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Price Action in Day Trading by Dadas

  • #921
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:16am Apr 15, 2013 5:16am
Quoting parsfx
Gold, What a terrible crash!
What a wonderful opportunity!
Already 1000 Pips!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusd-w1-fxsalt-ltd.png Size: 70 KB


PS.

Did they tell you to buy GOLD?
Did you believe them?
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #922
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:22am Apr 15, 2013 5:22am
Quoting limprobable
Hello, I see nothing this morning on Eur/usd. No trade.
Why?

It depends when you were looking.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-m30-fxsalt-ltd.png Size: 87 KB
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #923
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:25am Apr 15, 2013 5:25am
Quoting Dadas
Why? It depends when you were looking. {image}
looks like that chart is showing move lower...

edit: while i look at it longer, i am unsure
  • #924
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:32am Apr 15, 2013 5:32am
Quoting msetai
looks like that chart is showing move lower... edit: while i look at it longer, i am unsure
First of all, Welcome!

We do not think, here.
We make analysis.

Nothing looks like anything, until you have made a full analysis!

Show me your charts with the full analysis from MN down to M30.

Then, tell me and others what it looks like!
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #925
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:34am Apr 15, 2013 5:34am
Quoting Dadas
First of all, Welcome! We do not think, here. We make analysis. Nothing looks like anything, until you have made a full analysis! Show me your charts with the full analysis from MN down to M30. Then, tell me and others what it looks like!
still much to learn about PTECZ then some charts
  • #926
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:43am Apr 15, 2013 5:43am
Trade with CSCZ & Historical PTECZ
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdm30.png Size: 43 KB
Persian Gulf forever
  • #927
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:48am Apr 15, 2013 5:48am
Quoting msetai
still much to learn about PTECZ then some charts
I understand!

So, please start learning, now!

Do not say what you think, or you do not think.
Do not say if you are sure or not sure.

The Price and the Market do not care a little bit what you think!
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #928
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:51am Apr 15, 2013 5:51am
Quoting parsfx
Trade with CSCZ & Historical PTECZ {image}
It is still against the Trend!

I think your TP is too High.

But, your trade, you must see.

Edit: I see you hit your TP! Good for you!

Still, you are only scalping!
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #929
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:53am Apr 15, 2013 5:53am
Quoting Dadas
I understand! So, please start learning, now! Do not say what you think, or you do not think. Do not say if you are sure or not sure. The Price and the Market do not care a little bit what you think!
yes this is true

do you mind sharing your m5 or m15 ( a smaller tf ) for EU?
  • #930
  • Apr 15, 2013 6:11am Apr 15, 2013 6:11am
@parsfx
What is smarter to take?

Long at retrace or Short at Trend?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-m30-fxsalt-ltd.png Size: 79 KB


In other words:
Price may be inside H4 Consolidation, so you get lucky both ways.
But, if Price has stronger Bearish tendency, you are safer at Short on top.
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #931
  • Apr 15, 2013 6:13am Apr 15, 2013 6:13am
Quoting msetai
yes this is true do you mind sharing your m5 or m15 ( a smaller tf ) for EU?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-m5-fxsalt-ltd.png Size: 79 KB
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #932
  • Apr 15, 2013 6:27am Apr 15, 2013 6:27am
@parsfx

Maybe I am talking too much.

If you considerred all the factors, and Daily Range,
if you considerred your Pip Potential and made the entry
with full awareness of what you were doing, then, I congratulate you!
You have got it!
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #933
  • Apr 15, 2013 6:35am Apr 15, 2013 6:35am
Quoting Dadas
It is still against the Trend! I think your TP is too High. But, your trade, you must see. Edit: I see you hit your TP! Good for you! Still, you are only scalping!
Exactly
I'm always scared when the trading because I do not believe.
And when the trade is in profit soon close trading
So I have a loss of all benefits lost
Maybe it is because I do not plan to trade.
Persian Gulf forever
  • #934
  • Apr 15, 2013 6:42am Apr 15, 2013 6:42am
Quoting parsfx
Exactly I'm always scared when the trading because I do not believe. And when the trade is in profit soon close trading So I have a loss of all benefits lost Maybe it is because I do not plan to trade.
That is Ego!
You do not need to belive!
You need to understand , first, practise, second, know, third.

