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Trading EURUSD only

  • #42,061
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:01am Apr 4, 2013 10:01am
Quoting Robby
I do not want to risk over 5% of total account generally. Only when I have a good setup will I go over. As far as what I what kind of trading I do. I guess you could call me a position person. I just try to catch the swing on a daily chart. ROI really depends. Some it's (-) and some it's over 1:20 avg it's about 1:3. Win loss for the last 12 months has been 3 loss with 11 gains. I do not trade the market active. Last 3 weeks I have been looking at it because I feel their is a good chance to make some money. Why I am here. Time will only tell...
With your win to loss ratio, what is your risk/reward ratio? As for me I use 15-20% margin (sometimes more) to achieve 5-10%/month. My risk reward is a 1:3 (example stop/loss 20pips, reward 60pips). Except for when I scalp I lower it to a 5% ratio and my risk reward ratio becomes more like a 1:1 (usually I do not have stops on when I scalp)
  • #42,062
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:05am Apr 4, 2013 10:05am
I will if I happen to be around the computer. I have the level to be notify by txt/email that is were I have to see how the market is moving when it get their to figure out if I should leave or stay. Were I think the shorts would come in to try and take it down to a lower low. It is getting more and more risk for shorts. This move today has scared some of the shorts away. One can never tell how the market will react.
Quoting EuroTraderJD
This is the reason why I value your insight. I would have never known that. Great post and I will watch these levels. Please post again as a reminder when/if Ms Market goes there. The words from the "boots on the ground" often have more merit than a talking head in the news.
  • #42,063
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:09am Apr 4, 2013 10:09am
Quoting Robby
I will if I happen to be around the computer. I have the level to be notify by txt/email that is were I have to see how the market is moving when it get their to figure out if I should leave or stay. Were I think the shorts would come in to try and take it down to a lower low. It is getting more and more risk for shorts. This move today has scared some of the shorts away. One can never tell how the market will react.
Beside making money I think that is what thrills me, when you get it just right and you slam pips in your pocket...I guess it is the modern version of "the hunt".
  • #42,064
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:12am Apr 4, 2013 10:12am
Well I do not scalp too hard to get the timing right for me. I can never get in and out correctly. As far as the current position I have. Well I have avg at 1.2771 and I have a stop at 1.2537 so that is about 250 ticks stop loss. I am looking for above 1.36 so that is 800+ ticks that would be 1:3 or so if it works out.
Quoting MeInGraySuit
With your win to loss ratio, what is your risk/reward ratio? As for me I use 15-20% margin (sometimes more) to achieve 5-10%/month. My risk reward is a 1:3 (example stop/loss 20pips, reward 60pips). Except for when I scalp I lower it to a 5% ratio and my risk reward ratio becomes more like a 1:1 (usually I do not have stops on when I scalp)
  • #42,065
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:12am Apr 4, 2013 10:12am
Fed’s Fisher: Japanese easing does not put pressure on the Fed to continue



Fisher is speaking to Bloomberg TV:

 

  1. Says QE won’t go on forever
  2. Kuroda is going to be a good central banker

Wonder if we’ll see Fisher’s tune change if USD/JPY hits 110.00 and US manufacturers start squealing.

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,066
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:13am Apr 4, 2013 10:13am
Growth in peripheral euro countries - Spain, Italy and Greece - is crashing. Draghi admitted weakness is spreading to the core. The ECB's bond-buying pledge (OMT) has helped cap peripheral bond yields, but more needs to be done to help activity. The ECB's refi rate at 0.75% is already low and a cut may not make much difference to real activity, but as a token it might have helped boost confidence. However, for some reason the bank is reluctant. "The discussion was extensive. All in all the consensus was for the time being not to look at rates."
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,067
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:15am Apr 4, 2013 10:15am
Quoting Robby
I will if I happen to be around the computer. I have the level to be notify by txt/email that is were I have to see how the market is moving when it get their to figure out if I should leave or stay. Were I think the shorts would come in to try and take it down to a lower low. It is getting more and more risk for shorts. This move today has scared some of the shorts away. One can never tell how the market will react.
AMEN and thank you.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,068
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:16am Apr 4, 2013 10:16am
Quoting sypherBG
Hey guys i dont remember who here was trading in a pyramid like style but here are my thanks to him THANK YOU DUDE! I tried this this week for number of reasons( Away from PC, trading from phone, and main is that IMO EU is turning bullish but since i'm not sure i'm buying at levels at which i'll normally put SL) and it work just fine for me for now. +60 pips! Still in for my .30 aim. I might TP tommorow before MKT close.
that works well trading from bottoms and or peaks.....so watching the mountains and valleys has some merit LT (LongTerm) or ST (ShortTerm)
  • #42,069
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:16am Apr 4, 2013 10:16am
Quoting Robby
Well I do not scalp too hard to get the timing right for me. I can never get in and out correctly. As far as the current position I have. Well I have avg at 1.2771 and I have a stop at 1.2537 so that is about 250 ticks stop loss. I am looking for above 1.36 so that is 800+ ticks that would be 1:3 or so if it works out.
Good Luck to you...my charts say that we will hit .2500 before we hit .3600. I have my high at maybe .3158 before we crash hard.
  • #42,070
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:19am Apr 4, 2013 10:19am
Quoting TraderPablo
that works well trading from bottoms and or peaks.....so watching the mountains and valleys has some merit LT (LongTerm) or ST (ShortTerm)
BTW the Pyramid info came from EurotraderJD
  • #42,071
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:21am Apr 4, 2013 10:21am
just got back...

