedy reveals exactly which of the 13 classified Elliott Wave patterns is underway in the euro right now: A Flat.

In addition to this "clarity of pattern," Jeffrey also has this to say: "What excites me even more is where prices are currently trading," near a region of great Fibonacci relevance.

In his own words, Jeffery offers this conclusion: "I do know that the picture in the euro is exactly what I look for when trying to rejoin the larger trend. This alone warrants the euro moving to the top of my watch list in the next few days."


http://www.elliottwave.com/features/...d=2455*time=am

Hi ITME,
I followed your cross currencies calls and i traded with some good results.
Of course i got stop out quite often too but few winner trades of hundres pips
balanced out the small loss .
Good works ITME.
Thanks again.

Thanks itme.

It was a good idea to short GBP/JPY. It has dropped considerably from the recommended 212.10.

Also made some pips yesterday by shorting GBP/USD as recommended.

I'm using your trade signals together with my own indicators to decided on the direction to trade. I'm also using the trailing stop to conservatively secure profit. So far the strategy has proved to be effective.

Thursday 6/15/2006 9:30 ET

TS#88D Sell GBP/JPY at 212.70 to 212.80

Previous trade was stopped out by TIC data upwards spike. Hopefully the traders were all wary and placed tight stops previous to release of the significant data. Re-entry opportunity comes again.

Stop is 213.07

Targets as below

___________________________________________

Previous Trade Signals:

Wednesday 6/14/2006 23:00 ET
TS#88C Sell GBP/JPY at 212.00 to 212.10
We were stopped out by only 7 pips on our last attempt to short GBP/JPY. The top has finally been most likely achieved. We will attempt another entry at the small correction wave on the way down here. Perhaps on the fourth time we will be lucky. Trading this cross currency is very tricky. This is not a high confidence trade, but we will try it anyways, with a small stop of 212.22 for a maximum risk of only 31 pips, and a large potential reward.
Stop is 212.22
Targets as below.

__________________________________________________ __

TS#88B Sell GBP/JPY at 212.07 to 212.25 Wednesday 6/14/2006 11:15 ET
GBP/JPY has risen to a high probability reversal region.
Sell GBP/JPY at 212.07 to 212.25
Stop is 212.36
The first target is 209.65, followed by 209.25, and then 209.00 and 208.85
Risk is max. 38 pips
Reward for Target #4 is min. 313 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 8.2 to 1
________________________________________________

TS#88A Sell GBP/JPY possible re-entry opportunity at about 210.85
Monday 6/12/2006 12:00 ET
Re-entry opportunity TS#88A Sell GBP/JPY at about 210.85
For those not already in this trade, a re-entry opportunity arose when the price rose twice to 210.90 last night. If the price rises again to 210.85, then a third re-entry opportunity will present itself.
The first target is 209.65, followed by 209.25, and then 209.00 and 208.85
The stop is 211.06
Risk is max. 30 pips
Reward is min. 191 pips for last above mentioned target.
Reward : risk ratio is 6.4 to 1

__________________________________

Wednesday 6/7/2006 23:00 ET
TS#88 Sell GBP/JPY entry opportunity at about 210.75
If anyone holds a short position on GBP/JPY then we advise a stop of 211.08
Thousands of analysts all over the world are staring at the wedge formation on this pair that has been in formation for 40 days.
If it breaks out downwards, as we suspect it will, then the movement will be very strong and go far. Our first downwards target is 208.75, 200 pips below the entry price.

For research purposes only.

Thursday 6/15/2006 9:30 ET

TIC Capital Inflow data was much worse than expected, causing a severe upwards spike in GBP/USD which stopped us out. The correct strategy, as outlined earlier, would have been to bring the stop up to a tight level immediately before the data release, reducing the losses to a very small level.

