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4H Box Breakout

  • #5,281
  • Apr 9, 2013 3:04pm Apr 9, 2013 3:04pm
Hello all, thanks for all your input,

I live in a remote area where the time zone is different to most people on here,

I use a trailing stop, I set it at the size of the box, I set the Buy/sell with the 20 pip buffer,

i set and forget, ups and downs take care of themselves, I cannot adjust the s/loss or take profit,

I set on a monday and CLOSE all again on friday night ( saturday morning)

--the best part of this is the set and forget,

I can recomend other threads, as previously mentioned, learn learn , learn...

thanks,
  • #5,282
  • Apr 9, 2013 3:37pm Apr 9, 2013 3:37pm
Steve_D, thank you for your reply...for your weekly stats as of January ...

1. I understand that outside of the TS, you do not use 1X, 2X, 3X stops, just pure size of the box trailing stop?

2. Your weekly stats, it is per 2 or 3 currencies? GBJPY, EURJPY, USDJPY?

3. Do you use 2 percent of the balance on each? As an example one week potential loss is max 12%(if 3 pairs)?.... 6% per each side
  • #5,283
  • Apr 9, 2013 7:02pm Apr 9, 2013 7:02pm
whT is the range for trailing stop ?
  • #5,284
  • Apr 9, 2013 8:19pm Apr 9, 2013 8:19pm
Quoting driven18
Steve_D, thank you for your reply...for your weekly stats as of January ... 1. I understand that outside of the TS, you do not use 1X, 2X, 3X stops, just pure size of the box trailing stop? 2. Your weekly stats, it is per 2 or 3 currencies? GBJPY, EURJPY, USDJPY? 3. Do you use 2 percent of the balance on each? As an example one week potential loss is max 12%(if 3 pairs)?.... 6% per each side
Hi , yes trailing stop, size matches box..I think I would reconsidering a big box..ie if it goes above 150, I would not go above the 150.

I have shown 3 currencies to reflect world geography...Asia, Europe, US

You have to risk what you can afford to lose, your total stop/losses is the amount you could lose...can you live with a big hit..remember this is a week's trading, but losses are not nice, if 3 x trades equals 6%. if you are happy with this then you go for it, keep it DEMO until you are happy to lose.

Cheers, Steve
  • #5,285
  • Apr 9, 2013 8:20pm Apr 9, 2013 8:20pm
Quoting Jasper Ng
whT is the range for trailing stop ?
Hi jasper,

the trailing stop is the size of the box, I have mentioned that I will not go above 150, I don't like to give it all back, what do you think of this
  • #5,286
  • Apr 9, 2013 9:14pm Apr 9, 2013 9:14pm
Steve_D, what is your max risk per pair in the statistics that you provided?

Considering you trade 3 pairs....each pair can have two entries long and short and be stopped out of each......

Thank you for your responses...
  • #5,287
  • Apr 10, 2013 5:29am Apr 10, 2013 5:29am
Quoting steve d
Hello all, here are the figures from this morning..total stop losses are 641 gbp/jpy entry order buy 151.87 stop 142 eo sell 150.05 stop 142 eur/jpy eo buy 128.445 stop 102 eo sell 127.2 stop 102 us/jpy eo buy 99.042 stop 77 eo sell 97.86 stop 77 thanks, steve
Hello Guys, the total risk is the stop/loss, worst case scenario is having your trades triggered and then they go against you, I try to mention the total of the stops when I post the figures on a monday, last week's trade has a risk of 641...!!!!

always remember what you may lose, before you try to win...Cheers, S
  • #5,288
  • Apr 10, 2013 6:09am Apr 10, 2013 6:09am
Steve_D, the question is...how much of the percentage of the account you risk on each trade, considering you trade 3 pairs....each pair can have two entries long and short and can be stopped out of each......
  • #5,289
  • Apr 10, 2013 7:58pm Apr 10, 2013 7:58pm
Hello all, i can tell you that I will risk 1% or less on each trade, i have risked only 4% from now because i trade 2 pairings on this post.

i trade eur/jpy and gb/jpy only and this 4 tradings, 2 of buy and 2 of sell

thank you, sio
  • #5,290
  • Apr 13, 2013 4:57pm Apr 13, 2013 4:57pm
Quoting steve d
Hello Guys, the total risk is the stop/loss, worst case scenario is having your trades triggered and then they go against you, I try to mention the total of the stops when I post the figures on a monday, last week's trade has a risk of 641...!!!! always remember what you may lose, before you try to win...Cheers, S
steve, your results from last week please.
Bomi
Whats your take for next week? Are they continue go up? last week they did not even touch down line!!
  • #5,291
  • Edited 10:35pm Apr 13, 2013 10:24pm | Edited 10:35pm
Quoting steve d
Hi jasper, the trailing stop is the size of the box, I have mentioned that I will not go above 150, I don't like to give it all back, what do you think of this
I think once it reaches TP1 , I would like to put a trailing stop half of the size box , this is so that I can atleast enjoy 50% of the size of the box if it really go against me .

