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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #39,461
  • Mar 28, 2013 4:58pm Mar 28, 2013 4:58pm
Quoting fti
hi.

what ever works for you.
is best if some one trained can check your mindset on and off. because is difficult for one see own weaknesses.
but of course one can do this like you doing. whatever suits. if pips ccoming in consistenly , then half the battle is already won.

regards.
How true what you said. When I started the journey into forex 4+ years ago, I invited friends and neighbours to join me so that we can check on each other, but nobody seemed interested except for a neighbour. I gave him all my notes but he only ask one question "are you making money yet?". I still feed him all the infor and doing the talking all the time. Maybe he is waithing for the day I start making money. And my answer is always: Within the next few months.

By the way, my passion for forex is still the same as the day I started. Learning it from you has already enrich my life, money should come soon. Just a few minor tweaks here and especially the "YOU" there should do the trick.

regards

zz
  • #39,462
  • Edited 10:28pm Mar 28, 2013 9:22pm | Edited 10:28pm
fascinating week.
too many dead under water.
it's too deep, so if i cut the losses, it could be a huge hole.
but i still defend it with hedging and averaging.
99% of margin is being used.
no loss in two weeks of defending, even small, my equity grows instead.

fight resolutely to the bitter end.
if i could relieve my load safely, i would be promoted, to be lieutenant.


Regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,463
  • Mar 28, 2013 11:11pm Mar 28, 2013 11:11pm
Dear fti and friends,

i was wondering if someone can check on my mindset, MO and/or MM.. These were my trades from last session.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The total loss was half of my foreign cap this month.

my affordable daylight is from london open to US lunch.

Personally, i feel that the prob was MO because i am blindly entering rescues without clear reversal patterns on the longer charts..
I was using 1M to time my entry.. however, on the hindsight. there isn't any reversal pattern on the 5M...

if my tenure is coming to an end.. i should just cut if not i have to stay up and and wait patiently for a rescue opportunity

Any comments or suggestion is most welcome.. thanks!
  • #39,464
  • Mar 29, 2013 12:03am Mar 29, 2013 12:03am
Quoting frz
fascinating week.
too many dead under water.
it's too deep, so if i cut the losses, it could be a huge hole.
but i still defend it with hedging and averaging.
99% of margin is being used.
no loss in two weeks of defending, even small, my equity grows instead.

fight resolutely to the bitter end.
if i could relieve my load safely, i would be promoted, to be lieutenant.


Regards

is easy confuse risiliance with rigidity.

regards
  • #39,465
  • Mar 29, 2013 12:31am Mar 29, 2013 12:31am
Quoting kinky
Dear fti and friends,

i was wondering if someone can check on my mindset, MO and/or MM.. These were my trades from last session.

Attachment

Attachment

Attachment

The total loss was half of my foreign cap this month.

my affordable daylight is from london open to US lunch.

Personally, i feel that the prob was MO because i am blindly entering rescues without clear reversal patterns on the longer charts..
I was using 1M to time my entry.. however, on the hindsight. there isn't any...

hi Kinky..

there's the differences between our tenure in trade.
but i see that your positions is against the trend.
what i'm doing in such condition is try recognize the wave,
is it in its peak or otherwise it's accumulating power to further movement.
my explanation can be wrong, since i'm still learning. my apologise for this indelicate commentary.
i will wait shifu for the right explanation.

Regards


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ss.png Size: 41 KB



Quoting cuthbert

is easy confuse risiliance with rigidity.


regards
hi cuthbert
so true.. i still defending some mistakes from couple weeks ago.
don't know what to do.. i think i will fight it till the end.

Regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,466
  • Mar 29, 2013 12:52am Mar 29, 2013 12:52am
Quoting frz
hi Kinky..

there's the differences between our tenure in trade.
but i see that your positions is against the trend.
what i'm doing in such condition is try recognize the wave,
is it in its peak or otherwise it's accumulating power to further movement.
my explanation can be wrong, since i'm still learning. my apologise for this indelicate commentary.
i will wait shifu for the right explanation.

Regards
Thanks for your kind reply! i appreciate it..

yea.. my percieved trend is based on the hourly chart. thats why i continued to short even though 5min is turning bullish.. i have a feeling that my timing to short is way off...
  • #39,467
  • Mar 29, 2013 1:13am Mar 29, 2013 1:13am
Hey Kinky
Just my 2 cents
I think that because of the situation in Cyprus
and if you read few pages back FTI spoke about reduce sized in this market .
It is still the same market but different terrain.
We are on the "Good Friday" it will dry liquidity because not many participants . After that we have two day without trading.
And next week all will start again.
Yesterday was a bad day for me too still fighting .
For me 1 min is way to fast i am watching on a 5 and 15 min.
My bias was Down to because of the Daily.
And as you said "Personally, i feel that the prob was MO because i am blindly entering rescues without clear reversal patterns on the longer charts"
I think you already spotted your mistakes. had a few myself .
I am too in a rescue mode but what i did i took the bullets back and now bleeding (still not dead in the water) with a loss and will watch today and wait next week how is everything continue.
Two scenarios that i think for myself 1: Bite the bullet 2:Continue rescue ( if there will be an opportunity)
Just my two cents - still learning
regards
Michael

Quoting kinky
Dear fti and friends,

i was wondering if someone can check on my mindset, MO and/or MM.. These were my trades from last session.


