Technical Analysis Fallacy

Hi FtI

I hope your Mum is feeling better soon, I cared for my Brother & Uncle...My Hat's are off to you.

Pearl Diving these days isnt as 'tough'as it was. The hardhat days were tough..lost divers every neap,cementary in Broome is full of them, lost 415 luggers in 1 cyclone early 1900's I started a few years after the hard hats but still on the luggers, these days multi million dollar vessels but the industry died when the Chinese freshwater pearls flooded the market 98-2001..many hit the wall. 2 main players now Paspaley and Kaillis family.
Its the only diving I ever did 10,000 hours bottom time..still dont believe that myself!even though I am more adapt under the water than on the land :-) We used hookah systems and drifted the pearl beds behind the luggers with the tide, hard work but like walking on the moon everyday...you never get sick of it.
The boys on the rigs do a far tougher deco sessions etc and the pay is very poor, we sit in 1 atmoshere and every atmosphere down(30 ft) is an extra 64 pounds per square inch on the body so imagine the pressure on them.Our limits as 'drift divers' were set in late 90's at 45 metres..but on a good day a top diver could earn $4-$6,000 AUD..lowest would be $1500AUD 10x 40 minute drifts... so after 6-9 days you made pretty good dough...but there was also the years when you would come in after 10 days still owing for stores :-) pretty much like the fx sorry I just found the icon thing..now there will be trouble

The Japanese ladies in Japan put us all to shame,they still freedive today!The nose apparatus is for equlisation of the middle ear instead of pinching their noses with their hands.

As for the barracks here, the wife knows there is only one General, though she stands on a pedistal and has done for 25 years, she realises any break in the ranks would remove the pedistall...so yes it's just the Great White..

As for stops, I have a margin limit with Dukascopy and I have my eyes glued whilst active, i have that priveledge, I try to stay out of the way of news NFP,Central Bank puppets and the like etc but the 20-30 pip stop which is inculcated in all 'teachings' to me, is a sucker punch. I cannot measure how many times personally( a ways back) and associates and friends have said.."Got me by one pip and turned" but gee if it wasnt for that one pip Ide be up 100 pips!"
Each to there own, but as I have the priveledge to monitor and 'manage' I prefer to stay in the fight.. not get knocked out with a jab..
When the other side can see where your FLOT line is...all they have to do is lob or air assault and your toast. Isnt guirella warfare about camouflage?
Active positions are part of a whole, but stops have lots of colour and averages,and percentages and CAN BE SEEN FOR MILES! :-)

Thankyou for noticing the 'duality of thoughts' I have attached my market watch screen..this is my live battle screen if you will. I have another with the copper chart/oil/gold/esmin/dowmin/dollar index/another with cac/dax/ftse/HS/Nik/Oz which are also naked except the software tells me a new H/L with a bubble

I watch the price action intently and then if I suspect something,notice a change in sentiment,I will plan appropriately sometimes in that planning,I will reach for a tool(armour) ie. cci for 'rate or speed' of divergence or a 55 or pivot I will bring that onto other charts(not my main ones) to see the history of what happened when and is there a possibility of repeat(as an example). These can be seen in the price action but sometimes I find speed of information is assisted with the tool.

I find that market price can be self fullfilling but who does the fullfillment?the trader?the machine?who looks at what?how has he she been taught?(Good traders use stops!)everyone is taught this..by whom?..the market maker taking the other side of your trade?.Supplying this multi million dollar piece of software for "free" to you to trade ???
If there is one road out of town and everyone is on it and they take the bridge out...?

Im sorry if I am rambling or talking too much but I love this... I agree there is a duality of thoughts maybe more than 2, but in context my confidence in the trade comes from the price action as all tools are lagging and as such ..history..but history at times repeats!

Also to note.. I will glance at say a 200 sma, say its 60 -100 pips from the current price I will watch the price action over maybe a week or longer in how the price converges or diverges from that 200 and the rapidity it uses..just looking for a tell..nothing concrete, but this is their weapon so if they are moving it around the field..how are they moving it? what position is it pointing to?how fast did it get there?what activity is around it? etc etc I am sure you get my meaning...I glance at these ...I study the price action.

What I do not use them for is to cloud my thoughts with bias..my dear old Dad sold cars for a living..he always used to say 'let them name the price'.
I suppose that makes me a bit of a counter puncher,but because my troops are few, I have no other choice, dont think I would want one..'draw them to my terrain'ST'when weak let them think your strong..when strong let them think your weak'ST

Any input here would be greatly appreciated.

Important NOTE: Please do note I havent said all this to presume arrogantly I am right, only to clarfy to you my MO so you have a clearer picture of my thoughts..the internet can confuse image at times, I do not want to ask someone a question, then stand there telling them the (my) answer or defending a bias..the exercise would be futile for all parties.


