Macroeconomic Analysis

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Some notes/charts about December Low Rule.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there is a platform of links for several benchmarks, in order to see the key-prices of the December Low Rule (by Lucien Hooper).
The rule is the following: "When the Dow closes below its December closing low in the first quarter, it is frequently an excellent warning sign."
Use the link with other tickers, in order to obtain the chart of the December-Rule.

► European stocks-benchmarks: $STOXX600, $E1DOW, $EUR, $STOX5E, $DAX, $CAC, $MIB, $IBEX, $PSI, $ATG, $FTSE, $SMI.
► European iShare Funds: EWD, EWG, EWI, EWK, EWL, EWN, EWO, EWP, EWQ, EWU.

► Japan stocks: $NIKK, $INJ, $JPDOW, $JPN, $XLJPNTR, $NK300, ITF.

► Biotech.: $NBI, $BTK, $DJUSPN, $DJUSBT, $GSPPHB, $DZO.

► Financial benchmarks: $W1FIN, $DJUSFN, $DJUSBK; $SPF, $BIX, $XBD, IAI.

► US stocks-sectors: XLY, XLK, XLI, XLB, XLE, XLP, XLV, XLU, XLF.
► US tech.benchmarks: $COMPQ, $TXX, $IXT, $RITEC, $NDX, $PSE, $MLO, $NDXT, $MSH, $DJTTHE.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks: QQQ, ONEQ, DIA, OEF, SPY.
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks: $SPSUPX, IWB, IWV, IYY, TMW, WFVK, EUSA.

► global World stocks-benchmarks: IOO, NYSE W.L.I., ACWI, DGT, EWAC, FTSE/AllWorld, ONEF, VT.

► Currency futures/ETF: $USD, $XEU, $XJY, $XBP, $CDW, $XAD, $XSF, $ZAR, FXRU.

► US Gov.Bond Prices: $USB, $UST, $USFV, $USTU.

► Commodity Indexes: $CRB, $DJAIG, $GKX, $GJX, $GYX, $GPX, $GVX, $WTIC, $BRENT, $NATGAS, WOOD, $BDI.
► Metals: $GOLD, $PLAT, $SILVER, $PALL, $COPPER, RJZ, JJM, JJP, WITE, LIT, REMX, Au/Pt.

► CBOE Volatility & Option Indicators: $VIX, $VXO, $VXN, $RVX, $CPC.

► Breadth Indicators: $BPCOMPQ, $BPNDX, $BPSPX, $BPNYA, $NYA200r, $NASI, $NAMO.

► Rule source.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

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Some notes/charts about iShare Fund on MSCI German Index (EWG).
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous post.

In this post there are some charts about the MSCI fund on German EWG.
See also these charts: 1y -- weekly ema-format -- monthly ema-format -- yearly -- EWG vs. IEV & EZU -- January Rule -- December Rule.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

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Some notes/charts about iShare Fund on MSCI EuroZone Index (EZU).
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some charts about the MSCI fund on EuroZone EZU.
See also these charts: 1y -- weekly ema-format -- monthly ema-format -- yearly -- EWG vs. IEV & EZU & FEU -- January Rule -- December Rule.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

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Some notes/charts about Global Stocks-Benchmarks.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some P&F charts of some global stocks-benchmarks (see attached charts for box-sizes).
All benchmarks shows a continuation-bull a little above the previous 2011 tops, in full impact with the target zones of P&F charts.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

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Some notes/charts about Global Stocks-Benchmarks.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous structural studies: aug.2011 -- aug.2011 -- feb.2012.
❖ Previous short reviews: oct.2011 -- sep.2012 -- aug.2012 -- oct.2012 -- apr.2013.
❖ NYSE W.L.I.: feb.2012.

☒ In this post there are some notes about the IOO, the ETF of S&P Global 100.

Main graphical elements:
* The main lows of the chart, 2002/2003 & 2009, have descending-array (negative sign), but key-tops, 2000 & 2007, have ascending-array (not on ETF but only on index: positive sign).
* Lows of 2010 < lows of 2011, with a full-test of FIB-38.2% (see 2001-lows in monthly ema-format) !!!
* The first main descending line was broken in 2010; the second one was broken in 2012 !!!
* Prices well above the double FIB-50.0% (61$ about).
* Binary levels 67/65$ in according with FIB-61.8%.
* Prices are above the Q/10 and also other main ema.
* The montly candles shows an important candle (oct.2011 as blue candle) with a double figure: engulfed bullish; inside (in bullish status). The target of the inside is still in progress (see n.2 in blue).
* The two caps (gray: 2011 until now; white: 2012) are well coincidents with some giants priceXvolume, with the inside of oct.2011, with a yearly inside 2011, and with the main FIB-levels (targets of gray-cup as n.1, and white n.4 on the weekly chart).
* 2011 yearly candle is a giant inside (see the chart for the key levels & targets). These key elements are in according with giant columns priceXvolume on yearly chart (58/61$ & 49/50$ about).
* With orange boxes is reported a possible bullish-leg equivalences.
* Some statistical measures of volatility (ATR, Slopes, Boll.B., Boll.B.w., Ulcer) shows some divergences on recent lows & tops of IOO (alert signs).
* The average oscillators MACD, PPO, TRIX, Coppock, shows the same divergences of previous oscillators. During the phase post-2008, if there will be a behaviour of curves similar to phase post-2003, then it is possible that IOO has not completed its up-trend.