Attachment

Attachment

Attachment

The total loss was half of my foreign cap this month.

my affordable daylight is from london open to US lunch.

Personally, i feel that the prob was MO because i am blindly entering rescues without clear reversal patterns on the longer charts..
I was using 1M to time my entry.. however, on the hindsight. there isn't any reversal pattern...
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #39,468
  • Mar 29, 2013 1:21am Mar 29, 2013 1:21am
thanks michael and good luck on your trades.
  • #39,469
  • Mar 29, 2013 1:26am Mar 29, 2013 1:26am
Hey FRZ
When you say "bitter end " what do you mean ?
I think that somewhere you already said the preservation of capital is the main goal.
The one can be promoted to lieutenant but can be killed in battle
It is just one fight of many.
I know that it is easy to talk from a side ( i mean me)
But sometimes from a side someone can see something that one cant see within.
Hope you will manage to come to safety and promoted to Lieutenant
regards
Michael

Quoting frz
fascinating week.
too many dead under water.
it's too deep, so if i cut the losses, it could be a huge hole.
but i still defend it with hedging and averaging.
99% of margin is being used.
no loss in two weeks of defending, even small, my equity grows instead.

fight resolutely to the bitter end.
if i could relieve my load safely, i would be promoted, to be lieutenant.


Regards
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #39,470
  • Edited 2:33am Mar 29, 2013 1:49am | Edited 2:33am
Quoting -Michael-
Hey FRZ
When you say "bitter end " what do you mean ?
I think that somewhere you already said the preservation of capital is the main goal.
The one can be promoted to lieutenant but can be killed in battle
It is just one fight of many.
I know that it is easy to talk from a side ( i mean me)
But sometimes from a side someone can see something that one cant see within.
Hope you will manage to come to safety and promoted to Lieutenant
regards
Michael
hi Michael..

thanks.
yes absolutely, preservation capital is the main goal.
it was my scorpion in couple weeks ago that brought me in such condition.

Quoting frz

after trade without loss in couple days,
i count profit possibility for month or even for next year..
plan how to maximise profit, stretch every move.
then immediately, my trade goes random.
can't feel the pulse, trade against trend.
my ego raises, bring all available margin to market.
at that time, i don't know what happens.
i just feel that something wrong with my MO. not mindset.
so, i try different way,
but keep making same mistake: can't feel the pulse and trade against trend

and after a week in struggle, i'm still in battle for rescuing my position.
fresh mind and sanity is a necessity.

no regret.
i found, it was helping me to learn the flexibility of MM and exploring of any possibility.
if i bite the bullet, i still have 50% of equity.
so, i think i will fight to unload my positions safely.
thanks,, i hope too.. i can be lieutenant immediately.

have a good trade Michael


Regards


from Art of War:
"there is nothing more difficult than tactical maneuvering,
The difficulty of tactical maneuvering consists
in turning the devious into the direct, and misfortune into gain.

When trapped in fatal ground, he is in an irredeemable position.
He must order his army to fight resolutely to the bitter end."
steady as she goes
  • #39,471
  • Edited 3:10am Mar 29, 2013 2:45am | Edited 3:10am
Hi kinky


these are my observations of your entries, of course knowing what we should do and doing it are two different things, that is where the mindset thing needs to be kept in check, when I trade I constantly adjust within what is acceptable to my personal boundaries, some trades last minutes and some hours/days, flipping is an important part of doing this but probably the hardest for a trader to come to terms with within yourself.


Regards


Phil.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 111.png Size: 1.4 MB


that picture above is not very clear to see what i wrote within it, here is another zoomed in so hopefully will be clearer.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 122.PNG Size: 192 KB
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #39,472
  • Mar 29, 2013 3:13am Mar 29, 2013 3:13am
Hi Phil,

Thanks for your reply!

sorry that my chart is too cramp..

i have uploaded a more zoomed in one.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2013-03-29 at 4.09.20 PM.png Size: 1.4 MB


The "buys" are actually me offloading some of my short position. i didn't flip as mine perceived hourly trend was still down.. so i was intending to reload for the next wave down..

i noted your yellow level.. i guess that's where it should trigger me that the short chart [5M] has turned and i should patiently wait for the reversal on the higher TF if i wanna maintain the short position. otherwise, like you mentioned, flipping or staying aside is the way to go. Thanks for your valuable insight!
  • #39,473
  • Edited 3:53am Mar 29, 2013 3:41am | Edited 3:53am
Quoting kinky
Hi Phil,

Thanks for your reply!

sorry that my chart is too cramp..

i have uploaded a more zoomed in one.

