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  • #281
  • Apr 20, 2013 6:42am Apr 20, 2013 6:42am
Quoting Slim Buffett
Cool...... as far as I can ascertain Mr. RJ uses stoch in his trading method. If Mr. RJ didn't believe that stoch was a leading indi... why bother Apparently, the stoch is leading him to make better trading decisions. Perhaps............ he's using it and doesn't know what it is ??? http://www.tradingmarkets.com/recent...ng-679183.html idk
Stochastic doesn't tell the future, neither does any other indicator
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #282
  • Apr 20, 2013 6:46am Apr 20, 2013 6:46am
  •  FerruFx
  • Joined May 2007 | Status: MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder | 6,542 Posts | Online Now
Quoting realjumper
Stochastic doesn't tell the future, neither does any other indicator
That's a fact ...
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #283
  • Apr 20, 2013 6:58am Apr 20, 2013 6:58am
Quoting Slim Buffett
PS............... If you're going to trade realize that no one is "the boss" unless you're actually working for someone else. Learn to form your own ideas without the boss looking over your back. If you want to call someone "the boss" go back to work at the 9-5 comprende ?? all the best

9-5 work! lol...
I did not know that calling boss to one senior here, other boss (plural) will not feel good! You may be a boss for a single post or a thread! Not for trading! If someone is boss on trading why he will spend time here! (you are right in this context)

Oi!
  • #284
  • Apr 20, 2013 7:05am Apr 20, 2013 7:05am
Quoting Slim Buffett
If you read closely, it seems as though the boss has tickled your anal fantasy. idk........... I'm just sayin'
I do not know how Slim you are but if you have fantasy in your anal...(lol..)
  • #285
  • Apr 20, 2013 9:31am Apr 20, 2013 9:31am
IMO, fib retracement and extensions vary from one currency/ stocks to the other. some pairs respect a certain fib level in which they would consider making a decision about what they are going to do with the market. other pairs may not respect the level that you have identified. the key is to observe the market closely and use it often to find at what fib level where a certain pair is reactive to.
  • #286
  • Edited 2:31pm Apr 20, 2013 10:02am | Edited 2:31pm
Quoting chikanesoup
IMO, fib retracement and extensions vary from one currency/ stocks to the other. some pairs respect a certain fib level in which they would consider making a decision about what they are going to do with the market. other pairs may not respect the level that you have identified. the key is to observe the market closely and use it often to find at what fib level where a certain pair is reactive to.
I agree 100% with you. When and where they can be used to shed some light on PA, they are very helpful. Where they fail to shed light, use something else. Regarding currencies: I am operating under a theory that fibs work best where bankers are dominating the PA, and work less where commodities (or something else) may be driving PA. No empirical data on that, but its something rattling around in the back of my head. Or, maybe it's pivot points!
  • #287
  • Edited 1:39pm Apr 20, 2013 11:54am | Edited 1:39pm
  •  traade
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: the market knows every move u got | 14 Posts
Since most people agree that all indicators are lagging whilst using Fibonacci expansion and retracement levels is as good as gambling something fishy must be going on in the brain neurons of the trader who is deluded into believing that remixing known/popular indicators will yield an optimum undiscovered combination which will yield above average consistently. Given the computing power we have today one would expect that by now someone with access to a company, government or university supercomputer would have come up with either a perfect or pseudo-perfect solution of how one can calibrate the right technical analysis indicators. That person should be a trillionare in US dollars by now. When a given indicator works in ones favour I suspect that the brains reward/pleasure centres over-fire subliminally resulting in the trader getting hooked regardless of future shortcomings. When the indicator repeatedly begins to fail the same addictive process is initiated by another indicator or recalibration of the same indicator. Could it be that we as humans are fundamentally flawed and not designed to succeed in trading (even automated trading code comes from the mammalian brain). Almost every trader with a computer has the same deck of technical indicators and it really sounds insane that anything undiscovered can came out of reshuffling the same deck every day/week/month/year etc.(tarot reading comes to mind. lol) could it be that technical analysis is a new form of mental illness?I guess all hope lies with all those brave traders who are thinking outside of the box and developing new ideas which are currently taboo or unpalatable to today’s generation of traders who trust what they have read or what they had been taught at paid conferences/seminars. Probably they will be the Galileo's and Einstein's of our great grandchildren in decades to come.
  • #288
  • Apr 20, 2013 3:04pm Apr 20, 2013 3:04pm
It is not the indicator that is at fault here. The indicator was programmed to do a certain task and it does that task well.
Where the failure is, is the correct interpretation of that data.

A person with limiting beliefs will not find answers to problems, he will admit defeat very easily. That is the easiest route to take - to give up.

Great inventors failed many, many times but building on what they have learnt. You have to work hard at this to succeed.

Thomas Edison said "I have not failed, I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work".

