Trading EURUSD only

Short @61 Size: 1.29%

PA below 5SMA RSI3-50

30M not near demand zone or fibs or HSR

1M sequence of lower red candles

Existing long @ 3090

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1366582464

EUR Battle seen at 50 MA

 

1. Initial thrust from Apr 4 low took price straight to 50 day MA
2. After pausing, price broke above but quickly slapped back below 50 DMA
3. Past 3 trading sessions have seen daily closes below 50 DMA
4. Look for fresh leg lower to quickly test the 200 day MA - key level to watch
5. Holding below 200 day MA at 1.2933 will open up much lower targets
6. Chart: http://link.reuters.com/nem57t
7. See (More) for more

EUR/USD orders for today


EUR has had some movement during the ultra-thin liquidity of Monday morning in New Zealand but as the major Asian centres enter the market it has stabilized somewhat. The order book is a little sparse, but sell orders 1.3090/1.3100, with buy stops above 1.3105 mixing it with more sellers through to 1.3120.
Downside – initial bids around 1.3050 and then 1.3000/10

Euro getting support on dips from diversification flows

 

1. EUR/USD was whippy in early Asia in a 1.0436/94 range
2. EUR/USD getting support on dips from ACB diversifying fresh USD reserves
3. Data last week showed China reserves rising as BOJ liquidity supporting EM
4. ECB expectations muddled as some hint of need for more easing
5. On Friday German FinMin Schaeuble suggested ECB should withdraw some liquidity
6. EUR/USD buyers tipped around 1.3000/05/sellers camped around 1.3100

Pipnography for Pip Pervs


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1366591999

EUR Tech Trader I follow

Short @ 1.3067

The counter-trend rally off the April 4 low is likely over. Last week saw a thrust above the 50 day MA to resistance around 1.32 but bears quickly slapped it back below the average where it has remained for 3 daily closes. A break of 1.30 will see the 200 day MA tested quickly at 1.2933 - holding below there will then target the Apr 4 low at 1.2740.

Dollar biased up vs. majors this week

EUR/USD
1st support - 1.3001 (minor)
1st resistance - 1.3202 (moderate)
2nd support - 1.2962 (minor)
2nd resistance - 1.3228 (minor)

EUR/USD (last 1.3080) is likely to trade in a lower range this week as the slow stochastic measure is falling from the overbought level. Support is at Wednesday's low of 1.3001. A breach would target the April 8 low of 1.2962, and then the 200-day moving average, now at 1.2932. An extension of the fall would target the April 5 low of 1.2900, and then 1.2740, the four-month low hit April 4. Resistance is at Tuesday's high of 1.3202. A breach would tilt the near-term outlook positive, targeting 1.3228, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the Feb. 1 high of 1.3711 to the April 4 low of 1.2740. An extension of the rise would target the Feb. 25 high of 1.3318, and then 1.3342, the 61.8% retracement level. EUR/USD is likely to consolidate in the weeks ahead as long as it stays above the 1.2740 support. The weekly chart is mixed as the weekly MACD indicator is bearish, but the weekly slow stochastic measure is rising from the oversold level. A drop below 1.2740 would reinstate the negative medium-term view, opening the way down to the Nov. 13 reaction low of 1.2661, and then to the July 24, 2012 swing low of 1.2042.

Out of short @ 61 for +13

Reason: PA above 5 SMA and RSI3 +50

Still long @ 90

why not, we never know it's stile can go much higher !?

Pip Porn


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1366628400

Possible EUR rate cut?
The new ECB hymn book on communication is to not rule out a rate cut, conditional on new information. We had this from Weidman last week, and similar comments are being made by Constancio [ID:nF9N0B700G]. As with Weidmann, Constancio reiterates that a further 25 bps rate cut would not have much impact, echoing Draghi's message from the meeting on April 4. This message, according to Constancio, was that a rate cut was discussed, the ECB was looking at incoming information, focused on developments in inflation ("first consideration") and, at the same time, the economy "continued to give signs of weakness." As we highlighted earlier, the euro zone PMI and German IFO data will be very important in terms of new information for the ECB with a May cut possible.

Downside favoured for the euro

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...&reply=1#reply

JK on FX

Short video and commentary

http://www.jkonfx.com/

THINKING about taking a long.

Reason: PA above 5 SMA , closing in on 15 SMA and RSI# +50

However 30M PA near resistance and 1M has red candles so will wait for a change

Ok so as some of you know I was bullish for a pullback in the overall downtrend and posted some CoT data. I was looking for 1.32 and possibly 1.33 (with high doubts). Well we were just shy 25 pips of 1.32. Now I have shorted since gone long and shorted on friday and accumulated about 80 pips. So now I am short at 3080 as I am now looking for a continuation down. I will analyze some COT data this week and post my comments. I have a sl set at 1.3079 so I have 1 pip locked in (always, always, always) protect your trade and let her run.

Happy Monday, happy cafe, and happy trading.

When entering the markes use your margin, your stop losses (condoms), and patience before you enter the trade. Give market time to breathe and some space.......

Long @ 48

Reason PA above 5&15 SMA RSI3 +50

30M PA still fighting resistance but gaining but not near FIBs or Supply zone

1M white candle

That is why I got out brother. I never try to think about a trade if where it might go as I have a pea brain. I am better at letting the TA indos tell me.

I plan my trade and trade my plan. The goal is One Good Trade At a Time.

Glad I booked those +13 and went long @ 48 which is now +1

EUR tech

EURUSD: No change: “After stalling for several days at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the Jul’12 low to the Feb’13 high at 1.3075, the EURUSD had surged to its highest level since February 25, when the inconclusive Italian election results were announced. But the bullish momentum was short-lived, with the pair falling right back below 1.3075 within a day. The daily RSI uptrend is starting to falter, suggesting that a big move higher will be necessary to sustain a near-term bullish outlook. For now, further upside should be capped by 1.3200/05, at which point 1.3245/325 should be a major zone of resistance above. Declines should be supported by the 8-EMA/21-EMA confluence zone at 1.3020/65, and given retail sentiment, we expect the EURUSD rally to continue.”

EUR Sticks To Middle of Range

 

1. EUR/USD -0.2%; GBP/USD -0.01%; USD/JPY -0.06%; EUR/JPY -0.3%
2. Crosses, expiries help keep EUR/USD in middle of 1.30-1.31 range
3. Offers @ 1.5250, looming U.K. GDP number weigh on cable
4. USD/JPY still threatening 100.00, EUR/JPY techs point toward 1.32 area
5. Largely data-free day: existing home sales 14.00GMT Monday
6. EUR/JPY chart: http://link.reuters.com/rep57t

Just so you guys know my mistakes , i was trading "by the way" today , overwhelmed with work and stuff and i got stuck with a long from 1.307, indos fooled me. In such situations i really want to open another account so i can trade while waiting on this trade to come back ITM. Bottom line is : don't trade when you are not following the MKT.

This is my third messed up trade for the last 2 months, and once again MsMarket put me on my knees and made me whisper prayers. The only good thing is that as always trade size is micro.