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Trading EURUSD only

  • #42,901
  • Apr 14, 2013 11:11am Apr 14, 2013 11:11am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Just for an idea of how important money management is to me: My biggest account risk 0.05% monthly start balance + 5% of monthly profits as my half sized position (so full size is double that contract size). My medium size accounts risk 0.50% monthly start balance + 5% of monthly profits as a half size position My small size accounts risk 5% monthly start balance + 5% of monthly profits as a half size position
R2R you are a WISE man. This is a sensible MM strategy what will leave you positioned to trade for the long haul.

It is not what you make now but how much you make for the entire duration.

Longevity in this business has its own meaning of success. As the 95% fail we 5% succeed of their backs.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,902
  • Apr 14, 2013 11:12am Apr 14, 2013 11:12am
Quoting mok1one
It's the same with all levs. 0.01lot with 1:200, 1:100, 1:50 . The contract size is still the same. Only difference is how much money You invest in it. 0,01lot with 1:200 is 5€ your own investment. Contract size still 1000 (€) . 1000 / 200(lev) = 5€ 0,01lot with 1:100 is 10€ your own investment. Contract size still 1000 (€). 1000 / 100(lev) = 10€ 0,01lot with 1:50 is 20€ your own investment. Contract size still 1000 (€). 1000 / 50(lev) = 20€ 1Pip with all of those lev 0,01lot = 0,10cents $ = ~0,078€...
I'm wondering here
If the contract size is the same with 1:100 and 1:200 by using the same lot amount then why should i invest more by choosing 1:200? don't you think it's better to invest lest and increase your available margin ?
  • #42,903
  • Apr 14, 2013 12:53pm Apr 14, 2013 12:53pm
Quoting Evanescence
I'm wondering here If the contract size is the same with 1:100 and 1:200 by using the same lot amount then why should i invest more by choosing 1:200? don't you think it's better to invest lest and increase your available margin ?
by choosing 1:200 you invest Less. The bigger the lev the smaller your own investment.
But you are going to the wrong direction imo. Why do you wan't to increase your available margin? So you can put more money in and get more out? You have to keep in mind that you can also lose more money that way.

I do think it's better to invest less. That way you can lose less if the trade does not go your way. But with a lev. that suits you.
But i don't see the point of increasing you available margin by changing leverage. You got to have a proper MM. Without it you will get more and more closer to blowing your account.
  • #42,904
  • Apr 14, 2013 1:19pm Apr 14, 2013 1:19pm
IMO 200:1 leverage is insane risk unless you counter it by having VERY VERY SMALL position sizes.

There is no free lunch or free money (without risk). Only the air we breath is free (for now)

Less leverage will be more money in the long run. It all depends how long you want to survive in this business.

I use 50:1 and that is plenty to get in trouble. That is enough greed for old JD to deal with.

I wish there was a study that showed the length of time a trader survives and the amount of leverage used. I think it would be eye opening and change some minds.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,905
  • Apr 14, 2013 1:36pm Apr 14, 2013 1:36pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
IMO 200:1 leverage is insane risk unless you counter it by having VERY VERY SMALL position sizes. There is no free lunch or free money (without risk). Only the air we breath is free (for now) Less leverage will be more money in the long run. It all depends how long you want to survive in this business. I use 50:1 and that is plenty to get in trouble. That is enough greed for old JD to deal with. I wish there was a study that showed the length of time a trader survives and the amount of leverage used. I think it would be eye opening and change some...

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...

The Leverage doesn't really matter then. If you have same profit/loss per lot per pip ratio, the only thing you can do (or can't do) with different leverage is to hop in a deal Lot size that is big enough to F U up. Meaning that if you use your MM strictly, leverage is something other traders bother to check/set/use, if you calculate MM good enough.

Green pips to all this week.
Mind you, my first name is Bad. ..."Nunc Id Vides, Nunc Ne Vides"...
  • #42,906
  • Apr 14, 2013 1:54pm Apr 14, 2013 1:54pm
Quoting sypherBG
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational... The Leverage doesn't really matter then. If you have same profit/loss per lot per pip ratio, the only thing you can do (or can't do) with different leverage is to hop in a deal Lot size that is big enough to F U up. Meaning that if you use your MM strictly, leverage is something other traders bother to check/set/use, if you calculate MM good enough. Green pips to all this week.
Brother I would agree and add this. Leverage always matters. It is also part of my MM software. It had to be when calculating all open position sizes relative to the price relative to the Max range of the pyramid. The more leverage the lower the max range would have to be unless the account size was amped up.

It then becomes down to the definition of what small is when considering position sizing. It is enough to make my head spin so I wrote a program.

