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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #39,481
  • Mar 29, 2013 5:24pm Mar 29, 2013 5:24pm
Hello all

I have only just discovered this thread & indeed the site from where it originates and would like to thank the apparent master "fti", for the wise counsel which began this thread so many years ago and also the many experienced & wise members that have contributed thus far.

If I may quote some of the passages from fti's originating thread, which have a refreshingly different tone to so many found elsewhere on the net...

Quote
fti
Apologies
-no mentor, or course, or literature can give anyone the Holy Grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets.
-"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose"
Today, we find lots of originally and mutated techniques and methodologies available to the Chartist or Technicians.
What many fail to realise, is that all these studies, basically are statistical tables plotted in graphic form to present a "picture" to assist traders in their decision process. The...

I would like to add that it is my belief that last line is alluding to the fact that success in the markets can be attributed to treating Forex trading more as an art form & less as a science. In fact, throw in discipline, focus, practice and a host of other virtues and Forex Trading is beginning to look like a philosophy!

I love how this thread likens the trader to a Zen warrior going in to battle the almighty Forex beast. It's as if I/we the warrior/s, wear a coat of coins (personal currency) and attack the giant serpent (Forex) with our swords (MT4 Platform) hoping to dislodge a few golden scales from it's hide. Since it is the Year of The Snake, I would like to further this analogy and suggest that one can view the charts as a trace of where the serpent is heading as it follows the scent of the money. Stop losses seem to leave a faint signal from the unwary, as more often than not, the serpent swings it's head to & fro, gobbling up the many who have positioned themselves too close to the point of articulation.(pivot point,neck of the beast)
Yes I too, have become aware that it pays to remain astute but emotionless, when making a strike.

To our good fortune.
Adieu.
  • #39,482
  • Mar 29, 2013 7:01pm Mar 29, 2013 7:01pm
Quoting Gro
hi,

you have three horses and enemy have three horses - weak horse, moderately strong horse and
strong horse.
how do you always win?
answer is for you

rgs

hi Gro.

Insightful question, thanks.


Regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,483
  • Mar 29, 2013 7:40pm Mar 29, 2013 7:40pm
Quoting frz
hi Gro.

Insightful question, thanks.


Regards
sorry,
how will you allways winner ...
explanation you post Sun Zi Bing Fa (aow)
rgs
  • #39,484
  • Edited 10:42pm Mar 29, 2013 8:08pm | Edited 10:42pm
Quoting Gro
sorry,
how will you allways winner ...
explanation you post Sun Zi Bing Fa (aow)
rgs

when we are not superior about number, then we must have superior strategy.

Hence that general is skillful in attack whose opponent does not know what to defend; and he is skillful in defense whose opponent does not know what to attack.
learn the principle of his activity or inactivity.
Force him to reveal himself, so as to find out his vulnerable spots.

Disciplined and calm, to await the appearance of disorder and hubbub amongst the enemy:
He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared.

Knowing when to fight and when not to fight;
There are paths that he must not travel.
There are armies, which he should not attack.
There are fortified cities, which he should not besiege.
There are territories the he should not contest.

Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground over which it flows;
the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he is facing

To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands,
but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

If you know the enemy and know yourself,
you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.
If you know yourself but not the enemy,
for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.
If you know neither the enemy nor yourself,
you will succumb in every battle.

all can be concluded:
knowing power and limitations of market as well as knowing power and limitations of self..
readjust and change MO which is suitable with battle conditions.


Rgs



PS: i just realized, i have never meet any lesson about mindset as strong as
Art of War (sun zi bing fa) and Go rin no sho (mijamoto musashi).

it's make trader take care his trade as well as his life and death.
steady as she goes
  • #39,485
  • Mar 30, 2013 2:32am Mar 30, 2013 2:32am
Strong vs medium. Medium vs weak. Weak vs strong!
  • #39,486
  • Mar 30, 2013 3:40am Mar 30, 2013 3:40am
Quoting kinky
Strong vs medium. Medium vs weak. Weak vs strong!
briliant answer!

i have guessed mistakenly. why i don't get the point of Gro's question.
ah, i must be so dumb.


Regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,487
  • Mar 30, 2013 4:28am Mar 30, 2013 4:28am
Hi frz


it takes a while to get your head around this and it is a constant learning curve for everyone.


money is just another tool (your product that you want to sell) as are your employees (your trades) and any loans (underwater trades) would be in any business, use them properly (keep the best and cut the weak and burdening) and you make money/progress, let things slack and make decisions without really considering the outcome/s (gambling) at the expense of your business....assets and liabilities are a constantly changing balancing/managing act for the survival and progress of any business.

Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #39,488
  • Edited 6:35am Mar 30, 2013 5:17am | Edited 6:35am
Quoting phil13
Hi frz


it takes a while to get your head around this and it is a constant learning curve for everyone.


money is just another tool (your product that you want to sell) as are your employees (your trades) and any loans (underwater trades) would be in any business, use them properly (keep the best and cut the weak and burdening) and you make money/progress, let things slack and make decisions without really considering the outcome/s (gambling) at the expense of your business....assets and liabilities are a constantly changing balancing/managing...


thanks Phil.
much grateful for your concern.

definitely, it's constant learning curve for everyone..
that's why i guess everyone is reread thread on the weekend. hehe.

yes, any loans (underwater) will burdening my bussiness (trade) for indefinite time and cost.
it will be more difficult if i don't have any good resolution in the short time.

and because i don't have any experience of this (defending deep underwater) before,
i take this chance to learn the lesson what's market give.
i have opportunity to learn it in my small equity
(even it's a significant portion of my entire capital in trading bussiness)

so i would know, what should i do first if i meet this condition again in the future.
besides, i want to measure myself.
how long i can sustain the right mindset.
how good i'm in the burdened situation.
how much my chance to make it better.

after all, if the situation gets worst.
i have nothing to lose at all, it's still on the scope of my treshold pain.
i still have chance to trade with the remaining equity and i get valuable experience.
i think it's a good trade


Regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,489
  • Mar 30, 2013 10:13am Mar 30, 2013 10:13am
great that some really understands. aow


regards


Inserted Video
  • #39,490
  • Edited 3:06am Mar 31, 2013 2:54am | Edited 3:06am
ok for those who had journeyed with me a long way.
1 important thing i must highlight to you. something at advance levels.
humans are an emotional animal.
we behave in respond to our emotions.
this 1 very big scorpion.

we have in our mind.
what is call muscle memory.
Mostly strategic capacity comes from your ability to recall.
Thats why kim's game is important to master.

Our respond to situations is a collective summary of our ability recall memory and recognition of situations.
this about YOU.
your memory of stuff, is pegged in your mind to events and emotions.
This the reason why i listen to some songs again and again during certain recognised situations.
the purpose is to shieeve thru the mind for learned and pegged memory to control respond and certain scorpions.
You will peg memory to all 5 senses.
for trading is easiest peg to sound. This because sight and feel is very engaged on the now analysis. Taste,smell will have fade effects.
so the mest medium for long term pegs is sound. Sound engages all senses with a strongest pegging direct to the bicameral mind.
if you not want to train that, there is likely hood for you reverting to your old habits, when you forget your training.
repetition of a certain practises creates in mind pegged memory.
This the reson why sometimes you cannot understand why you do what you do.
If i slap you , you will retaliate by reflex punch, right?
This because the response is pegged in your mind, and you have tendency to respond as per recall capabilityies.
Thats why training good habits is important to override bad training.

Change of linguistic skills and trading skills and sound pegged memory can affect respond to market.
So becareful of environmental impact on memory pegging.
What you not rememeber auto, you not respond to. Mostly realise it only after the event.

Thats it.
now i just trrigered a memory repond in me, need smoke.


regards.