Notes
Tre previous GraphicalƉetonator in short & medium term chart of IOO-ETF was the top of inside oct.2011 (see FIB-50%, and the giant priceXvolume level of yearly chart: pink-area of previous study. This detonator was successful, with a perfect respect of mid-level of inside during the small-bear of 2012 !!!
The target of inside oct.2011 is still in bullish-progress (n.2 in blue), and now there is a second driver (in bullish-progress): the white-cup of 2012 (target: n.4 in white).
The completion of these two structures will trigger a cascade the other graphical-structures and its targets.
The not completion of these two structure can cause a first bullish-stop of price near to 2011 tops. The next evolution shows the double FIB as natural bearish target.

Price Cluster (levels in weekly ema/1):
◮ 87.56$
◭ 83.10$
◮ 78.09$
◭ 73.48$
◮ 71.41$
❖ 2011-top [weekly ema-format: 68.17$; monthly ema-format: 67.30$; candles format: 69.28$]
▼ 61/62$ (as 50% double FIB)
▼ 53.24/51.37$ (2011 & 2010 lows)
▼ 44.78$ (2008-lows)
▼ 38.31$ (bearish target of gray-cup)

Q/10 or Quadruple 10mo. average (yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma).
FreeStockChart source.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

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Some notes/charts about U.S. Unemployment Rate revision(?).
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there is the curve of Unemployment rate according to work of Shuaizhang & Hu (2013).

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...raph_id=114899
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2013-04-06

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Some notes/charts about Nasdaq/100 PP Indicator.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous studies: aug.2011; nov.2011; june.2012.

☒ In this post there are some notes about a personal indicator (3 curves/frames: blue < red < white; in-phase vs. underlyings; curve without algorithm in red-blue) in order to evaluates the main trend of Nasdaq/100, with a very simple algorithm (data obtained from Nasdaq).
The Nasdaq/100 P.P. Indicator shows an hard anticipatory behaviour, not useful for trading, but useful for the assessment of underlying trends and for the position (short or long) on medium-long frames.
The colored horizontal line is the 1-level: above there is a bullish pressure for underlying; below there is a bearish pressure on underlying.
The main graphical elements are as follows.
▌The key tops & lows of red curve shows a violent 2008/2009 bottom-high, without a real trend in long-term. The key lows (2002 vs. 2008) are in divergences vs. Nd/100.
▌There are important local divergences of red-curve vs. Nd/100 in: intra-yealy lows of 2002; lows of 2004 vs. 2006 & lows of 2005 vs. 2006; tops of 2006 vs. 2007; lows of 2008/2009; tops of 2009/2012; tops of 2012/2013.
▌Blue & red curves post-2009, do not shows divergences of lows (thin pink circles) as in 2004-2005 vs. 2006 (bold pink circle).
▌White curve post-2009 shows a very little divergences of lows according to 2004-2005 vs. 2006 (bold pink circle).
▌Red curve shows an important giant-triangle in close, a very important & interesting structure (GraphicalƉetonator of previous study).
▌All curves shows a buy signal with values above 1-line !!! The double curve red & white shows a buy signal, with red > white.

The Nd PP Indicator shows some short-term buy-signs (vales > 1-line & red > white).
Moreover do not shows dangerous graphical elements on lows post-2009 (see the phase 2004/2006).
Curves shows a continuation-bull above the giant triangle (positive structural sign).
Indicator below the triangle has a possible local SellOff impact on Nd/100 (convergence behaviou vs. 2008 ???).
Only with values below the dark-gray zone there will be a new MeltDown.
Indicator in continuation-bull above the triangle, has a possible bullish impact on Nd/100 with a probable new ascending leg, particularly if in continuation-bull above 1-line.
Curve above the upper horizontal dark-gray area, has a possible Pyroclastic-effect on bullish action of underlyings.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

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Some notes/charts about short-term price-evolution of Au ETF.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous Au charts: long term (june.2011) -- Short term (feb.2013 -- aug.2012 -- may.2012) -- AU & Ag comparative corrections from 2000.
❖ Previous Au vs. Pt: feb.2013 -- may.2012 -- aug.2011 - jan.2011.
❖ Previous Precious vs. Industrial Metals: june.2012 -- june.2012.
❖ Comparative ETF price: Au -- GroupMetals.

