GAINSY Hottest Forecasts

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Intraday Statement: Sterling Tumbles on Weak Data, Euro Turns Soft
(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

Sterling drops sharply in European session after a string of weak economic data. The PMI manufacturing rose slightly to 48.3 in February but it stayed in contraction region and missed expectation of 48.8. Mortgage approvals decreased more than expected to 57.1k in February comparing to expectation of 53.6k. M3 money...

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(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Wrap-up: USD/JPY – Sell at 94.35

USD's strong recoil after intra-day initial fall to 92.57 suggests a temporary low is formed there and with Tenkan-Sen crossing above the Kijun-Sen, suggesting near term...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2935 or buy at 1.2790

Although euro has retreated after intra-day initial rise to 1.2878, reckon the Ichimoku cloud (now at 1.2801-08) would limit downside and bring another rise, above said...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Wrap-up: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5195

As intra-day decline from 1.5259 has gathered momentum, adding credence to our view that recoil from 1.5092 has ended at 1.5259 and near term downside bias remains for...

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(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Update: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.2790

Despite intra-day decline to 1.2790, as the single currency has recoiled after finding support there, retaining our consolidative view and test of the upper Kumo (now at...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5195

Despite intra-day fall to 1.5076, as cable has recoiled from there, minor consolidation would be seen with mild upside bias for recovery to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5145),...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9530

Although dollar has retreated after intra-day brief rise to 0.9521, below the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9467) is needed to signal an intra-day top is formed and bring...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Daily Statement: USD Firm as Risk Appetite Pushed DOW to Record High
(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

Strong risk sentiments sent DOW to new record high of 14662 overnight and helped dollar strengthened broadly. Main focus will turn to job and services data from US today on whether investors would stay optimistic on US economy. The ADP employment report is expected to show 198k growth in March...

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Euro-Area Inflation Likely To Trail ECB Target Again

Inflation rate in the euro area trailed the European Central Bank's 2 percent target for the second time in more than two years, figures from the European Union's statistics office may show on Wednesday. Economic data out of the 17-country economy is just getting worse apparently as we recently saw...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Euro Decline Slows, But No Sign Of A Sustained Rebound Yet

EUR/USD held above the recent lows, but the topside was capped too, even as European equities had a strong session. Sterling underperformed after a disappointing UK Manufacturing PMI. Today, the focus will turn to the US eco data. Should we question the case for a cyclical recoil of the dollar?...

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png European Stocks Plunges, Central Banks Meeting Eyed

European shares declined in the opening minutes of Wednesday as Italy's political impasse continues to weigh on markets while investors awaits this bank week's policy decisions by central banks followed by U.S. employment data....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png European Inflation Resumes Its Drop Off ECB Target

European inflation resumed its drop below the ECB target in March with the slowdown in economic activities as the 17-nation region heads to another contraction in the first quarter. Today's report showed that CPI estimate, the euro area's main inflation gauge, retreated to 1.6% in the year ending March from...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Ahead Of The Policy Verdicts

The two-day BoJ Policy Board Meeting started in Tokyo overnight, pushing the Japanese equities up by 2.7%. The markets are looking for concrete and sharp policy measures out of the meeting, as the new BoJ Governor Kuroda failed to promote support to encourage the markets so far. Currently, the JPY...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Fundamental Update: Is The Market Too Pessimistic On The BOJ?

The USDJPY trade has stalled in recent bank weeks after it failed to get above the 96.70 highs reached in mid-March. Since then the focus has shifted to the potential for the BOJ to disappoint and for policy action to fail to match the dovish rhetoric from the policy makers and...

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Hi! News checked?

