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Open/Close Crossover Method

  • #141
  • Jun 13, 2006 1:28am Jun 13, 2006 1:28am
Bernadette,

I don't use any other indicators. I use to use Parabolic SARS, but now I don't. If "Every piece of information is in the price" then I'm just going to look at the price..

Golden Girl,

Let me know how it goes.. I'm working 19 pairs, and I've got it down now..

I will make a new Excel spreadsheet for it, from what I've learned..
google:
  • #142
  • Jun 13, 2006 1:57am Jun 13, 2006 1:57am
I made a new spreadsheet after I had a chance to trade 19 pairs for a day..

So I've attached the spreadsheet..

I feel it's self-explanitory, but if you need more help on how to use it, let me know..
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip OCCv3_Tracking.zip   2 KB | 705 downloads
google:
  • #143
  • Jun 13, 2006 2:02am Jun 13, 2006 2:02am
Quoting twoblink
The 55pip level was only reached 5 times in a year and a half?? ARE YOU SURE?? What pair? Because on mine, it doesn't look that way!
On GBP/USD.
I am talking about the trades that only reached 55 level and nothing more,never reached 89.And totaly valid trades,if they were stoped out even for one pip i did not include them,altough they might not been stoped out if they were pinpoint manualy.

My results are:
38 wins,79 losses BUT!!!! The most you can losse in a trade is 39 pips(3 units), and the most profitable trade is app. 1400 pips and the average win per trade is 263,44 pips,so it still gives you app. 7000 pips profit(1.5 years).
AND IT SI IMPORTANT TO KNOW that the losses should be much less if you would enter more exactly on a smaler time frame,because the next 4h bar after a signal does often make a small retracement and it often wipes your stop-loss which is only 13 pips(the results with 21 pips stop are in my testing worse than in 13 pips stop).Waiting for only 5-10 pips better price can make a big difference.

Did you get a similar results?

By
  • #144
  • Jun 13, 2006 2:16am Jun 13, 2006 2:16am
Happy Camper, those aren't the results I see.. can you post a screenshot??

Remember, you can lose 95% of the time, but if your 5% just shakes its booty like Jennifer Lopez, then you will come out the winner.

I'd rather be losing 95% of the trades but still make a profit, then winning 95% of the trades and still not making money.

Remember, the name of the game is:

PIP HOARDING.
google:
  • #145
  • Jun 13, 2006 2:58am Jun 13, 2006 2:58am
It seems to me we missunderstood eachother.I am very excited about the system,i think it's very good,and i totaly understand what you mean with the 95 %.
The thing is that the system has already proven to be profitable(atleast from backtesting,not from real),but improvements can be maid to make it even better(I'm sure you knew that already),so based on my testing i wanted to contribute my two cents with an idea.
Now im not sure if i tested it wrong or we do not use the same sytem or something.
Could you throw in some numbers on the results of your backtesting?

Here is a screenshot of what I see on the chart.

Take care

BY
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Doc1.doc   81 KB | 543 downloads
  • #146
  • Jun 13, 2006 4:31am Jun 13, 2006 4:31am
Quoting LadyofMusic1
Can you tell me please what a triangle moving average is? In Metatrader I only find simple, exponemtial, smoothed, and linear weighted. Thanks so much!! I am new to trading and am trying out methods to see what works for me. I appreciate all of the info I read on this site!
I havnt a clue either on this one but there is a brilliant book called encyclopedia of chart patterns by Thomas Bulkowski which should help you a lot re patterns which includes triangles.I have found it very useful.Good Luck
  • #147
  • Jun 13, 2006 4:44am Jun 13, 2006 4:44am
I'm anal and ridiculous.. why stop at that?

So...

Happy Camper, buddy, you are either eating some bad jujubees or something, because while objects in mirrors tend to be closer than they appear, mine don't look anything close to yours!! Just kidding.. But you are screwing up SOMEWHERE... I don't know where..

So...

OCCv31 (Just for you!!!) 2 screen shots, I have put green dots in the trades that the trading signal gave which have hit the 89 pip mark... I count 20 just from the quick eye scan from now back to Nov'05 on the GBP/USD 4H chart. Attached. The short name tag also now shows what the two take profit points are.. (Full 1024x768 screen shots)

I have also programmed the take profit lines on the second frame, so you know if the trade should have taken profit or not, on the back testing.

As far as FORWARD testing.. so far, so good. I got 2 semi-false signals which screwed me over.. and 2 order entries I screwed up on.

On OCCv31, I have moved the stop back to -21. But in reality, if you are trading pairs with spreads of >7 pips, then you pretty much need to add the spread to the -21. For example, if the spread was -10 pips, then you need to set the stop to -30.. So the -21 (technically) should be -21 pips not including the spread against you.

