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  • #41,221
  • Apr 1, 2013 10:42am Apr 1, 2013 10:42am
Not only I've missed my predicted bull move, but it caught me off guard, with a short entry -30 pips today. Kinda angry right now! Discipline and confidence ... long analysis at Friday showed me the bulls, but on my phone today it looked soooo short .... (an emoticon that bumps it's head in a wall should go here [])
Mind you, my first name is Bad. ..."Nunc Id Vides, Nunc Ne Vides"...
  • #41,222
  • Apr 1, 2013 10:45am Apr 1, 2013 10:45am
abc of wave 1 counter trend forming...????any ew experts out there? im not ....but will look at waves ...ew and ocean....
  • #41,223
  • Apr 1, 2013 10:54am Apr 1, 2013 10:54am
Quoting sypherBG
Not only I've missed my predicted bull move, but it caught me off guard, with a short entry -30 pips today. Kinda angry right now! Discipline and confidence ... long analysis at Friday showed me the bulls, but on my phone today it looked soooo short .... (an emoticon that bumps it's head in a wall should go here [])
its tough sometimes..just do diligent mm and U will have another opportunity......patience is a golden virtue in this business...something I'm not very good at ..yet ... better but not good.....patience that is...
its so easy to pull the trigger these days...with the all those electronics in place..... hmm it rhymes as well.
  • #41,224
  • Apr 1, 2013 10:58am Apr 1, 2013 10:58am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Might have to wait to re enter long again while price is here. Have existing long @94 and that is within the MM software's Price Saturation zone. Will stand down and wait on Ms Market. MM is #1 everything else is secondary.
no kidding ...always another day with funds...non w/o it..... I clearly remember those days....
  • #41,225
  • Apr 1, 2013 11:17am Apr 1, 2013 11:17am
Hmm...is this the top of this one leg...???
  • #41,226
  • Apr 1, 2013 11:31am Apr 1, 2013 11:31am
Quoting TraderPablo
no kidding ...always another day with funds...non w/o it..... I clearly remember those days....
Me too brother. After blowing up a few accounts and Ms Market demoralized me I finally got it and wrote a program to manage my risk. Its been all green since then (well 9 loses - 6 were laptop touchpad/trading platform issues) and over 1100+ wins since I dont use SL
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #41,227
  • Apr 1, 2013 11:37am Apr 1, 2013 11:37am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Me too brother. After blowing up a few accounts and Ms Market demoralized me I finally got it and wrote a program to manage my risk. Its been all green since then (well 9 loses - 6 were laptop touchpad/trading platform issues) and over 1100+ wins since I dont use SL
If trading without a stop loss, don't you have some sleepless nights when the market moves strongly against you? Or perhaps you hold back some capital to carry on countertrading and perhaps that's how you average out your performance to come through a winner?

I am not criticising you, in fact I'm taking my hat off to you if you can get all those 1100 good sessions sir.
  • #41,228
  • Apr 1, 2013 1:13pm Apr 1, 2013 1:13pm
Quoting Robby
Hmm...is this the top of this one leg...???
Me thinks we have one more leg down to .2840ish and then one more larger push up.
  • #41,229
  • Apr 1, 2013 1:16pm Apr 1, 2013 1:16pm
What your guess on the leg up...were do you think the zone could be / make it too....???

Quoting MeInGraySuit
Me thinks we have one more leg down to .2840ish and then one more larger push up.
  • #41,230
  • Apr 1, 2013 1:21pm Apr 1, 2013 1:21pm
Quoting wiseambition
If trading without a stop loss, don't you have some sleepless nights when the market moves strongly against you? Or perhaps you hold back some capital to carry on countertrading and perhaps that's how you average out your performance to come through a winner? I am not criticising you, in fact I'm taking my hat off to you if you can get all those 1100 good sessions sir.
Sorry wiseambition for the delay. I am working on a database project and didnt refresh the forum window.

No I dont worry. I trade in a pyramid formation for size, and avoid Price Saturation where that is too much size at a certain level of the chart. I also have a circut breaker where if my DD is met I quit trading in that bias.

I also have a sub account where I trade long. I wouldnt consider it hedging as each bias (long and short accounts) have to stand on their own.

I had 25 short positions when E was 1.37 going down to 1.21x with no MC.

I wrote a software program that does my MM. My parameters are based on a 2000 pip range on the LT chart. 1.20 - 1.40

For me I tried for a long time using SL just to have Ms Market vindicate my bias after my SL was hit. It was death by a 1000 SL as I call it. I got very frustrated going over the same old chart ground not seeing my balance go up very much if at all.

Again what I do isnt for everyone. I am not in the market to get rich overnight. My philospy is Its a Walk to Wealth and Not a Race to Riches (ruin).

