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VantagePoint discussion thread

  • #561
  • Jun 11, 2006 2:08am Jun 11, 2006 2:08am
Hi, I just want to clarify for people exactly what the Neural Index is predicting. First, right from the Vantage Point Disclaimer:


"THE NEURAL INDEX PREDICTS WHETHER THE AVERAGE OF TOMORROW'S CLOSE AND THE CLOSE OF THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW (BOTH UNKNOWNS AT THIS TIME) WILL BE HIGHER OR LOWER THAN THE AVERAGE OF YESTERDAY'S CLOSE AND THE CLOSE OF THE DAY BEFORE YESTERDAY."

So, what this is saying is that if the Neural Index today for a market is 1. And the close of yesterday was 1.2039, and the close the day before yesterday was 1.1987. Then the average of the next 2 day's closes will most likely be greater than the average of (1.2039 + 1.1987)/2 = 1.2013.

So if the neural index is 1, then most likely (Tomorrow's close + The day after Tomorrow's close)/2 > (Yesterday's close + The day before yesterday's close)/2. And if the neural index is 0, then most likely (Tomorrow's close + The day after Tomorrow's close)/2 < (Yesterday's close + The day before yesterday's close)/2.

I'm trying to come up with a good way to use this information to predict a strong trend direction on a given day. If the Index is 1, it doesn't mean that the market price will increase over the next 2 days, it just means there is a high probability that closes of the next 2 days will average out greater than the average of the closes of the 2 days before the neural index was given. I hope this clarifies what the Neural Index is predicting for people.
Making my living one pip at a time.....
  • #562
  • Jun 12, 2006 5:47am Jun 12, 2006 5:47am
Quoting Trinity
jansher21

The predicted 5 day MA is for 2 days in the future. The predicted 10 day MA is for 4 days in the future. They are accompanied by the PST and PMT, respectively.

The prediction is for a "tendency" and the accuracy appears high. Several reviews (website) and FT in this forum site attest to this. I prefer to use the 10 day predicted MA and PMT and the approach I have already indicated. As nothing is perfect you can get burnt if your open trade risk is too high.

You may have wide swings, apart from the exceptional circumstance of a very strong trend over several days, and from the effect of news releases -- but I gather that you are already familiar with this.

Regardless of enthusiastic comments on occasion, there is not an alpha and omega system of trading so far as I can see, but VP is, I think worthwhile at the special prices.

I have not traded VP long enough to be able to attest to an accuracy for the tendency which would involve many different factors also, including length of tendency and swings within and personal factors in trading it.

Trinity
Thanks for this Trinity, and all others who have replied to my posting - much appreciated.

Perhaps I can risk a summary and suggest that the consensus is that predictions are reasonably accurate, but the trading methodology is the tricky part.

If the "prediction" element of their claim is correct, I am reasonably certain we can prepare the rudiments of a trading strategy.

The VP website also suggests that you can get "..free predictions and see for yourself risk-free... " - the salesperson I spoke to (Danielle) refused to give this to me and the best offer she was able to give me was $3500 for two categories.

Perhaps I need to try a different salesperson.
  • #563
  • Jun 12, 2006 7:07am Jun 12, 2006 7:07am
Quoting jansher21
Thanks for this Trinity, and all others who have replied to my posting - much appreciated.

Perhaps I can risk a summary and suggest that the consensus is that predictions are reasonably accurate, but the trading methodology is the tricky part.

If the "prediction" element of their claim is correct, I am reasonably certain we can prepare the rudiments of a trading strategy.

The VP website also suggests that you can get "..free predictions and see for yourself risk-free... " - the salesperson I spoke to (Danielle) refused to give this to me and the best offer she was able to give me was $3500 for two categories.

Perhaps I need to try a different salesperson.
Hi jansher21........

Your summary conclusions are correct IMO.

