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Trading EURUSD only

  • #43,241
  • Apr 20, 2013 6:44am Apr 20, 2013 6:44am
Since its the weekend and we are holding our pip pip here is the EUR TA/FA forecast for next week.

I like to post short news points and this one is is full of things to consider so here is the link:

http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-forecast-april-22-26/
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #43,242
  • Apr 20, 2013 7:34am Apr 20, 2013 7:34am
Experts Forecast Currencies Poll

A pool of selected traders and analysts gives us their targets for the major currencies for the week, month and quarter to come. They also indicate the whole trend in these periods.
The report includes a visual table for each pair, as well as the comments that the experts might have added to their analysis.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...&reply=1#reply
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #43,243
  • Apr 20, 2013 7:50am Apr 20, 2013 7:50am
Euro Outlook Muddled by Italian Politics, Weak PMI Data

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...medium=twitter
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #43,244
  • Apr 20, 2013 2:21pm Apr 20, 2013 2:21pm
Engulfing pattern on Wednesday and gravestone doji on Friday: is it going to be a bad week for the Euro?
Attached Image
  • #43,245
  • Apr 21, 2013 10:25am Apr 21, 2013 10:25am
With Italy in the spotlight this short article may be of interest while we are waiting for the Casino/Battlefield to open.

Shakeup in Italian Politics – Two Options for Italy and the Euro

http://www.forexcrunch.com/shakeup-i...-and-the-euro/
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #43,246
  • Apr 21, 2013 11:55am Apr 21, 2013 11:55am
Christopher Vecchio

Continues to stick to 38.2% Fibo (Jul'12 low to Feb'13 high) at 1.3075, daily RSI uptrend threatening break

http://charts.stocktwits.net/product...jpg?1366376295
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #43,247
  • Apr 21, 2013 11:57am Apr 21, 2013 11:57am
The 50 days moving average is threatening heading towards the one at 200 days. In case the golden cross occurs, then we will get the confirmation of a new bear market start.
  • #43,248
  • Apr 21, 2013 12:11pm Apr 21, 2013 12:11pm
Early Prices

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1366571468
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #43,249
  • Apr 21, 2013 12:42pm Apr 21, 2013 12:42pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Early Prices {image}
Price is still moving... Was up at 1.309 a few min. ago and is currently at 1.3079
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #43,250
  • Apr 21, 2013 12:51pm Apr 21, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting livethedream
Price is still moving... Was up at 1.309 a few min. ago and is currently at 1.3079

Yup, looks like a gap up which will end up being the high on the day, drifting lower as the day moves forward, filling the gap, then testing the lower support trend line (which will break imo) .

Looking for 1.28 by Friday.
"It is not enough to have a good mind; the main thing is to use it well"
  • #43,251
  • Apr 21, 2013 1:11pm Apr 21, 2013 1:11pm
Quoting livethedream
Price is still moving... Was up at 1.309 a few min. ago and is currently at 1.3079
AMEN bro. Liquidity is very thin at this time on a Sunday. The price is up from Friday's close. Have a long @90 looking for a short now.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #43,252
  • Apr 21, 2013 1:26pm Apr 21, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting elisab
The 50 days moving average is threatening heading towards the one at 200 days. In case the golden cross occurs, then we will get the confirmation of a new bear market start.
They crossed twice this month, and IMO they don't look much like crossing again!

@ QuikFlipp "Yup, looks like a gap up which will end up being the high on the day, drifting lower as the day moves forward, filling the gap, then testing the lower support trend line (which will break imo) .

Looking for 1.28 by Friday."

Any background on this opinion except gap up, or is this just a feeling? (I don't want to be hard on you, it's just that I don't see it so I need to know what do I miss)

elisab you know that both engulfing and doji need confirmation and they might be as well a trend up confirmation just as trend reversing formation. If you ask me the formations you posted just show that Euro is in trouble, but it might resume it's north direction.

My trade (if I trade today and monday during the day) will be based on price trying to fill the gap, finding support @ monthly R1 (1.304) matching MA50 (daily) with MA200 just below it. So 1.304 will be the level @ which I would Buy If I see it holds, target 20 pips (extended to 50 if it moves nice, then to 100 if I'm lucky ) Check on that 1.3175 where it might find resistance (previous weekly) and sell from there ... that's before i have my new weekly bar opened and with the new bar the new weekly pivots will come up (auto calculated) ... After so much gibberish from me I will put it simply - I won't trade before i see where it's headed and from there I'll use goods's advice and sell on rally or buy on dips.

ET JD I was thinking today ... does your platform averages two trades in same direction or it keeps them as separate trades?
Mind you, my first name is Bad. ..."Nunc Id Vides, Nunc Ne Vides"...
  • #43,253
  • Apr 21, 2013 1:35pm Apr 21, 2013 1:35pm
Quoting sypherBG
They crossed twice this month, and IMO they don't look much like crossing again! @ QuikFlipp "Yup, looks like a gap up which will end up being the high on the day, drifting lower as the day moves forward, filling the gap, then testing the lower support trend line (which will break imo) . Looking for 1.28 by Friday." Any background on this opinion except gap up, or is this just a feeling? (I don't want to be hard on you, it's just that I don't see it so I need to know what do I miss) elisab you know that both engulfing and doji need confirmation...