This is so refreshing Fti, Thankyou

Regards

Li

yes try not fight the flow.
I think scorpion is still not die and present over my solder. what I think, that over a time I developed a muscular memory I act same way when same situation arises,
so the root case is now known. corrective action is needed.

Hi Fti

Just posted prior to reading this, agree in total. Thankyou.

May I ask are T1 and real money combating themselves only and the retail are the collaterall damage that the brokers feed on?
If that be the case are all T1/real naked or ... biased?

Regards

Li
Just doing some squat exercises while I wait your reply :-)

山還有一山高,強沖

谢谢版本多，我觉得我是在蜜罐中罐.

Hi price action gata.org very imformative of the dealings in the paper and real precious metals markets and their manipulations and why.

In 1943 they burned marks as it was cheaper than wood for heat..always think of that when people ask about paper.

Paper currency is about control not money..gold/silver is about retaining freedom and purchasing power...the only true wealth is what resides in ones Soul..in my humble opinion.

regards

Li

Barracuda..more aggressive than sharks..and a great feed.

I feel a great analogy coming on..look for the birds,following the fish from above the dolphins feeding beneath and the fishing boat right in the middle.

Did crayfishing prior to pearling as a kid, lots of tuna poling for bait(dog tuna) always trawlwed from the luggers for mackeral..good eating those mackeral.. maybe we should go fishing sometime?

I have had dophins in our bow wave for days on end on some trips...magnificent andthey do to like their reward..

PS You know, I have thought again about what you said ... I'm moving to bar charts for a training drill.. I will let you know...Thankyou fti..great work.

suspected that.

yes you have no problem with using indicators.
You not robotic mindset.
You using em like an analyst.

Had suspect that, but nevertheless needed sound word of caution, just in case.
I always felt peeps who exposed to the elements ofnature, have very different perspective to managing stuff.
Mostly i believe their accrument in managing the now and the unexpected.
You are indeed very experienced.

Oh about mom, is actually i getting some worried.
Since my 2 heart attacks and the LV thrombus bugging my life, She has been my core lifeline.
When she unwell, I get sorts worried. But she one tough person, if only i was half as tough.

No worries, Li, have a read on the thread when you have time.
I can feel you mostly have your own well developed MO, and i cannot detect any faults yet.
May even learn some stuff from you experiences, if you would indulge.

There many good peeps here, we can share much experiences.

:rofl :
ya the jap girls. skin divers.
I could sit forever waiting for them surface. Talk about tough.
Is hard believe what they capable of until see with own eyes. Had wondered before.
have these girls developed gills in stead of lungs?
I didn't dare elaborated too much less peeps think this fti some kind pervert.
sit watching em girls, also mostly that they very uncovered. some here may think naughty thoughts of me.
I ever did try the pegs on nose. But was not effective for me.
I am the type like equalise by using breath holding at changing pressures.
maybe i just enjoy the cracking sound in ears more.

I see your chart setup, is very clear, you have birds eye view on terrain.
suspect you also have very developed focus on attention to details.

And yes, i watch for the birds hovering, and when i spot porpoise nearby when they dancing around the school,
Normally use them mark out where is suspected, most dense part, of the school.
i drop a few wire lines and drag with claw hooks, afew on every line and i run right into the school.
Also used many coloured feathers tied on the wires , just in case the tuna thinks me not attractive enough.: )
Can get a full ice box of tuna, last a few weeks. If i go out for long trips when i was younger.
I am sucker for raw tuna , esp near belly meat, and always carry lots washabi.: ) my must have when eating raw.

Oh about you going fully naked. Please do it slowly , allow your self time and usefullness, seemlessly incorporate to what you doing now.
Not do any shock treatment, keep eye on bottom line see if the adjustments, reflect in the bottom line performance, is most important.
No get sudden disorientation.

tell me how its coming along from time to time. Or if you having any issues, can discuss find a solution.

nice have you here, welcome to the thread.

regards

oh Li, i just noticed i missed 1 point you raised.

Me i love trade those economic figs and times when markets riots.
When i was market making at T1 , was the rush it brings. Real battles.
Everyone's firing at you. But with superior fire power and market access, is difficult they get any fatal shots at me.

Now i use the experiences from that, running with the riots, every which way when have desperate peeps running all directions.
I find i very calm , and running rings around them, easy pips.

Maybe if you very calm and well capitalised, esp if have lots foreign cap leeway, you may like try one of these sessions. esp the us fig sessions.
is about 8:30 Ny time( non daylight saving time) mostly a few times a week.
This one of my addictions. The rush. Is important park egor, and just take what market gives. Never forcing and well money managed mindset.
And esp no bias, just flow without greed nor expectations.

