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vsa with Malcolm

  • #23,941
  • Apr 9, 2013 11:40pm Apr 9, 2013 11:40pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Nothing to add. You've been all over this one. Here's my chart. That KRB is a low volume Shake Out or Basic Test. {image}
HG, what "KRB" stands for?
  • #23,942
  • Apr 9, 2013 11:44pm Apr 9, 2013 11:44pm
Quoting joaoborras
HG, what "KRB" stands for?
key reversal bar
  • #23,943
  • Apr 9, 2013 11:55pm Apr 9, 2013 11:55pm
Quoting joaoborras
I am not good in multi time frame analysis but will try one with the euro, as it is an area that I have to improve a lot. So, please help me with this one! Here is a daily chart. I see no signs of weakness and the only immediate threat is the resistance level indicated. {image} Here is the 4hr chart. It is a bit more concerning related to an extended up move because the falling volume with higher prices. And we can see better the supply zone above us: {image} The 1hr chart shows we are in an up trend on this time frame(that I think is good to plan...
See if using 1h and under for intra day analysis and using 4h and up for you longer time frame analysis, helps with your multi TF analysis.

Daily does look as if its trying to break out of this potential accumulation period, and you nailed it that 4h looks like it is loosing steam. If 4h comes down and starts testing higher lows, then this would be an area to consider longs. 2930 has been a major s/r level since 2009, would be a good area to watch for testing.

We have had a hard move up since Thursday, so its only natural for price to come back down. As you pointed out the next supply area is above us, price will probably need to come down a bit to see how much supply is in the market and absorb it if necessary. It would be more concerning to see high volume on the up move, lack of volume just means no one is interested right now.
  • #23,944
  • Apr 10, 2013 12:21am Apr 10, 2013 12:21am
Quoting SimpleDev
I am going to have to start learning this, this weekend. HG you make the supply/demand zones look easy and useful! Thanks buddy. Kinsale/Jo you want to show some of your PnF goodness on this stock? CLF Daily.. From a VSA stand point, we have bag holding, then a 2 bar and followed by a test. This setup is still a bit early to start trading, has been in a wicked down trend since mid 2010, so we will want to see some positive results and testing on the lows. {image}
There is nothing to the up side yet, PnF wise.
Here is the daily chart. The projection here is a vertical one, based upon the double bottom breakout. It is what was used by stockcharts.com to make the low projection.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: clf pnf.jpg Size: 186 KB


Even if we use this congestion to try a horizontal projection, the price target was already reached.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: clf congestion breakout.jpg Size: 175 KB


Sorry it is difficult to read because the lines in the chart.

Here are some links for you to read about PnF projections:

vertical count: http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php...vertical_count
horizontal counts: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...rizontal_count
one more: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...and_figure_pri

Cheers!
  • #23,945
  • Apr 10, 2013 12:24am Apr 10, 2013 12:24am
Quoting SimpleDev
See if using 1h and under for intra day analysis and using 4h and up for you longer time frame analysis, helps with your multi TF analysis. Daily does look as if its trying to break out of this potential accumulation period, and you nailed it that 4h looks like it is loosing steam. If 4h comes down and starts testing higher lows, then this would be an area to consider longs. 2930 has been a major s/r level since 2009, would be a good area to watch for testing. We have had a hard move up since Thursday, so its only natural for price to come back...
Thanks SD.
Will keep an eye on the volume as price goes into that supply area. Good point on that one!

Cheers!
  • #23,946
  • Apr 10, 2013 5:27am Apr 10, 2013 5:27am
Quoting joaoborras
There is nothing to the up side yet, PnF wise. Here is the daily chart. The projection here is a vertical one, based upon the double bottom breakout. It is what was used by stockcharts.com to make the low projection. {image} Even if we use this congestion to try a horizontal projection, the price target was already reached. {image} Sorry it is difficult to read because the lines in the chart.
Hi Jo, i've tried to replicate the charts you've posted but when I search CLF I get a slightly different chart. What settings did you use?

The count in your first chart is wrong i'm afraid. You've correctly counted that there is 15 boxes in that column but then you've multiplied 10 x 3 to get 30. It should have been 15 x 3 = 45. Seeing as 44-45 = -1 this is an invalid or unachievable count. From all the literature I've read, this isn't a good place to be taking a count. Vertical counts should be from significant highs and lows.

The congestion count is better, correct me if i'm wrong but I think the 21 should be taken from the high of the X column to give us a target of 23 instead of 22. Minor difference but thought i'd point it out.

Below is the chart that is being generated for me.

Daily, Hi- Lo, Box Size - 1, Reversal 3, Scaling Method - User Defined, Scale Factor - 1 (this keeps every box as $1)

Two counts from the high that have been hit and a third (slightly more tentative) count that is projecting $5 as an objective. Personally I feel this is reaching a little but PnF projections have proved me wrong many times in the past. It's also worth noting that the last projection in a trend will fail, maybe this is the one that fails.