As for the pricing; there are too many of us who paid heavily discounted prices for you or anyone else to pay more. VP offered me ALL markets for $1995. I suggest you keep trying until you find a salesperson and/or time when you can get a good discount. It's worth the effort and the wait.
  • #564
  • Jun 12, 2006 7:31am Jun 12, 2006 7:31am
Quoting jansher21
The VP website also suggests that you can get "..free predictions and see for yourself risk-free... " - the salesperson I spoke to (Danielle) refused to give this to me and the best offer she was able to give me was $3500 for two categories..
Hi jansher
Yes I applied for the '..free predictions..' and all I got was some charts showing previous results. Totally useless, to my mind these aren't predictions just cherry-picked charts to show what you might have seen in the past.
I'm sure there's a trades description infringement here.
Anyway, who cares, There's so much good stuff on here that if I had that sort of money laying around, I'd rather put it into my trading account.
There is so much to learn on this site that if I can't learn to turn a small profit from all the feedback nothing's going to help me.
Good luck in your decision, but from my years of experience in telephone sales, if the product stands examination in its own right, I didn't need to throw around the discounts VP offers.
Peter
  • #565
  • Jun 12, 2006 10:07am Jun 12, 2006 10:07am
Quoting zarni
Hey Andrew,
Actually if you have the fortitude I think VP works best with swing trading. You have to be able to stick with the program though. I have tested and it seems swing trading offers the best return out of any of the other options. I showed one example of more than 700% for 10 month period.
Hey Zarni, is your swing trading strat posted here, too? I would love to take a look at your conditions for entering/exiting your trades. for instance, what other confirming indicators are you using other than the predicted MA's crossing the Actual MA's??

Bernadette
  • #566
  • Jun 12, 2006 11:24am Jun 12, 2006 11:24am
Quoting PeterFM
Hi jansher
Yes I applied for the '..free predictions..' and all I got was some charts showing previous results. Totally useless, to my mind these aren't predictions just cherry-picked charts to show what you might have seen in the past.
I'm sure there's a trades description infringement here.
Anyway, who cares, There's so much good stuff on here that if I had that sort of money laying around, I'd rather put it into my trading account.
There is so much to learn on this site that if I can't learn to turn a small profit from all the feedback nothing's going to help me.
Good luck in your decision, but from my years of experience in telephone sales, if the product stands examination in its own right, I didn't need to throw around the discounts VP offers.
Peter
Hey Peter,

I just had that discussion with VP and they insist that a prediction that is from the past - still counts as a prediction, I guess it's like Bill Clinton saying "I did not have sexual relations with .... " - it is true, from a certain opaque point of view.

I am not impressed.

They are also not compromising on prices at all, $3900 for one categories or maybe 2 if they use "discretion".

Also - they point blank refuse to give any predictions for future unless you pay up front.

If it wasn't for all of the intelligent comments on this forum, I wouldn't have called them back.

All the best,

Jansher
  • #567
  • Jun 12, 2006 4:08pm Jun 12, 2006 4:08pm
Jansher et al

Just wait for the low offers -- if you have received emails from them, they will send you the offer in due course good for a few days usually, and about twice a year. The sales people must be drilled not to get into an involved discussion, and they may not trade anyway. Who knows?

Best regards
Trinity
  • #568
  • Jun 12, 2006 5:35pm Jun 12, 2006 5:35pm
Quoting Trinity
Jansher et al

Just wait for the low offers -- if you have received emails from them, they will send you the offer in due course good for a few days usually, and about twice a year. The sales people must be drilled not to get into an involved discussion, and they may not trade anyway. Who knows?

Best regards
Trinity
FYI.............sales people at VP are NOT allowed to trade!
  • #569
  • Jun 12, 2006 6:06pm Jun 12, 2006 6:06pm
[quote=jansher21]Hey Peter,

I just had that discussion with VP and they insist that a prediction that is from the past - still counts as a prediction, I guess it's like Bill Clinton saying "I did not have sexual relations with .... " - it is true, from a certain opaque point of view.

I am not impressed.

They are also not compromising on prices at all, $3900 for one categories or maybe 2 if they use "discretion".

Also - they point blank refuse to give any predictions for future unless you pay up front.

If it wasn't for all of the intelligent comments on this forum, I wouldn't have called them back.

