PPI & CPI this week... What are you expecting?

Hi all,

Just thought I would start a thread to get an idea of what kind of Inflation data we are all looking for. What numbers would you need to go short or long on the EUR/USD?

Do you all think there is this strong inflation data the Fed has recently looked at that is fueling their recent hawkish stance or were they just trying to keep the dollar from breaking 1.300 and getting away from them?

This inflation data this week will either build some decent credibility for the Fed or will totally destroy it in my opinion.

CPI & PPI are really very very important for dolars future as they will in my opinion (along with NFP later this month) be the catalyst for dollars strength and possible try for 1.24 and further down....

the CPI (core thats the one that Fed looks) was 0.3 so anything above that would be good news for dolar...and the higher the number the better...
PPI (excl food and energy)was 0.1 last month so we shall see tommorow what will happen....

if the CPI and PPI are bad then we can see euro gaining all losses from previous week and together with a lower than expected TICS data could drive the pair near recent highs again....

so really and honestly data dependant we shall see good moves and a lot of volume this week starting with tommorow PPI at 8:30 EST ....

So what happens if the PPI and CPI core rates are right in line with the forecasts? Will it be dollar negative or positive?

I would expect it to be neutral or negative if the number are as forcast. But all that doesnt matter because I'm not going to be in front of the curve. With Ben speaking at the same time, we could see a choppy market so I would be careful tomorrow.

I would have to say positive. The fed hasn't raised interest rates yet. This would just almost guarantee the raise. So the dollar will most probably get stronger (IMO). Also, my technical analysis tells me that EUR/USD will fall back to about 1.2200 over the next few weeks.

*Edit*

The Feds are in a terrible dilemma right now. They can see signs of slowing growth but at the same time you still have inflation. Question is, why raise rates when the slowdown in growth will keep inflation under control by itself? I think we could see a very choppy market tomorrow so be very careful. Don't jump in until the market shows clear direction. Patience pays off, getting on the wrong side from the beginning doesn't. Good luck!

I'm currently short EUR/USD from 1.2690 and I'm thinking of closing my position prior to the announcement, or at the very least, moving my S/L to protect those profits. I haven't experienced any slippage with IBFX to-date, but if the market is as volatile as we all expect it to be, I may take my $$ and run.

Any thoughts?

I am short at 1.2660 and plan to set SL at 50 pips profit before the announcements.

I would be more concerned about Retail Sales then ppi and cpi. Regardless what they come out at the feds raising at the end of the month.

I hate these weeks...

Is is just me or by looking at where the market is at right now, most people are expecting the numbers to be good for the dollar? On many of the us crosses, certain levels are just beggin to be broken.

Well it was mildly positive for the USD. I think its just sentiment..its definitely turned bearish now from a few weeks ago.

good choise

I lost 10 pips, cause order and stop was triggered..but not a big deal