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Top currencies that gives clear price action

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 10, 2013 4:08am Apr 10, 2013 4:08am
Hello Friends

Wanted to know which are top currencies that gives clear prediction on price movements, shows clear market outlook ,obeys psychological levels such as S/R ,Fibonacci etc. Please Let me know your frank opinions and suggestions.


Happy Trading
Regards
Eagleprice
  • #2
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:56am Apr 10, 2013 4:56am
No pair can have a clearer prediction based on historic pricing than any other, or else everyone would trade it the same direction. Current market happenings and forecasted events have an impact on price. For example, the bank of Japan announced last week that they were starting a huge bond-buying program to raise inflation, therefore devaluing their currency. The aftermath can be see on the charts.

IMO more liquid pairs like Eur/Usd Gbp/Usd and Usd/Jpy and other majors will not only have tight spreads but respect round numbers as more traders buy/sell options at these levels. Exotic options take place as well like no touch, one touch, double no touch, ect.
  • #3
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:57am Apr 10, 2013 4:57am
EUR/USD
AUD/USD
GBP/USD
EUR/GBP
USD/CAD

These are quite stable and predictable

For fast movers that aren't as predictable try EUR/JPY

Danny
  • #4
  • Edited 5:37am Apr 10, 2013 5:13am | Edited 5:37am
None of them or any trading instrument on any asset class for that matter does all those things - all of the time. Re Forex - trade the most liquid pairings - these are the majors.


Some observations I have found in my trading career to date:

1. TA is not an exact science.
2. See 1.above - this notwithstanding - some analysis /use of TA is just plain wrong.

3. Not all PA can tell you what the greater probability of future PA is.
4. The greater probability doesn't always play out.
5. PA alone - on all instruments, cannot tell you everything you may need/want to know.

6. Support/Resistance should be more accurately called 'potential supp/res.'
7. The more times pot supp/res gets hi the generally weaker it becomes in it's ability to act as such on a subsequent test.
8. Of all pot supp/res factors - the most important are the previous price pivots.
9. It is how price arrives at re PA as well as PA at pot supp/res that can (not always) give a clue as to the greater probability - ie break or bounce at such pot supp/res.
10. Conversely to part of point 9. above - it is how price bounces from pot supp/res that can tell you how strong it is.

Probability is all we have: Accept that the best you can achieve is to obtain an edge (understand what one is and is not,) ...[ find/use one that tells you what the greater probability is] and prove it in all market conditions and instruments you intend to trade over a large sample size (s.) Then acquire the psychological skillset to actually trade it profitably and consistently for long term gains which will involve screen time and practice. Optimise money and risk management to it and your own risk tolerances - such that it provides for the unforeseen, and does not leave you destabilised by the inevitable losing trade/sequence/unforeseen event (s) you may and almost probably will encounter at some point trading it.

Arguably the greatest advantage you have is that you can choose when to the enter the market - so do so when the probability of a successful outcome is strongly weighted in your favour.

G/L
ex member
  • #5
  • Apr 10, 2013 6:08am Apr 10, 2013 6:08am
Quoting Eagleprice
Hello Friends Wanted to know which are top currencies that gives clear prediction on price movements, shows clear market outlook ,obeys psychological levels such as S/R ,Fibonacci etc. Please Let me know your frank opinions and suggestions. Happy Trading Regards Eagleprice

According to my experience & recent price action of the market EU, USD/CAD, UJ, EJ are the best pairs to trade. Time to time these pairs change and you cannot trust them at all. If you have a good system and money management rules you can trade any pair regardless of the market conditions.
  • #6
  • Apr 10, 2013 10:48am Apr 10, 2013 10:48am
Quoting bbmac
None of them or any trading instrument on any asset class for that matter does all those things - all of the time. Re Forex - trade the most liquid pairings - these are the majors. Some observations I have found in my trading career to date: 1. TA is not an exact science. 2. See 1.above - this notwithstanding - some analysis /use of TA is just plain wrong. 3. Not all PA can tell you what the greater probability of future PA is. 4. The greater probability doesn't always play out. 5. PA alone - on all instruments, cannot tell you everything you may...
Dear bbmac

Thanks for your advice I agree with your suggestion that TA is not an exact science, And it really helped me out but I am talking about current market environment Where I see some pairs like GBP/USD ,AUD/USD holding quite good and showing some positiveness to technical levels,and this is really a good suggestion thanks a lot mate


Happy Trading
  • #7
  • Apr 10, 2013 10:53am Apr 10, 2013 10:53am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
No pair can have a clearer prediction based on historic pricing than any other, or else everyone would trade it the same direction. Current market happenings and forecasted events have an impact on price. For example, the bank of Japan announced last week that they were starting a huge bond-buying program to raise inflation, therefore devaluing their currency. The aftermath can be see on the charts. IMO more liquid pairs like Eur/Usd Gbp/Usd and Usd/Jpy and other majors will not only have tight spreads but respect round numbers as more traders buy/sell...
Dear Emeraldeyes

Thanks for your reply and opinion I agree that markets are not the same all time. and majors are quite better to trade

Thanks a lot and happy trading
  • #8
  • Apr 10, 2013 11:18am Apr 10, 2013 11:18am
Majors are the better choice, definitely.
  • #9
  • Apr 11, 2013 4:38am Apr 11, 2013 4:38am
Quoting Eagleprice
Hello Friends Wanted to know which are top currencies that gives clear prediction on price movements, shows clear market outlook ,obeys psychological levels such as S/R ,Fibonacci etc. Please Let me know your frank opinions and suggestions. Happy Trading Regards Eagleprice

The short answer is - no such currency.