The "light bulb" moment may just be around the corner.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #289
  • Apr 20, 2013 5:15pm Apr 20, 2013 5:15pm
Quoting chikanesoup
IMO, fib retracement and extensions vary from one currency/ stocks to the other. some pairs respect a certain fib level in which they would consider making a decision about what they are going to do with the market. other pairs may not respect the level that you have identified. the key is to observe the market closely and use it often to find at what fib level where a certain pair is reactive to.
And it is observed that Fibonacci trading system does work better in trending market and/or trending currency pairs. We all know that some currency pairs trend better and for longer duration than other pairs. So perhaps Fibonacci-based trading system would work better on those pairs.

Just like many including myself have stated, it's how and how effectively you use an indicator that matters.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #290
  • Apr 20, 2013 9:26pm Apr 20, 2013 9:26pm
Quoting chikanesoup
IMO, fib retracement and extensions vary from one currency/ stocks to the other. some pairs respect a certain fib level in which they would consider making a decision about what they are going to do with the market. other pairs may not respect the level that you have identified. the key is to observe the market closely and use it often to find at what fib level where a certain pair is reactive to.
Quoting Forexia
And it is observed that Fibonacci trading system does work better in trending market and/or trending currency pairs. We all know that some currency pairs trend better and for longer duration than other pairs. So perhaps Fibonacci-based trading system would work better on those pairs. Just like many including myself have stated, it's how and how effectively you use an indicator that matters.

Using Fib seem relevant on currencies.
I cannot said about on Stocks as have not use Fib much for Stock trading.

The levels differ for different currencies.
And at times the levels also differ for the same currency.
This is why many people say it don't work, as really it is hard to measure even if you want to measure it by computer analysis.
And due to the different levels also make Fibs harder to analyse.
It is better to think of a level as a Zone area rather than a specific price level.

Whether it works well on just trends only is not the only observation.
On most days, for example on E/U you can see even though it may not be consider trending, prices do still bounced off Fib levels and at times reversals occur at Fib levels.
  • #291
  • Apr 20, 2013 9:41pm Apr 20, 2013 9:41pm
Quoting GEfx
I agree 100% with you. When and where they can be used to shed some light on PA, they are very helpful. Where they fail to shed light, use something else. Regarding currencies: I am operating under a theory that fibs work best where bankers are dominating the PA, and work less where commodities (or something else) may be driving PA. No empirical data on that, but its something rattling around in the back of my head. Or, maybe it's pivot points!

Would like to see some charts on how you see when Bankers are driving PA versus when commodities are driving PA.



Actually Pivot Points and Fib are really similar in concept, Pivot Points seem more popular during Pit Traders.
Pivot Points is more simple minded as it is usually specific points for the day and don't change for the day.
Fibs calculation is more complex, as you can have many fib points depending of where you anchor the fibs, and these fibs can change much more easily nowadays with many different swing points throughout the same day.

As there are less Pits trading, all moving to electronic trading and with more people using easier to use computing chart programs, it make it easier to calculate Fib and putting different Fibs on Swing points, so Fib should become more popular in recent years.

Don't understand why so many posters want to talk only about pivot points and other indicators in this thread here, when this thread heading is talking about Fibs.

It probably matters most if we knew what the big traders are really using(whether it is Fib, Pivot Point, Price Zones/Levels or other stuff, etc).
Whatever they are using will drive PA most.
Do you know what are the big traders using most times??
  • #292
  • Apr 21, 2013 12:56am Apr 21, 2013 12:56am
[quote=traade;6623204]Since most people agree that all indicators are lagging whilst using Fibonacci expansion and retracement levels is as good as gambling something fishy must be going on in the brain neurons of the trader who is deluded into believing that remixing known/popular indicators will yield an optimum undiscovered combination which will yield above average consistently. Given the computing power we have today one would expect that by now someone with access to a company, government or university supercomputer would have come up with either a perfect or pseudo-perfect solution of how one can calibrate the right technical analysis indicators. quote]

One of the best posts I've read in sometime.
  • #293
  • Apr 21, 2013 8:01am Apr 21, 2013 8:01am
It's kind of hard to come out with a computer program to tell it what to do, when the person programming it doesn't have a clue.
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #294
  • Apr 21, 2013 8:35am Apr 21, 2013 8:35am
Connect two tops in a downtrend, then you'll know where to go short when it hits the top again. Oh, wait. Never mind. Everybody connects their fib retracement tool like this already. And that's why it's all a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #295
  • Apr 21, 2013 9:49am Apr 21, 2013 9:49am
@foxybunny.
Quote
Fibs calculation is more complex, as you can have many fib points depending of where you anchor the fibs, and these fibs can change much more easily nowadays with many different swing points throughout the same day.

