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Silent Service Method

  • #15,121
  • Apr 12, 2013 12:50pm Apr 12, 2013 12:50pm
Quoting o990l6mh
As it happens, the Donchian 20/10 system suggests a long position be initiated around 1.05 on the Daily charts...
I'm loathe to sell the Aussie and buy toilet paper but my chart looks bearish

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  • #15,122
  • Apr 14, 2013 2:35am Apr 14, 2013 2:35am
Quoting o990l6mh
As it happens, the Donchian 20/10 system suggests a long position be initiated around 1.05 on the Daily charts...
Have you backtested that with any success? I find 55/20 much more profitable.
  • #15,123
  • Apr 14, 2013 2:46am Apr 14, 2013 2:46am
Quoting stewrigh
I'm loathe to sell the Aussie and buy toilet paper but my chart looks bearish {image}
I don't like your trendlines much but I see your point. In actual fact it's just finding support at 1.05 which could be a nice long anticipating the final push to 1.06. I'll see if I can get an entry on Sunday night. It's good risk reward.

I'm liking UsdJpy short from the monthly 50% fib. Also it's touching the monthly 100 sma. Interestingly 101 is the better resistance to watch. Maybe this is just a reaction to the fib level and it's going to push higher again?

I sold on the close below the 100 sma on the hourly chart.
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  • #15,124
  • Apr 14, 2013 6:21am Apr 14, 2013 6:21am
Quoting Hugh Briss
I don't like your trendlines much but I see your point. In actual fact it's just finding support at 1.05 which could be a nice long anticipating the final push to 1.06. I'll see if I can get an entry on Sunday night. It's good risk reward. I'm liking UsdJpy short from the monthly 50% fib. Also it's touching the monthly 100 sma. Interestingly 101 is the better resistance to watch. Maybe this is just a reaction to the fib level and it's going to push higher again? I sold on the close below the 100 sma on the hourly chart. {image} {image}
Not really trend lines more of a pennant formation which could be bullish - but what I'm seeing is RSI divergence and the last 2 pin bars maybe still in play.

Anyway I'm on the sidelines atm until I get some confirmation.
  • #15,125
  • Edited 10:38am Apr 14, 2013 8:31am | Edited 10:38am
Quoting Hugh Briss
Have you backtested that with any success? I find 55/20 much more profitable.
I have indeed and my results are pretty clear about 20/10 beating 55/20 significantly the last five years.

edit: I forgot I should point out that I use the modifications Courtney Smith suggests for the 55/20 but I apply them to 20/10 instead, that is: last bar intial stop, Bishop exit, Rejection Rule.
  • #15,126
  • Apr 14, 2013 11:07am Apr 14, 2013 11:07am
Quoting stewrigh
Not really trend lines more of a pennant formation which could be bullish - but what I'm seeing is RSI divergence and the last 2 pin bars maybe still in play. Anyway I'm on the sidelines atm until I get some confirmation.
Sounds like a plan.
  • #15,127
  • Apr 14, 2013 11:08am Apr 14, 2013 11:08am
Quoting o990l6mh
I have indeed and my results are pretty clear about 20/10 beating 55/20 significantly the last five years. edit: I forgot I should point out that I use the modifications Courtney Smith suggests for the 55/20 but I apply them to 20/10 instead, that is: last bar intial stop, Bishop exit, Rejection Rule.
That's interesting, I will knock up an ea and test it. I have found 55/20 to be profitable on daily charts. What pairs and timeframes have you tested and what sort of percentage return per year are you getting?

Also what are you using for the entry? I use a close the other side of the channel rather than a pending order. Same for the exit, the price must close above/below the exit channel.
  • #15,128
  • Apr 14, 2013 12:24pm Apr 14, 2013 12:24pm
Another one on my watchlist

