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  • #23,841
  • Mar 31, 2013 10:38am Mar 31, 2013 10:38am
Quoting SimpleDev
The volume on 3/25 was supporting volume, buying came in only to support the market. To keep the market from going into a panic sell and dropping uncontrollably.

If you can afford to join the VSA club, I think you can contact them and request to pay per month instead of paying for a full year in advance, join them and download all of Tom's webinars and watch them as much as you can. Sierra is about $20 a month, so much better than MT4.
Thank you SimpleDev for your excellent explanation. I appreciate that. I will check with VSA Club if they have any monthly pack available.
  • #23,842
  • Mar 31, 2013 10:46am Mar 31, 2013 10:46am
Quoting SimpleDev
Recap from yesterday, keep in mind that I am not interested unless there is massive volume involved. Massive volume is definitive and will give you the safer entries, since there wasn't any massive volume until London and I don't trade US session there was no setup for me. First chart is a 1h, notice how the volume on the dip was low. Low suggesting the market was not interested in the downside. Second chart is a 15m, the bar I marked to the left was in Asia, this bar shows you how Asia reacted to what happened in US. Asia saw the low volume and...
Beautiful example SimpleDev. A simple question though. After you have seen that in US session there wasnt any sellers followed by Asia Magenta bar which shows some buying, where would you initiate your buying position? You dont know whether wide spread down bar on high volume would come in London or not. Infact after that Magenta bar price rose a bit, some selling came and then market bounced back up. So my question is where to initiate the long position after Magenta buy bar in Asia session? and where would you keep your SL?

Thanks once again for your guidance.
  • #23,843
  • Mar 31, 2013 10:57am Mar 31, 2013 10:57am
is there an opposite of a Terminal shakeout, something like a Terminal trap-up?

TY
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #23,844
  • Mar 31, 2013 11:08am Mar 31, 2013 11:08am
Can someone please review this chart & let me know your views on it? This is an hourly chart...I have marked my understanding on it. Please let me know if Im thinking right.
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  • #23,845
  • Mar 31, 2013 10:04pm Mar 31, 2013 10:04pm
Quoting abhinkoi
Beautiful example SimpleDev. A simple question though. After you have seen that in US session there wasnt any sellers followed by Asia Magenta bar which shows some buying, where would you initiate your buying position? You dont know whether wide spread down bar on high volume would come in London or not. Infact after that Magenta bar price rose a bit, some selling came and then market bounced back up. So my question is where to initiate the long position after Magenta buy bar in Asia session? and where would you keep your SL? Thanks once again for...
My whole intraday strategy is built around massive volume. So in the previous US session, there was no massive volume only a lack of volume, and in Asia with the magenta volume bar, I would only consider that barely high volume. In fact if better volume would not have colored that volume bar I would not have noticed it.

So even though I had a good idea that both the US session and Asia session were bullish, it still did not meet my requirement to trade because I want massive volume. That was the purpose of the opening line of that post.

Quoting SimpleDev
Recap from yesterday, keep in mind that I am not interested unless there is massive volume involved. Massive volume is definitive and will give you the safer entries, since there wasn't any massive volume until London and I don't trade US session there was no setup for me.
If I did trade US session, once I saw the massive volume in London, I would have been looking for any reason to buy it and would have bought the test I marked in green on the chart in that post.
  • #23,846
  • Mar 31, 2013 10:20pm Mar 31, 2013 10:20pm
So here is Friday, Friday was everything that I look for to trade intraday, the only problem was that Friday was an EU holiday so I stayed out.

From left to right
Looking at US session we see nice high volume on an up bar showing us signs of weakness.

Asia.. to me these two bars are massive. Nice volume and spreads to match. The way I see it, is if I showed this chart to someone who has never seen a chart before and ask them whats sticks out the most. I would imagine that the person would point out these two bars.. that to me is massive.

Pretty much I would be looking for any excuse to sell, which we did get a drop, not much of one, maybe due to the holiday.
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  • #23,847
  • Mar 31, 2013 10:48pm Mar 31, 2013 10:48pm
Quoting abhinkoi
Can someone please review this chart & let me know your views on it? This is an hourly chart...I have marked my understanding on it. Please let me know if Im thinking right. {image}
I would say check that climatic volume against another broker. It seems too climatic.. And honestly if it volume is correct, I would have expected the next bar to be up. But to its credit the next bar is a very narrow down bar with the next bar after it as up.

The ND that you marked the high was just under the close of the climatic volume bar, which to me I think says that the market went and tested the climatic volume. If the market tested the climatic volume and dropped, it seems more weak that strong to me.

