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Higher low, lower high system

  • #6,281
  • Apr 10, 2013 11:51pm Apr 10, 2013 11:51pm
Recap 10 Apr

All 3 pairs moved up early in line with the bias and fell in line with potential resistance levels (and expectations in EJ's case).
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  • #6,282
  • Apr 11, 2013 12:10am Apr 11, 2013 12:10am
EUR GU EJ11 Apr

EUR - D closed a shooting star, above the 8lwma, a relatively small range day so whilst this can move lower not a major reaction. 4hr lower with the divergence but is still on a higher high higher low. 1hr chart had a move down on the lower high after divergence. No bias can go either way today 4hr/1hr flows conflicting. I suspect up though but either way good candles will lead the way.

GU - D closed at the upper end of range for the past few days. 4hr still making higher lows. Weaker bounces from a key level often sees that level fail. Bias up but obviously this key level can hold.

EJ - Bias up.
  • #6,283
  • Apr 11, 2013 2:09am Apr 11, 2013 2:09am
e/j has formed a lower high with a nice pin bar in 1h av sold target at 129.770
thankyou gregwilson
  • #6,284
  • Apr 11, 2013 3:51am Apr 11, 2013 3:51am
Quoting njokie
e/j has formed a lower high with a nice pin bar in 1h av sold target at 129.770
Mrs V sold 130.25 after the 1hr pin and the 15 min 2b. Really does not look like it wants to go lower and the following 1hr closed a doji which is not what we'd like to see. Looks for now that the ej up bias will play out.
  • #6,285
  • Apr 11, 2013 3:57am Apr 11, 2013 3:57am
does not look nice at all but lets see how things paly out
am reading this http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/11/question.html its really helpful
thankyou gregwilson
  • #6,286
  • Apr 11, 2013 4:05am Apr 11, 2013 4:05am
Quoting njokie
does not look nice at all but lets see how things paly out am reading this http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/11/question.html its really helpful
Cheers thats one of my better posts.
  • #6,287
  • Apr 11, 2013 4:07am Apr 11, 2013 4:07am
two upper wicks in 1h its really refusing to go higher either
thankyou gregwilson
  • #6,288
  • Apr 11, 2013 4:12am Apr 11, 2013 4:12am
Quoting njokie
does not look nice at all but lets see how things paly out am reading this http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/11/question.html its really helpful
15 min just making lower highs, if that stays like it is might just help.

I have been having some long emails with a person that highly favours pin bars (hammers/shooting stars) I favour the engulfing close/3 bar reversal. Of course some hammers are better than others and can be engulfing. This mornings ej 1hr shooting star wasn't. Its difficult to argue the rejection of 130.50 area but its not my fave candle set up.

At least EUR is now trying to go down, hopefully uj will join the party.
  • #6,289
  • Apr 11, 2013 4:15am Apr 11, 2013 4:15am
Quoting njokie
two upper wicks in 1h its really refusing to go higher either
OK charts up at the office but I really have to get back to work, lots of sub contractors want their bi-monthly payments. Hope your trade goes really, really well njokie.

Cheers outta here.
  • #6,290
  • Apr 11, 2013 4:18am Apr 11, 2013 4:18am
Quoting Vantage
Of course some hammers are better than others and can be engulfing. This mornings ej 1hr shooting star wasn't. Its difficult to argue the rejection of 130.50 area but its not my fave candle set up. At least EUR is now trying to go down, hopefully uj will join the party.
Sorry forgot to add, the ej 1hr shooting star could not come close to, never mind break below the 8lwma, so counter trend even from a SR level not the best set up candle. Just needed to clarify.
  • #6,291
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:08am Apr 11, 2013 5:08am
sl hit bias was truly up
thankyou gregwilson
  • #6,292
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:26am Apr 11, 2013 5:26am
Quoting njokie
sl hit bias was truly up
Yep already had the post mortum discussion on the trade, no engulfing close, no 8lwma cross, no rsi cross, against the days bias. There was an obvious resistance level and reason to sell, so thats one of those trades that just does not work.

As I said fairly early on this morning, not my fave set up. Even said to Mrs V look to left on ej 1hr chart the other shooting stars that failed - no 8lwma cross, no engulfing close/3 bar reversal.

Next trade please.

PS still don't think she is right mentally.
  • #6,293
  • Apr 11, 2013 6:20am Apr 11, 2013 6:20am
yep next trade pls


i have a small question when you say no engulfing close, no 8lwma cross, no rsi cross, against the days bias which timeframe r u referring to? 15min? am also trying to familiarise myself with the entry rules as per the link http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/11/question.html its has a vey clear explantion but i dnt see when 8lwma is applied
thankyou gregwilson
  • #6,294
  • Apr 11, 2013 7:41am Apr 11, 2013 7:41am
Quoting njokie
yep next trade pls i have a small question when you say no engulfing close, no 8lwma cross, no rsi cross, against the days bias which timeframe r u referring to? 15min? am also trying to familiarise myself with the entry rules as per the link http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2012/11/question.html its has a vey clear explantion but i dnt see when 8lwma is applied
If you see the blog or the post above I had an up bias for EJ today. If we want to go against this then our counter trend rules come into play. Mainly for CT we want a proven support resistance level/W pivot, here 1.3040 certainly seems to provide resistance. Divergence, we had on 4hr and 1hr. Price proving for hours it does not want to continue in trend. There was only 1 x 1hr shooting star but the pa from yesterday certainly seemed to have a resistance level.