Think of it as a career. Many traders want to trade full time but dont take that mindset of I am in it for the long haul attitude.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #41,231
  • Apr 1, 2013 1:22pm Apr 1, 2013 1:22pm
Quoting Robby
What your guess on the leg up...were do you think the zone could be / make it too....???
Should at least make it above .2867 the high of today but if we have an extended 3rd wave we could go as high as .2937 if you are a longer term trader.
2937
  • #41,232
  • Apr 1, 2013 1:24pm Apr 1, 2013 1:24pm
I want to see this next leg down come down fast to that 40ish area that will be a good signal to enter long...
  • #41,233
  • Apr 1, 2013 1:27pm Apr 1, 2013 1:27pm
Well I am going to try and trade this cycle bottom on the daily / weekly...and I figure the micro move here going up...would end someone around 1.2950 area so I have a order sitting at 1.2945...I see were you are coming up with 1.2930 area...and I figure their would be alot of people put their stops around 1.2950 trying to short this bottom...and they would run the stops before going down... I have been known to be wrong... time will tell if I am correct or in correct...
  • #41,234
  • Apr 1, 2013 1:32pm Apr 1, 2013 1:32pm
Quoting Robby
Well I am going to try and trade this cycle bottom on the daily / weekly...and I figure the micro move here going up...would end someone around 1.2950 area so I have a order sitting at 1.2945...I see were you are coming up with 1.2930 area...and I figure their would be alot of people put their stops around 1.2950 trying to short this bottom...and they would run the stops before going down... I have been known to be wrong... time will tell if I am correct or in correct...
Do you just like trading longer term, because statistically you can make more money trading more frequently, but you have to sit and look and study charts to get the best entries.
  • #41,235
  • Apr 1, 2013 1:35pm Apr 1, 2013 1:35pm
From 4Cast

18::05 GMT - EUR/USD still retains its intraday gains on the day so faras the S&P retains its losses on the day so far. EUR still looks to be fighting its way back to the 1.2867/87 resistance, but we are not yet convinced that EUR is off to the races higher from here. We would only start to turn more bullish if EUR develops a sustained power break through 1.2887. R.Z

R5: 1.3048 * 25 Mar high
R4: 1.2900 figure
R3: 1.2887 * break level
R2: 1.2867 27 Mar high
R1: 1.2866 hourly high
S1: 1.2800 figure
S2: 1.2780 27 Mar close
S3: 1.2770 hourly low
S4: 1.2750 * 27 Mar low
S5: 1.2660 * 13 Nov low
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #41,236
  • Apr 1, 2013 1:41pm Apr 1, 2013 1:41pm
No I am just not doing anything last week or this week...and I see this setup in the charts...so I am going to try and stay on the long side of this move trying to catch the micro moves... I haven't done anything with fx in almost 9 months...until last few week or so..use to trade fx all the time daily in the markets from 1995 to 2005... then just when I see setups...I will go look at it... but the answer to your question no I do not sit and look at charts all day every day... my entry I try to get with in 150 ticks of the top or bottom...normally I am under 300 ticks from the top / bottom....and I use sub min charts to enter the market's and multi hour charts to see if their is a possible setup getting ready. One I see the setup on the weekly / daily then I just look at multi hour so long as it is above / below my line on the daily / weekly...and set zones on multi hour of possible areas to get notify by sms...then when I get notify then I go look at sub hour charts to enter the market...basically what I do....

Quoting MeInGraySuit
Do you just like trading longer term, because statistically you can make more money trading more frequently, but you have to sit and look and study charts to get the best entries.
  • #41,237
  • Apr 1, 2013 1:48pm Apr 1, 2013 1:48pm
Quoting Robby
No I am just not doing anything last week or this week...and I see this setup in the charts...so I am going to try and stay on the long side of this move trying to catch the micro moves... I haven't done anything with fx in almost 9 months...until last few week or so..use to trade fx all the time daily in the markets from 1995 to 2005... then just when I see setups...I will go look at it... but the answer to your question no I do not sit and look at charts all day every day... my entry I try to get with in 150 ticks of the top or bottom...normally...
Yes we have to make it work with the lifestyle we want to live, good luck my friend stay green.
  • #41,238
  • Apr 1, 2013 1:49pm Apr 1, 2013 1:49pm
Good movement down but I want to wait one more 15 min bar before pulling trigger, that hanging man bar tells me we might go down just a little further.
  • #41,239
  • Apr 1, 2013 1:51pm Apr 1, 2013 1:51pm
Agree with you...sub hour are breaking down...

Quoting MeInGraySuit
Good movement down but I want to wait one more 15 min bar before pulling trigger, that hanging man bar tells me we might go down just a little further.
  • #41,240
  • Apr 1, 2013 1:56pm Apr 1, 2013 1:56pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Sorry wiseambition for the delay. I am working on a database project and didnt refresh the forum window. No I dont worry. I trade in a pyramid formation for size, and avoid Price Saturation where that is too much size at a certain level of the chart. I also have a circut breaker where if my DD is met I quit trading in that bias. I also have a sub account where I trade long. I wouldnt consider it hedging as each bias (long and short accounts) have to stand on their own. I had 25 short positions when E was 1.37 going down to 1.21x with no MC. I wrote...
Thank you for such a comprehensive response
Clearly you've got something there which works for you and that's what matters, to give steady long term performance

I tend to trade intraday, and have a system which usually gives a profit factor in region of 3. The guy who headed up the strategy only trades to 1 pc risk, but I really think a profit factor of this justifies a bit more risk exposure, for which it is capable of delivering good returns. Maybe EURUSD is not the best pair to work with, people who can cope with a more volatile experience might now be concentrating on EURJPN but that of course can give a very bumpy ride

Hope for a good week once normal conditions resume!
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