If you walking into this sessions loaded with positions, then don't. You will never have a clear head. I even make point square books before walking into these sessions.

regards

ai ay googoo, ok ok i seeing,
Big battle, ai ya , where's my helmet.
new generation battles?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBSldlZNs0A



extreme egor.

lets hope this not develope into ww trend?

so much anger.
ai ya she forgot dump the most important pieces.

don't be naughty hor,

i talking about her shoes hor.

be careful your minds hor.
wrong mindset can get into lots trouble hor.

regards

can get caught long when should be selling and caught short when should be buying hor.
I know some you thinking all indicators indicating that i talking about something else.
please open your minds. attention to details.

nice clean cars there too.
notice they not divided road directionally. but guessing same laws exist.
yet all can moves.
That because peeps tends yield way for other users. even to trishaws.
no need use law make for order?
interesting.
need watch out for others moving, so no one's over speeding hor.
peeps need be aware of whats happening in front of them.

Some places , even walking need have directional lanes.
You go wrong direction in wrong lanes, they give you the middle fingers.
like shooing sheep.

but maybe is only like this here. may not be universal.


regards



This small quiet path,
Where you can hear heartbeats.
Together with you, This just the begining.

The clouds in the sky, they floating around,
Where they will drift to, no one knows.
You should not be like the clouds in the sky,
drifting aimlessly until you disappears.

To take the small paths have much ways
To take the mainroad, there is only one way.
Which way you want to go,
You should let me know.

The clouds in the sky, they floating around,
Where they will drift to, no one knows.
You should not be like the clouds in the sky,
drifting aimlessly until you disappears.

To take the small paths have much ways
To take the mainroad, there is only one way.
Which way you want to go,
You should let me know.

小路
演唱：鄧麗君
庄奴 詞
湯尼 曲
這小路靜悄悄，
聽得見心兒跳。
我和你在一起，
這還是頭一遭。
天上的雲到處地飄，
飄到哪裡不知道。
你不要象天上的雲，
飄啊飄啊飄得不見了。
走小路有無數，
走大路隻一條。
你要往哪裡走，
也該讓我知道。

actually i very suprised at the song.小路
never knew until now, thanks for the link googoo.

this the small path song i know of, but different musicians.



regards

ok markets on.

euro 13072/79
cable 15228/38

have news office of JMOF saying targeting economic recovery in few years in G20 statement.

no serious figs releases except for the normal string of us figs exppected week ahead.
May have much statement releases from G20 wrap up.

thursday will be thinner markets due to holidays and the us unemploment figs.
so not be too agressive thursday until the figs out.

nothing extra ordinary on calander until thursday us zone.
lets see if any one wants make the week more intersting.

i not feel may have much , but am moving stone rolling pin down from 1.55 cable.
lets see if i can get in sync with market.


regards

euro 65/70 on 130handle
cable 152 25/35

instresting if usdyen can pop above par. had been for longtime since.

cable was taken up at 40.
weighted down since.
could be topping before tokyo comes on.

ok scouts on standby
now waiting for spreads close in.
still wide 29/34

i deal 28/32
27/30

off bid
30 comes

no size , market not happy with me
they quoting wide 27/33

i giving 27
offering 29

i trying 25/29

24/28

they feelinf pressured
refuse quote
i offering nearly in their bid.
they want me hit i wait

i gave again 27
still 28 comes

waiting someone lose their cool.

they trying me euro cable bid scuttering.
i giving 26

23/26

was taken

24/28

27 deals
scout size full

next group.

30 comes

25/29 i deal

euro 62 i gave
they still bid

euro 61/63 i deal

euro i lost euros at 63 and 64
scout all short in euro & cable
ok i going make some coffee
wait for tokyo show hand

wow bonus, found nice puffs and donuts in kitchen go with the coffee.
be back after microwaving them.


ahhhh back.
early tokyo will be in in a bit.
not much happening yet.

seeing some euro cable crosses in play
seems some interest coming in to markets.
semms buying euro cables.


try see if they real
i on cables 24/27 i deal

nope nothing
off me
i wait tokyo
they can see better

hi Li.

am i your foe?

i don't know man..
you asked me to expand,
then i just answered the subject as long as i understand.

if it's not suit to your perspective,
it's not my problem, isn't it?

i told you that i'm still learning,
then how can i become your foe? what's the benefit in it?


Regards

ok tokyo in

cable i 21/24

done 24 i sell

23/26 now

euro yours

63 i sold

cable 26 i sold

cable 22/25

off
cable 20/23

done 23 done
21/24 now

off 22/25