The market is made of millions of humans and thousands of businesses and institutions trading with each other. Every single one of them has their own perceived value of how the market should behave. The marketplace is a reflection of all their ideas and opinions.

With that as a backdrop, you should understand why no currencies will always respect support resistance levels, psychological levels, Fibo levels etc because every player involved in this game has their own opinions where those levels should be.

However, major macroeconomic events can influence the direction of a currency for a sustained period of time. Take for example, the Bank of Japan recently announced a very aggressive monetary stimulus package in order to end their decade long deflation and shoot for inflation target of 2% in 2 years. The market viewed this as extremely negative for the JPY and they promptly sold off the JPY aggressively.

If you look at all the JPY currency pairs, you will see clear uptrend in all of the pairs. Clearly, the bias is for further weakening of the JPY. So in this case, you can clearly predict the direction of the JPY.
  • #10
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:01am Apr 11, 2013 5:01am
Quoting FXmazecracke
The short answer is - no such currency. The market is made of millions of humans and thousands of businesses and institutions trading with each other. Every single one of them has their own perceived value of how the market should behave. The marketplace is a reflection of all their ideas and opinions. With that as a backdrop, you should understand why no currencies will always respect support resistance levels, psychological levels, Fibo levels etc because every player involved in this game has their own opinions where those levels should be. However,...

Good one Mate. Totally agree with you.
  • #11
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:52pm Apr 11, 2013 5:52pm
Flip a coin then eh Stewart

Quoting WilliamDa
If you have a good system and money management rules you can trade any pair regardless of the market conditions.
I'm finding that the majors are a waste of time these days, more computerised systems have taken out all the good trends we used to enjoy.

Now they're just a cock fight.

I trade eurjpy at the moment, only one that moves enough on short tf
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #12
  • Apr 11, 2013 11:18pm Apr 11, 2013 11:18pm
All pairs move in same way....you just need to know how to find trade setup and trade it with proper MM.
been there done that, Good Bye
  • #13
  • Apr 12, 2013 1:04am Apr 12, 2013 1:04am
Quoting soultrader
Flip a coin then eh Stewart I'm finding that the majors are a waste of time these days, more computerised systems have taken out all the good trends we used to enjoy. Now they're just a cock fight. I trade eurjpy at the moment, only one that moves enough on short tf
That's the opinion we need to think of because nowadays cross pairs are quite predictable when compared to majors take a look at GBP/USD and GBP/JPY or EUR/USD and EUR/JPY we see a crystal clear difference and price movements any ideas or opinions on this
  • #14
  • Apr 12, 2013 9:36pm Apr 12, 2013 9:36pm
Quoting bbmac
1. TA is not an exact science. 2. See 1.above - this notwithstanding - some analysis /use of TA is just plain wrong. 3. Not all PA can tell you what the greater probability of future PA is. 4. The greater probability doesn't always play out. 5. PA alone - on all instruments, cannot tell you everything you may need/want to know.

TRUTH...

I thought PA was a good way to get some edge, but unfortunately I have seen Price Action fail over and over and over again.

Unfortunately this business is all mounted to say that if you fail, it's the trader's fault.

So, if you go to the PA Forum, they will hardly tell you that PA failed. They will tell you: "Well, you should have avoided that trade and this and this and this"... They will always blame the trader. It's the way this Online Retail Forex business has been thought...

It's very very easy to justify things, after they happen.

PA, same as Indicators, are lagging tools, and thus, they cannot help you at all to predict what will happen, because nobody knows it.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #15
  • Apr 13, 2013 1:15pm Apr 13, 2013 1:15pm
Mapleleaf, you seem to have a real bee in your bonnet in most of you posts lately.

Did you blow your account and trying hard to justify it to shift the blame?

If you did, then just accept it and move on. It's always your choice to trade or not to trade, no-one elses responsibility.

you talk of prediction and its not about prediction, its about probabilities and managing risk. There is a great difference.

you are right, no-one knows what will happen, all you can do is play the probabilities based on empirical evidence and then manage the risk associated.

chill man!
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #16
  • Apr 17, 2013 8:37am Apr 17, 2013 8:37am
Some currencies are easier to read more so than others but what people tend to find is that one year the AUDUSD could be easy to read but then next year it could be too messy and not be as profitable to certain technical analysis systems as it once was. Each pair shares it's own characteristcs, some pairs react better to support and resistance than others. Someone once told me that anything with the dollar is more better if you have a trend following system, more so than a system without the dollar involved. You'd probably make more profits trading support/resistance on EURGBP than you would on EURUSD, but that's just my take on it.
  • #17
  • Apr 17, 2013 5:55pm Apr 17, 2013 5:55pm
Quoting Danny Maina
EUR/USD AUD/USD GBP/USD EUR/GBP USD/CAD These are quite stable and predictable For fast movers that aren't as predictable try EUR/JPY Danny
AUD$ is a great pick

too many people overlook it of all the majors
  • #18
  • Apr 18, 2013 3:08am Apr 18, 2013 3:08am
Granted AUD is overlooked often and more on account of the narrow band. But the recent China fiscal news certainly made everyone do a rethink on AUD and crosses.
  • #19
  • Apr 21, 2013 3:53am Apr 21, 2013 3:53am
Just pick any currency from EU EJ USDCAD AUDUSD and follow their movement for sometime and things might appear more clear to you.
  • #20
  • Apr 22, 2013 5:30am Apr 22, 2013 5:30am
Quoting Forexnuts
Granted AUD is overlooked often and more on account of the narrow band. But the recent China fiscal news certainly made everyone do a rethink on AUD and crosses.
Try Plotting S and R Levels in AUD/USD it will be clear where the market is heading more often we miss major actions in aussie due to the timings
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