PLATFORM PRICES OF PRECIOUS
... Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag ... .
... Re Os Ir Pt Au ... .

This post is a simple up-date of the previous studies on Au-ETF.
On GLD ETF (4h) we can see the following GraphicalContest sept.2011 until mid apr.2013 (key-levels in pink*):
-) bullish double-lows vs. bearish triple-tops (dec.2011-may.2012 vs. nov.2011-feb.2012-oct.2012).
The bearish target of this structure was published in may.2012, about obtained in real-price in less than 1 week (target: 127$ about in 4h ema-format) !!!
This target is in wonderful set-up with two levels obtained from weekly chart: lows of 2011 (red-circle) & the target of bullish H&S of 2008/2009.
From the weekly we can see that the main ema now are well above the prices, with some important bearish-knots 'in-progress' !!!
Se also the full descending-test of prices vs. two main ascending lines, a very dangerous behaviour.
A very interesting structure for GLD is the giant inside yearly candle of 2011 (top/low/area/mid/up-tg/dwn-tg in US$: 185.85/127.80/58.05/156.83/243.90/69.75). Infact with prices (consistently & persistently) below 2011-lows, there will be an hard pressure in bearish-side in order to change the main trend of GLD.
The area between lows of 2011 & the target of bullish H&S of 2008/2009, is the next GLD-GraphicalƉetonator. Below this area it is important to up-date the long-term study.
Compare the levels of this study with the levels of the monthly game insides of GLD (study of feb.2013).

See also these charts: 1y -- weekly ema-format -- monthly ema-format -- yearly -- Au vs. JJP -- January Rule -- December Rule.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

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Some notes/charts about the comparation of the Fib.levels on some stocks-benchmarks.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous Nd/Biotech. study: jan.2013

In this post there is a simple qualitative evaluation of main Fib levels of some stocks-benchmarks, in order to obtain data on the probability of start of important correction of benchmarks.
For AMEX/Biotech. there is a little price-space before the target of gray-cup.
For Nd/Biotech. there are the following elements: a) prices over the top of 2000 !!! b) full-test of a main ascending-line (gray).
Some graphical elements shows the possibility of a correction or side-action of these benchmarks.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

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❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about the comparation of the Fib.levels on some stocks-benchmarks.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous 2012 studies on M.S.35 HTI & Nd/100.

In this post there is a simple qualitative evaluation of main Fib levels of some stocks-benchmarks, in order to obtain data on the probability of start of important correction of benchmarks.
The graphical elements circled shows the possibility of a correction or side-action of these benchmarks.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about the comparation of the Fib.levels on some stocks-benchmarks.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous review on S&P and others stocks benchmarks: feb.2013.

In this post there is a simple qualitative evaluation of main Fib levels of some stocks-benchmarks, in order to obtain data on the probability of start of important correction of benchmarks.
S&P/500, S&P/100, & NYSE/Comp. shows the possibility of a correction or side-action.
Remarkable is the megalithic ''diamond'' structure of S&P benchmarks !!!

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about the comparation of the Fib.levels on some stocks-benchmarks.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there is a simple qualitative evaluation of main Fib levels of some stocks-benchmarks, in order to obtain data on the probability of start of important correction of benchmarks.
These benchmarks (circled areas) shows the possibility of a correction or side-action.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

Dear Brovo1:

Thank you for this thread and the great ideas you share with us. The info is of great interest to anyone who cares about what the markets are doing right now. Fundamentals move the markets and that is a fact. Besides, it lets us know the reasons why some instruments behave the way they do, and coupled with technical analyses, one would make great trades.

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Some notes/charts about CBOE Volatility Indicators of Nd/100 & QQQ-ETF.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous studies on CBOE Volatility & BW Indicators.
❖ Previous Nd/100 & QQQ Volat.Ind.: dec.2010 -- dec.2010 -- mar.2011 -- apr.2012 -- apr.2012.