Attachment

The "buys" are actually me offloading some of my short position. i didn't flip as mine perceived hourly trend was still down.. so i was intending to reload for the next wave down..

i noted your yellow level.. i guess that's where it should trigger me that the short chart [5M] has turned and i should patiently wait for the reversal on the higher TF. Thanks for your valuable insight!
hi kinky

ok i could not see the green lines of your short trades for the true picture. thanks for reposting.

the thing with relying on the hourly to guide for direction is that the turn in direction will first show up in the chart your trading M5, so you have to be aware of that and not blindly rely on hourly direction, i used to do this and got caught out often because of it, another thing is i try to space my trades out within the price moves/waves and not add to any that may be on the wrong side to eagerly, my personal tolerance for things going against me is about 300 pips, i never allow myself to have more than a certain amount of trades underwater at any given time according to the situation i find myself in, i found that i used to blindly follow the skew without much thought assuming that would save me, now i have a strategy to allows for the deployment of the troops according to the situation in the market and it makes a big difference, i rarely wonder how i am going to get out of something my patience and strategy works well for me now, in truth the market could move 500+ pips against my first entries that i allow myself and i could still recover but that would be a long fight back so i ask myself do i really want to do that and upset/disturb my mindset in the process.

the yellow level was just to show you that you added in that area, but once the last price move has been breached/fallen alarm bells would be alerting me to a possible new condition/situation in the market between the buyers and sellers.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #39,474
  • Mar 29, 2013 3:55am Mar 29, 2013 3:55am
i see.. thanks for the advice, phil! appreciate it much

another thought came to my mind.. as i approach the end of my own trading session.. i should not rely on the hourly trend anymore.. i may have to trade the 15M trend.. because i won't be able to babysit the hourly chart..
  • #39,475
  • Mar 29, 2013 4:10am Mar 29, 2013 4:10am
Quoting kinky
i see.. thanks for the advice, phil! appreciate it much

another thought came to my mind.. as i approach the end of my own trading session.. i should not rely on the hourly trend anymore.. i may have to trade the 15M trend.. because i won't be able to babysit the hourly chart..


Hi kinky


at the end of my daylight I adjust my trades to allow for the worst so when I go to sleep I can sleep and just re-manage what ever I find tomorrow has brought, I personally prefer not to hold overnight but that is not to say I will not.


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #39,476
  • Edited 5:57am Mar 29, 2013 5:17am | Edited 5:57am
hello my friends.
so sorry, i am not around much.
Personal stress is chewing lots of me and i tend trying sleep it off.
so i am not much use in market feels.
Moreover i not exposed in positions so is easy ease away to rest.

I am happy to see some can understand what this thread is trying convey.
no doubt some will be more skillful that others , each can help another along the way.
So i shall take a back seat again , watching many find their niche in the works.

one word i like say about the banking system.
They begining feel the pain just like traders do.

You see, the banks are the last bastille of honour for business men.
is the anchor for capital, the most important ingredient for sucess of business and trading.same as Cbs are to banks.
The only way troubleshoot situations is via capital robustness and good decision processes.
Now we seeing some banks are at the cliff. and not unlike traders they trying find capital.
Problem is , if thieves had made their way into the system. Then stealing can happen when no honour resides where is the anchor.

I am sad hear that some of you are in death battle mode.
It happens. Cannot be helped, it happens to everyone sometimes. But try not get into these mode too often.
Remember , your best times are when you relaxed and pips coming in. When in situations work prudently the risk you take to unentangle.
then rest well and go back to productive mode.

You will find you will be optimum productivity when you serene.
Let the futile strrugling to the ambitious and the thieves. Just collect what markets willing to give you and how much YOU, capitalisation, skillsets can carry.
Ant work and build your world.

I need get some more rest.
Fight well, intelligently, my friends.
will come back help some, when feeling better.

regards

Inserted Video


Inserted Video
  • #39,477
  • Mar 29, 2013 5:33am Mar 29, 2013 5:33am
rest well, fti. This kinda weather is perfect for sleeping in! please take care.
  • #39,478
  • Mar 29, 2013 7:24am Mar 29, 2013 7:24am
Hi fti


you are the last person that should apologise to us because you need a rest, you have and continue to give us so much.


Rest well my friend.


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #39,479
  • Mar 29, 2013 8:53am Mar 29, 2013 8:53am
Quoting fti
I am sad hear that some of you are in death battle mode.
It happens. Cannot be helped, it happens to everyone sometimes. But try not get into these mode too often.
Remember , your best times are when you relaxed and pips coming in. When in situations work prudently the risk you take to unentangle.
then rest well and go back to productive mode.

You will find you will be optimum productivity when you serene.
Let the futile strrugling to the ambitious and the thieves. Just collect what markets willing to give you and how much YOU, capitalisation,...

it's just my stubborn head that want learn anything in the hard way.
will get well soon.

Rest well shifu.


Regards
steady as she goes
  • #39,480
  • Mar 29, 2013 2:35pm Mar 29, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting frz


from Art of War:
"there is nothing more difficult than tactical maneuvering,
The difficulty of tactical maneuvering consists
in turning the devious into the direct, and misfortune into gain.

When trapped in fatal ground, he is in an irredeemable position.
He must order his army to fight resolutely to the bitter end."

hi,

you have three horses and enemy have three horses - weak horse, moderately strong horse and
strong horse.
how do you always win?
answer is for you

rgs
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