There's no upside target yet, but if we get a reaction to this long down column this will give us a projection.

Who can tell me where the high volume is?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10-04-2013_CLF_Daily.png Size: 115 KB
  • #23,947
  • Apr 10, 2013 5:37am Apr 10, 2013 5:37am
Quoting SimpleDev
Awesome, hopefully these charts are useful to folks. In all fairness though I have changed how I have traded a few times since joining the private forum but definitely hit my stride. I will keep my eyes open for 27 and 35 levels, PnF is usually spot on for its projections, thanks for the heads up! Are you having issues with sierra historical charts? Tried both using sierra's historical charts and FXCM, this bar should not be an UT. {image}
Here's my Daily chart, from FXCM, all the zones carried over from 1hr, so ignore those!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10-04-2013_EUDaily.jpg Size: 762 KB
  • #23,948
  • Apr 10, 2013 11:45am Apr 10, 2013 11:45am
Quoting SimpleDev
Not exactly, techincally if the next bar is up a test is considered successful. But with this chart the reason why I mentioned 2 bars, was because the 2nd bar closes above the high of bar 1. Yes.. In all honestly I went long on 5 bars prior the bar 3. I pointed out bar 3 because it is a perfect test.. small spread, dips below the previous bar and on very low volume. As far as the in between bars, think of it this way. Before bar 1, we had a double bottom, around $20. Its highly doubtful that the stock would be accumulated at $20 only to see a distribution...
Thank you once again SD for your detailed response. I am learning fast with these examples.
  • #23,949
  • Apr 10, 2013 11:46am Apr 10, 2013 11:46am
Quoting joaoborras
Well, not a specific pattern but I continue looking for VSA principles when prices fall. Here is an example of what happened with euro yesterday. I think I wrote a post on it, showing the UHV up bar, showing weakness and was willing to short on a pull back. But, along the day, it showed signs that there was buying pressure there indeed, as the low of the bar(well, not exactly the low) was defended. Remember to mark the low of any up bar with UHV or HV as the line in the sand to decide long or short. If the price breaks and stay below the low, it...
Hello Jo,

Yes it makes perfect sense to me. I completely understand your point. Thanks much for sharing your valuable inputs.
  • #23,950
  • Apr 10, 2013 2:52pm Apr 10, 2013 2:52pm
Back to basics:

Inserted Video
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VSA 1.png Size: 37 KB
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,951
  • Apr 10, 2013 11:11pm Apr 10, 2013 11:11pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
Hi Jo, i've tried to replicate the charts you've posted but when I search CLF I get a slightly different chart. What settings did you use? The count in your first chart is wrong i'm afraid. You've correctly counted that there is 15 boxes in that column but then you've multiplied 10 x 3 to get 30. It should have been 15 x 3 = 45. Seeing as 44-45 = -1 this is an invalid or unachievable count. From all the literature I've read, this isn't a good place to be taking a count. Vertical counts should be from significant highs and lows. The congestion count...
Oh! You are right, my count was completely wrong!! Both of them! Sorry for that!

To generate the PnF chart I used 1x3 settings.
And you are right on PnF projections. They give only a guideline. Even David Weis says that many times it fails big!

Again, sorry for the wrong counts.

Cheers!
  • #23,952
  • Apr 10, 2013 11:13pm Apr 10, 2013 11:13pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Back to basics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIza...508601&index=2 {image}
Great illustration, thanks!
  • #23,953
  • Apr 10, 2013 11:14pm Apr 10, 2013 11:14pm
I'd also like to contribute with a slide made by Richard Kigsdale, from TG. It is the Wyckoff logic sheet.
It is attached. It is a good graphic reference for the markets phases, as this on that HG posted to us.

Cheers!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 1 Wyckoff Logic landscape.pdf   1.5 MB | 1,318 downloads
  • #23,954
  • Apr 10, 2013 11:29pm Apr 10, 2013 11:29pm
euro readings. Comments are always welcome!

Daily chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro daily 2013411.jpg Size: 148 KB


4hr chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro 4hr 2013411.jpg Size: 139 KB


Cheers!
  • #23,955
  • Apr 11, 2013 12:54am Apr 11, 2013 12:54am
Quoting joaoborras
euro readings. Comments are always welcome! Daily chart: {image} 4hr chart: {image} Cheers!
You are on target with these, we are just waiting to see some result from this first.

