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vsa with Malcolm

  • #23,821
  • Mar 27, 2013 11:37am Mar 27, 2013 11:37am
Quoting SimpleDev
Great post!

1h DX chart..
Hi SimpleDev, what indicators are you using to change the candles look and feel? This would be a great indicator for a VSA newbie like me

Thanks!
  • #23,822
  • Mar 27, 2013 12:39pm Mar 27, 2013 12:39pm
Quoting dquelhas
Gez40, you rule!! Many thanks for this post and for the indicators! I've been looking for something like this for ages!!

I have a couple of questions:

1. Is there an official site
2. If you overlay the "iPolo - BarBundles v1.3" onto a default chart on mt4, the overlay doesn't match the chart highs, lows and closes. Any idea why?

Thanks!
Oh, and another quick thing, when on a time frame, it always gives me different values. For example, if I'm on H1, it tells me it's H2 on the chart, if I'm on 5M, it tells me 10M on the chart, and so on. Any idea how to correct this?
  • #23,823
  • Mar 27, 2013 7:54pm Mar 27, 2013 7:54pm
Quoting Vcv13
what I meant is when when you guys are showing an example here, if possible, use a bar chart please.


for the moving averages, wouldn't a no demand or an upthrust below say a 21 day moving average be a high probability entry (short)?

in tradeguider the red/ green diamonds works just like a moving average.
If you just took ND/UT/NS/SO around a MA at BEST over the course of a year you would be a break even trader. I use a SMA, but more of to show me the trend. I admit I am terrible at identifying when the market is ranging or trending.

Learn to read the background, once you get good at reading the background and sticking with easy setups you can run 80% win rates over the course of a month.
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  • #23,824
  • Mar 27, 2013 8:30pm Mar 27, 2013 8:30pm
Quoting abhinkoi
Hi All,

Can someone please help me understand this H1 chart of EU with respect to VSA? As per my understanding heavy sell off was seen with stopping volume in the center of the chart. Post that some tests were done on low volume. Then there was a long candle closing in the top range with a good amount of volume shows that buying happened at the bottom levels. Followed by UT.

I am not able understand the situation after that & need your help.

Thanks
Abhinav
Lets start with 3/25, keep in mind from a 4h perspective we are still in a downtrend. If price is going to rally then we will need to see stopping volume, on 3/25 volume is about average, we really want to see climatic action, stopping volume, volume that is higher than the previous 3-5 days.

Moving on to 3/26, this bar is tricky, in reality its a potential selling (I don't want to use selling climax as volume is too low for it to be climatic) followed by an UT. Its very deceiving on EU, but if you check out 1h on UCHF it's clearer to see the potential buying followed by a SO.

This is the stuff that makes VSA hard, why soo many people give up on it. Don't make VSA hard, wait until you see massive amounts of volume and trade those setups. Take a look at the second chart, 15m AU yesterday, nothing around that can compare to the volume on this bar. We know its weak by the UT right before this bar, so we know that AU is going to drop and should have been looking for any excuse to sell.
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  • #23,825
  • Mar 27, 2013 8:34pm Mar 27, 2013 8:34pm
Quoting dquelhas
Hi SimpleDev, what indicators are you using to change the candles look and feel? This would be a great indicator for a VSA newbie like me

Thanks!
Quoting SimpleDev
http://www.sierrachart.com/

Sierra's feed and software.
I don't use MT4.
  • #23,826
  • Mar 27, 2013 9:10pm Mar 27, 2013 9:10pm
Quoting SimpleDev
...This is the stuff that makes VSA hard, why soo many people give up on it. Don't make VSA hard, wait until you see massive amounts of volume and trade those setups....
Teach on. I for one am .......

Inserted Video
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,827
  • Mar 27, 2013 9:38pm Mar 27, 2013 9:38pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Teach on. I for one am .......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuw52Chv2fw

Secondary Method: Four leaf clover and a Horseshoe...Can I borrow on occasion ??

Too funny

TSD
  • #23,828
  • Mar 28, 2013 5:05am Mar 28, 2013 5:05am
Quoting dquelhas
Oh, and another quick thing, when on a time frame, it always gives me different values. For example, if I'm on H1, it tells me it's H2 on the chart, if I'm on 5M, it tells me 10M on the chart, and so on. Any idea how to correct this?
That is so you can have different time frames that mt4 does not support, change the settings around and you`ll soon get the idea.
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #23,829
  • Mar 28, 2013 6:28am Mar 28, 2013 6:28am
Quoting gez40
That is so you can have different time frames that mt4 does not support, change the settings around and you`ll soon get the idea.
Hi gez40, is there an official website I can download and update the indicators?
  • #23,830
  • Mar 28, 2013 8:15am Mar 28, 2013 8:15am
Quoting dquelhas
Hi gez40, is there an official website I can download and update the indicators?
Not that I`m aware of, credit goes to Polomine for these, you can find 1.4 here, support normal time frame http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post4454854
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #23,831
  • Mar 28, 2013 10:24am Mar 28, 2013 10:24am
Quoting SimpleDev
Moving on to 3/26, this bar is tricky, in reality its a potential selling (I don't want to use selling climax as volume is too low for it to be climatic) followed by an UT. Its very deceiving on EU, but if you check out 1h on UCHF it's clearer to see the potential buying followed by a SO.
Thank you so much SimpleDev for such a detailed explanation. Trust me you explain charts really well.

