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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #40,041
  • Apr 24, 2013 7:21pm Apr 24, 2013 7:21pm
Quoting kinky
{quote} Hi Li, the whipsaws were really irritating.. Have been like this for the past 2 days as mentioned by chief. Keep wiping my foreign cap. I tried fading the breakouts today and did ok..

Hi Kinky...hope I got the name right :-)

Yes the old bull/bear trap. After commnets and thoughts this week tried out slippage on the fx see m platform as I do not usually trade announcements taht way however the ifo numbers were good r/r.

Hit 71's got 57's... went 53...lol.. they revealed a lot more than they stole..I will be waiting...

After reading posts last few days, I thought I would add I do not like Mt4 platform or fx see m .. now trading Dukas opi which seems better but will try slippage next oportunity and see their response.

They say ecn but I do not believe...

Many have said fx market a gamble...there is no gambling for the retail, just robbery.

Good trading Kinky

Nice to meet your aquaintance

ps GBP been nice up/down but getting close to pcs.
  • #40,042
  • Apr 24, 2013 7:36pm Apr 24, 2013 7:36pm
Quoting fti
{quote} no more shitty drinks for me, thank you. ya tomorrow us sector should be busy. question is what peeps may want attempt to do before that. i not know how big books lean is on. but just saw they keep trying the 1.3 so 1.3 is very pivotal zone. else where aud is leaning soft. $yen may try for par . may just have spill over effect. me worked very hard figuring out the addons tub suggested. and my bio clock all out of whack. regards
Hi Fti

Weekly e$ says lower now they are lining up top of range on 1.3 terrain..accumulating.. time window getting smaller

Majors seem more active in Asia this year..

Yens topping?? ABe chatter coming across wires right now 0.31gmt "wants to turn up the printing machine if 44TY isnt enough"

Have a good day

Regards
Li
  • #40,043
  • Edited 8:44pm Apr 24, 2013 8:12pm | Edited 8:44pm
Quoting liqidone
{quote} Hi Fti Weekly e$ says lower now they are lining up top of range on 1.3 terrain..accumulating.. time window getting smaller Majors seem more active in Asia this year.. Yens topping?? ABe chatter coming across wires right now 0.31gmt "wants to turn up the printing machine if 44TY isnt enough" Have a good day Regards Li
hi Li.

would you like give me an assistance about news.
i'm weak about reading situation based on news.

from daily chart it seems u/j meet resistance and yes, e/u looks like accumulating power to lining up.
but i don't dare tell for sure, since we are not fortune teller. aren't we?


sincerely, frz.

regards
steady as she goes
  • #40,044
  • Apr 24, 2013 11:52pm Apr 24, 2013 11:52pm
hi All.

i found this,

Daily Report: Dollar Weakened as Gold Extends Rebound

Dollar is broadly lower in Asian session today as commodities stage further rebound. Gold is back above 1440 level which is more than 9% above last week's low of 1321.5. Meanwhile, crude oil is also back pressing 92 level, which is more than 7% above last week's low of 85.61. In the currency markets, dollar is broadly lower against other major currencies except yen.

link: http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0130425188484/

is it just minor fluctuation?

also i remember 3 weeks ago BoJ Monetary Policy Statement drove big movement of all jpy pairs
especially e/j and u/j for last 3 weeks,
and tom another BoJ Press Conference will be released.

any thoughts about that?


Regards
steady as she goes
  • #40,045
  • Apr 25, 2013 12:03am Apr 25, 2013 12:03am
Quoting frz
{quote} hi Li. would you like give me an assistance about news. i'm weak about reading situation based on news. from daily chart it seems u/j meet resistance and yes, e/u looks like accumulating power to lining up. but i don't dare tell for sure, since we are not fortune teller. aren't we? sincerely, frz. regards
Hi frz,

Sorry I fell alseep, my dawn service for Anzac's and my body clock ran into each other.

News, for me is like having a double agent in the mix. The usual bloomberg cnbc along with the minister for this and the mins for that pres this and Mi F that..all comments for sale. $4 trillion a day buys anything.. except Integrity,Honesty and Loyalty.

In my opinion, the news is a catalyst for propoganda which I do not try to read.. but watch its affects it has on the market paticipants...this week was a perfect example, I do not want to use the words as it attracts undue attention, but what happens in war with land i..e... rd's, how there was not one but 3 or 4 to head the crowd in a direction.
This week if you look at the figs leading into the German IF O numbers set up a catlyst to short and short hard...look what happened..squeezed to the upside and those spreads got very wide...its not over yet today and tomorrow..same... in fact it never stops.