In this post there are some charts about the CBOE Volatility Indicators (1mo.) of tech.benchmarks, as Nd/100 & QQQ.
In 2013 VXN Ind. & QQQ Volatility Ind. shows an important break of the critical prices-zone of lows 2005 !!!
The lows of 2013 are the historical bottoms !!!
This break is important in QQQ Volatility Ind., and preliminar in VXN Ind.
The possible prices-evolutions in bearish side are the followings (only with prices in continuation-bear below the levels of 2005-lows):
VXN prices-area dark-green, %target 4.0$ (ema-format) or 2.78$ (candles-format);
VXN prices-area green, %target 5.1$ (ema-format) or 2.98$ (candles-format);
VXN prices-area gray, %target 8.1$ (ema-format) or 5.4/5.2$ (candles-format);
QQV prices-area green, %target 3.3$ (ema-format); prices-area gray, %target 6.5$ (ema-format).
A continuation bear below the lows of 1995/2005 increases the probability of important SellOff of this indicator.
An important alert-level is the lows of 2010/2011 in PPO, MACD, TRIX & Coppock indicators.
In 2012/2013 there are no signs, signals or structures, similar to those of 2005/2007.
For these reasons, the main trend in these indicators, is in hard-bearish array.
In order to confirm these data, in the last chart there is the r-spread or H.I. (see below) between CBOE Volatility Indicator 1mo. Nd/100 vs. S%P/100, with 4 indicators (MACD, PPO, TRIX, Coppock).
This indicator is about contrarian to underlyings stocks-benchmarks. A continuation-bear of this H.I. below the gray-band is an important sign of a new possible bullish-leg of underlying stocks.
The key levels for a bearish trend of this H.I. are the ascending blue-line and the lows of 2008/2011/2012.
MACD, TRIX, PPO, Coppock confirms the bearish trend ''in-progress'' of the H.I.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
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ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
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NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about CBOE Volatility & Option Indicators.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous studies on Bullish% & Volatility: jan.2010 -- jan.2010 -- jan.2010.
❖ Previous studies on B&W & Volatility: mar.2011 -- mar.2011.
❖ B&W & Indicators: A, B, C, D, E, F.

In this post there are some r-spread indicators (or H.I.: see below) of CBOE Volatilities (1mo.), in order to evaluates the trends of the related stocks-benchmarks.
The first type of H.I. are curves obtained between the Bullish% Ind. vs. Volatility Ind. (curves ''in phase'' vs. stocks, with important anticipatory behaviours: 2002/2003; 2007; 2008/2009).
The second type of H.I. are curves obtained between the Buy & Write Ind. vs. Volatility Ind. (curves ''in phase'' vs. stocks).
These curves shows important & long-term bullish structure in progress, as C&H or H&S.
Nasdaq curves shows a monstre-array of curves.
From these curves, the main trend in these indicators, is in hard-bullish array.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.

I have compiled lost of information containing my perspective, other FF member's thoughts, as well as articles written by well known financial research companies for those who are interested. Some of this information has already been posted here. Think of this as the:

USD Fundamental Overview for 2013

Bonds are supposed to be the safest of safe investments. At least, according to many of the talking heads on Wall Street — but nothing could be further from the truth right now!

That's because long-term bonds have been driven to astronomically sky-high levels by the most reckless monetary policy in the history of the world ... which in turn has prompted the biggest influx of money into fixed income investments ever!

That pushes prices higher. And since yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices, they have collapsed to miniscule levels, dramatically raising the risk that months and months of income can be vaporized in the blink of an eye!

Just look at what happened in the first week of 2013!

Long-term Treasuries lost roughly 3% of their value in only a few days. That was enough to wipe out an entire YEAR'S WORTH OF INTEREST, given the 3% yield on long-term bonds!

(1st Chart)

Look, the world has been dog-piling like mad into bonds – Treasuries, mortgage bonds, junk bonds, emerging market bonds. We're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars in inflows, the biggest flood of money into bonds EVER.

As with just about every bubble over the past two decades, it's been prompted by reckless Federal Reserve policy. Just like the bubbles in dot-coms, housing, and other asset classes, it was always doomed to burst ...

And it's clear that we're seeing the classic signs that this bubble has already begun to burst right now!

Remember, there is an inverse correlation between Bond Value and Bond Yield. That's why Treasury yields move in the opposite direction of Treasury bond values. Higher Treasury yields mean that the Treasury Department will be forced to pay a higher interest rate to attract buyers. Over time, these higher rates can start to increase demand for Treasury products.

**IMPORTANT**: So what happens to the hundreds of billions of dollars that flooded the Bond market? Well, I would imagine that most of it is going to make its way back into the stock market. A surge in demand for the US stock market does not necessarily mean that all other risk assets will be affected in the same way due to the fact that this "new surge" in demand for stocks suggests a higher demand for US dollars which is the currency used to pay for these assets. As you can see, money will leave the Bond market and make its way to the stock market. I'll repeat this again, this new surge in demand for stocks suggests a higher demand for US dollars which is the currency used to pay for these assets.


PipTrapper's Two Possible Scenarios:

1) USD recovery as the US leads the way to the global economic recovery...

OR

2) If global recovery slows then we get another bearish equity market in a risk averse move with capital fleeing to safety in the USD.

Either way, the USD wins...

Below is a post made by member "PipTrapper" a while back. My reason for posting it is because he does an EXCELLENT job of explaining the fundamental issues and potential results in a clear, precise manner in regards to EUR/USD.