So whats new guys?
  • #42,072
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:22am Apr 4, 2013 10:22am
Quoting TraderPablo
BTW the Pyramid info came from EurotraderJD
TY Pablo and many thanks EurotraderJD
Mind you, my first name is Bad. ..."Nunc Id Vides, Nunc Ne Vides"...
  • #42,073
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:24am Apr 4, 2013 10:24am
I do see what you are talking about tho I do not see that happening. PA tell me it will not, especially today. Bad news for the euro and big money is buying the euro. One has to ask why companies buying a falling currency. This is because the companies do not see the weakness they are talking about. So to them they are buying because the ECB has it wrong but the ECB will figure it out later on. So that is why I do not think we will see 1.25. But gov can put out lies and move markets so 1.25 is very possible but if everything remains how it is then we will see above 1.36 before we see 1.25. My opinion
Quoting MeInGraySuit
Good Luck to you...my charts say that we will hit .2500 before we hit .3600. I have my high at maybe .3158 before we crash hard.
  • #42,074
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:26am Apr 4, 2013 10:26am
Quoting Robby
I do see what you are talking about tho I do not see that happening. PA tell me it will not, especially today. Bad news for the euro and big money is buying the euro. One has to ask why companies buying a falling currency. This is because the companies do not see the weakness they are talking about. So to them they are buying because the ECB has it wrong but the ECB will figure it out later on. So that is why I do not think we will see 1.25. But gov can put out lies and move markets so 1.25 is very possible but if everything remains how it is then...
I can see..but not think... that far ahead.....
  • #42,075
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:28am Apr 4, 2013 10:28am
Quoting TraderPablo
BTW the Pyramid info came from EurotraderJD
Free to anyone who will listen with an open mind.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,076
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:28am Apr 4, 2013 10:28am
Quoting Robby
I do see what you are talking about tho I do not see that happening. PA tell me it will not, especially today. Bad news for the euro and big money is buying the euro. One has to ask why companies buying a falling currency. This is because the companies do not see the weakness they are talking about. So to them they are buying because the ECB has it wrong but the ECB will figure it out later on. So that is why I do not think we will see 1.25. But gov can put out lies and move markets so 1.25 is very possible but if everything remains how it is then...
Could be wrong but here is my monthly chart for reference...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: monthly.jpg Size: 332 KB
  • #42,077
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:29am Apr 4, 2013 10:29am
Quoting sypherBG
TY Pablo and many thanks EurotraderJD
You are welcome brother anything I can do to help you make some green pips.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #42,078
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:30am Apr 4, 2013 10:30am
Also I believe equities will take a breather here pretty soon...probably when EU starts tanking.
  • #42,079
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:33am Apr 4, 2013 10:33am
Personally I think you have 1-2-3 up to your blue line then the 1-2-3-4-5 down to the low as you show it...That is what I think. For the following. Econ cycle and banks giving out money in the europe to make it move up. This will only work for a short time then they will haft to pay for that. When they haft to pay we will get the 1-2-3-4-5 down. Right now we are in the 1-2-3 up trying to make it out of the hole they are in. When it's clean they are fxxx and no way out....then we get the 1-2-3-4-5 down. That is how I see it playing out.
Quoting MeInGraySuit
Could be wrong but here is my monthly chart for reference... {image}
  • #42,080
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:33am Apr 4, 2013 10:33am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Free to anyone who will listen with an open mind.
Im going to look into this..I think this has some real validity and I may be able to incorporate this into LT trading..which Im not doing too much of...JD can U tell me in which post u explained the method.thx. tp
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