Btw last week was a good week as only BUy was triggered and AUD JPY was the highlight! it hit up to TP3 !!! awesome.


I understand everyone is concerned about the risk we are taking. This is a swing trade. The thing about swing trade is, your potential SL is high. Thus, YOu need to ask yourself how much you willing to lose before you take the trade, not the other way around. From what i checked from the past history, there wil lbe alot of occasion which one of the orders will be triggered because of spike. and end up hitting SL. but it can be covered using the other order. so in end you might end up break even.

Balance x %of risk /10*Number of pips for SL = Lot size
  • #5,292
  • Apr 14, 2013 3:00am Apr 14, 2013 3:00am
Yes, 300 pips and more on the AUD/JPY, it did go up a long way, thank you
  • #5,293
  • Apr 14, 2013 4:36pm Apr 14, 2013 4:36pm
I thought I would write and share some back testing results. I use Forex Tester for all my back testing and the tests are done manually. I usually test for a minimum of 2 years. I came across this thread last week, and because of its simplicity I put it through the wringer.
Well I have to say I am very impressed with the results.

I traded only one pair, EURJPY, had a starting account size of $29,000, traded 1 lot only on each position and traded it for 2 years.

At the 2 year mark I am up over $100,000... I am going to post an equity curve for you guys here and the break down of the stats.
The red line at the bottom of the graph represents the drawdown.

Hope this helps the newbies... my win rate was around 73%
  • #5,294
  • Apr 14, 2013 4:42pm Apr 14, 2013 4:42pm
Balance Chart...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Balance Chart.jpg Size: 380 KB
  • #5,295
  • Apr 14, 2013 5:16pm Apr 14, 2013 5:16pm
EURJPY Stats for a 24 month period....
Attached Image
  • #5,296
  • Apr 14, 2013 5:17pm Apr 14, 2013 5:17pm
DapperDan59, thanks...can you tell us the exact rules for your test, including Stop Losses, Trailing Stops, etc....
  • #5,297
  • Apr 14, 2013 5:52pm Apr 14, 2013 5:52pm
DAPPERDAN very good work Sir, well done

,....Please remember that this is a purely speculative method, it is based on a breakout of the JPY, if you want to learn how to trade please go to ""Trading made simple"....""James 16...Ichimoku""....or any other learning to trade places, thanks for all your positive input Guys,
  • #5,298
  • Apr 14, 2013 6:00pm Apr 14, 2013 6:00pm
After seeing how Steve d has done and what DapperDan has posted I am going to start trading this tonight. I am wondering about just one thing and that is the pip buffer of 20 pips that you are using. Don't you think it would be better to use a smaller pip buffer on U/J since it is not as volatile as E/J and G/J? I checked the ATR(20) on the 4H chart for each pair and found it to be: G/J .73 E/J .66 and U/J .43 So I was thinking of using a 20 pip buffer for G/J, an 18 for E/J and a 12 pip buffer for U/J. I hope you guys are not upset with me for suggesting this. I am not changing the system at all, I just think maybe it might be a good idea to adjust the buffer just a bit. Thanks for a great thread!
  • #5,299
  • Apr 14, 2013 6:17pm Apr 14, 2013 6:17pm
Hi Guys, hope you all had a good week, last week on the JPY pairs that I showed the results were GBP down 139, Eur up 46, US -93, overall DOWN 93 pips,

This week figures Monday 15/april/2013

GBP/JPY. ENTRY ORDER BUY 151.92 STOP/LOSS 108
ENTRY ORDER SELL 150.44 S/L 108

EUR/JPY ENTRY ORDER BUY 129.5 STOP/LOSS 61
ENTRY ORDER SELL 128.49 S/L 61

USD/JPY ENTRY ORDER BUY 98.9 STOP/LOSS 57
ENTRY ORDER SELL 97.93 S/L 57,

Please feel free to point out any errors, post a question etc.

THANKS TO ALL OF YOU FOR THE POSTINGS FROM LAST WEEK, Cheers Steve
  • #5,300
  • Apr 14, 2013 6:25pm Apr 14, 2013 6:25pm
Hi again, here is the screen grab for the FIRST 4 HOURS of the new week, It started at 7 am and finished at 11 am,

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy b out april 15.png Size: 158 KB
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