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vsa with Malcolm

  • #24,021
  • Apr 23, 2013 8:07am Apr 23, 2013 8:07am
Quoting Alireza FX
{quote} i believe it started from here ... {image}
Could even say that it started way back at the end of February.

This is a very simple chart, i've marked two high volume zones and you can see for yourself how the market has moved around these areas. I stretched this chart across three screens to take the screen shot so make sure you zoom in.
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  • #24,022
  • Apr 23, 2013 9:29am Apr 23, 2013 9:29am
Quoting KinsaleForex
{quote} Could even say that it started way back at the end of February. This is a very simple chart, i've marked two high volume zones and you can see for yourself how the market has moved around these areas. I stretched this chart across three screens to take the screen shot so make sure you zoom in. {image}
Yes, that's true. But, in the short term, a case can be done for accumulation, as we see buying pressure any time the price falls.
Here is a 1hr chart. It is compressed but all marked bars are down bars.

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But, for the short side case, I always remember the COT charts and for the euro, it is still bearish(for sterling, it is still very bullish).
Therefore, selling rallies would make more sense. Supply area is where Alireza pointed out. Let's see how price behaves when back up there(if she goes there...).

Cheers!
  • #24,023
  • Apr 23, 2013 10:37pm Apr 23, 2013 10:37pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
{quote} Could even say that it started way back at the end of February. This is a very simple chart, i've marked two high volume zones and you can see for yourself how the market has moved around these areas. I stretched this chart across three screens to take the screen shot so make sure you zoom in. {image}
You would do Pres proud, yesterday's high stop almost dead on the 50% of the bar from February.

Quoting joaoborras
{quote} Yes, that's true. But, in the short term, a case can be done for accumulation, as we see buying pressure any time the price falls.
Come on Jo, not really a case for accumulation. Take a look at your 1h chart, how many accumulation periods have you seen take the shape of a mushroom? How many distribution periods have you seen take shape of a mushroom?

Buying does happen on ultra wide down bars with ultra high volume. But also it takes effort to break out of accumulation periods/distribution periods so that is why you will see high volume bars that push through. The biggest thing you are looking for is how price reacts to the these bars, which is where tests come in. If the low of a wide down bar is tested with low volume then its safe to assume its bullish.

Here is a 1h of 4/17, the green bar shows the low of the down bar being tested. Which price does come up, as price comes up we see low volume UT, showing no one is interested in higher prices. The next another attempt is made to break the high of the down bar, which all 3 bars fail to close above the high, and infact it is sold into.
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  • #24,024
  • Apr 23, 2013 10:41pm Apr 23, 2013 10:41pm
I was pretty bearish yesterday, but ended up getting my ass handed to me anyways.

Red shows my background, green my entry and yellow stop loss.

I think right now my stop loss needs the most work, although I think it was in the best place yesterday.
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  • #24,025
  • Apr 23, 2013 11:26pm Apr 23, 2013 11:26pm
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} You would do Pres proud, yesterday's high stop almost dead on the 50% of the bar from February. {quote} Come on Jo, not really a case for accumulation. Take a look at your 1h chart, how many accumulation periods have you seen take the shape of a mushroom? How many distribution periods have you seen take shape of a mushroom? Buying does happen on ultra wide down bars with ultra high volume. But also it takes effort to break out of accumulation periods/distribution periods so that is why you will see high volume bars that push through....
Hi SD,
Ok, hands down for the accumulation case! :-) I do agree with your analysis and can see I was reading only half of the story.
The points about the tests and how price reacts at the highs/lows/closes of UHV bars are integral part of VSA. Thanks to remember me!
Will review my readings on euro and the basic concepts of VSA.

Again, thanks for that!
  • #24,026
  • Apr 24, 2013 12:47am Apr 24, 2013 12:47am
Quoting joaoborras
{quote} Hi SD, Ok, hands down for the accumulation case! :-) I do agree with your analysis and can see I was reading only half of the story. The points about the tests and how price reacts at the highs/lows/closes of UHV bars are integral part of VSA. Thanks to remember me! Will review my readings on euro and the basic concepts of VSA. Again, thanks for that!
You're an awesome analyst, it is easy to get caught up in the market getting sidetracked and focus on the wrong bars.