Those that changing languages, like what panda is doing , they trying reprogram the young minds. aka brain washing.
  • #39,491
  • Edited 3:38am Mar 31, 2013 3:26am | Edited 3:38am
Quoting fti
ok for those who had journeyed with me a long way. 1 important thing i must highlight to you. something at advance levels. humans are an emotional animal. we behave in respond to our emotions. this 1 very big scorpion. we have in our mind. what is call muscle memory. Mostly strategic capacity comes from your ability to recall. Thats why kim's game is important to master. Our respond to situations is a collective summary of our ability recall memory and recognition of situations. this about YOU. your memory of stuff, is pegged in your mind to events...
sound from words can trigger all sorts emotions.
Thats why they hijacked the word gay.
They want you have happy emotions while they screw you where you shit.

No believe me.
Just listen some advertisements, they trying some chemical emotions in you.

If i told you there was a ghost sitting beside you when you trade, I bet you behave differently in your trades.
for me has good impact, have holy ghost sit beside me when i trade.

If i keep saying up when you trading , i bet you r trriger finger slows, may miss the selling totally. This the reason why i use certain words if i want stir a dealers mind. you will find word repeated.

regards
  • #39,492
  • Mar 31, 2013 4:22am Mar 31, 2013 4:22am
Quoting fti
Apologies -no mentor, or course, or literiture can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets. -"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose" Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt.
I totally agree with you. The goose exist but so difficult to find, A trader need to be a genius to figure it out. And only very few know about it.
  • #39,493
  • Mar 31, 2013 7:52am Mar 31, 2013 7:52am
easter again.
and we get see the new pope Francis, calls for peace.
Good people's man, and the world continues.

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/03/31/wo...ter/index.html

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/03/14/wo...rticle_sidebar
regards
  • #39,494
  • Mar 31, 2013 8:00am Mar 31, 2013 8:00am
Quoting fti
easter again. and we get see the new pope Francis, calls for peace. Good people's man, and the world continues. http://edition.cnn.com/2013/03/31/wo...ter/index.html http://edition.cnn.com/2013/03/14/wo...rticle_sidebar regards
and i am still around.
Too many false alarms.

regards

Inserted Video
  • #39,495
  • Mar 31, 2013 8:16am Mar 31, 2013 8:16am
Quoting fti
ok for those who had journeyed with me a long way. 1 important thing i must highlight to you. something at advance levels. humans are an emotional animal. we behave in respond to our emotions. this 1 very big scorpion. we have in our mind. what is call muscle memory. Mostly strategic capacity comes from your ability to recall. Thats why kim's game is important to master. Our respond to situations is a collective summary of our ability recall memory and recognition of situations. this about YOU. your memory of stuff, is pegged in your mind to events...

AHA!!! another lightbulb moment... thanks chief and HAPPY EASTER
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #39,496
  • Edited 9:05am Mar 31, 2013 8:24am | Edited 9:05am
Quoting dongsky
AHA!!! : dancing: another lightbulb moment... thanks chief and HAPPY EASTER

how's the going.
helping lots charitys?

had always been telling.
It has to become YOU.
then YOU becomes the real deal.
it has to become YOU , then the real you surfaces.

I think i will have a beer today. ooops, fermented barley water. Just 1 small one.
Dad reminded me.
Is a long long waiting.: )
bad mindset. big mistake.
Believed what they put in my mind.
One day will be correct. Just not yet.


regards
  • #39,497
  • Mar 31, 2013 9:38am Mar 31, 2013 9:38am
Quoting fti
ok for those who had journeyed with me a long way. 1 important thing i must highlight to you. something at advance levels. humans are an emotional animal. we behave in respond to our emotions. this 1 very big scorpion. we have in our mind. what is call muscle memory. Mostly strategic capacity comes from your ability to recall. Thats why kim's game is important to master. Our respond to situations is a collective summary of our ability recall memory and recognition of situations. this about YOU. your memory of stuff, is pegged in your mind to events...

Great lesson. Much like what is taught in sports. Reflex action and muscle memory.

See a curve ball 1000 times and hit it with the same swing mechanics 1000 times, on 10001 you just react.

Then comes egor.

Back to the start again. Refresh and retrain.

Was the same when I roped, get in a slump and just go back to basics and all would work out.

