Trading EURUSD only

OMG I hope this holds. I am short @ 1.3017

Oh right, have I made someone happy?

Oh yea brother if true of the gap down of Ms Markets action put me in high clover

My indo said sell @ 1.3017 late on Friday so I did like a mindless dolt (trade what you see not what you think)

If not I still have longs in play. What will be will be...

1.2922 it's just a mistake on ask price on some pairs. It´s usual on xe.com.
Why eur, chf and gbp will move and not jpy?.

Anyway gap down is possible.

Chill, you made me miserable, I'm long @ 1.29975, but I'll go stare at the moon and pray a bit

ET JD got your mail bro, good job. Very neat sys, makes sense. Good job to Hot Mama too. I have a few questions that came right away while reading, but most of them will need deeper understanding of the system before I ask you, so I'll look into it some more.

Do you set your range levels based on analysis or observation and do they change dynamically ?

Thanks again, for sharing = saving others same mistakes!

Thank you brother on the positive feedback.


My extreme price range doesnt change unless the market changes. For example the Ms Market is trading below 1.40 and 1.20 so no need to alter it.

If the Ms Market goes under or over that then I need to adjust it accordingly. Its just a simple entry and everything is recalculated instantly.

You can ask any and all the questions you want. I am always here for another brother in FX arms.

The net amount of investor cash betting the euro would fall rose 33% to a four-month high in the past week, government data showed Friday.
Investors added to their net short euro position--or positions that would benefit if the euro depreciated against the dollar--for a fourth-consecutive week.
As of April 2, investors increased their anti-euro bets to $10.5 billion, from $7.9 billion in the previous week, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly report on the commitments of traders. This was the biggest anti-euro bet in the futures market since the week ending Nov. 27.
The rise in negative euro sentiment came after the euro zone released manufacturing data last Tuesday that confirmed fears of a prolonged economic downturn in the region. Spain's manufacturing activity had its steepest decline in five months, while Ireland's contracted for the first time in 13 months.
The poor data raised expectations the European Central Bank may cut interest rates later in the year to boost the region's economy. A rate cut would reduce the appeal of euro-denominated assets for investors.
Meanwhile, investors pared back their bets the yen would drop against the dollar. The net yen short position fell 11% last week to $10.5 billion.
Investors also reduced their bets in favor of the Australian dollar by 2% from the previous week. Investors held a long Australian dollar position totaling $8.8 billion as of April 2.
Investors increased their net long dollar positions to $24.7 billion, up 5% from the previous week.
The report tracks the movements of speculators on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Although representing a small part of the global currency markets, the positions of these investors are considered indicators of trading among investors such as hedge funds. The CFTC's weekly report shows investors' open positions in futures contracts in major currencies held against the dollar.

we aware of your daddybear
if needed we will visit
thanks

Hello EuroTraderJD:


Can you tell me what news source you are using for trading ? I see you posted the Non-Farm Payrolls results 1 min after it came out, pretty darn fast.


Also in post Post# 42,277 at 8:29 AM EST you said “My long@40 ITM waiting to short”.


Isn't it dangerous to be in a trade just before the NFP ?


Where you long because of your indicators/PA or where you just long for fundamental reasons ?


Thanks


PS:


This is a great thread started by Steve. Thanks Steve.


With lots of great posts on the EURUSD by expert traders.

Hello:

I have a EURUSD question for any one here who might know the answer.

On April 5, 2013 there was the Non-Farm Payrolls report at 8:30 EST. But if you look at the chart for that day you can see that EURUSD was moving up rapidly from the 7:15 Lo and even faster starting at 8:05. All of this before the report even comes out.

The question which is bothering me, is why the big move up in price right before the NFP comes out ?

I can see no technical reason for the move up before the NFP. The move from the 6:10 Hi to the 7:15 Lo retraced 0.90 of the move from 5:55 Lo to 6:10 Hi. All of the fibonacci levels were penetrated which to me is bearish. Trying to do Elliott wave does not work either. I can't see a good candle sticks reason.

Does any one have a good explanation either technical or fundamental for this ?

Thanks

.

Easy: privileged info.

Forex is the dirtiest casino in the world.

Hi Borg - I would be happy to share all I know.

For news I monitor Twitter / Real Time Forex News / fxTrade News / Zero Hedge

For big events Real Time Forex News often has a free link to hear an anaylist give his thoughts. They usualy say the number secs after it is released. Sometimes you can here the staff reaction in the background like ohh or YES. Since I am not the sharpest tool in the box I can tell if the number is good or bad.

Twitter often has the news before most sources.

Now for my long positions. As most everyone knows I trade without SL in a pyramid formation so I had some existing longs. My indos triggered this entry a while back and for some reason I didnt get out when it was ITM. I work from home as a self employed Software engineer & database admin so I may have been on the phone with a client or at a client site. Regardless if patient and trading smaller than rational in a pyramid formation Ms Market always seem to validate my position.