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  • #15,129
  • Apr 14, 2013 2:27pm Apr 14, 2013 2:27pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
That's interesting, I will knock up an ea and test it. I have found 55/20 to be profitable on daily charts. What pairs and timeframes have you tested and what sort of percentage return per year are you getting? Also what are you using for the entry? I use a close the other side of the channel rather than a pending order. Same for the exit, the price must close above/below the exit channel.
I also use daily charts, though I use pending orders to enter once the channel is broken, not entry/exit on the close of bars. I've tested eurusd and gbpusd and they're profitable almost every year, how much varies but only one losing year per pair so far. I've tested from 2005 till present.
  • #15,130
  • Apr 14, 2013 3:30pm Apr 14, 2013 3:30pm
Quoting o990l6mh
I also use daily charts, though I use pending orders to enter once the channel is broken, not entry/exit on the close of bars. I've tested eurusd and gbpusd and they're profitable almost every year, how much varies but only one losing year per pair so far. I've tested from 2005 till present.
That's probably not enough data though is it? I've tested back to around 1990 on most pairs and with lots of different brokers feeds. Although I suppose you are taking quite a few trades with a 20 channel?
  • #15,131
  • Apr 14, 2013 3:48pm Apr 14, 2013 3:48pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
That's probably not enough data though is it? I've tested back to around 1990 on most pairs and with lots of different brokers feeds. Although I suppose you are taking quite a few trades with a 20 channel?
It does turn into quite some trades, many more than the 55/20 system gives. Of course starting from 2000 would have been better (going before that isn't really relevant for euro), but I made a judgement call based on these last five years being the most relevant to current market dynamics and the limited time I have.
  • #15,132
  • Apr 14, 2013 4:12pm Apr 14, 2013 4:12pm
Quoting o990l6mh
It does turn into quite some trades, many more than the 55/20 system gives. Of course starting from 2000 would have been better (going before that isn't really relevant for euro), but I made a judgement call based on these last five years being the most relevant to current market dynamics and the limited time I have.
I understand. It is a good enough system anyway. I ran it with an ea for a few months and made 20%. Nice, leave it on for the close and then shut it down once it's done it's thing.
  • #15,133
  • Jun 18, 2013 9:32pm Jun 18, 2013 9:32pm
Quoting InfinitySL
I have had an eye on this one for a little while. You guys probably know it from the Broker Review section, but they are publicly traded now. Sorry for the lack of bars, but there just aren't as many because this IPO'd last year maybe... Weekly for FXCM {image} Fundamentals/Daily Chart {image} I like trades where the chart & fundamentals seem to align. For those who subscribe to Barron's -- they had a piece on these guys a couple weeks ago.
This one is up about 50% since my post late last year although truth be told i took most of my profits about $14/share. Nice looking brekout here too...


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  • #15,134
  • Jun 18, 2013 10:16pm Jun 18, 2013 10:16pm
Quoting InfinitySL
I'm very biased here (since I'm long already), but I do like the look of this pinbar & the higher volume this week versus the past few weeks... MIDD: {image}
And here's an update on MIDD from late last year. Yup, sold this one too soon also (around $150)
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  • #15,135
  • Jun 19, 2013 12:58am Jun 19, 2013 12:58am
Awesome trading as usual and good to see the thread alive. I use moving averages to determine when to close. I like a 100 sma but you can use different periods for different timeframes. That prevents me from closing out a move too soon and keeps my opinions and emotions away from the decision. I also find that it usually doesn't give too much back in relation to how much extra I make by holding on. Just a thought.
  • #15,136
  • Jul 19, 2013 10:13pm Jul 19, 2013 10:13pm
This thread has come a long way... I remember my early days here, ah the memories, the tear and the joys of trading lol

Well done Chris!

All the best

VB
  • #15,137
  • Oct 3, 2013 8:17am Oct 3, 2013 8:17am
So an update.....

It turns out that marriage isn't for me. (THANK GOD.) I am actually thinking about throwing a divorce party with three bands and a beer truck.

It also turns out that I am a technical analyst, and have been making a living doing so for some time. Because of this, I am still watching the markets...probably too much, and because of this I have been watching this load of shit they call a market for the last few months with the realization that the markets are very difficult to trade for longer periods of time currently. However, there are pairs out there that can be traded longer-term. They are typically the exotic or cross pairs, which a lot of people will say have less liquidity. Bullshit. Your trades aren't moving these markets. Even something like MXN/JPY can handle the trade. The spread is horrible, but that's another problem.....


With Non-Farm coming tomorrow, I am flat in this market. However, I will be looking towards EUR/USD and USD/JPY in the afternoon on Friday to see if there is any hope of a trade. Otherwise, I will be in the exotics and cross pairs still. Oh, and silver looks like it is trying to build a bit of a base at $21 for those of you interested.....

Chris
  • #15,138
  • Oct 3, 2013 10:53am Oct 3, 2013 10:53am
Sorry to hear that Chris. Hopefully your kids will do ok thru that process.

As for Non-farm payrolls... we won't be getting them. B/c the Bureau of Labor Statistics is "non-essential" they won't be releasing the data tomorrow... at least that's what I hear at this point. Unless somehow magically the government re-opens

GL Trading!
  • #15,139
  • Oct 3, 2013 4:06pm Oct 3, 2013 4:06pm
I went through a divorce a couple of years ago Chris, so I know it's hard. But trust me, there's a better life at the end of the tunnel.

I'll be watching the BoJ rate decision a little less than 6 hours from now and then we'll see if there will be NFP numbers or not...

Welcome back by the way!
  • #15,140
  • Oct 3, 2013 6:59pm Oct 3, 2013 6:59pm
Quoting o990l6mh
I went through a divorce a couple of years ago Chris, so I know it's hard. But trust me, there's a better life at the end of the tunnel. I'll be watching the BoJ rate decision a little less than 6 hours from now and then we'll see if there will be NFP numbers or not... Welcome back by the way!

Thanks man.....and seriously.....the divorce isn't all bad. To be honest, I am having a blast.......

And yes, I think the BoJ could do a preemptive strike by trying to talk the Yen down. Interesting to see what happens....if anything!


Chris
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