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Trading EURUSD only

  • #42,841
  • Apr 12, 2013 9:08am Apr 12, 2013 9:08am
US dollar skidding lower

Session low in USD/JPY after soft February US business inventories (+0.1% vs +0.4% exp). That means econmists will be revising Q1 GDP forecasts lower. No follow through on the break so far.
EUR/USD is at the highest since early in European trading.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,842
  • Apr 12, 2013 9:09am Apr 12, 2013 9:09am
EUR/USD trims losses, still below 1.3100

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - After finding support at the 1.3035 area, the euro managed to trim intraday losses against the greenback after data showed US retail sales unexpectedly declined in March and amid news the Eurogroup gave green light to a €10 billion loan to Cyprus.

However, the recovery of EUR/USD has been so far capped by the 20-hour SMA at the 1.3090 area. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.3080, still down 0.1% on the day.

"As long as buying interest around mentioned 1.3040 remains intact, current dips are seen as short term buying opportunities", says Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com. Bednarik sees next supports at 1.3040, 1.3000 and 1.2970, while she places resistances at 1.3115, 1.3150 and 1.3185.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,843
  • Apr 12, 2013 9:18am Apr 12, 2013 9:18am
Still Long and strong from 60 will see what Ms Market does.

May bail and re enter if she gets weak in the knees here.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,844
  • Apr 12, 2013 9:19am Apr 12, 2013 9:19am
Today Friday so should EURUSD down
  • #42,845
  • Apr 12, 2013 9:25am Apr 12, 2013 9:25am
Quoting adriano2013
Today Friday so should EURUSD down
Brother I dont think a day on a calendar is a good predictor of PA.

Ms Market is an independent woman you know..
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,846
  • Apr 12, 2013 9:25am Apr 12, 2013 9:25am
TA from TC


EUR/USD intraday: under pressure. Pivot: 1.31

Our preference: Short positions below 1.31 with targets @ 1.303 & 1.2995 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.31 look for further upside with 1.3125 & 1.314 as targets.

Comment: the pair is posting a rebound but stands below its resistance.

Key levels
1.314
1.3125
1.31
1.30838 last
1.303
1.2995
1.295


Ticker : EUR
http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...1341216519.GIF
  • #42,847
  • Apr 12, 2013 9:27am Apr 12, 2013 9:27am
Pipnography for Pip Pervs


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1365776823
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,848
  • Apr 12, 2013 9:30am Apr 12, 2013 9:30am
I'm staying flat today. No time to dig in the charts and confirm my doubts so i decided to stay out and deal other things. Now that I look at the charts my greed says : see you knew it (posted bounces from Monthly to weekly resistance back and forth Tue or Wed). However I'm still flat and I'm trying to open an account with OANDA and close my current account with a Bulgarian company.


PS: That's kinda victory over greed isn't it? On other hand greed is what moves most of the traders ... and most of the world...hm.
Mind you, my first name is Bad. ..."Nunc Id Vides, Nunc Ne Vides"...
  • #42,849
  • Apr 12, 2013 9:35am Apr 12, 2013 9:35am
Quoting sypherBG
I'm staying flat today. No time to dig in the charts and confirm my doubts so i decided to stay out and deal other things. Now that I look at the charts my greed says : see you knew it (posted bounces from Monthly to weekly resistance back and forth Tue or Wed). However I'm still flat and I'm trying to open an account with OANDA and close my current account with a Bulgarian company. PS: That's kinda victory over greed isn't it? On other hand greed is what moves most of the traders ... and most of the world...hm.
My brother just recognizing the symptoms of greed is a victory!

Build on what you learned and vow never to repeat it.

As I have said when I loved the markets more than greed I was on my way. I havent looked back or had a MC in over 18 months all with out ever using a SL.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,850
  • Apr 12, 2013 9:39am Apr 12, 2013 9:39am
EUR/USD Stalls Climb Around 38% Retracement Level

EUR/USD (daily chart) as of April 12, 2013 has stalled its climb of the past week around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the two-month bearish trend from early February to early April. This bullish correction reached a high yesterday around the 1.3138 level before stalling its climb. Not only is this price resistance area around the key 38.2% Fibonacci level, it is also in the region of the 50-day moving average.
Having bumped up against this tentative resistance, EUR/USD may be exhausting its rally. A breakdown below the key 1.3000 level would provide some confirmation of this exhaustion, and an indication that price could be looking towards a resumption of the bearish bias that has been in place since the beginning of February. In this event, a key downside objective remains around the 1.2650 level. A breakout above yesterday’s high could extend the current bullish correction towards 1.3300 resistance.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,851
  • Apr 12, 2013 10:35am Apr 12, 2013 10:35am
Out of long @ 60 for +30

Me and Ms Market held hands on this one long enough

Reason:

PA went under 10M 5SMA and...