Its intel gathering propoganda from the other side..much like their bogus platforms they supply us....on an announcement I will wait 5/10mins sometimes longer and then see the strike...its fluid battle so timing is important..but background intel vital...sometimes there is an opportunity, sometimes not.

Use their 'news/porpoganda' against them.

Another example..G.Suchs (over lor ds) goes on main media and says paper gold going to $1300. I noticed the girl and boy employees make an over emphasized add on 'how ridicululous' 'couldn't possibily''I will buy there' blah blah blah so I watch and watch listen...what happens.. paper gold gets rammed with naked paper to $1321 ..results Suchs now main opinion in the market for now and when they want to sell herd will buy and when they want to buy herd will sell...running the herd...pretty much like our education system built by the Prussians to develop soldier and employee(paid for by ....R,C,F,Rk etc)...I never did like school.:-)
Now in this scenario gs was the mouth piece but why what for etc and they are fighting bigger foes, and we collateral but for now they hold 'opinion/belief' of herd..control...same as paper currency..not real (worthless) outside of 'opinion/belief'... but still controls

Trading to me is listening with your eyes and seeing with your ears...if that makes sense...be sure of this...what you hear is what they want you to hear...but if your listening with your eyes and seeing with your ears ... opportunity comes.

I try not to get a bias on news and as I read in a brilliant post here about shading ones mind..this happens quickly if not fully focussed and engaged.
I dont get it right all times as when I am suspicious sometimes there is distorted truth and pay the price...but learn more of the other side.

Look down your calender this week, mostly red and close black..even chart is showing red setup e$W but going green shorter...perfect example.

Having said that, over analysis can freeze you up..I am still watching and listening, yesterday I thought for good opportunity to see what was posted here this week and I learnt much for very little..costs money to run campaign, just like any business.

I have multiple feeds in however I use trade the news dot com for good supply of up to date propoganda but again only the one with the trigger finger can interpret when to fire...also listen for no news, no noise at all..and prepare.

A close associate did the biege book...when asked how...answer...pick a number..top drawer or bottom drawer... its not so much the propoganda but what are they trying to achieve with it..

Take care my friend

Regards

Li

Hope that is of some assistance, again just part of my MO which doesnt mean its right ..just what I have come to hear and see in this devils world.
  • #40,046
  • Apr 25, 2013 12:36am Apr 25, 2013 12:36am
Quoting liqidone
{quote} Hi frz, Sorry I fell alseep, my dawn service for Anzac's and my body clock ran into each other. News, for me is like having a double agent in the mix. The usual bloomberg cnbc along with the minister for this and the mins for that pres this and Mi F that..all comments for sale. $4 trillion a day buys anything.. except Integrity,Honesty and Loyalty. In my opinion, the news is a catalyst for propoganda which I do not try to read.. but watch its affects it has on the market paticipants...this week was a perfect example, I do not want...
thanks for your thought Li,
i'm much appreciate it.

wow. i presume that you are very comprehend about this.
yes, i feel it too. there's something wrong with our education system globally.
and yes, i agree that sometimes there is propaganda to move the market.
in order to fill their aims.

i don't know what i should tell about current condition in financial intermarket relationship,
due my lack understanding about the concept.

i can't waiting for your next thought.
sincerely, frz.


Regards
steady as she goes
  • #40,047
  • Edited 4:39am Apr 25, 2013 3:06am | Edited 4:39am
Quoting tubguy
{quote} Something is not right if it takes that much time. I had an Oanda account and their platform was very fast. You may want to ask them about that.
I tried - they are analysing the java logs and will get back to me.....

Left a little position on while I got my daughter to sleep, came back and the market had moved 120 pips in my favour
  • #40,048
  • Apr 25, 2013 5:08am Apr 25, 2013 5:08am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} I tried - they are analysing the java logs and will get back to me..... Left a little position on while I got my daughter to sleep, came back and the market had moved 120 pips in my favour

UK GDP ...apparantly stayed out of triple dip recession. US jobless claims 12.30 GMT

Well done.
  • #40,049
  • Apr 25, 2013 6:15am Apr 25, 2013 6:15am
Quoting liqidone
{quote} UK GDP ...apparantly stayed out of triple dip recession. US jobless claims 12.30 GMT Well done.
Cheers, I saw the figures. Lucky I wasn't there really, I'd probably have closed it much earlier if I was watching that!