All the best,

Hi Jansher

Honestly I wouldn't worry about buying VP

I wish I never had, but now that I have it I am trying to make it work. (on paper)

VP is no different to any other moving average system in that you can always cherry pick the good trades in Hindsight.

It is another tool that I think is not necessary.

I haven't come across anybody who can prove to me that they trade it consistenly with real money.

I would love to be told that I am wrong and people do make consistent profits with low drawdown etc.

All the best

Andrew C
  • #570
  • Jun 12, 2006 6:35pm Jun 12, 2006 6:35pm
[quote=timaru69]
Quoting jansher21
Hey Peter,

I just had that discussion with VP and they insist that a prediction that is from the past - still counts as a prediction, I guess it's like Bill Clinton saying "I did not have sexual relations with .... " - it is true, from a certain opaque point of view.

I am not impressed.

They are also not compromising on prices at all, $3900 for one categories or maybe 2 if they use "discretion".

Also - they point blank refuse to give any predictions for future unless you pay up front.

If it wasn't for all of the intelligent comments on this forum, I wouldn't have called them back.

All the best,

Hi Jansher

Honestly I wouldn't worry about buying VP

I wish I never had, but now that I have it I am trying to make it work. (on paper)

VP is no different to any other moving average system in that you can always cherry pick the good trades in Hindsight.

It is another tool that I think is not necessary.

I haven't come across anybody who can prove to me that they trade it consistenly with real money.

I would love to be told that I am wrong and people do make consistent profits with low drawdown etc.

All the best

Andrew C
It does work but is just one piece of the puzzle...I was about to toss it in the trash but I proved myself wrong.
THat doesn't mean you cannot make money without VP - however it does add one more thing in your arsenal.
  • #571
  • Jun 12, 2006 6:59pm Jun 12, 2006 6:59pm
[quote=zarni]
Quoting timaru69

It does work but is just one piece of the puzzle...I was about to toss it in the trash but I proved myself wrong.
THat doesn't mean you cannot make money without VP - however it does add one more thing in your arsenal.
I agree. A tool is a tool. Its all about how you use it. If this tool is not working for ya, find one that does....
  • #572
  • Jun 13, 2006 1:12am Jun 13, 2006 1:12am
[quote=baddison]
Quoting zarni

I agree. A tool is a tool. Its all about how you use it. If this tool is not working for ya, find one that does....
Hi Baddison and Zarni

Ok enlighten me , how do you use it as part of your trading strategy , EOD or intraday?
  • #573
  • Jun 13, 2006 9:43am Jun 13, 2006 9:43am
[quote=timaru69]
Quoting baddison

Hi Baddison and Zarni

Ok enlighten me , how do you use it as part of your trading strategy , EOD or intraday?
I use it for EOD only....I have not yet been able to grasp the effectiveness of my EOD data for intraday trading. I use other methods for intraday, but VP is definitely an asset to me for my longer term strategies.

In the attached pic. I use the bottom MA's like oscillators. I start to pay attention when they reach their extremes. I also look for divergences between price movement and the "oscillators" at the bottom. And I look at the crossovers too. Whatever helps me make a better educated decision, is what its all about for me.

I am here to learn from other users, some other ways to successfully use VP for successful Forex and Commodities trading.
Attached Image
  • #574
  • Jun 14, 2006 8:50am Jun 14, 2006 8:50am
From VP's website - well hidden in two pages of capitalised font is the following :

MARKET TECHNOLOGIES, LLC HAS HAD LITTLE OR NO EXPERIENCE IN TRADING ACTUAL ACCOUNTS FOR ITSELF OR FOR CUSTOMERS.

BECAUSE THERE ARE NOT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS TO COMPARE TO THE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS, CUSTOMERS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY WARY OF PLACING UNDUE RELIANCE ON THESE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS.

hmmmm ... not getting a warm feeling about this
  • #575
  • Jun 14, 2006 9:05am Jun 14, 2006 9:05am
Quoting jansher21
From VP's website - well hidden in two pages of capitalised font is the following :

MARKET TECHNOLOGIES, LLC HAS HAD LITTLE OR NO EXPERIENCE IN TRADING ACTUAL ACCOUNTS FOR ITSELF OR FOR CUSTOMERS.