I meant no negative close/3 bar reversal on 1hr, same TF we stayed above the 8lwma and no rsi cross lower (or even remotely close to a cross lower).

That link you gave refers mainly to the D TF set ups to determine the bias for the day. The 8lwma is not an absolutely hard rule as there are some very good candles that don't quite cross this ma and set up good trades. However if you look at 1st post are we above/below the 1hr 8lwma is in bold.

Mrs V was swayed I think by the resistance level more than anything else. Notes have been made as usual on losing trades and if there are too many such failed trades we'll make a tweak in implementation as the method certainly does not need a tweak. Regular readers and certainly some people I have swopped messages with will certainly know that a candle that cannot cross its TF's 8lwma must be treated with a little suspicion.
  • #6,295
  • Apr 11, 2013 8:06am Apr 11, 2013 8:06am
Quoting Vantage
Cheers thats one of my better posts.
Hi Mr Vantage! I have a question. In this post, in the final part you said: "A through analysis of your losing trades can work wonders. Could be as easy as you are trying too many CT trades (London close has a proven CT strategy but thats a different issue i.e. its proven)." Can you give more informations about London close strategy?
You are one of the best traders who I know and reading yours posts helps me a lot!
Thank you for all!!!
  • #6,296
  • Apr 11, 2013 8:15am Apr 11, 2013 8:15am
Quoting Flaviu1981
Hi Mr Vantage! I have a question. In this post, in the final part you said: "A through analysis of your losing trades can work wonders. Could be as easy as you are trying too many CT trades (London close has a proven CT strategy but thats a different issue i.e. its proven)." Can you give more informations about London close strategy? You are one of the best traders who I know and reading yours posts helps me a lot! Thank you for all!!!
Its a paid for product so I would not give away all their secrets. What I can suggest you do is around London time 4-5pm look for reversals when 5 day adr reached and (not their system but what I feel comfortable with saying) look for 1 min higher lows at identified key levels (D or W pivots, SR levels etc). So 5 day adr reached, 1 min hl/lh and a key level.
  • #6,297
  • Apr 11, 2013 8:19am Apr 11, 2013 8:19am
Quoting Vantage
Its a paid for product so I would not give away all their secrets. What I can suggest you do is around London time 4-5pm look for reversals when 5 day adr reached and (not their system but what I feel comfortable with saying) look for 1 min higher lows at identified key levels (D or W pivots, SR levels etc). So 5 day adr reached, 1 min hl/lh and a key level.
THANK YOU!
  • #6,298
  • Apr 11, 2013 11:26pm Apr 11, 2013 11:26pm
Recap 11 Apr

EUR - D closed a shooting star, above the 8lwma, a relatively small range day so whilst this can move lower not a major reaction. 4hr lower with the divergence but is still on a higher high higher low. 1hr chart had a move down on the lower high after divergence. No bias can go either way today 4hr/1hr flows conflicting. I suspect up though but either way good candles will lead the way.
Result: Clean candles no upper wicks in early move before London open. Some upper wicks after London open, very smooth higher low wave on 15 min.

GU - D closed at the upper end of range for the past few days. 4hr still making higher lows. Weaker bounces from a key level often sees that level fail. Bias up but obviously this key level can hold.
Result: Bias up played out, if you missed this early move then there wasn't another entry on 15 min.

EJ - Bias up.
Result: Bias up did play out in a choppy manner.
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  • #6,299
  • Apr 11, 2013 11:54pm Apr 11, 2013 11:54pm
EUR GU EJ 12 Apr

EUR - D closed positive with an upper wick, above 8lwma. Still held by the Mar high resistance level. 4hr is still showing negative divergence whilst managing to stay on higher high higher low flow, seems to struggle above W R1. A 4hr negative close would flip that over giving a lower high and most likely crosses of 8lwma and RSI. Yesterday 1hr had a double top with divergence, then still made a higher low. No bias can go either way.

GU - D closed positive but we are in the area of the July '12 lows. 4hr higher high higher low flow but showing negative divergence. We'll see how this 4hr closes, potential double top forming.

EJ - D closed a doji. 4hr still making higher highs at W M4, negative divergence, moves higher seem to be running out of steam. RSI has crossed lower and we are moving below the 8lwma. Bias up until 4hr can give a sell signal.
  • #6,300
  • Apr 12, 2013 2:50am Apr 12, 2013 2:50am
a bullish pin in 4h at 1.53630 could be a nice buy signal in g/u
thankyou gregwilson
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