Simply my friend, Looking at the H&S developing, friday PA indicating bears coming in, and weak data this week should bring the EU back under 1.30 to test those lower supports.
"It is not enough to have a good mind; the main thing is to use it well"
  • #43,254
  • Apr 21, 2013 1:40pm Apr 21, 2013 1:40pm
Quoting QuikFlipp
Simply my friend, Looking at the H&S developing, friday PA indicating bears coming in, and weak data this week should bring the EU back under 1.30 to test those lower supports.

TY bro! now I see what you're talking about.
Mind you, my first name is Bad. ..."Nunc Id Vides, Nunc Ne Vides"...
  • #43,255
  • Apr 21, 2013 1:52pm Apr 21, 2013 1:52pm
Quoting sypherBG
TY bro! now I see what you're talking about.
You are welcome bro. I think there will still be some attempt to move higher, but it will again fail to break higher and further downside will be tested through the week.

GL Green PIPS around
"It is not enough to have a good mind; the main thing is to use it well"
  • #43,256
  • Apr 21, 2013 2:14pm Apr 21, 2013 2:14pm
Quoting sypherBG
ET JD I was thinking today ... does your platform averages two trades in same direction or it keeps them as separate trades?
Brother they have to be separate and here is why I take this approach:

a. Each trade stands on itself. They (L/S) weren't placed to offset risk rather the TA suggested a short term trend that I might be able to scalp a few. The entry for each position is based on TA primarily PA in relation to 5&15 SMA w/ RSI3 +-50 on the 10M chart.

b. My long and short are not at the same price.

c. Are different sizes. Smaller for Long position and larger size with Short.

It makes sense and seems to work for me so far.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #43,257
  • Apr 21, 2013 2:29pm Apr 21, 2013 2:29pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
{quote} Brother they have to be separate and here is why I take this approach: a. Each trade stands on itself. They (L/S) weren't placed to offset risk rather the TA suggested a short term trend that I might be able to scalp a few. The entry for each position is based on TA primarily PA in relation to 5&15 SMA w/ RSI3 +-50 on the 10M chart. b. My long and short are not at the same price. c. Are different sizes. Smaller for Long position and larger size with Short. It makes sense and seems to work for me so far.
Since you forwarded the info to me, i have replaced my stop loss with the pyramid strategy which I have found to capture the move aginst my position, then close, and input a trade in the same direction as my original trade so my BE is moved closed to my current entry, the midpoint is BE and I can close my position out for profit sooner, or cut a smaller loss

Many thanks again.
"It is not enough to have a good mind; the main thing is to use it well"
  • #43,258
  • Apr 21, 2013 2:35pm Apr 21, 2013 2:35pm
Gap Reason?

EUR/USD above 1.3050 after Napolitano reelected

EUR/USD is last at 1.3069, gapping up to recent session highs at 1.3079, from previous weekly close Friday around 1.3050, following IMF meetings, being specially sharp the gains against Yen, with EUR/JPY breaking above the 130 handle from Friday close at 129.85, last at 130.38. The pair is up +0.14% for the week, with a soft economic agenda ahead until later on US existing home sales at 12:30 GMT.

Another news coming from the weekend is Italian president Napolitano reelection. As reported by the Independent UK: "After the weeks of stalemate, Napolitano can formally begin one of the head of state's most important tasks once he takes a new oath of office. He must figure out who has the best prospects of putting together a new government, with enough support to successfully work with Parliament and survive a mandatory vote of confidence."

Immediate resistance to the upside for EUR/USD shows at recent session highs 1.3079, followed by Thursday's high at 1.3097, and Friday's highs at 1.3128. To the downside, closest support lies at Friday's lows 1.3046, followed by Wednesday's lows at 1.3000, and March 08 lows at 1.2955.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #43,259
  • Apr 21, 2013 2:46pm Apr 21, 2013 2:46pm
Quoting QuikFlipp
{quote} Since you forwarded the info to me, i have replaced my stop loss with the pyramid strategy which I have found to capture the move aginst my position, then close, and input a trade in the same direction as my original trade so my BE is moved closed to my current entry, the midpoint is BE and I can close my position out for profit sooner, or cut a smaller loss Many thanks again.
Hi Brother I am always happy when someone wins.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #43,260
  • Apr 21, 2013 2:48pm Apr 21, 2013 2:48pm
EUR up Early on Italy news and E/J

 

  1. Italy elects a President & EUR/JPY demand early
  2. Tripped stops under 1.3040 then jumped to 1.3094 in first hour
  3. Early 1.3036 low & NY 1.3130 high initial sup/res
  4. Consolidation around 1.3100 dominates - set to extend
  5. Italian news a positive, but no EUR game changer [ID:nL5N0D80NM]
  6. Chart: http://link.reuters.com/cem57t

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
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