What is the best level to Take Profit? | Forex Factory

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What is the best level to Take Profit?

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 11, 2013 6:11pm Apr 11, 2013 6:11pm
This example, a Nzd/Jpy long. What is the best level to take profit?

Is there a way to tell?

http://i49.tinypic.com/jh8ubs.jpg
  • #2
  • Apr 11, 2013 6:54pm Apr 11, 2013 6:54pm
Most of the time, market movement is effectively random - there is approximately 50% chance price will move up and a 50% chance it will move down. If you entered long, you obviously felt there was a bias to the upside - therefore you should exit when, or before, that bias is gone and the market reverts to randomness.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #3
  • Apr 11, 2013 7:00pm Apr 11, 2013 7:00pm
Quoting numbnuts
Most of the time, market movement is effectively random - there is approximately 50% chance price will move up and a 50% chance it will move down. If you entered long, you obviously felt there was a bias to the upside - therefore you should exit when, or before, that bias is gone and the market reverts to randomness.
What about the chances that price won't move at all?
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #4
  • Apr 11, 2013 7:03pm Apr 11, 2013 7:03pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
This example, a Nzd/Jpy long. What is the best level to take profit? Is there a way to tell? http://i49.tinypic.com/jh8ubs.jpg
Can't see the timeframe, but whatever timeframe it is it is clearly closing over the s/r on that tf so it will need a higher tf s/r to stop it.

If you go to the higher tf and that is also closing over s/r on it's own timeframe you need to move up a tf again... and so on.

So, if daily is closing over daily s/r it will go to a weekly s/r at least. Simple price action
tradewith60
  • #5
  • Apr 11, 2013 7:06pm Apr 11, 2013 7:06pm
had a look, daily and weekly closing over s/r, it will not stop until it hits a monthly s/r

one right here, and next one up marked..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2013-04-12 at 01.04.39.png Size: 24 KB
tradewith60
  • #6
  • Apr 11, 2013 7:13pm Apr 11, 2013 7:13pm
I went out to monthly too. I like 87 for an exit. Lot of resistance there and its a Quasimodo for all the BRV fans.
  • #7
  • Apr 11, 2013 7:15pm Apr 11, 2013 7:15pm
So would you guys agree that 87.25-87.50 is the best level exit to a long? Can price go to 90.0?
  • #8
  • Apr 11, 2013 7:21pm Apr 11, 2013 7:21pm
hmm long term resistance on nzd/jpy?? Here's a riddle for you - why would that resistance still be relevant if the value of either nzd or jpy has changed relative to usd since those swing highs were formed?
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #9
  • Apr 11, 2013 7:27pm Apr 11, 2013 7:27pm
Quoting numbnuts
hmm long term resistance on nzd/jpy?? Here's a riddle for you - why would that resistance still be relevant if the value of either nzd or jpy has changed relative to usd since those swing highs were formed?
is this baffling with bullshit or dazzling with brilliance? or a bit of both?

Got to draw a line in the sand somewhere, same as everyone else...
tradewith60
  • #10
  • Apr 11, 2013 7:35pm Apr 11, 2013 7:35pm
Quoting 60minuteman
is this baffling with bullshit or dazzling with brilliance? or a bit of both? Got to draw a line in the sand somewhere, same as everyone else...
Of course price could go anywhere long term. I just stated where I would take profit or tighten my stop because there is a decent possibility that that level will turn price at least in the short term.
  • #11
  • Apr 11, 2013 7:43pm Apr 11, 2013 7:43pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Of course price could go anywhere long term. I just stated where I would take profit or tighten my stop because there is a decent possibility that that level will turn price at least in the short term.
I think I was saying the same as you Seneca?

I'm the same, mark the line where it might turn, then look for more information on the lower timeframes
tradewith60
  • #12
  • Apr 11, 2013 7:50pm Apr 11, 2013 7:50pm
Quoting 60minuteman
I think I was saying the same as you Seneca? I'm the same, mark the line where it might turn, then look for more information on the lower timeframes
Sorry I quoted the wrong post. I was replying to numbnuts.
  • #13
  • Apr 11, 2013 8:49pm Apr 11, 2013 8:49pm
Quoting numbnuts
hmm long term resistance on nzd/jpy?? Here's a riddle for you - why would that resistance still be relevant if the value of either nzd or jpy has changed relative to usd since those swing highs were formed?
The main question is a riddle

I would say, has the value of Nzd --> Jpy changed relative to each other.(instead of relative to USD.)
  • #14
  • Apr 11, 2013 9:28pm Apr 11, 2013 9:28pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
The main question is a riddle I would say, has the value of Nzd --> Jpy changed relative to each other.(instead of relative to USD.)
Thats correct, but to determine if that has happened you need to compare them both to a third currency. If nzd and jpy are both where they were before against the usd, or if they have both moved up or down by the same amount, then previous resistance levels on nzd/jpy may be relevant. If jpy has fallen relative to other currencies, but nzd has held, I don't see the relevance of previous s/r levels on a nzd/jpy chart.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #15
  • Apr 11, 2013 9:31pm Apr 11, 2013 9:31pm
What if one of their banks said they're going to rapidly increase money printing for like the next 2 years. Would a previous point of S/R even hold?
  • #16
  • Last Post: Apr 11, 2013 9:47pm Apr 11, 2013 9:47pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
What if one of their banks said they're going to rapidly increase money printing for like the next 2 years. Would a previous point of S/R even hold?
IMO there is no logical reason for it to hold, or even to have any effect whatsoever on price action since the relative value and dynamics of both currencies have changed drastically since those S/R levels were put on the chart. For NZD/JPY to stop and/or change direction, other major currency pairs must also change. They are all correlated. That is why I said on post #2, exit when you feel the reason for you being long is no longer there. Price levels on charts are all relative.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
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