The biggest problem has been false signals.. I've had two that ended up in stopping out.. The were signals for a while, but by the close of the bar, they weren't.. So.. the entire system is based on a good entry, but I'm wondering how "badly" next bar entry will do to the system. 4H is a LONG TIME...
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip occv31.zip   169 KB | 743 downloads
google:
  • #148
  • Jun 13, 2006 6:20am Jun 13, 2006 6:20am
Quoting twoblink
I'm anal and ridiculous.. why stop at that?


The biggest problem has been false signals.. I've had two that ended up in stopping out.. The were signals for a while, but by the close of the bar, they weren't.. So.. the entire system is based on a good entry, but I'm wondering how "badly" next bar entry will do to the system. 4H is a LONG TIME...
You mean you enter before the bar is closed?
I see the problem-I was testing exactly like it would be traded automaticly and that means I only enterd when the bar was closed and the signal comfirmed.

Well,good luck with testing all those 19 pairs

I'll be in touch,
  • #149
  • Jun 13, 2006 10:09am Jun 13, 2006 10:09am
Twoblink, in your attached snapshot, I noticed a tag that reads "OCCv30(55,E,3)." Does this mean you are shifting your EMA by 3 periods??
  • #150
  • Jun 13, 2006 10:38am Jun 13, 2006 10:38am
No, it means that the ATR Trailing stop is using 3xATR.

This link will describe what I mean. Version 3.1 shows the stop levels as well.

http://www.startraderreport.com/Arti...pArticle1.html

2ATR's in red, 3ATR's in black.

http://www.startraderreport.com/Arti...opExample2.gif


Keep in mind though, mine is slightly modified according to this link

http://taylortree.com/2006/01/innovating-exits.html
google:
  • #151
  • Jun 13, 2006 11:00am Jun 13, 2006 11:00am
So.. Trading 19 pairs.. Adding audible signals made it fairly easy, I basically left it on, and only had to check it when I heard myself start talking; saying either "UpTrend" or "DownTrend".

Just FYI, when I start trading, I usually make customized settings for each currency pair. That way, I can add customized audible alerts to each pair. So I usually have myself saying "UpTrend alert on GBP/USD" or "DownTrend on USD/JPY". etc.. That way, no muss, no fuss, you know what you need to do, all the time, no guesswork, and no need to think about it. That also means, basically, it's NEAR autotrading. I manually trade, but the signals tell me when to get in and get out.

So.. I've exited on limits on the NZD/USD at +55 and +89 pips, and have moved the trailing stop on the final lot to the +55 point.

I screwed up order entry on twice, and I followed 2 false signals. If you discount those two, then I only had exited once on stops, and I'm profitable on 2.

So after two days:

Screwed up the order entries: Twice; for 6 bad lots total.
Followed False signals: Twice
Exited on profit lock-in's at +55 and +89: Once
Currently in the money: Two pairs.

Overall, doing really well.. learning a lot.

For one thing, I'm moved the stops to -21 + spread. That seems necessary for pairs that had spreads with like 9 or 10 pips. I won't trade these for real, but I figure, trading 19 pairs let me learn more about my trading system 19 times faster..

I don't care about when London opens or when NY opens etc.. I just take signals. Absolutely don't care about when reports come out either. No other indicators. It's 100% 2 moving averages, and modified ATR Trailing stop.

There is a reason for this; When I hear the news, how will people react to it? I don't know, if I knew, I'd be rich! What about not trading during major news? Well, what constitutes "major news"?? I basically want to mechanicalize this system as much as possible, so it's as close to straight probability as I can get, so for once, I can be the "House" instead of the "Sucker".

Also, I'm in Taiwan, I will eventually take a trip around the world as a vacation, and during that time, I will probably be trading from a laptop as well, and so I won't have the luxury of defining when to get in or out based on timezones, as I will be in at least 9 different timezones.

110% mechanical trading. I see a signal, I buy or sell. I see the two things which will cause exits of the position, I exit.

I hope to get a grand tally and a detailed write up at the end of the week.
google:
  • #152
  • Jun 13, 2006 1:07pm Jun 13, 2006 1:07pm
Quoting twoblink
So.. Trading 19 pairs.. Adding audible signals made it fairly easy, I basically left it on, and only had to check it when I heard myself start talking; saying either "UpTrend" or "DownTrend".

Just FYI, when I start trading, I usually make customized settings for each currency pair. That way, I can add customized audible alerts to each pair. So I usually have myself saying "UpTrend alert on GBP/USD" or "DownTrend on USD/JPY". etc.. That way, no muss, no fuss, you know what you need to do, all the time, no guesswork, and no need to think about it. That also means, basically, it's NEAR autotrading. I manually trade, but the signals tell me when to get in and get out.

So.. I've exited on limits on the NZD/USD at +55 and +89 pips, and have moved the trailing stop on the final lot to the +55 point.

I screwed up order entry on twice, and I followed 2 false signals. If you discount those two, then I only had exited once on stops, and I'm profitable on 2.

