Trend system EA needs back testing | Forex Factory

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Trend system EA needs back testing

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 18, 2013 2:27pm Apr 18, 2013 2:27pm
Hi all,

I have automated my trend system the trades any currency on the hour chart. The system has been profitable so far but need it back tested for two years to check if its profitable long term. Can anyone help, I will give a copy of the ea to anyone who can back test it for me?

Many thanks
  • #2
  • Apr 18, 2013 10:04pm Apr 18, 2013 10:04pm
I could do this. Which pairs are you most interested in? I'd have to see if I can get the full 2 years of data.

Quoting craig811
Hi all, I have automated my trend system the trades any currency on the hour chart. The system has been profitable so far but need it back tested for two years to check if its profitable long term. Can anyone help, I will give a copy of the ea to anyone who can back test it for me? Many thanks
  • #3
  • Apr 18, 2013 11:17pm Apr 18, 2013 11:17pm
Thanks mate ,

The Eur/usd , aud/usd or nzd/usd one year would be fine just want to see if it likely to be profitable long term. Please send me your email and I will send over the ea. Thanks again.
  • #4
  • Apr 19, 2013 12:40am Apr 19, 2013 12:40am
Quoting craig811
one year would be fine just want to see if it likely to be profitable long term.
Backtesting is worthless to check the profitability of an EA. The only way to see the profitability is forward on LIVE account.

Backtesting should be used only to verify if the EA respect the strategy rules.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #5
  • Apr 19, 2013 1:02am Apr 19, 2013 1:02am
Thanks for the advice,

Well forward testing is going very well, just wanted to know when it hits a losing trade what max impact could be as I am only closing trades using 40 trailing stop with 4 / 1 risk reward hard stop or close at opposite signal.
  • #6
  • Apr 19, 2013 1:57am Apr 19, 2013 1:57am
Quoting craig811
... just wanted to know when it hits a losing trade what max impact could be ...
What you will know is just something based on past datas.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #7
  • Apr 19, 2013 2:23am Apr 19, 2013 2:23am
Quoting FerruFx
What you will know is just something based on past datas.
And in 12 months time a forward test will also have been conducted on past data.
20 pips a day isn't too much to ask . . .
  • #8
  • Apr 19, 2013 2:29am Apr 19, 2013 2:29am
Quoting RaptorUK
And in 12 months time a forward test will also have been conducted on past data.
Forward means with real time datas. This isn't backtesting.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #9
  • Apr 19, 2013 2:59am Apr 19, 2013 2:59am
Quoting FerruFx
Forward means with real time datas. This isn't backtesting.
I didn't say it was, but when it is complete it will have been done on past data, that is a fact. So what you said applies equally to a Backtest and a Forward test . . .

Quoting FerruFx
What you will know is just something based on past datas.
Perhaps you meant something other than what you said ?
20 pips a day isn't too much to ask . . .
  • #10
  • Apr 19, 2013 3:06am Apr 19, 2013 3:06am
What I meant is that a backtesting result can't tell you what you can expect in the future.

Forward trading is what you really get.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #11
  • Apr 19, 2013 3:15am Apr 19, 2013 3:15am
Quoting FerruFx
What I meant is that a backtesting result can't tell you what you can expect in the future. Forward trading is what you really get.
actually you need BT to know if what you have built have any chance of being profitable. If the BT shows good curve then there is a high chance that FT will produce good result.

Who wants to wait for 6 months demo FT just to see if a bot is profitable?
No Risk No Reward
  • #12
  • Apr 19, 2013 3:27am Apr 19, 2013 3:27am
Quoting fmfx1
actually you need BT to know if what you have built have any chance of being profitable. If the BT shows good curve then there is a high chance that FT will produce good result. Who wants to wait for 6 months demo FT just to see if a bot is profitable?
If you think that future results (live account) will be the same as backtesting ... fine ... but you will be very disappointed.

Be aware that the real time market isn't based on what happened in the past.

So many EAs users think that a perfect equity curve in their tester is the sign of future profitability ... Most of them are totally wrong and had suffered big losses.

