Trading EURUSD only

1. Europe’s attempt to break 1.32 failed (More)
2. Failure came amid spurious rumors of downgrade for Germany & France
3. Soft equity markets also weighed on EUR
4. Comments from Weidmann and Ex-ECB Bini Smaghi also hurt EUR
5. Pair hit low of 1.3001; clear break of 1.30 opens the door to 1.2900/20

Pipnography for Pip Pervs


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1366237210

Hello all,
quick update on Euro FX futures, Dollar Index and S&P500 (no pictures sorry, but you can check the video on my blog).

Euro-Dollar FX currency futures

While lots of people think this is the start of a resumed move lower, I think this move lower is due to failure of a continuation higher in the lower timeframes.

Scenario 1. The upmove in the Euro is still intact and the current move lower is going to be an opportunity for bulls to add to their long positions. We have support starting at the 1.3040 area and if price does not pierce the 1.30 level, we could see a lift starting here into 1.3280 and then 1.3410 area before a larger retrace.

Scenario 2. If the 1.30 level is pierced on the downside price is going to move into the next area of anticipated long participation starting at 1.2980. Below 1.2926 there will still be the 1.2915-20 area of previous support.


Dollar Index futures.

I am sure a lot of people are interpreting today’s move like a confirmation that the Dollar bulls is still intact. Last week, however, an important extension area starting at 83.20 has failed. Failure came with DX price piercing the 82 level on the downside. The current move higher is probably due only to major pairs (EUR/USD, GPB/USD and USD/CAD) setting up for the next measured move (maybe with the exception of the USD/CAD which is trading the next traditional long, after failing the current sequence). The Dollar Index is trading the next short setup and resistance area starting at 82.70 and will keep its bearish stance below 83.15


S&P500 futures.

The S&P500 started profit taking right at the 1,593 highs, second target of the larger move started in November last year.


Scenario 1. The up-move in the stock index has not ended, but just paused. The next long setup and strong participation on the upside can be found starting at the 1,526 area. If price never moves below the 1,508 level we could witness a continuation higher in the summer into the 1,624 first target, and even higher into the 1,675 level.
Scenario 2. However, below 1,508 price could slide into the next larger (weekly) long setup and participation higher down at 1,416. I don’t think the FED will allow it at this stage.

As always I am interested in your thoughts.
Have a great eve.
Cheers
-fibstalker

I am posting this because 3 out of 3 times the Cycle Gurus have been DEAD on. Down to the days. For what it is worth:

As markets near a change in trend they generally become more volatile. As an example, when EUR/USD peaked just above 1.6000, the first peak was 1.6020 in April 2008 and it took until July and a second test and subsequent fresh high at 1.6040. In the interim it chopped back down to 1.5285, up to 1.5850 and back down to 1.5350 before that last and final test. If indeed EUR/USD is making cycle peak here it should be choppy and if it's not then it's less likely to be a significant high. As cycle analysis is the purview of the cycle gurus we''ll quote their last published EUR/USD view "The euro is then headed higher into the week of April 8 or the following week and our target for this upmove will become the 1.3225 area".

The cycle gurus noted back then "Provided this target area holds the downtrend will resume into early May and this overall weakness could last up to several months longer. Our further objective for the downtrend is the 1.2425 area." So far we've held the 1.3200 level and providing we continue to do so, the cycle gurus' are bearish. They're not the only ones, a large New York investment bank/commercial bank highlights the risk that the DAX and EUR Stoxx 50 are sitting on critical support and if it cedes, they're talking about a further 10% drop from current levels, that would certainly put EUR/USD under pressure.

Our stuff tells us that if 1.3200 holds it would be a very typical weak counter-trend rally that bounced off -2.0 16-wk M/A Bollingers (average ccy cycle 15 1/2 weeks) and has tested the average itself this week (1.3175) One of our Asia desk's good contacts noted last night that he had an eerie sense that the EUR/USD rally was in jeopardy after it struggled to gain 10 pips whilst EUR/JPY managed a decent pop. He noted corporate sellers circa 1.3200 and what he described as a "stealth" offer which he suspected were "macro types". Well the cycle gurus have many followers in Asia and the Middle East, particularly amongst reserve managers so that stealth offer would be consistent with the cycle gurus' view. Oversold conditions start to build on the ultra-short term models between 1.2925/1.3010; short term models 1.2885/1.3020; intermediate models 1.2675/1.2955; and medium term models 1.2690/1.2755. This tells us that we're unlikely to see a collapse in EUR/USD, but more of a zigzag chop lower, buyers appearing when technicals are too stretched with an eye to reload on bounces.