Understand - Practise - Know

Follow the PTECZ!
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #935
  • Apr 15, 2013 7:36am Apr 15, 2013 7:36am
USD/CHF
Monthly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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From 8 August 2012 UCHF seller area dominant (seller = Taking Sell Order/Closing Buy Order) after that PTECZ as I can see there is no PTECZ identified on this MN chart in fact last month price is trying to get into PTECZ but didn't make it so seller still in play on monthly.

Weekly
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PTECZ occurred on 1st week of February 2013 from there the trend is up until PTECZ occurred again on 2nd week of March 2013 and as I can see on the chart after trying to take price higher than PTECZ high on last week of March 2013 seller step in before it reach high of PTECZ so on weekly I can assume seller still dominant.

Daily
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on 28 March 2013 PTECZ occurred confirming daily is trending down and until now there is no PTECZ identified on daily chart so I assume seller in play and if this downtrend continue PROBABLY the PTECZ on 1st week of February 2013 is the destination (price move from consolidation area to consolidation area) but we'll see where the PTECZ show the way (since we don't know where and when the price is going).

H4
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on H4 chart the nearest PTECZ happen 8 hours ago from that I have information that seller is in pay on 4 hours time frame because the price already broke from consolidation zone but not clear because the candle isn't closed yet

M30 (sorry Mr. Dadas I skip the H1 since M30 already represent the PTECZ on H1please forgive me )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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As I can see on M30 chart PTECZ already happen and the price already retraced to it which confirmed the downtrend the seller win and you know what I missed the train but it's okay if my analysis or my way of reading the chart story is correct I'm going to be really - really happy, so Mr. Dadas how is it?
  • #936
  • Apr 15, 2013 7:42am Apr 15, 2013 7:42am
Quoting finaclefx
Its another great week,good way to start it.DO WE STILL HAVE DOUBTING THOMAS IN THE HOUSE??? God Bless You,Dadas!!! {image}
OK, OK, Thank You!

Now, tell me something.

Are you trading real, or demo?
Why I ask:
You are doing a very strange thing.
6 x 0.5 Lot = 3 Lots

OK, I can understand that your strategy assumes you are ready
to risk 3 Lots and that is a certain % of your Balance which you are ready to risk.

Now, you are distributing the 3 Lots over 6 instruments.

Why? What is the reason?

Is it because you read that when you distribute your maximum Lot
over more than 1 instrument, you lower the risk?

That is true, but, as always, it requires thinking!

You are trading 6 almost identical JPY pairs.

How are you lowering your risk, in this situation?

What difference does it make if you put 3 Lots on EURJPY,
or you put 6 x 0.5 Lot over 6 XXXJPY pairs?

If you had distributed the 6 x 0.5 Lot over six completely different instruments
not close related, than it would make sense. You could lose 2, win 4, for example.

This is the logic behind Lot distribution!
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #937
  • Apr 15, 2013 7:50am Apr 15, 2013 7:50am
Quoting Dadas
OK, OK, Thank You! Now, tell me something. Are you trading real, or demo? Why I ask: You are doing a very strange thing. 6 x 0.5 Lot = 3 Lots OK, I can understand that your strategy assumes you are ready to risk 3 Lots and that is a certain % of your Balance which you are ready to risk. Now, you are distributing the 3 Lots over 6 instruments. Why? What is the reason? Is it because you read that when you distribute your maximum Lot over more than 1 instrument, you lower the risk? That is true, but, as always, it requires thinking! You are trading...
Hi Dadas
I do that to from time to time.
If you want to play single JPY currency sentiment then instead of playing one pair its better to open whole JPY basket.
For example If you believe JPY will continue weakning then there is no point in buying EURJPY only just becouse you are vurnerable to EUROZONE turbulences.
Buying all available JPY crosses spreads the risk nicely and redirects the outcome to JPY strenght/weakness only.