This is where part of the solution lies. The next part is what levels are being watched & by whom.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #296
  • Apr 23, 2013 5:04am Apr 23, 2013 5:04am
There are a lot of people still use Fib I can see. Here is the attachment EU Daily Fib, notice the 23.6 level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.png Size: 20 KB


Here is the attachment EU H1 price at the time of this post, notice how price just "pokes" this 23.6 daily fib level and cannot break through. Prob lot of buy limits have been taken.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh1.png Size: 18 KB
back... and more dangerous.
  • #297
  • Apr 23, 2013 5:11am Apr 23, 2013 5:11am
Quoting foxybunny
It probably matters most if we knew what the big traders are really using(whether it is Fib, Pivot Point, Price Zones/Levels or other stuff, etc). Whatever they are using will drive PA most. Do you know what are the big traders using most times??
It is interesting to read the discussion and hear what people think about Fibonacci ratios in price action. You don't need a PhD in Rocket Sc. to observe or think or conclude with great insight and clarity. In fact, the opposite often seems to be true

It may be surprising to many that these kind of discussions have been going on for decades and that the incidence of Fibonacci levels in price action is an established discipline with a documented and well-practiced Principle. You can read a brief overview in this article by Robert Prechter

When considering what data and indicators "big" traders may be watching for clues, I would argue as an Elliottician and firm believer in the pervasive influence of Fibonacci ratios in Life, that it doesn't really matter what the "big" traders watch or use, since PA will unfold according to its Fibonacci script anyway. Traders may or may not feel compelled to take action at certain Fib levels and that depends which mode (actionary or corrective) PA is currently in. According to the Elliott Wave Principle it is all happening subconsciously: while some may fight the trend; others ride it; but there comes a Fibonacci defined level at which the mass psychology reaches consensus and trend changes absolutely - regardless of central bank or 'big' trader influence.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #298
  • Apr 23, 2013 5:48am Apr 23, 2013 5:48am
In order to even get the grasp of fibo (and fractals) ppl should read the appropriate literature. Aristotle's books are the best to read in order to understand The Golden Ratio - I used capital letters because if it weren't for fibo I believe daytrading as a traders' discipline wouldn't exist. If u take a chart (doesn't matter which timeframe) and put fibo levels only u will have more ''good signals'' than if u used any other non-ratio indicators (ma, momentum, channels etc...).
I read almost all posts and it really seems to me that nobody read what is fibo, they just use it...That is ok, but one shouldn't ask themselves what is it if they use it - especially with success...
Ratios exist to a certain measure everywhere. When u take a move (on the market) and put ratios, u will find that certain levels (it's a miracle) are supports/resists. And fibo is the best proxy for these levels. Elliot waves are based on fractal analysis and whadaya think where do fractals come from?
It is the main precipice of TA that every trend (up or down) has a number of intermediary mini trends which retrace the main trend line. But look at it this way - let us suppose that fibo is nothing, it means nothing in PA. Moreover, let us suppose that a certain security has made a move of 10 points (doesn't matter which timeframe). Draw fibo levels. There are 8 levels u can draw in that range (10 points) - 0, 2.36, 3.81, 5.00, 6.18, 7.63, 7.86 and 10. Now try to figure out what is the mathematical probability for the value to reach these levels in the next retrace move? It is huge. Point being that STUFF ALWAYS RETRACES, if it weren't so then we'd be all bankrupt.
Just a small example, yesterday i opened short on S&P cash futures at 1565,5 (took profit 1 hour ago) - check out yesterdays top on the futures. Check out 50% of the move from 1596 to 1536. Exactly. Now notice another level - 1573 - it is a break out level out of upwards channel and it is ultraresistant in S&P chart since it is the 61,8% retrace from the bottom of 1536. And this is what makes trading so simple (if u're not a greedy bastard that is) - If price touches that level I will short it, with a tight stop loss. And if trader loves one thing that is a non-triggered tight stop loss like yesterday's short of 1565,5. All impossible without fibbonaci.
  • #299
  • Apr 23, 2013 6:04am Apr 23, 2013 6:04am
Quoting DemoAntares
Elliot waves are based on fractal analysis and whadaya think where do fractals come from?
You make a good point about Fibonacci and the notion of the Golden Mean being well documented, but I'd say that reading Aristotle is overkill. For those who are interested, sure go ahead, but Aristotle does not apply the Golden Mean or any of his theoretical mathematics to charts. Neither does Leonardo Fibonacci for that matter. To say that Elliott Wave is based on fractal analysis is partially correct but as a discipline it is 100% cognisant of its basis in Fibonacci maths.

The first person to document the incidence of Fib ratios in price charts was Ralph N Elliott in 1938 and from this he postulated the Wave Theory. However, in the 1970's Robert Prechter extended the Principle to social psychology and the notion that collective mood causes the swings we observe in price action.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #300
  • Apr 23, 2013 6:09am Apr 23, 2013 6:09am
Yes it is overkill definitely, but if someone wants to know what it is there is a good philosophical approach. Anyway, after today's PA I will add maybe something more to this thread since I will be trading S&P and it is approaching my level for shorting it nicely.
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