Again, tester is perfect to see if the strategy is according to the defined rules ... nothing else.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #13
  • Apr 19, 2013 7:48am Apr 19, 2013 7:48am
Quoting FerruFx
If you think that future results (live account) will be the same as backtesting ... fine ... but you will be very disappointed. Be aware that the real time market isn't based on what happened in the past. So many EAs users think that a perfect equity curve in their tester is the sign of future profitability ... Most of them are totally wrong and had suffered big losses. Again, tester is perfect to see if the strategy is according to the defined rules ... nothing else.
i didnt say future result will be the same as BT result, i am only saying if the BT result is OK then there is a good chance that FT result will be good.

If your BT result is bad then there is 99% chance that FT result will be bad as well. If your BT result is good then there is a 99% chance that FT result will be good.

I have never seen any ea whose BT result is bad and then produces good result in FT, perhaps you have?.

Regards
No Risk No Reward
  • #14
  • Apr 19, 2013 8:01am Apr 19, 2013 8:01am
Quoting fmfx1
If your BT result is bad then there is 99% chance that FT result will be bad as well. If your BT result is good then there is a 99% chance that FT result will be good.
This is exactly where people are wrong.

There's so many things involved in a backtest which differ from live that a good BT might give a bad FT and vice versa ...

Did you noticed that in most case, the exact same backtest done during market open and during week-end gives different results ? Easy to find why ... This is one of the reasons that makes backtests useless ...
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #15
  • Apr 19, 2013 9:36am Apr 19, 2013 9:36am
Quoting FerruFx
This is exactly where people are wrong. There's so many things involved in a backtest which differ from live that a good BT might give a bad FT and vice versa ... Did you noticed that in most case, the exact same backtest done during market open and during week-end gives different results ? Easy to find why ... This is one of the reasons that makes backtests useless ...



understood, thats why i said 99% chance.

Still i havent seen any ea whose BT result is bad and then gives good result on FT. Anyone seen one?
No Risk No Reward
  • #16
  • Apr 19, 2013 1:39pm Apr 19, 2013 1:39pm
Quoting FerruFx
What I meant is that a backtesting result can't tell you what you can expect in the future. Forward trading is what you really get.
Neither can a forward test, it can tell you what you will get now but it is no more or less accurate at predicting the future than a backtest.
20 pips a day isn't too much to ask . . .
  • #17
  • Apr 19, 2013 1:42pm Apr 19, 2013 1:42pm
Quoting FerruFx
Did you noticed that in most case, the exact same backtest done during market open and during week-end gives different results ? Easy to find why ... This is one of the reasons that makes backtests useless ...
Only by people who don't know what they are doing, I admit that is the majority. All the Strategy Tester runs I have done can be repeated at any time of day or any day of the week, it makes no difference.
20 pips a day isn't too much to ask . . .
  • #18
  • Apr 19, 2013 3:30pm Apr 19, 2013 3:30pm
I agree with FerruFx backtesting is only any good to test that the EA functions as it should, I am currently forward testing an EA on a Demo account that makes a good solid profit yet if I run it on the BT over exactly the same time period it comes up with a totally different result, part of it I suspect is because the EA has some MTF code and the BT does not handle MTF very well. When I forward test the EA on a Live account once I am satisfied with the basic set up it will probably produce very different results yet again. A forward test on a Demo can produce very different results to a forward test on a Live account as testified to on other threads on this forum where certain EAs have worked really well on a Demo account but failed on a Live account. So its pretty hard to rely on any results concerning the BT or a forward test on a Demo, Just my 2 cents worth
Trade what you see not what you hope
  • #19
  • Apr 19, 2013 5:34pm Apr 19, 2013 5:34pm
Quoting RaptorUK
Only by people who don't know what they are doing, I admit that is the majority. All the Strategy Tester runs I have done can be repeated at any time of day or any day of the week, it makes no difference.
Let me give you the reason why a backtest on week open and on week-end will give you different results:

Backtester uses the current platform spread. That means if the spread was 20 pips at friday close, all your backtests on week-end will be done with a 20 pips spread.

And on market open, if you run a backtest around news release and the spread is 50 pips ... Do you get the picture ?
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #20
  • Apr 19, 2013 5:36pm Apr 19, 2013 5:36pm
Quoting RaptorUK
Neither can a forward test, it can tell you what you will get now but it is no more or less accurate at predicting the future than a backtest.
This was not the point.

The point was that a BT can't tell you what real time trading will give you when you will go LIVE.

Past results are not a guarantee for live results ...
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
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