Keep it Up
  • #938
  • Apr 15, 2013 8:22am Apr 15, 2013 8:22am
Quoting zarach
USD/CHF Monthly {image} From 8 August 2012 UCHF seller area dominant (seller = Taking Sell Order/Closing Buy Order) after that PTECZ as I can see there is no PTECZ identified on this MN chart in fact last month price is trying to get into PTECZ but didn't make it so seller still in play on monthly. Weekly {image} PTECZ occurred on 1st week of February 2013 from there the trend is up until PTECZ occurred again on 2nd week of March 2013 and as I can see on the chart after trying to take price higher than PTECZ high on last week of March 2013 seller...
Sir, you are a good student!
First to post full analysis!

My chart is a little different, because of different time, but you will see.

Now, please follow:

USDCHF MN:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf-mn1-fxsalt-ltd.png Size: 68 KB

We must consider the Candle of Green Zone as PTECZ, because it is very near the previous Candle.
Sometimes you must be flexible about PTECZ when Candles are the same hight or almost the same hight.
Also, when Candle is Doji or almost Doji type, but only very few Pips.
The Candle before the Gap, on your chart is PTECZ, but it is not important to this Price.

USDCHF W1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf-w1-fxsalt-ltd.png Size: 70 KB

Now, on W1 chart I just move the PTECZ to the ones which fit best the present Price levels.

USDCHF D1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you wish, you can leave the W1 PTECZ, because they give you the General Picture.
On D1 you find the the last PTECZ for present High level, and
the last PTECZ for Low level.

USDCHF H4:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On H4 we optimise the PTECZs to the ones more near.

USDCHF H1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf-h1-fxsalt-ltd-2.png Size: 77 KB

On H1 we optimise even more near, depending what time we are looking.
Please, always check H1 and M30, because not always you will have PTECZ on both!

USDCHF M30:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf-m30-fxsalt-ltd.png Size: 80 KB

Now, on M30 you have potential levels at start of day.
You can measure how many Pips from PTECZ to PTECZ and compare with Daily Range.
You measure with the crosshair.

Here, you see everything on M30, now.
On other pairs, maybe not so clear.

Here, Pip potential is ca. 35 Pips, so no need to look on smaller chart for scalping.
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #939
  • Apr 15, 2013 8:25am Apr 15, 2013 8:25am
Quoting markup
Hi Dadas I do that to from time to time. If you want to play single JPY currency sentiment then instead of playing one pair its better to open whole JPY basket. For example If you believe JPY will continue weakning then there is no point in buying EURJPY only just becouse you are vurnerable to EUROZONE turbulences. Buying all available JPY crosses spreads the risk nicely and redirects the outcome to JPY strenght/weakness only. Keep it Up
Sorry, can not see the logic?

Spread risk when risk is the same?

It makes no difference if I lose 6 x 0.5 or 1 x 3.

There is very little chance there will ever be big differences on those pairs.

They are crosspairs.

They are all, ultimately related to USD.
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #940
  • Apr 15, 2013 8:32am Apr 15, 2013 8:32am
Quoting Dadas
Sorry, can not see the logic? Spread risk when risk is the same? It makes no difference if I lose 6 x 0.5 or 1 x 3.
Lets say you know that BOJ central Bank will continue weakning JPY currency for long time period.
Now, you clearly want to be short JPY currency and the best way to do that is to buy all currencies against the JPY.

LONG 1 LOT EJPY
LONG 1 LOT GJPY
LONG 1 LOT AJPY
LONG 1 LOT UJPY

This way your exposure is:

SHORT 4 JPY (50% of portfolio)
LONG 1 EUR (12.5% of portfolio)
LONG 1 AUD (12.5% of portfolio)
LONG 1 USD (12.5% of portfolio)
LONG 1 GBP (12.5% of portfolio)

This way you are basically playing on JPY index.

Thats a lot better & safer way to speculate when you want to profit from strenght/weaknes of one currency. If in any case something unexpected happens on any other currency like EUR then it wont affect your total position much becouse EJ long is only 25% of the whole position. On the other hand if you would open only 4 lots long EJ then in that case you are basically speculating on both currencies when you want to be exposed as much as you can to JPY.

You dont want to have that:
SHORT 4 JPY (50% of portfolio)
LONG 4 EUR (50% of portfolio)
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