TS #101D Sell GBP/USD re-entry opportunity at about 1.8515

Stop is 1.8515

Target is is 1.8380

___________________________________

Previous trade signals:

TS #101C Sell GBP/USD re-entry opportunity and revised target Wednesday 6/14/2006 22:00 ET
GBP/USD went down to 1.8405, then up to a recent high of 1.8467. One could sell GBP/USD now, at a price of between 1.8450 and 1.8467, and hold to a target of 1.8380. Then we expect GBP/USD to reverse and ascend to about 1.8550 to 1.8600.
New target for short GBP/USD trade is 1.8380.
Stop is 1.8483
Risk is max. 37 pips
Reward is min. 70 pips
Reward : risk ratio is min. 2 : 1
_________________________________
Previous trade signals:

TS #101B
Sell GBP/USD re-enter sell as close to 1.8500 as possible
Wednesday 6/14/2006 9:40 ET
We were stopped out by an inexplicable large spike which created a superb selling opportunity. Therefore,
TS #101B
Sell GBP/USD re-enter sell as close to 1.8500 as possible
Stop is 1.8521
Target #1 is 1.8200
Risk is max. 40 pips (based on 1.8485 entry price)
Reward is min. 280 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 7.0 to 1
_________________________________________

Previous trade signal:
Wednesday 6/14/2006 4:00 ET
TS #101
Sell GBP/USD re-enter sell as close to 1.8455 as possible
Stop is 1.8476

For research purposes only. Trade at your own risk, and perform your own independent analysis.

Thursday 6/15/2006 10:00 ET

Sharp spike caused by poor TIC data caused us to be stopped out. Hopefully the traders were all wary and placed tight stops previous to release of the significant data. Re-entry opportunity has now presented itself.

TS#89D - Sell EUR/JPY at market price of 145.10 - 145.20

Stop is 145.36

Risk is max. 30 pips

Targets as below.

_____________________________________

Previous trade signals:

TS#89C - Sell EUR/JPY at market price of 144.85 - 144.95 Tuesday 6/14/2006 10:00 ET
TS#89B - Sell EUR/JPY at market price of 144.85 - 144.95
Strange spike just caused an excellent re-entry opportunity.
Stop is 145.07

__________________________________________________


TS#89B - Sell EUR/JPY at market price of 144.70 - 144.80
Tuesday 6/14/2006 4:00 ET
TS#89B - Sell EUR/JPY at market price of 144.70 - 144.80
Stop is 144.96
Targets as below

____________________________________________


TS#89A Re-enter Sell EUR/JPY at market price of 143.95 to 144.05 was stopped out when the price rose to 144.93.
We expect another rise to either 145.00, 145.25 or 145.50, which will be a re-entry opportunity on the downwards trend that began when the price earlier reached 145.70
______________________________________________

Earlier trade signal:
Re-Entry Opportunity TS#89 Sell EUR/JPY at market price of 143.95 to 144.05 Monday 6/12/2006 10:15 ET
Re-Entry Opportunity TS#89 Sell EUR/JPY at market price of 143.95 to 144.05Stop is 144.12
Target #1 is 143.20
Target #2 is 143.00
Target #3 is 142.70
Risk is max. 20 pips
Reward (min.) at Target #3 is 122 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 6.1 to 1 (Target #3)

For research purposes only.

Thursday 6/15/2006 10:00 ET

Previous trade was stopped out by 13 pips by upwards spike caused by poor U.S.TIC data this morning. Wise traders would have moved their stop to a close level immediately prior to the data release to protect their small profits. Re-entry is now possible.

TS #103B Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4090 - 1.4110

Stop is 1.4121

Target #1 is 1.3700
______________________________

Previous trade signals:

Tuesday 6/14/2006 10:00 ET
TS #103A Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4055 - 1.4065
Stop is 1.4092
Target #1 is 1.3700
Risk is max. 47 pips
Reward is min. 345 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 7.3 to 1

___________________________________________

TS #103 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.3970 - 1.3990
Tuesday 6/14/2006 1:15 ET
TS #103
Sell EUR/CAD at 1.3970 - 1.3990
Stop loss is 1.4013
Risk is max. 48 pips
Target #1 is 1.3700
Reward is min. 255 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 5.3 to 1

For research purposes only.