(Don't tell anyone I was absent without leave though - I might be up on charges. Opening a position just before a preliminary GDP announcement and forgetting about it isn't exactly something to be proud of )
  • #40,050
  • Apr 25, 2013 7:17am Apr 25, 2013 7:17am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} I tried - they are analysing the java logs and will get back to me..... Left a little position on while I got my daughter to sleep, came back and the market had moved 120 pips in my favour
Hope they get it figured out. I know that would run me nuts.

Quote
came back and the market had moved 120 pips in my favour

Gotta love it when good things happen.
  • #40,051
  • Apr 25, 2013 9:10am Apr 25, 2013 9:10am
Quoting frz
{quote} you're not alone, ukman. me too. i like colourfull candle with pretty big size. lol {image}
Nice display

I only just discovered those one-click trading panels you have there - for some reason I think they look really sexy. Maybe I need to visit a doctor?

@tubguy Cheers - I'm not that hopeful though. I do have their iPad app which I've been using to open and close trades but it's a bit of a pain. I might use my other account but I used to get re quoted quite often on that...Maybe I could use MT4 with Oanda and see what that is like. I have been using fxtrade because I wanted another test run with small positions before taking the plunge but I probably won't need to trade in anything smaller than microlots later so MT4 should be OK.
  • #40,052
  • Apr 25, 2013 10:35am Apr 25, 2013 10:35am
Quoting frz
{quote} thanks for your thought Li, i'm much appreciate it. wow. i presume that you are very comprehend about this. yes, i feel it too. there's something wrong with our education system globally. and yes, i agree that sometimes there is propaganda to move the market. in order to fill their aims. i don't know what i should tell about current condition in financial intermarket relationship, due my lack understanding about the concept. i can't waiting for your next thought. sincerely, frz. Regards
18. All warfare is based on deception.
  • #40,053
  • Edited 1:57pm Apr 25, 2013 1:40pm | Edited 1:57pm
ai ya seem me sleepy head missed the roller coaster.


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Hope my friends did good, wow, two way hunt.

ai ya i can't find my this record.
this chap have the exact same one. nice!!!


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regards
  • #40,054
  • Apr 25, 2013 2:03pm Apr 25, 2013 2:03pm
Chief,

I draw lines on charts as levels if market has reacted in history on higher time frames and used them as tool go measure the market.
Now since few weeks my mind is trusting too much in these lines and I felt I am becoming regid about that. Like if market is going up and touching the level I assume it will come back and start selling and even if it break up.. i feel it is duck hunting.
Now I am realizing that I am not dancing with market but I am predicting the market.

Chief how can I cure my this new disease. I want to go back again to basics to learn dance chief now.
To start dance training again should I just open a 5 min chart no line and level and just zoo out/in to get the feeing and scale in and out slowly? or is there other way better... sorry seems I am lost ..
  • #40,055
  • Edited 2:34pm Apr 25, 2013 2:07pm | Edited 2:34pm
Quoting 786 trading
Chief, I draw lines on charts as levels if market has reacted in history on higher time frames and used them as tool go measure the market. Now since few weeks my mind is trusting too much in these lines and I felt I am becoming regid about that. Like if market is going up and touching the level I assume it will come back and start selling and even if it break up.. i feel it is duck hunting. Now I am realizing that I am not dancing with market but I am predicting the market. Chief how can I cure my this new disease. I want to go back again to basics...
hahahahaha , lines? i warned
just drop the methodology.
go naked charts and be humble.

Is not the lines, is your mindset. you think you can read market.
You forgot, ITS ALIVE.

right hand side of chart, its alive, left hand side of chart is dead. history.
Try not tell market what she should do. ASK her what she doing.
when trading no one knows whats the future until it arrives.
Whatever it is, have strategies deal with it when arrives.


I look at the chart i i am thinking. Looks like caused by crazy cable trading.
I think i gonna hear about rogue traders soon.
Manipulate la, manipulate. I see where his ass lands.
come come, my stone rolling pin is waiting for you at 1.55
find me if you can.

seems euro sell off coincided with us unemployment.
and $ yen is king of markets.
gogogo run them over.

786, your problems are double hard to remedy.
you need take time off , wear out the bias.
then you need come back to markets slowly with humiility, listen , watch and execute.
be very very nimble and humble mindset.