There's an old adage about US equity marts "Sell in May and go away" referring to the reasonably frequent investor apathy in the summer months. US equity marts rallies hard yesterday only to give most if not all of it back today. That followed Monday's blood-letting exacerbated by the bombings in Boston, today it's been "mysterious packages & letters" sent to politicians one of which had traces of Ricin. Hardly conducive for risk on stocks. The gold collapse has unnerved many and after yesterday's bounce we saw weakness again today; oil markets are also in retreat as is copper. Tech stochs sold off on poor earnings reports by US companies, all in all a pretty toxic mix for risk takers - the only excuse, free central bank cash and no yield to be had in "safe" investments.

Traders have been getting reports of gold miners hedging future years production, something that's been unheard of in 7 or 8 years and there's whiff of that going on in energy markets. Toss in the rapid growth of gold and commodity ETFs backed by physical over recent years and every time the commodity complex drops, there's more supply coming to market. At the very least, longs should be looking for rallies to bail on; short sellers will be quicker to pull the trigger given the difficulty EUR/USD is having breaking 1.3200 and corporate hedgers should be looking to take out some insurance on EUR receivables, particularly with continued rumblings about Slovenia and loose talk that they (and perhaps other European sovereigns) may take a similar tack as Cyprus and dump some of their gold reserves to alleviate the bite in growth the austerity programs are levying. ECB's Weidmann today said that a rate cut is possible if conditions demand it. Rumours today of German growth disappointing and driving a fresh recession across the area all seem to be prompting those that need to protect the value of their investments to look for hedges - one of the reasons why EUR/CHF is re-testing the 200-DMA. As volatility is normally a sign of trend change (or resumption) the most likely direction in this environment is lower.

Cheers for the info, always good to read keep it coming.

You are welcome brother. I will indeed.

And more Pipnography for Pip Pervs


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1366244225

A fall below 200 MA suggests a top is in place...

 

1. Normally hawkish ECB Weidman's comments has taken away bullish plank for EUR
2. Weidman left door open for interest rate cut if upcoming data warrants it
3. Previously EUR bid vs JPY and USD due to aggressive BOJ and Fed easing policy
4. Support for EUR/USD at 1.2915/25 and break below would suggest top in place
5. The 61.8 of the 1.2740/1.3202 move at 1.2915 and 200-day MA at 1.2925
6. EUR/USD direction in Asia to be dictated by EUR/JPY flows

Interesting quote..."A gold top foreshadows a stock market drop; a stock market drop signals an economic descent, and an economic descent signifies the end of the sick status quo..."

I am good for tonite its almost bed time for old JD.

Existing long @ 1.3053
Existing short @ 1.2990

Even if I wanted to short its on the edge of my MM Price Saturation zone currently @ 50 pips so since MM is KING I stand down.

i believe your long has been hit few seconds ago

Thanks brother I just got up and see that it has.

Thinking about exiting here when the PA goes below the 5 SMA and the RSI3 goes below 50

JK on FX

Short market video and commentary

http://www.jkonfx.com/

Pipnography for Pip Pervs like me


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1366281178

Top pickers may focus on 1.3100

The abrupt about face for EUR/USD and false break of the 100-DMA at 1.3155 should breed interest to fade rallies. Key drivers of more bearish sentiment now stem from the dovish tone of once hawkish Weidmann, the surprise of the German downgrade by Egan Jones and the risk-averse spin from commodity markets. 1.3100 may focus more bearish thinking. The top of the weekly Ichi cloud is 1.3107, and close that looked likely yesterday may now prove elusive. Medium-term a return to the base of the cloud would be 1.2741, a pip from the year low. That may be popular - the decline could occur without breaking any new ground, so it would fit with popular range-biased strategies, too.

Hi.. I'm a new forex trader. Correct me if i'm wrong. I see the EU weekly chart now like Head and Shoulder, is that right? and are you saying that the EU gonna touch 1.3100 then it will drop to 1.2741?. Sorry for the broken english. . I just a new forex trader trying to learn more. TQ and if you have any method which can help the newbie like me, can you share it? My English is not so well.. sorry.

Psst. @goods. I'm SH GBPAUD at 47881 TP 46540. What do you look for for exit strategy?

JD, these were limit orders, correct. Their size is weighted by their position on your range (1.2 to 1.4). Price is near the middle of that range, so they would be trades of similar size. Am I correct?

out of long @ 53 for +4

Reason PA dropped below 5 & 15 SMA and RSI3 under 50.

Thats 3 strikes so bye bye trade there will be more. Not adding another short yet though and watching for a another long

I'm out of my short man... never never never trade just based on someone's entry.
I locked in 5 pips of profit to let it run when I posted. I got stopped out but none the less I did extract from the market.
I will post setups but people need to take at their own risk and use exit strategies based on how they trade.
It does not look like GBPAUD is going anywhere anytime soon so I suggest you lock in at at least a couple pips profit and let her run.
If you get stopped out you will have done so with at least some pips.