Let me first start out that I am not advocating that you should base your trades off this, as to it is not all that clear. I advocate waiting for clear setups with massive volume, all I am saying is this level of 3065 will be interesting to watch today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h.png Size: 53 KB
  • #23,956
  • Apr 11, 2013 1:02am Apr 11, 2013 1:02am
Quoting joaoborras
I'd also like to contribute with a slide made by Richard Kigsdale, from TG. It is the Wyckoff logic sheet. It is attached. It is a good graphic reference for the markets phases, as this on that HG posted to us. Cheers! {image}


Thank you. I have wanted this for some time.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,957
  • Apr 11, 2013 1:32am Apr 11, 2013 1:32am
Quoting SimpleDev
You are on target with these, we are just waiting to see some result from this first. Let me first start out that I am not advocating that you should base your trades off this, as to it is not all that clear. I advocate waiting for clear setups with massive volume, all I am saying is this level of 3065 will be interesting to watch today. {image}
yes, I also think that level is important, because it was effort to rise or absorption volume.
Now, it is a 1hr chart. I think it has a lot of distribution signs in it, that can limit an up move at least for the last few hours or even during this week.
About the trend, even the 20SMA is already pointing down, the structure is still up. If and when the lower gold band breaks and price stays below, than the structure will start to change to negative. Well, at least in my opinion! :-)

Here is the chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro 1hr - 20130411.jpg Size: 160 KB


But I still cannot develop a good trading plan out of this. Because I see too many options. For example, we can wait a break out above the upper band or below the lower band to start to think about trades. Until this happens, do nothing. Or, we can try small longs until the upper band, then look for signals to go short from that level. Or, we can wait the price reaches the upper band to start shorts. Or, we wait the price to reach the lower band to start longs. Or, all these combined! :-) that's my problem right now. I think the issue is that I want to capture all and every pip available in the market(I know it is stupid but...).

So, really, I am asking for help on the trading plan issue. Help, pleeeaaase!
  • #23,958
  • Apr 11, 2013 2:02am Apr 11, 2013 2:02am
Quoting joaoborras
yes, I also think that level is important, because it was effort to rise or absorption volume. Now, it is a 1hr chart. I think it has a lot of distribution signs in it, that can limit an up move at least for the last few hours or even during this week. About the trend, even the 20SMA is already pointing down, the structure is still up. If and when the lower gold band breaks and price stays below, than the structure will start to change to negative. Well, at least in my opinion! :-) Here is the chart: {image} But I still cannot develop a good trading...
Honestly I am pretty bearish on EU, going back to that 1h chart, I did not high light the 2 bars at the top, the potential selling and the up thrust. But that is not the point.

Sounds like you still have a few things to figure out as far as what kind of trader are you.

I am sure you have read countless threads/books telling you to treat the market as a business. They way I think of it is if I opened up a fast food restaurant and first starting out I would not expect to have any where close to the amount of customers as lets say Mcdonalds has, right? As a trader I don't expect to find trades everyday. Honestly I haven't place a trade all week. But that is me, but I am also the type of trader that HG would refer to as foolish. As traders it would only make sense that the amount of customers we have is based on experience and knowledge.

Don't force trades and wait for the days when you can clearly read what the previous sessions did. Don't put your money on the table until you can say with out a doubt that the pair is bullish/bearish.
  • #23,959
  • Apr 11, 2013 2:14am Apr 11, 2013 2:14am
Quoting SimpleDev
Honestly I am pretty bearish on EU, going back to that 1h chart, I did not high light the 2 bars at the top, the potential selling and the up thrust. But that is not the point. Sounds like you still have a few things to figure out as far as what kind of trader are you. I am sure you have read countless threads/books telling you to treat the market as a business. They way I think of it is if I opened up a fast food restaurant and first starting out I would not expect to have any where close to the amount of customers as lets say Mcdonalds has, right?...
Hi SD, I appreciate your inputs.
yes, I acknowledge that I have to resolve some issues about my type of trading. I know I am a day trader, that is for sure. I also know that I want, preferably, find trades every day, because I trade for income. Also, I target 10 to 20 pips per day. I also prefer to trade only few pairs, eurusd, cabel and, maybe, audjpy.
I also know that I am a VSA trader, nothing else(when I try to bring things back to the table, it results in s*?t for sure).
Now comes the problem. I can find trades in every time frame! If I go to the 1min, I find good things there. Same on 5min. Then, when I look to the 1hr, I find something there BUT(and here is the big issue, I think), I don't want to wait the 1hr setup to complete. Patience is an issue with me. If I don't make a trade, I feel I am not working and that I am not worth as human being! :-) I know this is the corporation worker mindset and not the traders one but, I think that's the problem with me now.

I will think a lot about it. Again, thanks for your inputs, SD!

Cheers!
  • #23,960
  • Apr 11, 2013 2:40am Apr 11, 2013 2:40am
I just love it! I will put the pictures without commentaries(well, at least not long commentaries...) for your appreciation.
It is the audusd today.

The news:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie news 2013411.jpg Size: 12 KB


And the price action(15min chart):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: and the aussie price action 2013411.jpg Size: 197 KB


Beautiful, isn't it?
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