Yes I do not try to trade right before an event. I try to wait 5 min or so. The knee jerk is often wrong. Its a BIG gamble I did take a short on the spike down and even posted it was a gamble. I was able to get out for a few pips. When trading spikes you get in quick but dont forget to get out just as quick.

Steve has great advice about news trading. Not recommended. News is just a catalyst a kicker. And AGREED Steve has a great forum here. There are 3 I am on at all times and this is one of them. Another one is fantastic and another one although popular has a rough crowd dominated by a few bullies.

BTW the ones who PMd me late yesterday and last night asking for my MM pdf I will email it to you when i get to my office in a few hours. Its Sunday and I am at Hot Mamas just finished the breakfast she made and listening to Casey Kasem Music from the 70's on iHeart radio April 1977 today). It takes me back to my teen years when times were good as I stroll down memory lane.

http://www.iheart.com/live/2029/?autoplay=true

Brother I have seen this many times. One thing is around 8ish US opens so there are a flood of orders moving the PA. Same @ 3Am when London opens.

When I see a run up like a football lineman charging the opposing team right before the ball is snapped I think someone got tipped off. Its called a rigged game for several reasons. Once a fast big move begins it trips stops and others see it and join in. Herd mentality.

AMEN Gods truth

EUR/USD Forecast April 8-12




EUR/USD had a roller coaster week, flirting with low support only to come back as a winner. Industrial Production in Germany, France and the Eurozone as well as, the Eurogroup and ECOFIN Meetings are the major events this week. Here is an outlook on the main events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, which is just under 1.30.
Last week, the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged as expected. The roller coaster came during the press conference, where Draghi hinted about a rate cut, in May or June, but also provided a firm commitment to the euro project. The ECB still believes the Eurozone will strengthen this year, but will keep a close watch the economy, to see if conditions continue to worsen. In light of a monetary blitz from Japan and no near end in sight to QE in the US after the poor Non-Farm Payrolls report, the euro is certainly supported.
EUR/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-conten...13-350x186.png

 

1. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. Euro zone sentiment plunged in March to -10.6 from -3.9 in February stopping a six-month rise, due to the inconclusive election in Italy. However investor sentiment in Germany, improved in March, highlighting the differences between the euro zone’s largest economy and its weak, debt-ridden southern periphery. A further decline to -12.6 is expected now.
2. German Industrial Production : Monday, 11:00. German industrial output remained unchanged in January, with expansion in the construction sector evened by drops in the energy and manufacturing industries. this figure as well as related data imply that industrial orders unexpectedly contracted in January, indicating the ongoing weakness in the euro zone’s largest economy. A gain of 0.4% is anticipated.
3. German Trade Balance: Tuesday, 7:00. Germany’s trade surplus narrowed in January to 15.7 billion, amid a growth in imports. Exports also increased but there was a fall in manufacturing orders. Nevertheless, leading indicators like the Ifo business climate index shown a sharp rebound at the beginning of 2013, but there were also missed figures. Trade surplus is expected to grow to 16.2 billion.
4. French Gov Budget Balance: Tuesday, 7:45. The central government budget deficit narrowed to 12.8 billion in January from a deficit of 87.2 billion in December. However the reading was worse than the 12.5 billion deficit registered last January. France is struggling with rising unemployment, piling pressure on President Francois Hollande who has pledged to reverse the upward trend by year-end.
5. French Industrial Production: Wednesday, 7:45. French industrial production contracted 1.2% in January, from a 0.9% rise in December, due to weak auto and agri-food production. This was the sharpest fall since September, missing forecasts for a minor decline of 0.1%. A rise of 0.6% is forecasted.
6. Italian Industrial Production: Wednesday, 9:00. Italian industrial output surprised with a rise of 0.8% in January after four consecutive monthly of decline, The reading was contrary to predictions of a 0.3% fall. However ISTAT said the sharp rise in January was probably linked to monthly volatility linked to a re-basing of the index. Therefore it is unlikely that this rebound will continue in the coming months. A contraction of 0.4% is anticipated this time.
7. French CPI: Thursday, 6:30. French consumer prices increased less than expected in February gaining 0.3% after a 0.5% contraction in January. Economists expected a rise of 0.5%, but lower seasonal rises reduced the CPI rise. Another increase of 0.7% is expected.
8. ECB Monthly Bulletin: Thursday, 9:00. In the March release of the European Central Bank bulletin, it was stated that the recent Euro strength is a downside risk to inflation, but inflation risks are broadly balanced. The ECB forecasts that inflation will not exceed the 2% level in the coming months. In addition, medium and longer term expectations are in line with the 2% ECB target.
9. German WPI: Friday, 7:00. Wholesale Price Index rose mildly by 0.1% in February, lower than the 0.4% increase predicted by analysts, and following a 0.3% increase in January. On an annual basis the German Wholesale Price Index rose 1.4% in February, compared with 2.3% the previous month. A bigger rise of 0.3% is forecasted now.
10. Industrial Production: Friday, 10:00. Industrial production in the 17 countries sharing the euro declined more than expected at the beginning of 2013 contracting 0.4%, after a 0.9% gain in December. Production in France and Germany fell indicating the EU is struggling to emerge from recession. Some analysts believe the ECB should respond to these weak figures and cut rates even further. A gain of 0.3% is predictednow.
11. Eurogroup Meetings: Friday. The finance ministers of the 17- nation euro-area will meet in Dublin to discuss the aid program for Cyprus. The memorandum of understanding reached with Cyprus has to be met in order to continue with the aid plan. The Eurogroup discussions will also include the loan program for Greece, the direct recapitalization of banks out of the European Stability Mechanism, and the outcome of the latest mission of the troika to Ireland to review payment of a new tranche out of the European Financial Stability Facility.
12. ECOFIN Meetings: Saturday. The Eurogroup is a meeting of the Finance Ministers of the Member States using the Euro. ECOFIN meeting focuses on current economic and financial issues and is composed of two joint working sessions as well as working lunches. The Irish Presidency will host the informal ECOFIN in April 2013 where the working sessions will take place in the Dublin Castle Conference Center.