I wasnt able to get the correct meaning of the "check out 1h on UCHF it's clearer to see the potential buying followed by a SO". Also I took the selling on 03/25 as selling stop and the tricky bar on 26th as buying but I was wrong....This is the topic which always confuses me & so far Im not able to get a grip over it. You are right that getting the clear background info is very important. If u understand the background well, you can catch further moves well.

Any idea how to overcome this gap? Im really willing to learn VSA and want to apply in trading to do better.

Thanks
Abhinav
  • #23,832
  • Mar 28, 2013 10:24am Mar 28, 2013 10:24am
Quoting SimpleDev
I don't use MT4.
Is this paid or free what you use?
  • #23,833
  • Mar 28, 2013 6:58pm Mar 28, 2013 6:58pm
Quoting abhinkoi
Thank you so much SimpleDev for such a detailed explanation. Trust me you explain charts really well.

I wasnt able to get the correct meaning of the "check out 1h on UCHF it's clearer to see the potential buying followed by a SO". Also I took the selling on 03/25 as selling stop and the tricky bar on 26th as buying but I was wrong....This is the topic which always confuses me & so far Im not able to get a grip over it. You are right that getting the clear background info is very important. If u understand the background well, you can catch further...
The volume on 3/25 was supporting volume, buying came in only to support the market. To keep the market from going into a panic sell and dropping uncontrollably.

USDCHF is basically EU upside down, below is the chart of 3/26, where you see a down bar on high volume the followed by a shake out. I was just saying that it was less confusing than the same two bars on EU.

I understand you not getting a grip of VSA, it trips up a lot of people they see bullish volume come in and price keeps dropping. Price isn't going to change direction just because of a few bars. It takes time for changes to happen and this is where your background comes in. I am going to make another post recapping what I see as happening yesterday hopefully that will make it easier for you to understand how to read the background.
If you can afford to join the VSA club, I think you can contact them and request to pay per month instead of paying for a full year in advance, join them and download all of Tom's webinars and watch them as much as you can.

Sierra is about $20 a month, so much better than MT4.
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  • #23,834
  • Mar 28, 2013 7:16pm Mar 28, 2013 7:16pm
Recap from yesterday, keep in mind that I am not interested unless there is massive volume involved. Massive volume is definitive and will give you the safer entries, since there wasn't any massive volume until London and I don't trade US session there was no setup for me.

First chart is a 1h, notice how the volume on the dip was low. Low suggesting the market was not interested in the downside.

Second chart is a 15m, the bar I marked to the left was in Asia, this bar shows you how Asia reacted to what happened in US. Asia saw the low volume and bought. This is our background, no one was interested in the downside in US and Asia bought, so shorts are probably not a good idea for the day.

Wide spread down bar on high volume in London then a test prints just before US session.
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  • #23,835
  • Mar 29, 2013 12:20am Mar 29, 2013 12:20am
Hi there. Some readings on the euro on a bit more longer time frame.
It is like a case for a bull move. Well, I know it is almost a stupidity to make a case for a bull move in euro but, anyways, here it is! :-)

Of course, would love to have your comments, opinions and corrections on this one too.

Daily chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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4hr chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Have all a nice weekend and holidays!
  • #23,836
  • Mar 29, 2013 4:57am Mar 29, 2013 4:57am
Quoting SimpleDev
If you just took ND/UT/NS/SO around a MA at BEST over the course of a year you would be a break even trader. I use a SMA, but more of to show me the trend. I admit I am terrible at identifying when the market is ranging or trending.

Learn to read the background, once you get good at reading the background and sticking with easy setups you can run 80% win rates over the course of a month.


Thanks
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #23,837
  • Mar 30, 2013 8:50pm Mar 30, 2013 8:50pm
Quoting joaoborras
Hi there. Some readings on the euro on a bit more longer time frame. It is like a case for a bull move. Well, I know it is almost a stupidity to make a case for a bull move in euro but, anyways, here it is! :-) Of course, would love to have your comments, opinions and corrections on this one too. Daily chart: 1162108 4hr chart: 1162109 Have all a nice weekend and holidays!
Hey Jo..

Well for one thing we are oversold and vulnerable to a rally. EU has dropped a 1000 pips from the high in February, and the 4h does look like it has strength in it. But still 4h/daily are in a downtrend so any longs at this point I think should be treated as counter trend trades.

What I disagree with is the daily bars on 2/25.. There is some buying on these bars, but I think that the overall volume across these bars is still bearish. On the higher TFs is not uncommon to see stopping volume and price still falls 100-200 pips, but when price continues to fall after stopping volume it should do it on very low volume down bars, which is not the case here. If 2/25 was bullish volume and price fell another 100 pips or so, we would have seen bullish PA within a week or two after 2/25. Instead we are 300 pips down a month later and no real bullish PA. I have attached a 12h chart, which shows the subsequent bars after the potential buying volume on 2/25 and these bars do not look bullish at all.