So after two days:

Screwed up the order entries: Twice; for 6 bad lots total.
Followed False signals: Twice
Exited on profit lock-in's at +55 and +89: Once
Currently in the money: Two pairs.

Overall, doing really well.. learning a lot.

For one thing, I'm moved the stops to -21 + spread. That seems necessary for pairs that had spreads with like 9 or 10 pips. I won't trade these for real, but I figure, trading 19 pairs let me learn more about my trading system 19 times faster..

I don't care about when London opens or when NY opens etc.. I just take signals. Absolutely don't care about when reports come out either. No other indicators. It's 100% 2 moving averages, and modified ATR Trailing stop.

There is a reason for this; When I hear the news, how will people react to it? I don't know, if I knew, I'd be rich! What about not trading during major news? Well, what constitutes "major news"?? I basically want to mechanicalize this system as much as possible, so it's as close to straight probability as I can get, so for once, I can be the "House" instead of the "Sucker".

Also, I'm in Taiwan, I will eventually take a trip around the world as a vacation, and during that time, I will probably be trading from a laptop as well, and so I won't have the luxury of defining when to get in or out based on timezones, as I will be in at least 9 different timezones.

110% mechanical trading. I see a signal, I buy or sell. I see the two things which will cause exits of the position, I exit.

I hope to get a grand tally and a detailed write up at the end of the week.
Brilliant job twoblink....we appreciate your hard work...

We will be more than happy to try it before you officially launch the whole package... I hope you will have it for meta4 as well...

TIA
{Link Removed}]
  • #153
  • Jun 13, 2006 1:36pm Jun 13, 2006 1:36pm
Quoting kenari05
Brilliant job twoblink....we appreciate your hard work...

We will be more than happy to try it before you officially launch the whole package... I hope you will have it for meta4 as well...

TIA
So, can we get a brief recap of the rules?? Thanks
  • #154
  • Jun 13, 2006 5:18pm Jun 13, 2006 5:18pm
Hi TWOBLINK,

Thanks for the explanation and the link. Can I have ATR using 3xATR in Meta4 so that I can start forward testing your system?

Regards,



Quoting twoblink
No, it means that the ATR Trailing stop is using 3xATR.

This link will describe what I mean. Version 3.1 shows the stop levels as well.

http://www.startraderreport.com/Arti...pArticle1.html

2ATR's in red, 3ATR's in black.

http://www.startraderreport.com/Arti...opExample2.gif


Keep in mind though, mine is slightly modified according to this link

http://taylortree.com/2006/01/innovating-exits.html
  • #155
  • Jun 13, 2006 7:24pm Jun 13, 2006 7:24pm
It's actually difficult to "recap" the rules, as I keep modifying them, trying a few new things..

As for trailing ATR, I gotta believe with some searching, you can find it online for the MT4. I'm haven't had time to look at MT4 in detail, and so the programs will have to come later after I have solidified things on the VT side. Sorry!!

I wish I was wearing red and blue spandex and can be Superman, but I'm not!! So I will have to progress little by little.

You can get a demo VT account though..
google:
  • #156
  • Jun 13, 2006 8:57pm Jun 13, 2006 8:57pm
I was going to ask if anybody was interested in me writing down, my thought process. But as it will probably turn out to be a haphazard novel with spastic topics thrown it, I gave it its own home.

So I now have started a trading journal..

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=5880

It will document my thinking, my searching, what I am considering, what I send and email myself to remind myself where I left off, etc..
google:
  • #157
  • Jun 13, 2006 11:23pm Jun 13, 2006 11:23pm
My trading of 19 pairs has been interrupted by a few discoveries.. <FBI&CIA> I can neither confirm nor deny, the verasity of the following statement, but it seems that quite a few simple and effective filters can be implimented to filter out the unwanted trades.</FBI&CIA>

So I'm in the process of confirming or denying my discovery..
google:
  • #158
  • Jun 14, 2006 12:13am Jun 14, 2006 12:13am
i have been using your 34 open/close ema to enter and cci over 200 and back to 150 for exit on the 5 min and it works great
  • #159
  • Jun 14, 2006 8:12am Jun 14, 2006 8:12am
Quoting twoblink
My trading of 19 pairs has been interrupted by a few discoveries.. <FBI&CIA> I can neither confirm nor deny, the verasity of the following statement, but it seems that quite a few simple and effective filters can be implimented to filter out the unwanted trades.</FBI&CIA>

So I'm in the process of confirming or denying my discovery..
We wait with bated breath...
  • #160
  • Jun 14, 2006 8:47am Jun 14, 2006 8:47am
It's doing quite well.. These which produced clear signals, are in the money, and 1 pair has closed out on profits of +55 +89 +55. The market is a bit wild right now.

Also, haven't had as much time to babysit it today, as I have been writing a journal, and also, tried out about 5 different systems people have sent me..
google:
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