BECAUSE THERE ARE NOT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS TO COMPARE TO THE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS, CUSTOMERS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY WARY OF PLACING UNDUE RELIANCE ON THESE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS.

hmmmm ... not getting a warm feeling about this
If Market Technologies didn't include this disclaimer, they would be sued frivolously by every half-wit who bought the software and then lost a boatload of money trading with the mistaken belief that VP software is an express train to riches.

I'll repeat myself here: I use VP software everyday as one of several tools to earn real money trading 10 currency pairs. I bought the software at a highly discounted price.............and have no regrets. I believe all potential buyers should do their homework and then make an intelligent and informed buying decision. What more needs to be said about the matter?
  • #576
  • Jun 14, 2006 9:56am Jun 14, 2006 9:56am
Quoting jansher21
From VP's website - well hidden in two pages of capitalised font is the following :

MARKET TECHNOLOGIES, LLC HAS HAD LITTLE OR NO EXPERIENCE IN TRADING ACTUAL ACCOUNTS FOR ITSELF OR FOR CUSTOMERS.

BECAUSE THERE ARE NOT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS TO COMPARE TO THE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS, CUSTOMERS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY WARY OF PLACING UNDUE RELIANCE ON THESE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS.

hmmmm ... not getting a warm feeling about this

You need to be a broker and licensed financial advisor to do this..Why would they go into that business??
Not to mention liability. There is no valid reason why they would do that. The disclaimer is totally to be expected.
  • #577
  • Jun 14, 2006 5:40pm Jun 14, 2006 5:40pm
[quote=baddison]
Quoting timaru69

I use it for EOD only....I have not yet been able to grasp the effectiveness of my EOD data for intraday trading. I use other methods for intraday, but VP is definitely an asset to me for my longer term strategies.

In the attached pic. I use the bottom MA's like oscillators. I start to pay attention when they reach their extremes. I also look for divergences between price movement and the "oscillators" at the bottom. And I look at the crossovers too. Whatever helps me make a better educated decision, is what its all about for me.

I am here to learn from other users, some other ways to successfully use VP for successful Forex and Commodities trading.
Hi again

Yes, I use the same sort of approach but also incorporate shooting stars and ABC patterns, although I don't always wait for a VP cross for these.

Another tactic I like is when there is consolidation under a whole number and VP is showing an index of 1. Typically I go short at this point and this can work into a nice trade, even though it is the opposite of what VP is saying.
  • #578
  • Jun 14, 2006 5:44pm Jun 14, 2006 5:44pm
[quote=timaru69]
Quoting baddison

Another tactic I like is when there is consolidation under a whole number and VP is showing an index of 1. Typically I go short at this point and this can work into a nice trade, even though it is the opposite of what VP is saying.
Not quite sure I follow you here...do you have an example we can look at?
  • #579
  • Jun 15, 2006 2:35am Jun 15, 2006 2:35am
[quote=baddison]
Quoting timaru69

Not quite sure I follow you here...do you have an example we can look at?
I guess what I mean is that this is an instance where i use pure price action to dictate the trade decsion rather than looking at what VP is telling me.

I don't know how to post a picture but there was a recent example on the AUD/USD a few days ago.

(I use PTS instead of PTM)
  • #580
  • Jun 18, 2006 9:31am Jun 18, 2006 9:31am
My 30 day free trial of Genesis data has just expired. I have some observations to make relating to previous discussions in this thread:

Genesis data more closely matched the data from my broker (FXCM) and the FX Interbank MT4 demo account I have been using. This translated into greater profits from the two mechanical trading systems I am using based on VP software. (One "set & forget" system has been thoroughly discussed in this thread, the other is still under development.) The predicted following day's highs and lows were more accurate with Genesis data and therefore my systems performed better. This is the only advantage for me to use Genesis data.

I hope this helps.
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