I believe the ECB does want a lower valued Euro against its main trading partners (including the US). The problem is that there is a much bigger fish to fry when it comes to ECB monetary policy. That bigger fish is a combination of interest rates and inflation. Clearly inflation is quite low in Germany, but higher in the peripheral nations. This is due to the "broken monetary transmission channels" the ECB has been crying about for some time now and it has more to do with the insolvency of Greece, Cyprus, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland. Under normal circumstances, lowering the overnight rate would provide sufficient monetary stimulus to help the economy recover, but due to a broken mechanism, the lower rates are not helping where they should (the periphery). Until such time as Spain and/or Italy step up and apply for aid from the ESM/OMT program, that mechanism will remain broken. The existence of the OMT backstop (without being triggered) has helped to stop or at least slow the bleeding, but has done nothing to cure the cut. Along the same analogy, what we have in periphery Europe is an open cut, and as long as that cut remains untreated, the Eurozone will continue to suffer economically. So, yes... capital will continue to flow into the Eurozone and as such the Euro will be propped up, but it will certainly be to the detriment of the EZ's export markets and thus prolong the pain. The EUR/USD pair will still fall though. However it will not be based on Euro debasement, but rather USD recovery as the US leads the way to the global economic recovery... failing which, we get another bearish equity market in a risk averse move with capital fleeing to safety in the USD. Either way, the USD wins and the E/U pair goes down. It won't go down easily though, but that's probably better than a quick drop due to how such a move would be interpreted. A slow and steady fall will be seen as a stable Euro currency whereas a quick drop would solicit more official intervention and delay the Euro's ultimate destination of below 1.25xx. So as long as everything keeps chugging along slowly with no panic in the periphery bond markets, the E/U pair will be allowed to graciously fall to its fair value.

If you want to be bullish the Euro, may I suggest keeping an eye on the EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD pairs as they seem to have a lot more bullish promise than any other Euro cross. Don't buy now. Rather wait for a nice pullback which I believe we will see during Q4 2012 corporate earnings reports over the next few weeks.

Again, the above post was made by member PipTrapper, not me!


Why did hundreds of billions of dollars (or possibly even trillions) flood the Bond market? Member "PrimeStop" says: The fact is that institutional investors and governments rushed to the 'safety' of bonds at the outset of the crisis in 2008 and withdrew trillions of dollars from stock markets in a state of crowd mentality. When broken down, the markets do not work logically - they are driven by human emotion; that is, the desire to avoid losses and to minimize risk. Despite their attempts to appear otherwise, Governments and major institutional investors are no different to John Doe and the vast majority of retail investors.

At the outset of the crisis, fund managers and governments did what was safe - they ran for cover. And they did it en masse; hence the dramatic and powerful downturn as funds were pulled out of stocks. Logic would have said they should have stayed in stocks as the long term historical returns for stocks are significantly better than bonds (stocks have returned almost 6 per cent per year over the past 7 decades, adjusted for inflation). Bonds, on the other hand, offer nothing approaching that, but they do offer 'certainty'. However, there are signs now that fund managers are starting to think the crisis may soon be ending. So the big boys are now emerging from cover and are searching for the higher yields that stocks typically offer.

Those trillions of dollars that have been withdrawn from stock markets which are currently in bonds must return at some time. And crowd mentality (the natural state of markets that are run by human emotion) says that those trillions will be moved in the same direction - back in to stocks.

We also know that a surge in demand for stocks suggests a higher demand for US dollars which is the currency used to pay for these assets.



Where We Are NOW In Our Stock Market "Script"
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Monday, April 29, 2013

Our stock market "script" is still on track…

I've been calling it the "Great Migration"… As regular readers know, it is the idea that Mom and Pop America are about to buy stocks… big time. They can't live on zero-percent interest. Out of necessity, they will migrate away from ultra-low-interest investments (like cash and bonds) and into stocks.

And that will kick the market into a major boom phase.

Our investing script is a three-act play. We've already made some pretty big gains in "Act I." And I keep looking ahead to "Act II." But we're not there yet… Let me update you on where we are today.

Last month, I explained what I think Mom and Pop America will do with their money in the coming years of the "Bernanke Asset Bubble."

The "Bernanke Asset Bubble" is shorthand for my long-term thesis that asset prices – namely U.S. stocks and U.S. housing prices – can and will soar to unimaginable heights, thanks to the Fed's commitment to printing money and keeping interest rates at zero for years.

The first stocks Mom and Pop America will buy when they migrate out of cash are the big dividend-paying blue chips… big-name stocks like Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, and Merck. That's Act I.

Mom and Pop have stuck with this trade. And so have my True Wealth subscribers. They're up 124% on these stocks through the ProShares Ultra Health Care Fund (RXL). RXL's largest holdings are Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer, each making up over 10% of the fund.

We're well into Act I. But I keep looking ahead to Act II and Act III, where Mom and Pop will take on more and more risk. I keep thinking that we must be near the end of this period of "safe" stock-buying, as these stocks have run up a lot.