Small trade long prior to London, 3015-3030 will be an interesting area to watch for supply. Went small position due to the PA from US session (blue lines).
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  • #24,027
  • Apr 24, 2013 1:11am Apr 24, 2013 1:11am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} . Here is a 1h of 4/17, the green bar shows the low of the down bar being tested. Which price does come up, as price comes up we see low volume UT, showing no one is interested in higher prices. The next another attempt is made to break the high of the down bar, which all 3 bars fail to close above the high, and infact it is sold into. {image}
now my setup is completed and i m so happy
thank you SimpleDev for the great points you have mentioned

cheers
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  • #24,028
  • Apr 24, 2013 2:09am Apr 24, 2013 2:09am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} You're an awesome analyst, it is easy to get caught up in the market getting sidetracked and focus on the wrong bars. Small trade long prior to London, 3015-3030 will be an interesting area to watch for supply. Went small position due to the PA from US session (blue lines). {image}
Thanks for your kind words! It is very encouraging.
  • #24,029
  • Apr 24, 2013 10:55pm Apr 24, 2013 10:55pm
Looks as if a base has formed with a HV SO yesterday in London. A little surprised with the mark up in Asia and it looks as if it was sold. Not sure I want to participate in a down move. Maybe its being marked down to test 3025?
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  • #24,030
  • Apr 25, 2013 12:51am Apr 25, 2013 12:51am
i m still believe on bearish market in EU
but
i don t know what to do with the breaking resistance
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  • #24,031
  • Apr 25, 2013 1:07am Apr 25, 2013 1:07am
Quoting Alireza FX
i m still believe on bearish market in EU but i don t know what to do with the breaking resistance {image} {image}
EU could be still bearish..

I am a bit confused with yesterdays PA and that today Asia sold, still have an hour till LO 3034-3025 will be an interesting area to watch to see if demand comes in.
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  • #24,032
  • Apr 25, 2013 1:49am Apr 25, 2013 1:49am
When trading EUR-USD it is good to look USD-CHF too.
  • #24,033
  • Apr 25, 2013 2:21am Apr 25, 2013 2:21am
Some areas to look at in the euro.

1hr chart:

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The push up this morning could be a fake move, to hunt stops or induce buying so the SM can sell into it. Cable did the same.

Update: just saw SD talked about the SO in previous post. Sorry!
  • #24,034
  • Apr 25, 2013 2:25am Apr 25, 2013 2:25am
nice analysis, definitely a shakeout

PS_Did you study via Todd Krueger?

Quoting joaoborras
Some areas to look at in the euro. 1hr chart: {image} The push up this morning could be a fake move, to hunt stops or induce buying so the SM can sell into it. Cable did the same. Update: just saw SD talked about the SO in previous post. Sorry!
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #24,035
  • Apr 25, 2013 2:36am Apr 25, 2013 2:36am
Quoting joaoborras
Some areas to look at in the euro. 1hr chart: {image} The push up this morning could be a fake move, to hunt stops or induce buying so the SM can sell into it. Cable did the same. Update: just saw SD talked about the SO in previous post. Sorry!
I had the same analysis. Wondering where Malcolm is nowadays??
  • #24,036
  • Apr 25, 2013 2:42am Apr 25, 2013 2:42am
Quoting Connected
nice analysis, definitely a shakeout PS_Did you study via Todd Krueger? {quote}
No, I didn't studied with Todd Krueger but I do subscribe his free newsletter.
I studied with Chris Lori and TradeGuider, among others but they are the main(and, of course, all the crap out there as well! :-).
Also, I read everything from Sam Seiden.
I am thinking to try Dr. Gary Dayton but will wait a bit more on this one.
And also, I think this thread is just amazing, really.

What about you?
  • #24,037
  • Apr 25, 2013 2:47am Apr 25, 2013 2:47am
For me Todd Krueger, Sam Seiden, Steve Nison, Al Brooks, Chris Lori, Tom Williams +

Think I will read through this thread too, thanks for sharing

Quoting joaoborras
{quote} No, I didn't studied with Todd Krueger but I do subscribe his free newsletter. I studied with Chris Lori and TradeGuider, among others but they are the main(and, of course, all the crap out there as well! :-). Also, I read everything from Sam Seiden. I am thinking to try Dr. Gary Dayton but will wait a bit more on this one. And also, I think this thread is just amazing, really. What about you?
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #24,038
  • Apr 25, 2013 2:49am Apr 25, 2013 2:49am
Quoting Connected
For me Todd Krueger, Sam Seiden, Steve Nison, Al Brooks, Chris Lori, Tom Williams + Think I will read through this thread too, thanks for sharing {quote}
yes! Steve Nison and Bigalow, right.
I tried to read Al Brooks' 1st book but can't go beyond the first 10 pages!! :-)
  • #24,039
  • Apr 25, 2013 3:24am Apr 25, 2013 3:24am
Quoting joaoborras
{quote} yes! Steve Nison and Bigalow, right. I tried to read Al Brooks' 1st book but can't go beyond the first 10 pages!! :-)
I also read some of Sebastian Manby's work, newbies should check out all of the above!
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #24,040
  • Apr 25, 2013 3:36am Apr 25, 2013 3:36am
Haha! I did'nt try his book but thought his Price Action course was good! and Sam Seidens price action course too

Quoting joaoborras
{quote} yes! Steve Nison and Bigalow, right. I tried to read Al Brooks' 1st book but can't go beyond the first 10 pages!! :-)
Tracking the Specialists.
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