*All times are GMT
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
Euro/dollar began the week trading in a range, capped by the 1.2880 line (mentioned last week). Everything changed on Thursday, as Draghi sent the pair to dip just below support at 1.2750 (a 4.5 month low) only to swing higher. The 1.2960 line capped EUR/USD at first, but it eventually rose towards 1.3050 before closing just under 1.30.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
1.34 was a stubborn cap during the spring of 2012 and continued its stubborn stance in January 2013 – the line now serves as resistance. These are the head and shoulders lines. 1.3350 was a peak in January 2013 and worked very nicely as support during February. The line is weaker now.
Below, 1.3290 served as resistance before the pair collapsed in May, After many failures to break higher, the euro finally pushed through. 1.3255 provided support during January 2013 and also beforehand. A recovery attempt failed to reconquer this line.
1.3170, which was the peak of September, served as support for the pair after the break in December and worked as strong resistance after the Italian elections. This is a key line, now on the upside. 1.3130 proved to be strong resistance during December 2012 showed its strength in March 2013 as well.
1.3100 is a minor line after working as temporary resistance in December 2012. It is followed by 1.3050, which capped the pair in early April and also had a role beforehand.
The very round 1.30 line was a tough line of resistance for the September rally. In addition to being a round number, it also served as strong support. It is becoming stronger. 1.2960 provided some support at the beginning of the year and also in September and October – the line is strengthening once again after working as a triple bottom. It remains an important line.
Lower, 1.2880 worked in both directions during 2012 and was the beginning of the uptrend support line. The recent breakdown turned the line into strong resistance. Lower, 1.2805 was the bottom border of the wide 1.2805-1.3170 that characterized the pair’s trading for a long time.
Below, 1.2750 worked as a separator of ranges during November, and stopped the pair’s drop in March. This is a key line on the downside, as clearly shown in the first week of April. This is followed by the round number of 1.27, which is minor as
A more important line is the trough of November 1.2660. 1.2624, which was a bottom in January 2012 is the next significant line, especially when looking at the weekly chart. Further below, 1.2587 is worth mentioning.
Downtrend Support
As shown on the graph (think black line), EUR/USD is sliding on downtrend support since late February. The pair escaped this line.
I am neutral on EUR/USD
The euro is stuck in an ugly contest between the European issues on one hand, and the monetary easing from the US and Japan.
The new governor of the BOJ announced a very comprehensive plan to fight deflation, and this already hit the yen. It is expected to cause outflows from Japan and into the euro-zone among other regions. In the US, the picture has worsened: after signs of an accelerated recovery, we witness a significant slowdown that culminated in the disappointing jobs report.
However, things aren’t improving: repercussions of the crisis in Cyprus, a funding gap in Portugal, a delayed troika report in Greece, issues in Slovenia, a fear of a recession in Germany and an ongoing political crisis in Italy are all weighing on the euro-zone, which now suffers an unemployment rate of 12%. These two forces could balance each other in the coming week. A rate cut in Europe (which Draghi hinted about) could tip the weight towards a weaker euro later on.
More technical analysis: EUR/USD Bearish Trend Drops to 50% of Prior Bullish Trend by James Chen.

A respected trader on another forum said we are going to gap down. Looks like he is correct.

Here is the source.
http://www.xe.com/

I am short @ 1.3017 and standing tall in high clover

To all my FX brothers who PM me with their email addresses. I left Hot Mama's and am in the office now. Your MM Pyramid pdf has been sent.

Again I am humbled by the number of requests. I am always here for you.

My trading Idea for this week is based on symmetric thoughts which are supported by fibonacci-levels.

Key points this week for me are:
- 1.2965 as a possible turning point for gap-closing (if it opens below that is...)
- 1.2855 as key for H4 decision regarding further direction
If 2855 support stays valid:
- 1.3030´s as a possible resistance
- 1.3100 as my personal target level for this week´s close.