Our script says the next step for Mom and Pop – Act II – will be to take on a bit more risk and buy Big Tech stock names (like Apple). I still believe these stocks will be the next to soar. But that hasn't happened yet.

Big Tech stocks are dirt-cheap today. The median forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the top eight holdings of the Dow Jones Technology stock index is just 11. That's crazy-cheap! And it gives us an enormous upside opportunity when Big Tech stocks finally take off.

While I'm personally looking forward to Act II getting underway, we're not there yet… Safe, dividend-paying health care stocks are moving higher while technology stocks are still behind.

Once Act II is in full swing, and Mom and Pop see profits on both their big safe names and their Big Tech names, they'll really start to get back into the stock market. Once they start to believe that they can't lose money in stocks, we will move on to Act III in our script…

In Act III, Mom and Pop start buying speculative stocks, like emerging markets (such as India and Russia) and small mining companies.

Today, the Act III trades are incredibly cheap.

Take emerging markets, for example… The table below shows just how cheap the Act III emerging-markets trades are right now…

CountryP/E Dividend Yield P/Book
Russia6.8 3.9% 0.7

India11.2 1.6% 0.7

China12.7 2.1% 1.9

Based on history, we have a legitimate shot at hundreds-of-percent returns, once these trades get going.

But we are NOT in Act III today. These trades – just like gold and commodities stocks – aren't ready for us yet.

Mom and Pop are not into Act III yet. They're not into Act II yet. They have not upped their risk tolerance yet. If anything, their risk tolerance has fallen lately. It will happen… But not today.

So for now, we need to sit tight on our Act II and Act III trades…

In my True Wealth newsletter, we're focusing on our Act I trades. That means safe, dividend-paying stocks, like health care.

I strongly believe in the Bernanke Asset Bubble. I strongly believe Mom and Pop America will keep allocating more and more money to the stock market. And I strongly believe we will see another dot-com-style boom in stocks, ending with soaring stock prices in speculative sectors like emerging markets and small mining companies.

We are not there yet, though. We are still in Act I.

Be patient. Play it smart. Make sure you have money ready for the big boom.

I could be wrong, of course… The script could change along the way. But this has been our script for months, and it has been right so far…

Good investing,
Steve




Important: The Dow/Gold Breakout ...
by Larry Edelson

For a couple of years now I've maintained my view that the Dow Industrials and broad U.S. equity markets were entering a new bull market. One of the tools I used to come to that conclusion back in 2008 was the ratio of the Dow Industrials to the price of gold.

I wrote extensively about it in my July 2008 issue of Real Wealth Report. I also reported on it several times in other pieces I wrote. Today, I want to update the analysis for you.

First some background. At the peak of the ratio in the year 2000, the Dow Industrials would have purchased just over 51 ounces of gold. That's because the Dow was at a high in real, inflation-adjusted terms, while gold was at its bottom at the $255 to $275 level.

During the financial crisis of 2007 – 2009, as equities plunged and gold rallied (since its bottom in 2000) the ratio collapsed all the way down to the 6 to 7 level.

In other words, in terms of gold — what I like to call "honest money" — the Dow Industrials had lost more than 87 percent of the entire equity bull market from 1980 to 1999.
(2nd Chart)

In my Real Wealth Report issue of July 2008, I called for the bottom in the ratio to come in around the 5 to 6 level.

It bottomed slightly above that level, then retested it with a slightly lower low in September 2011.

Since then, stocks have vastly outperformed gold.

As a result, the ratio of the Dow Industrials to gold has widened back out, and has broken out of a resistance level as you can see on the chart.

Now trading at about the 10-to-1 level, the Dow/Gold ratio is set to widen much further.

So what does this all mean? And what does it hold for the future for the Dow? For gold?

I'll answer those questions now. But I urge you to put your thinking cap on, because the analysis of the Dow/Gold ratio is not easy to grasp, yet it's critically important to understanding the future.

FIRST, the collapse in the Dow to Gold ratio was not caused simply by a crash in equity prices. It was also due to a crash in the value of the dollar, as reflected in the soaring value of gold from the year 2000 on.

SECOND, the breakout in the ratio means that the Dow is now beginning to inflation-adjust, to reflect the lower value of the dollar (as reflected in the higher price of gold).

This inflation-adjusting of equities is perfectly normal and one of the main reasons I am very bullish equities over the next several years.

All asset classes eventually recalibrate their price levels to the new reality of the purchasing power of the underlying currency, which in this case, is the dollar, which in turn, is nowhere near what it was worth back in the year 2000.

A simple exercise here will show you how the Dow will adjust. For the Dow/Gold ratio to climb back to the 18 to 20 resistance level you see on my chart, the Dow would have to explode higher to the 28,000 level, assuming gold's current price of roughly $1,400.