The judge is: Size is just right when you can sleep at night
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,907
  • Apr 14, 2013 3:19pm Apr 14, 2013 3:19pm
EURUSD Is Testing 1.3100 Resistance From Where Price Could Retrace To 1.2900/50

EURUSD extended another 200 pips higher since Friday, so now we are even more confident that a low on EURUSD is in place.
This was expected because of an ending diagonal, reversal pattern placed in wave 5). The recovery from the 1.2747 low is very strong, so we think it represents only one part of a larger recovery that could extend up to 1.3200 in April.
At the moment we are tracking wave A) that is already testing the important 1.3050-1.3100 resistance area back from mid-March where there was also a gap that occurred on 18th of the moment, so this zone could cause a reversal in price.
As such, we would not be surprised to see a top formation around current levels followed by a corrective pull-back in wave B) back to 1.2900-1.2950 zone (NFP report zone) in the next few days.
http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-conten...il-11-2013.png
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,908
  • Edited 4:09pm Apr 14, 2013 3:59pm | Edited 4:09pm
agree low should be done!

Daily chart, price is above topping TL, EMA 50/100/150 and the .38 Fibo from 1.20/1.37 a situation pretty similar to AUD/USD on march 18
and now we know what happend.

Disclaimer: be aware of political interventions



Impressiv results Steve! Hope you decide to STAY my friend!

Edit: Zoom out comparing fractals on daily chart and alingnment of EMA
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 95 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1.png Size: 128 KB
just do it
  • #42,909
  • Apr 14, 2013 4:19pm Apr 14, 2013 4:19pm
If this is the way April is going to end, then we might have a great bullish engulfing pattern!
Attached Image
  • #42,910
  • Apr 14, 2013 6:06pm Apr 14, 2013 6:06pm
EUR Techs

 

  1. Since April 10th, sideways trade around key resistance has been seen
  2. 38.2% fib / several daily highs in early March & 50 day MA all at 1.3100/30
  3. Look for possible pullback to retest 200 day MA (currently 1.2913)
  4. Holding above 1.3130 would be a bullish sign if it happens
  5. Chart: http://link.reuters.com/kyz37t

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,911
  • Apr 14, 2013 7:29pm Apr 14, 2013 7:29pm
EUR Consolidating around 1.3100 after s/t spike

  1. EUR/USD settling below Friday's 1.3110 close after touching 1.3150 earlier
  2. The move was to trigger stops above 1.3140 when the USD/JPY led the USD lower
  3. The key 100-day MA comes in at 1.3152 and should be stiff resistance today
  4. Hourly support has formed around 1.3075/80 with break targeting 1.3035/40
  5. EZ data/news not positive, but weak US data and Fed QE expectations support
  6. Expect range trading to continue in short-term

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,912
  • Apr 14, 2013 7:31pm Apr 14, 2013 7:31pm
EUR Tech Trader

We got long during NY trading on Friday and are targeting a test of the 50% fib. Price first needs to hold above key resistance at 1.3115 where sellers have been apparent. This area is where the 38.2% fib meets the 50 day MA and a series of daily highs from early March. A pullback will hopefully hold above 1.30 round number support - our stop is 30 pips below that.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,913
  • Apr 14, 2013 7:33pm Apr 14, 2013 7:33pm
Pipnography for pip pervs


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1365985985
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,914
  • Apr 14, 2013 9:00pm Apr 14, 2013 9:00pm
I am short @ 1.3092
And
Long @ 1.3131
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,915
  • Apr 14, 2013 9:05pm Apr 14, 2013 9:05pm
China data disappoints it looks like down we go
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,916
  • Apr 14, 2013 9:10pm Apr 14, 2013 9:10pm
Here is my hourly count for the week, hope to see some momentum down for the week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1hour.jpg Size: 258 KB
  • #42,917
  • Apr 14, 2013 9:11pm Apr 14, 2013 9:11pm
Gold and Silver getting crushed
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,918
  • Apr 14, 2013 9:23pm Apr 14, 2013 9:23pm
Quoting sypherBG
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational... The Leverage doesn't really matter then. If you have same profit/loss per lot per pip ratio, the only thing you can do (or can't do) with different leverage is to hop in a deal Lot size that is big enough to F U up. Meaning that if you use your MM strictly, leverage is something other traders bother to check/set/use, if you calculate MM good enough. Green pips to all this week.
That's my point if I'm not going to risk my account by having high profit/loss per lot then it's the same with 1:100 or 1:200
Thanks all for the reply
  • #42,919
  • Apr 14, 2013 9:50pm Apr 14, 2013 9:50pm

  1. The EUR/USD is under pressure and is testing hourly support at 1.3075/80
  2. The USD and JPY are broadly bid in "risk-off" Asia after weaker Chin data
  3. A break below 1.3070 targets Friday's low at 1.3036



Riding this down short @92 is now +17

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,920
  • Apr 14, 2013 10:38pm Apr 14, 2013 10:38pm
Going to bed and setting a BE +2 on my short @98 already +21

Nothing like a free trade to sleep like a baby. Might awake to more than what I have now

 

  1. The EUR/USD is under pressure and is testing hourly support at 1.3075/80
  2. The USD and JPY are broadly bid in "risk-off" Asia after weaker Chin data
  3. A break below 1.3070 targets Friday's low at 1.3036

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
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