Enjoy that cold one Fti!
  • #39,498
  • Mar 31, 2013 11:11am Mar 31, 2013 11:11am
Quoting tubguy
Great lesson. Much like what is taught in sports. Reflex action and muscle memory. See a curve ball 1000 times and hit it with the same swing mechanics 1000 times, on 10001 you just react. Then comes egor. Back to the start again. Refresh and retrain. Was the same when I roped, get in a slump and just go back to basics and all would work out. Enjoy that cold one Fti!
cheers my friend .
wow cool long gulps.
You know mike, i don't know how.
but i have become so dang weak.
even dad not want speak to me, the golden spoon fed kids.

Those that passed before us. they fight, one step at a time.
even i know it. can't know what's ahead. 1 step at a time.
but here i am sitting waiting to expire.
what a weak spirit.
peeps fight till their last breath, then is time.
here i wait because some one told me, "prepare you not going to make it."
and i buy in hook line and sinker.
talk about weak mindset.

They all lie there, silent and resting, because they not breathing no more.
Here i am still breathing, althought much weaker physically, but is no excuse still like this and wait.
what a sick brain.
when i should be pushing the limits, 1 step , 1 step.
instead i sit like a weak ass for years already.
whats there to fear?
only fear itself.
so if it comes it comes, until then i must get on.
be the best i can be, everyday.
This not the best i can be.
I am deceived that i am pushing my best when i still can move. breath.

I got to get out of this mindset. get on and on.
so what my sight impaired.so what i cannot stress. moves slow.
but i still can move.
all crazy cranky self deception.
I can , and i will move on and on until it comes , then i rest , like all of them.

I am not only one dying, everyone is.
so what so dang special about me.
only weak mindset. I got to get out of the land of the dying and start living.
If it kills me, so it kills me, big deal.

nEXT TIME I WILLOW IN SELF PITY , WILL SOMEONE PLEASE KICK MY ASS TO MOVE AHEAD AGAIN.
tHIS NOT THE RIGHT WAY TO DIE. AND IS THE WORST WAY TO LIVE. THIS NOT LIVING.

my friends. Ai ya how did i become like this.

regards
  • #39,499
  • Mar 31, 2013 11:41am Mar 31, 2013 11:41am
Quoting fti
cheers my friend . wow cool long gulps. You know mike, i don't know how. but i have become so dang weak. even dad not want speak to me, the golden spoon fed kids. Those that passed before us. they fight, one step at a time. even i know it. can't know what's ahead. 1 step at a time. but here i am sitting waiting to expire. what a weak spirit. peeps fight till their last breath, then is time. here i wait because some one told me, "prepare you not going to make it." and i buy in hook line and sinker. talk about weak mindset. They all lie there,...
Hi FTI,

That's the spirit. Come out fighting again. You're not dead until they bury you 6' underground. "The worst thing you can do is sitting at home and waiting for death." quote from a selfhelp book. Your body can be dead, but is your mind dead? If so, if you have one good finger, you could still trade. I just met an old accountant who almost died of heart attack twice after he retired. When his children went to see him in hospital, they told him never to stop work again. He is our accountant today, and living a productive life.



regards,

zz
  • #39,500
  • Mar 31, 2013 11:43am Mar 31, 2013 11:43am
Quoting fti
cheers my friend . wow cool long gulps. You know mike, i don't know how. but i have become so dang weak. even dad not want speak to me, the golden spoon fed kids. Those that passed before us. they fight, one step at a time. even i know it. can't know what's ahead. 1 step at a time. but here i am sitting waiting to expire. what a weak spirit. peeps fight till their last breath, then is time. here i wait because some one told me, "prepare you not going to make it." and i buy in hook line and sinker. talk about weak mindset. They all lie there,...
We all let egor in at times my friend. (where is Leigh's whip?)

Looks like your mindset is coming around already! Sounds like the right attitude to me. I should probly get a bit more of that attitude myself.

Just keep on keepin on! Egor can't win unless you let him.

Now go have another beer and a smoke and tell egor to kick rocks!

My dad is 72. Smokes like a train and drinks 4-5 beers every day. I tell him all the time, "just do what you enjoy. Any damage is already done"
He just keeps going. I know his health isn't great but he doesn't let it bother him. Still tries to do everything for everyone. Hope I am half the man he is when I am his age.

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