Naturally, the price of gold is not going to remain at $1,400. It will probably fall back to the $1,030 level, which is my target for gold's bottom. Let's say it does that. Then a 20-to-1 ratio for Dow/Gold, with gold at $1,030, would still imply a Dow eventually hitting the 20,600 level.

And what would happen if gold were to move to $2,000 ... $3,000 ... or higher? Then to reach a 20-to-1 ratio, the Dow would have to explode even higher.

At $2,000 gold, a 20:1 ratio would see the Dow eventually hit 40,000.

Take the other extreme: Gold falls to say, $600. A 20:1 ratio puts the Dow at 12,000.

Do this exercise for any price level of gold you wish, and you will see that the downside risk in the Dow is minimal and the upside potential is enormous.

That's not to say there won't be pullbacks in the Dow. There will be. This kind of analysis simply shows you that ...

THIRD, the monetary system has changed dramatically. More specifically, the dollar has lost another huge chunk of purchasing power ― value that it will most likely never get back, even if the dollar stages a rally in the Forex markets, as it has been doing and will do some more.

Naturally, the ratio between the Dow and gold will vary considerably over the next few years.

But given the breakout from the bottom of the ratio ... and the normal tendency from all markets, no matter what they are, to retrace good portions of what they have lost ...

I believe it's a very safe assumption to make that the Dow/Gold ratio will continue to climb. And that means much higher prices to come for the Dow, and U.S. equity markets in general.

You can do this sort of exercise with any asset class you want. You can look at real estate values in terms of honest money, gold ... even with collectibles such as art.

And each time you do that comparison, with the price of gold, you will find that the value of the dollar has changed dramatically over the last 12 years, so much so that almost all asset prices will eventually be forced to inflate much higher.

As for gold and silver right now, the bounce you've seen is nothing more than a dead cat bounce. The precious metals, and commodities in general, have NOT bottomed.

So please don't buy yet, and don't fall prey to the pitches from all the snake-oil salesmen out there who are trying so desperately to sell you metal and mining shares now so they can earn an extra commission.

I repeat my warnings:

Gold will not bottom until it hits major long-term support at $1,030.

Silver will not bottom until it tests major long-term support at the $17 level.

If you've acted on any of my suggestions to purchase inverse ETFs such as the ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL) and the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3x Shares (DUST) ... or even the ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) for a play on silver's downside ...

Continue to hold those positions!

Best wishes,
Larry

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about CBOE ''mid-term'' Volatility Indicator on S&P500.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous study.

In this post there are some benchmarks of mid-term Volatility Indicators (3mo.) of S&P500, both as Index (attached III & IV charts; VXV & VIF) and of ETF (see linked comparative charts I & II).
There is a giant mid-term bearish-structure, in preliminar progress, with a ''collapsed'' target (see attached charts).
These %-targets will be stopped only with curves well above the binary-levels of lows 2010/2011/2012(Q/1).
There is an about perfect overlapping between the binary-levels of previous lows & giants pricesXvolume levels (see weekly & yearly charts).
The main trends of these benchmarks (VXV & VIF) are in hard bearish-array (see the new historical low in 2013).

See also these ETF charts
TVIZ: 1y -- weekly ema-format -- yearly -- January Rule -- December Rule.
VIIZ: 1y -- weekly ema-format -- yearly -- January Rule -- December Rule.
VIXM: 1y -- weekly ema-format -- yearly -- January Rule -- December Rule.
VXZ: 1y -- weekly ema-format -- yearly -- January Rule -- December Rule.
ZIV: 1y -- weekly ema-format -- yearly -- January Rule -- December Rule.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
Source: MarketWatch.
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about CBOE SKEW & Vol.VIX Indicators.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖http://www.cboe.com/micro/skew/SKEW.jpg Previous studies on SKEW: apr.2012 -- may.2010.
❖http://www.cboe.com/micro/vvix/VVIX.jpg Previous studies on Vol.VIX: may.2010.

In this post there are two CBOE indicators option-based, SKEW & Vol.VIX at 1mo., in order to evaluates the trends of underlyings stocks-benchmarks.
SKEW indicator is a derived-index from S&P500 price tail risk, based from the prices out-of-the-money S&P500 options.
Vol.VIX Index is an indicator of the expected volatility of the 30-day forward price of the VIX., calculated from a portfolio of VIX options (VVIX portfolio) using the same algorithm used to calculate the VIX. Approximate fair values of VIX futures prices and their standard deviations are derived from the VVIX term structure.
These indicators have an about contrarian array vs. main trend of the possible underlying stocks-benchmarks.
SKEW & Vol.VIX shows a continuation-bear and a global bearish-array (see also historical charts of previous studies).
The recent ''in-progress'' cups, are very interestings, also because of the little & short-term divergences vs. underlyng S&P/500.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
CBOE SKEW & Vol.VIX INDICATORS (1y frame).
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
CBOE SKEW & Vol.VIX INDICATORS (linear & weekly ema-format).