The bottom of the chart does seem like buying is coming in so there could be a rally. I would say be careful with this one. And think of it this way, if the climatic bar is bullish then we can expect price to rise above the high of this bar which is 5880. So be patient and wait for a higher high and a higher low on very low volume.
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  • #23,848
  • Apr 1, 2013 2:03am Apr 1, 2013 2:03am
Quoting SimpleDev
I would say check that climatic volume against another broker. It seems too climatic.. And honestly if it volume is correct, I would have expected the next bar to be up. But to its credit the next bar is a very narrow down bar with the next bar after it as up. The ND that you marked the high was just under the close of the climatic volume bar, which to me I think says that the market went and tested the climatic volume. If the market tested the climatic volume and dropped, it seems more weak that strong to me. The bottom of the chart does seem like...
Thanks SimpleDev for your detailed analysis. I checked the volume with another very reliable broker & there the volume is even higher (although marginally). My chart shows climatic volume as 91,72,200 vs 93,37,546 with another broker.

One more thing I wanted to bring to your notice which I forgot to add earlier is that 28th March was expiry day for the last month settlement. So the buying volume which we are seeing on this chart may be due to the fact that people have transferred their positions from March to April in derivatives.

I am attaching the latest chart for your reference. Basically it is a chart of Indian market Index called NIFTY. and its a NIFTY future chart of April contract.
Market opened higher, broke previous swing high but volume is decreasing on each bar and its slipping once again.

Thoughts?
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  • #23,849
  • Apr 1, 2013 3:00am Apr 1, 2013 3:00am
Quoting abhinkoi
Thanks SimpleDev for your detailed analysis. I checked the volume with another very reliable broker & there the volume is even higher (although marginally). My chart shows climatic volume as 91,72,200 vs 93,37,546 with another broker. One more thing I wanted to bring to your notice which I forgot to add earlier is that 28th March was expiry day for the last month settlement. So the buying volume which we are seeing on this chart may be due to the fact that people have transferred their positions from March to April in derivatives. I am attaching...
That makes sense the contracts rolled over..

There isn't really much strength here. That up move was hit with a surge in volume and the next bar failed to close above the low of the high volume bar. Don't fight the trend on this one.
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  • #23,850
  • Apr 1, 2013 3:24am Apr 1, 2013 3:24am
Quoting HiddenGap
Just a chart dump. {image}


does this hidden gap acts as support/resistance?

TY
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #23,851
  • Apr 1, 2013 3:38am Apr 1, 2013 3:38am
The day is not over yet, but I wanted to show this great entry. Especially since I jumped the gun.

First we want to think about something Sam Seiden always says, "Know who is on the other side of your trade".

Who we want to be on the other side of our trades is the consistent (usually retail) losing trader. There are two things that the consistent losing trader does:
1. Sell after a fall in price
2. Sell into an area where the market has already exhibited an abundance of Demand.
Okay, take a look at the first chart below.

After a fall in price, price enters a Supply/Demand Delta Zone. The first thing we want to look for is "start point". A start point is basically an Ultra High volume interval that represent the start of the accumulation phase. Lauren S called this the "Skyscraper volume" interval.

A. A Wide spread down bar that closes well of its lows on volume that is clearly climatic. There must be some buying in this bar as the close is off the lows and the next interval (B) is up.

B. This is an up interval that confirms the strength in interval (A). I got a little trigger happy and entered here. This however, is not the high probability entry we seek.

C. After an interval that looks like No Demand, we get a wide spread down bar that again closes off its lows. But take a look at the volume. The volume has increased but it is not nearly as much as we saw on bar (A). But this interval is making a lower low. So we are making lower lows on decreasing volume.

D. This is an interesting interval. We first note that the volume is increasing as the range decreases. This means the interval is a down squat. We also note that the close is in the middle of the range. This looks like a test, with increasing volume.

E. B-I-N-G-O. We see a narrow range (although greater than the previous) interval that makes a lower low, closes on its high and has volume less than the previous two intervals. This is a Test. The volume is less than the previous two and less than average. This is our high probability entry signal.

I had to sit through a little bit of heat. But there have been no closes below the zone, so I feel pretty good. And once I saw this test, I feelt almost golden.

Chart 2 shows the exit.

Chart 3 shows the trade. Note there was a previous loss. So two trades taken one win and one loss.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,852
  • Apr 1, 2013 3:42am Apr 1, 2013 3:42am
Quoting abhinkoi
Can someone please review this chart & let me know your views on it? This is an hourly chart...I have marked my understanding on it. Please let me know if Im thinking right. {image}
If you allow me, I would like to point that the bar you mark with "buying coming in" is actually, in my view, supply coming in.
The reason is that it was an up bar, with wide spread.
The next 2 bars confirm is had more supply that buying.

As a rule of thumb, up bars with high volume show supply coming in and down bars with high volume, shows buying coming in.
The exceptions are when these bars are trying to break out on old levels of resistance or support, the so called "absorption volume".