Thursday 6/15/2006 11:15 ET

TS #105 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1175 - 1.1185

Stop loss is 1.1197

Risk is max. 27 pips

Target #1 is 1.0925

Reward is min. 245 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 9.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

Thursday 6/15/2006 16:15 ET

TS#88D Sell GBP/JPY at 212.70 to 212.80 - temporary exit advised

Recommend temporary exit of this short trade at about 212.10 to 212.20 to take profits of about 50 pips and wait for re-entry at higher price.

_______________________________________

Previous trade signal:
Thursday 6/15/2006 9:30 ET

TS#88D Sell GBP/JPY at 212.70 to 212.80

Previous trade was stopped out by TIC data upwards spike.
Hopefully the traders were all wary and placed tight stops previous to release of the significant data.
Re-entry opportunity comes again.

Stop is 213.07

Targets as below

Thursday 6/15/2006 116:30 ET

Exit temporarily at about 1.1110 and re-enter about 40 or 50 pips higher if desired.

________________________

Previous trade signal:
Thursday 6/15/2006 11:15 ET
TS #105 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1175 - 1.1185
Stop loss is 1.1197
Risk is max. 27 pips
Target #1 is 1.0925
Reward is min. 245 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 9.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

Thursday 6/15/2006 18:30 ET

TS#107 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.2760 to 2.2780

Stop is 2.2782

Target #1 is 2.2580

Target #2 is 2.2480

Target #3 is 2.2400

Risk is max. 37 pips

Reward is min. 165 / 265 / 345 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 4.5 / 7.2 / 9.3 to 1

The probability of hitting Target #2 is good.

For research purposes only. Trade at your own risk and be careful.

Thursday 6/15/2006 23:30 ET

Adjust stop upwards 9 pips to 2.2791

____________________________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Thursday 6/15/2006 18:30 ET
TS#107 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.2760 to 2.2780
Stop is 2.2782
Target #1 is 2.2580
Target #2 is 2.2480
Target #3 is 2.2400
Risk is max. 37 pips
Reward is min. 165 / 265 / 345 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 4.5 / 7.2 / 9.3 to 1
The probability of hitting Target #2 is good.

For research purposes only. Trade at your own risk and be careful.

Friday 6/16/2006 3:30 ET

TS#88D Re-Enter Sell GBP/JPY at 212.50 to 212.60 if you exited to take profits (as advised by last trade signal) at 212.10 to 212.20

Stop is 212.85

The first target is 209.65, followed by 209.25, and then 209.00 and 208.85

______________________________________________

Previous trade signals:

Thursday 6/15/2006 16:15 ET

TS#88D Sell GBP/JPY at 212.70 to 212.80 - temporary exit advised

Recommend temporary exit of this short trade at about 212.10 to 212.20 to take profits of about 50 pips and wait for re-entry at higher price.

_______________________________________

Thursday 6/15/2006 9:30 ET

TS#88D Sell GBP/JPY at 212.70 to 212.80

Previous trade was stopped out by TIC data upwards spike.
Hopefully the traders were all wary and placed tight stops previous to release of the significant data.
Re-entry opportunity comes again.

Stop is 213.07

Friday 6/16/2006 3:30 ET

TS #103B Re-Enter Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4065 - 1.4075

If anyone exited the previous short position at around 1.4025 to take profit of about 65 - 75 pips, then this is a re-entry opportunity.

Stop is 1.4096

Target #1 is 1.3700

Risk is max. 41 pips

Reward is min. 355 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 8.7 to 1

____________________________________________________

Previous trade signal:

TS #103B Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4090 - 1.4110
Thursday 6/15/2006 10:00 ET

Previous trade was stopped out by 13 pips by upwards spike caused by poor U.S.TIC data this morning. Wise traders would have moved their stop to a close level immediately prior to the data release to protect their small profits. Re-entry is now possible.
TS #103B Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4090 - 1.4110
Stop is 1.4121
Target #1 is 1.3700