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about CBOE single-stocks volatility indicators.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous studies: apr.2012 -- apr.2012.

In this post there are some CBOE single-stocks indicators (1mo.).
The attached charts are the spread between the average single-stocks volatility curve vs. VIX curve (S&P500 1mo. volatility indicator)
The spread indicators (in ratio or difference format) shows a conituation-bear of curve.
According to this indicator, there are not signs of stress inside the U.S. stocks-market, with curve in bottom-position !!!

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
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ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
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CBOE single stocks Volatility Indicator.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-11,2013-05-11
CBOE single stocks Volatility Indicator compared vs. VIX.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-11,2013-05-11
CBOE VIX vs. single stocks average Volatility Indicator.

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about CBOE Global Volatility Indicators for Equity & InterMarket.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous studies on Global U.S. Volatility Indicator: aug.2011 -- jan.2012 -- jan.2012.
❖ Previous studies on Global U.S. Volatility Indicator: july.2010 -- aug.2010 -- july.2011 -- jan.2012.

In this post there are some personal volatility indicartors, based on CBOE curves of volatility and about contrarian to main trend of underlyings, with important anticipatory behaviours (see key levels of 2008-2009 vs. underlyings).
-) In the first chart there is the simple arithmetic mean of the CBOE indicator of S&P500, Nd/100, R-2k, Dow Jones 30, in order to obtain a global evaluator indicator for U.S. stocks-market volatility.
This indicator shows a mostre continuation-bear of curve, with very low stress inside stocks-market.
This indicator is at the bottom-zone, according to 4 stocks-benchmarks !!!
The gray-cup is in bearish-status, with a theoretical ''collapsed-target''.
The bearish pressure on this curve is hard & strong until to the binary lows of 2010/2011; the bearish pressure is stopped with curve above the top of 2006; the bearish pressure will be in reversal attempt with curve above the key values of first half of 2008 !!!
-) In the chart II there is the d-spread between ''' the simple arithmetic average of the two most important CBOE volatility ind. (VIX & VXN) with a correction factor based on the frame. 1mo. vs. 3mo. ''' vs. ''' VIX or CBOE volatility of S&P/500 1mo. '''
This indicator shows an important divergence from 2011 low vs. underlyings !!!
There is also a preliminar bearish-sign on the ascending-line from the 2011-lows.
A continuation-bear of curve below this ascending-line, can cause a new SellOff of this important indicator toward the bottom-zone !!!
Also for this indicator, there will be an hard bullish pressure only with value above the key-levels of first half of 2008.
-) In the chart III there are the same components (but in r-spread) of the chart II, but divided in positive curve and negative curve.
In the double r-spread version of previous indicator, we can see the stop of main trend (positive for underlyings) at the key-levels of 2012 !!!
From this level there is an important reversal attempt of two curves, with values near to 1-line.
Actual array of two curves, shows a new & local positive phase of underlyings, but in continuation-divergence (loss of momentum).
Only with values beyond the dotted-lines there will be the break of this divergence.
-) In the chart IV there is the r-spread between 1mo vs. 3mo. of CBOE volatility indicators of S&P500.
Also this indicator shows a collapse of volatility, but with bottom-zone in 2012, according to previous indicartor III.
The ascending values of 2012/2013 is a dangerous sign, in particular if the values will be in continuation-bull above the lows of 2010/2011.
There is also a gray-cup in-progress with important effects on prices, but only if there will be the breaks of bottom or neck levels of cup.
The ema-format version shows a new attempt of sell-signal on Q/10 or Quadruple 10mo. average (yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma).
-) In the chart V there are some curve of a Global Intermarket Volatility Indicator, a personal evaluator of the financial market volatility. This curve is CBOE-based, and obtained from VIX-method on 1 mo., with a wide range of strike prices. The various financial market segments are Au (as option volatility of ETF GLD), €/US$ (as option volatility of ETF ERO), WTI-Oil (as option volatility of ETF USO options), S&P500 (1mo. & 3 mo.), Nd/100.
The simple average curve and the curve with one correction factor, shows the same complete bearish-array of the chart I, with the financial stress at the bottom zone from 2008 !!!
The curve with two correction factors shows a short-term interesting divergence (ascending tops 2012-2013), but with prices in full descending-test of binary lows of 2010/2011 !!!

NOTES
The Global Equity Volatility Evaluators shows a mostre main bear trend, with financial stress at bottom-zone of curves in 2012-2013.
There are only local divergences for some indicators as II, III, IV, but with some signs of local continuation-bear of curves.
The Global InterMarket Volatility Evaluators shows the same mostre main bear trend without divergence signs in V/A and V/B charts (see the 2012/2013 divergence on tops of V/C).

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.