Cheers!
  • #23,853
  • Apr 1, 2013 3:53am Apr 1, 2013 3:53am
Quoting HiddenGap
The day is not over yet, but I wanted to show this great entry. Especially since I jumped the gun. First we want to think about something Sam Seiden always says, "Know who is on the other side of your trade". Who we want to be on the other side of our trades is the consistent (usually retail) losing trader. There are two things that the consistent losing trader does: 1. Sell after a fall in price 2. Sell into an area where the market has already exhibited an abundance of Demand. Okay, take a look at the first chart below. After a fall in price,...
Very nice! Congrats on this one!
Just a question. What is the time frame in the charts?

One of my favorites PA bar is what you call squat. A down/up bar with narrow range and the volume greater than the volume of few bars to the left. Mainly if it is after climactic action. Better yet if we already have a SO/UT before it!

I jumped in a long on euro today but I think was a mistake. The price was horrible(a clear chasing!), after London opened. And worst, I forgot today is holiday in Europe so, no volume.... Shame on me!
The trade is still open but think it will be a loser one... I am sticking to it now because EG is showing some wishing to go up. But after all, a bad trade.

Cheers!
  • #23,854
  • Apr 1, 2013 5:51am Apr 1, 2013 5:51am
Great Work............
Quoting HiddenGap
The day is not over yet, but I wanted to show this great entry. Especially since I jumped the gun. First we want to think about something Sam Seiden always says, "Know who is on the other side of your trade". Who we want to be on the other side of our trades is the consistent (usually retail) losing trader. There are two things that the consistent losing trader does: 1. Sell after a fall in price 2. Sell into an area where the market has already exhibited an abundance of Demand. Okay, take a look at the first chart below. After a fall in price,...
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
  • #23,855
  • Apr 1, 2013 6:06am Apr 1, 2013 6:06am
Quoting joaoborras
Very nice! Congrats on this one! Just a question. What is the time frame in the charts? One of my favorites PA bar is what you call squat. A down/up bar with narrow range and the volume greater than the volume of few bars to the left. Mainly if it is after climactic action. Better yet if we already have a SO/UT before it! I jumped in a long on euro today but I think was a mistake. The price was horrible(a clear chasing!), after London opened. And worst, I forgot today is holiday in Europe so, no volume.... Shame on me! The trade is still open but...
Just an update.
I closed at BE but the price moved indeed.... againg, shame on me, twice!
  • #23,856
  • Apr 1, 2013 8:14am Apr 1, 2013 8:14am
Quoting SimpleDev
That makes sense the contracts rolled over.. There isn't really much strength here. That up move was hit with a surge in volume and the next bar failed to close above the low of the high volume bar. Don't fight the trend on this one. {image}
Thanks SimpleDev. You are right. Today entire day it tried to break & go above the low of that climatic vol bar but failed. Here is the updated end of the day hourly bar. Thanks again for your help.
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  • #23,857
  • Apr 1, 2013 8:15am Apr 1, 2013 8:15am
Quoting joaoborras
If you allow me, I would like to point that the bar you mark with "buying coming in" is actually, in my view, supply coming in. The reason is that it was an up bar, with wide spread. The next 2 bars confirm is had more supply that buying. As a rule of thumb, up bars with high volume show supply coming in and down bars with high volume, shows buying coming in. The exceptions are when these bars are trying to break out on old levels of resistance or support, the so called "absorption volume". Cheers!
Thanks Joa. Yes that perfectly makes sense. thanks much for your inputs.
  • #23,858
  • Apr 2, 2013 12:11am Apr 2, 2013 12:11am
Quoting HiddenGap
The day is not over yet, but I wanted to show this great entry.
VSA at its finest. Well played

Quoting joaoborras
If you allow me, I would like to point that the bar you mark with "buying coming in" is actually, in my view, supply coming in. The reason is that it was an up bar, with wide spread. The next 2 bars confirm is had more supply that buying. As a rule of thumb, up bars with high volume show supply coming in and down bars with high volume, shows buying coming in. The exceptions are when these bars are trying to break out on old levels of resistance or support, the so called "absorption volume". Cheers!
Good catch!
  • #23,859
  • Apr 2, 2013 11:29pm Apr 2, 2013 11:29pm
For those who know me, know that I am a sucker for the forum games.

So here we go..

8h chart of AJ. Edit my chart and tell everyone what you see!
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  • #23,860
  • Apr 3, 2013 12:01am Apr 3, 2013 12:01am
Quoting SimpleDev
For those who know me, know that I am a sucker for the forum games. So here we go.. 8h chart of AJ. Edit my chart and tell everyone what you see! {image}
Let me play! :-)
Here is my annotated charts with comments:

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Cheers!
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