(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png EURO Tight With Options And Central Bank Decisions

Is this the relative calm before a storm? As we descend on this mid-bank week, event risk should begin to heighten while investors ponder over the outcomes of the BoJ, ECB and BoE in the next couple of trading sessions. If that is not enough for them, there is always US...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png ECB Preview: An Instrument for SMEs

We expect the Governing Council to discuss rate cuts once again, as economic indicators have continued to soften and signal that the recession deepened across the euro area in March. The weak economic indicators partly reflect the continued political uncertainty in the euro area. Cold weather and the Chinese New...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Bank of England Preview: New MPC Remit Will Not Change Policy at this Meeting

We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to remain on hold at Thursday's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting (13:00 CET). On an aggregate level, not much has changed in the outlook for the recovery of UK output with little news in the macroeconomic data. The January numbers for industrial activity were...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Bank of Japan Preview: Kuroda Expected to Leave His Mark

Bank of Japan today starts its first monetary meeting headed by the new governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his two new deputy governors Kikuo Iwata and Hiroshi Nakaso. The decision from the meeting is expected to be announced early Thursday morning CET. Recent economic data including industrial production for February and...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Intraday Statement: USD Mildly Lower after ADP Disappointment
(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

USD is slightly weaker in early US session after release of weaker than expected employment data. The ADP report showed 158k growth in private sector jobs in March only, comparing to expectation of 198k. Nonetheless, February's figure was revised up from 198k to 237k, somewhat offsetting the disappointment. But that's...

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(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Wrap-up: USD/JPY – Sell at 93.65

USD's intra-day selloff suggests a retest of this bank week's low at 92.57 would be seen, however, fracture there is needed to confirm recent decline from 95.67 top has...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.2790

Despite intra-day initial fall to 1.2790, as the single currency found good support there and has recoiled, retaining our consolidative view and current breach of the upper...

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Research Note: April ECB Meeting

At 1245 BST/ 0700 ET on Thursday 4th April 2013 the ECB will announce its latest decision on interest rates. The market expects no change in rates and no unconventional policy measures. The main event will likely be ECB President Draghi's press conference at 1330 BST/ 0830 ET, when the...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Dips and ADP Employment Rose in March

The US service sector continued to grow in March, but the pace of growth decelerated as shown by moderation in the ISM non-manufacturing index to 54.4 in the month from 56.0 in February. Markets had expected smaller moderation in the index to 55.5 in March. The moderation in the headline...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5125
(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

Cable's selloff after meeting renewed selling interests at 1.5159 yesterday and the fracture of yesterday's low at 1.5075 confirm recent decline from 1.5280 top has resumed...

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(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Daily Statement: JPY Sharply Lower as BoJ Kuroda Announced Policy Overhaul

The Japanese yen drops sharply today after BoJ governor Kuroda announced a radical overhaul of its policies in his first meeting. BoJ said in the statement that it will "conduct money-market operations so that the monetary base will increase at an annual pace of about 60 trillion yen to 70...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Announces Aggressive Measures To Bolster Inflation

The new BOJ board announced aggressive measures to combat deflation and boost the economy at the April meeting. Policymakers shifted its monetary policy target to the monetary base from the overnight call rate and pledging to double its government bond holdings in 2 years. Nikkei recoiled after the announcement while...

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(GAINSY Elliott Wave Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Elliott Wave Forecast: AUD/USD – Hold long entered at 1.0410

Despite yesterday's rise to 1.0498, current sharp retreat has retained our view that further consolidation would be seen and marginal weakness from here cannot be ruled out, however, still reckon this bank week's low at 1.0386 would limit downside and bring another recoil later. A firm breach of said resistance at...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Elliott Wave Forecast: EUR/JPY – Target met and buy again at 121.00

Although the single currency fell marginally to 119.12 yesterday, current BOJ inspired rally has reinforced our view that decline from 126.03 is the c leg of wave iv (our long position entered at 119.20 met target at 121.20 with 200 points profit) and further consolidation within this potential triangle wave...

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png USD/CHF: Trading Below Its MA's

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9418, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9388. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9500, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9552....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png GBP/USD: BoE Meeting In Spotlight

The pair is expected to find support at 1.5086, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5040. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.5169, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.5206....

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png USD/JPY: BoJ Policy Meeting Awaited

The pair is expected to find support at 92.49, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 92.12. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 93.46, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 94.06....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png EUR/USD: Euro Gained On News Of IMF's Contribution To The Cyprus Bailout, Trading Tad Lower This Morning

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2803, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2758. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2879, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2910....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png AUD/USD: Domestic Data Boosts Aussie

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0448, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0420. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0501, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0526....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png BOJ Kept Rates Steady During Kuroda's First Board Meeting

The new governor of the Bank of Japan, Kuroda, decided today during its first board meeting in the bank to keep the nation's interest rate unchanged for another round to spur the world's third largest economy. The Bank of Japan decided today during its board meeting to keep the nation's...