RSI3 went under 50 and...

1M candle had a couple reds.

Waiting for the next opportunity and if not have an existing long @1.3131
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,852
  • Apr 12, 2013 10:43am Apr 12, 2013 10:43am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Out of long @ 60 for +30 Me and Ms Market held hands on this one long enough Reason: PA went under 10M 5SMA and... RSI3 went under 50 and... 1M candle had a couple reds. Waiting for the next opportunity and if not have an existing long @1.3131
Am I wrong @ thinking that when RSI goes close to 30 the market gets oversold and a move up is expected? Just want to clarify this cuz if I'm wrong i might ruin some trades since i watch RSI.

BTW PM ETJD.
Mind you, my first name is Bad. ..."Nunc Id Vides, Nunc Ne Vides"...
  • #42,853
  • Apr 12, 2013 10:50am Apr 12, 2013 10:50am
Quoting sypherBG
Am I wrong @ thinking that when RSI goes close to 30 the market gets oversold and a move up is expected? Just want to clarify this cuz if I'm wrong i might ruin some trades since i watch RSI. BTW PM ETJD.
Hmmmm

Well i guess you would be right in a conventional RSI sense.

Because mine is set for RSI3 / 90 / 10 it is very volatile so I use RSI zones. +50 its bullish -50 its bearish. Dont forget I use the 10M chart and hyper scalp. 10 is oversold and 90 is overbought but these arent as important as the +-50 line in the sand.

At +50 its bullish and -50 its bearish is used in conjunction with the PA in relation to the 5 & 15 SMA to help me make a decision... after a check of the 30M HSR & Fibs. Finally the 1M candle trips the trigger if all is a go.

Thanks for letting me know about the PM. I generally check my profile at the end of the day. I will check it now.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,854
  • Apr 12, 2013 10:51am Apr 12, 2013 10:51am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Out of long @ 60 for +30 Me and Ms Market held hands on this one long enough Reason: PA went under 10M 5SMA and... RSI3 went under 50 and... 1M candle had a couple reds. Waiting for the next opportunity and if not have an existing long @1.3131
I told you this week is yours bro..
  • #42,855
  • Apr 12, 2013 11:36am Apr 12, 2013 11:36am
Some EUR/USD technical analysis

There is no easy way to explain the euro rally over the past two weeks. Certainly some sense of finality about Cyprus was at work but Japanese money flowing into European bonds (or people frontrunning that trade) have been the drivers.
Looking at the daily chart, the 100-day moving average has capped gains so far along with the 38.2% retracement of the Feb-March decline.
http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/...13-330x231.png
There isn’t a strong bias on the chart but I lean toward the upside, if only because there hasn’t been a strong rejection at those technical levels.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,856
  • Apr 12, 2013 11:41am Apr 12, 2013 11:41am
Quoting mangaradja
I told you this week is yours bro..
Indeed you did. You are the MAN

Sometimes I get lucky. There are times the bear gets you and other times you get the bear...

The key is to have a solid trading plan. Mine isnt based on drawing arrows on the E chart to heaven or hell. But I respect those who do and can make money at it.

Mine is based on current real time PA using the 10M 5&15 SMA, RSI3, 30M HSR & Fibs, and PA on the 1M for precise entry. This is the execution side. MM tells me how much.

Following the rules often leads to pips if you bring out that big tool called Patience. Since I dont use SL this is key because my MM is in place to tide me over till Ms Market sees it my way.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,857
  • Apr 12, 2013 11:43am Apr 12, 2013 11:43am
I'm long @ 1.3093. Expact at least 30pips profit till the end of the week
  • #42,858
  • Apr 12, 2013 11:54am Apr 12, 2013 11:54am
To all my FX brothers who requested the MM Pyramid PDF, check your email you gave me in the PM. I just sent a batch of them out. Its an overview of how my MM software works but I think you will get the idea.

Again I have to say I am humbled by your requests and kind words.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,859
  • Apr 12, 2013 12:02pm Apr 12, 2013 12:02pm
Commodities were also pressured by the dollar, which gained strength against the euro and the British pound.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/12/inve...tocks-markets/
  • #42,860
  • Apr 12, 2013 12:12pm Apr 12, 2013 12:12pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Indeed you did. You are the MAN Sometimes I get lucky. There are times the bear gets you and other times you get the bear... The key is to have a solid trading plan. Mine isnt based on drawing arrows on the E chart to heaven or hell. But I respect those who do and can make money at it. Mine is based on current real time PA using the 10M 5&15 SMA, RSI3, 30M HSR & Fibs, and PA on the 1M for precise entry. This is the execution side. MM tells me how much. Following the rules often leads to pips if you bring out that big tool called Patience....
sounds nice system you build, I will try it next week and great thanks for sharing "your holy grail" to us in this forum
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