When you have positions watch how they trying screw you then find ways chop off their dick.
786, i not think this new disease to you.
try think honestly, i think is an old scorpion. NO?
i believe you met it before.

When you riding markets, you need also be generous.
when they test and test your ride, some times need give them benefit of the doubt and take whatever she gave.
if want can leave scouts see if can realign them.
only apply pressure after get lots foreign cap in .

Never attack in a weak state, always attack when there no way they can inflict pain on you.

regards
  • #40,056
  • Edited 2:49pm Apr 25, 2013 2:36pm | Edited 2:49pm
oh here an exercise.
can you move around clipping bamboos without get clipped?
already gave so many times.
just get out of rhythm and get hard in the arteries and gets clipped.
some can go blind folded and still stay in rhythm.
pump pump, rest ,rest
pump pump pump pump rest rest
pump pump pump pump , boom



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feel the waves rhythm.
this was assasin wave.
only the generous got off the bus after break top.
then the figs. new waves.
  • #40,057
  • Edited 4:05pm Apr 25, 2013 2:53pm | Edited 4:05pm
here another lesson.

Inserted Video


Hey Girl, why are you walking dangerously against the sea waves, on the shore on your lonesome.
Hey Girl, Just because you not afraid of sea waves, you wish raise your wind waves?

Ai ya, is not sea waves la.
Is my beautiful whackings in waves beating la.
Even thought there darkness at the corner of the sky.
Still like the seagull you wants to fly out against the sea currents?

Hey girl, i fervently wish dancing in rhythm beside you.
Hey girl, to go with you see their great sea and to see their winds waves.

Ai ya, is not sea waves la.
Is my beautiful whackings in waves beating la.
Even thought there darkness at the corner of the sky.
Still like the seagull you wants to fly out against the sea currents?

Hey girl, i fervently wish dancing in rhythm beside you.
Hey girl, to go with you see their great sea and to see their winds waves.

鄧麗君

海韻

莊奴 詞 古月 曲

女郎 你為什麼
獨自徘徊在海灘
女郎 難道不怕
大海就要起風浪
啊 不是海浪
是我美麗的衣裳飄蕩
縱然天邊有黑霧
也要像那海鷗飛翔
女郎 我是多麼
希望圍繞你身旁
轉載來自
女郎 和你去看大海
去看那風浪
啊 不是海浪
是我美麗的衣裳飄蕩
縱然天邊有黑霧
也要像那海鷗飛翔
女郎 我是多麼
希望圍繞你身旁
女郎 和你去看大海
去看那風浪

The moral: this death wish hor.
But egor cannot resist.
some peeps duplicate it in their lives.
so SAD.
sometimes even those who knows. How SAD.
Maybe is better if learn to yield quickly. NO?
early bird catches the early worm. Just no be worm.

The lesson: when force against you is detected id too strong , yield.
find spot get even , never get mad.
there is alawys time, another place, another day.
get the feel right, and they behind burst. As long as you still alive. with resources intact.
Only no put all eggs in 1 basket. And don't be greddy or overconfident.
If they behind burst , will come naturally, no need force.
consistency.

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  • #40,058
  • Apr 25, 2013 2:54pm Apr 25, 2013 2:54pm
Quoting fti
{quote} hahahahaha , lines? i warned just drop the methodology. go naked charts and be humble. Is not the lines, is your mindset. you think you can read market. You forgot, ITS ALIVE. right hand side of chart, its alive, left hand side of chart is dead. history. Try not tell market what she should do. ASK her what she doing. when trading no one knows whats the future until it arrives. Whatever it is, have strategies deal with it when arrives. I look at the chart i i am thinking. Looks like caused by crazy cable trading. I think i gonna hear about...
Thank you Chief
  • #40,059
  • Edited 6:09pm Apr 25, 2013 4:35pm | Edited 6:09pm
: rofl: i'm up at unearthly hours listening old rock.

mom woke up checked me, there is madman in the house.she must be thinking dad came home.

regards

unbelieveable, they have my favorite song.
weavers song.

ai ya i lost this ep also.
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ai ya



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sorry, my old doo waps...

if i can find simon juniors's white clouds, that would be a set.: )
  • #40,060
  • Edited 7:03pm Apr 25, 2013 6:41pm | Edited 7:03pm
since i am still alive and rolling.
lets go, go. yeeeha

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