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Asia Session: Kuroda Delivers The Goods

The greenback is softer today after weaker than expected US economic data while the yen is the strongest performing currency in the G10 before tonight's Bank of Japan policy announcement. US treasury yields and equities are also lower amid a decline in sentiment as labor data disappointed....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png BOE To Hold Monetary Stance Another Month

This month, the Bank of England is expected to leave again both interest rate and asset purchases at 0.50% and 375 billion pounds, where the BOE will probably depend on the FLS program which started to show positive signs on the economy....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png ECB Likely To Embrace Loose Policy Amid Cyprus, Italy Worries

The European Central Bank is set to announce the interest rate decision on Thursday, where traders will be closely anticipating the Governing Council’s latest assessment of the euro amid concerns over the Cypriot deal and Italy’s ongoing political stalemate....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Cyprus Extends Capital Controls For A Week

Cyprus announced on Wednesday it will extend capital controls for another bank week, extending restrictions that were put in place to prevent a bank run when the country decided to impose losses on depositors, according to a central bank official....

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png BoJ Hits The Spot, JPY Soars

The overnight markets witnessed more aggressive than expected easing measures out of the Bank of Japan under its new Governorship. BoJ Policy Board meeting resulted in sharp and concrete policy measures. The board decided to double the JGB and ETF purchases, to increase the holding of JGBs by JPY 50trln...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png BOJ Policy Change Pushes USD/JPY Above 95.00 Mark

Poor US data (ADP, services PMI) caused some profit taking on the recent dollar gains. However, the recoil of EUR/USD was far from impressive. This morning, the yen nosedived as the BOJ changed its policy framework. Later today, the currency markets will look out for the ECB press conference...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Euro Zone Services Sector's Performance Slips In March

Uncertainty is back to dominate the political arena in Europe, with hectic developments in Cyprus and Italy. Markets started Thursday's session with a somewhat fresh economic agenda featuring the services PMI data from the Euro area. Services, the leading sector in the euro zone, showed a widening contraction in in...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Ahead Of BoE And ECB Policy Announcements

The Bank of Japan was seen more aggressive-than-expected overnight under its freshly elected governorship. The meeting resulted in sharp and concrete policy measures. In reaction, JPY slumped against all of its major peers, the Japanese bond yields decreased and the equity markets rallied....

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Japan: Don't Fight Kuroda

The easing measures that BoJ delivered today must be regarded as very aggressive and, even though there were already widespread expectations of substantial easing measures, BoJ without doubt delivered substantially more than expected. The most important message from BoJ today is that the aggressive monetary policy will continue next year,...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png London Session: The UK's Near Miss With A Triple-Dip

The UK's economy may be running on just one cylinder, but the service sector has actually picked up strongly in Q1, making up for weakness in construction and manufacturing. The March service sector PMI was the highlight this morning (apart from the BOJ, of course, more of that later) and...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png BOE Keeps QE On Hold As Policymakers Weigh Inflationary Pressures, Continue To Believe In FLS

The BOE decided to leave its asset purchase program at 375 billion pounds during their meeting today amid inflationary pressures threatening the economy. Policymakers at the BOE kept their monetary stance for another month despite the current grim economic situation as adding to stimulus may trigger more inflationary pressures, while...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Buyer Beware: It's CB-Day and Draghi Has Some Defending To Do

Defending one sucker punch this bank week was never going to do it softer US data yesterday honed in on a weakness in US employment forecasting. This morning it was activity in the Eurozone's private sector falling at a sharper pace last month that has had a few nervous position...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Intraday Statement: Euro Weakens as ECB Draghi Said Policy to Stay Accommodative
(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

Euro weakens in early US session, more notably against dollar and sterling, after ECB left rates unchanged at 0.75% as widely expected. More importantly, president Draghi pledged to keep policy accommodative as long as necessary. Meanwhile, dollar is stuck in tight range after data showed that initial jobless claims jumped...

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