Still on the daily chart, the down move you marked showing low volume. On the higher time frames for price to move, the market has to be flooded with supply. So you will see price price move on low volume because it does not take much effort with the amount of supply in the market.

I know this sounds very conflicting information, I just said that on higher time frames price can still drop 100-200 pips on low volume and that price can move down on low volume because of the amount of supply. But you have to pay attention to the PA. The 2nd chart is another 12h chart from back at the market bottom in August 2012, you will see the stopping volume and the a series of SOs, basically strong PA. Which we don't really see the same signs of strength on the first chart.
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  • #23,838
  • Mar 30, 2013 9:43pm Mar 30, 2013 9:43pm
Quoting SimpleDev
Hey Jo.. Well for one thing we are oversold and vulnerable to a rally. EU has dropped a 1000 pips from the high in February, and the 4h does look like it has strength in it.... I just said that on higher time frames price can still drop 100-200 pips on low volume and that price can move down on low volume because of the amount of supply. But you have to pay attention to the PA. The 2nd chart is another 12h chart from back at the market bottom in August 2012, you will see the stopping volume and the a series of SOs, basically strong PA. Which we...
Quoting joaoborras
Hi there. Some readings on the euro on a bit more longer time frame. It is like a case for a bull move. Well, I know it is almost a stupidity to make a case for a bull move in euro but, anyways, here it is! :-) Of course, would love to have your comments, opinions and corrections on this one too. Daily chart: 1162108 4hr chart: 1162109 Have all a nice weekend and holidays!
Okay, I'll play.

I don't predict markets, but a case can be made for taking a valid long signal at this time.

As Joaoborras has pointed out, the volume has been decreasing as price as been falling. Yet, the two things that most have me favoring the long side are:

1. The high volume that entered on the up interval that started the down move has been matched by volume on an down bar. In fact it has been surpassed three times. As you can see on the chart below, the first time was climatic ( black volume bar) yet price continued to fall. Now take a look a little later when we see down interval that closes near its high on ultra high volume. Whilst the volume bar is not black, we note that it is actually higher than the volume that started the down move. As well as being higher than the last 12 previous intervals.

2. More importantly, we have moved into a Supply/Demand Delta Zone. The second picture shows the creation of this zone and the market's last response when it fell into this zone. As price has moved into this zone, we are starting to see volume bars with volume less than the previous two intervals.

I don't have Friday's completed interval on these charts, but Friday looks like a Test. The volume is very low (grey) on a very narrow slightly down bar. This is great especially since the last bar that can be seen here looks like a possible No Demand. So I would get long with a move above the high of Friday's interval. Not to do so would be to call myself a liar. The market is going to do what the market is going to do, so I would have a stop in place to manage my risk. I would scoff at anyone who is concerned with being right and not making losses. Because I know "Losses are not mistakes, they are the occasional and inevitable consequence of exposing oneself to risk"-Hanover.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,839
  • Mar 30, 2013 10:03pm Mar 30, 2013 10:03pm
CAD update:

Based on the first chart, one could actually already be short. Price hit a Supply/Demand Delta Zone on a Hidden Up Thrust.

Looking at the more traditional VSA trend trading method, we have seen a No Demand on Friday. We note that the bars are red, price is below the BPL and it is red. The aggressive entry is to short at the open on Sunday. The more traditional VSA approach is to wait for price to take out the low of this No Demand interval.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,840
  • Mar 31, 2013 3:46am Mar 31, 2013 3:46am
Quoting SimpleDev
Hey Jo.. Well for one thing we are oversold and vulnerable to a rally. EU has dropped a 1000 pips from the high in February, and the 4h does look like it has strength in it. But still 4h/daily are in a downtrend so any longs at this point I think should be treated as counter trend trades. What I disagree with is the daily bars on 2/25.. There is some buying on these bars, but I think that the overall volume across these bars is still bearish. On the higher TFs is not uncommon to see stopping volume and price still falls 100-200 pips, but when price...
Hi SimpleDev,
Thanks a lot for your comments. They are highly valid.
And you are right, on the daily chart, there is no PA indicating a reverse to the up side yet. I can see it only in the 4hr chart, with that small base being formed.
The price that is the line in the sand is 2880, as minimum. We still have the high of that bar that must be taken in order to say that there was more buy pressure within that bar.
With that in mind, a possible idea is to be long now and take some profits out when price reaches 2880 and then, look carefully to PA and VSA principles at that level for continuation to up side or reverse back to the down side.

Also, your 2nd chart is the picture perfect for what we have to look for in PA to have a change in trend. Thanks to post it.

In the news front, I read some twitters saying that Cyprus is past now and the focus will be in Italy. And, in Italy, Berlusconni is showing signs that will be cooping with a broad base alliance to deal with Italy issues. Sounds good?
Let's see what next week throw to us.
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