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Higher low, lower high system

  • #6,201
  • Mar 22, 2013 8:07am Mar 22, 2013 8:07am
Hi Ian! Can you share your MA indicator and settings, please?
Quoting Ian
Very nice analysis this morning as usual V..

EJ moved down below the trend line (the pink upward sloping line) drawn from the 121.62 low on Monday 18th to test that low and the daily S1. Price then moved up rejecting the low and forming an hourly bullish engulfing with positive divergence. Simultaneously UJ had bounced up off support and EU had made a strong positive close.

The was also positive divergence showing on the 15 min followed by a higher low. My buy order was just above the Monthly pivot/MS1/W_M0 confluence at 122.46.

When...
  • #6,202
  • Edited 10:30am Mar 22, 2013 8:20am | Edited 10:30am
Quoting Flaviu1981
Hi Ian! Can you share your MA indicator and settings, please?
Hi, It's the AllAverages indi you can find it here... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post5094688

I use the same MAs as V., 8LWMA, 50EMA and 200EMA. The MA Method on the indi is 1 for the EMAs and 3 for the LWMA.
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #6,203
  • Mar 22, 2013 1:35pm Mar 22, 2013 1:35pm
Thank you so much Ian!
I wish you all the good things!
  • #6,204
  • Mar 23, 2013 1:23am Mar 23, 2013 1:23am
Quoting Ian
Simultaneously UJ had bounced up off support and EU had made a strong positive close.
Yep very nice trade, when all 3 moved in same direction.

Sorry couldn't post earlier, terrible connection yesterday. Very frustrating when analysis pans out, great engulfing 3 bar reversal on EJ 1hr, 4hr massive lower wick and you cannot get on the internet.

Thankfully theres more trades next week!!
  • #6,205
  • Mar 23, 2013 1:45am Mar 23, 2013 1:45am
Recap 22 Mar

EUR - Bias down with potential to bounce up from support.
Result: Bounce up from support/W M1 combination.

GU - Bias up but watch for reaction lower at resistance levels mentioned.
Result: Bias up played out.

EJ - I'll say bias down simply because of the D close with the chance for bounce up from the recent lows.
Result: Bounce up from the lows/W S3 combination.
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  • #6,206
  • Mar 24, 2013 11:56pm Mar 24, 2013 11:56pm
EUR GU EJ 25 Mar

EUR - Approaching 1.3050 W R1 to close the gap. D positive close Friday. 1hr flow higher high higher low but we do have negative sell divergence. We can react lower once the gap is closed, if not then the next target will be W R2 1.3112- W R1 1.3164 the body/wick highs from Sep/Oct '12.

GU - We are at a key resistance level going back to Jan and May (easier to see on W charts). 1hr negative sell divergence. We can react lower from here, failing that next target higher the high from 22 Feb W R1 at 1.5306.

EJ - Fri closed a doji, on that candle we are below RSI 50 level and below the 8lwma. 4hr and 1hr on higher high higher low flow. Bias up next target the Mar highs/W R1 124.28.
  • #6,207
  • Mar 25, 2013 8:09am Mar 25, 2013 8:09am
After missing out on EUR this morning EJ 1hr gave a lower high to flip the previously bullish flow. Sold the 15 min lower high at 122.87 about 45 mins ago. Currently + 25ish struggling to break below the days open. We are hoping the fall goes lower to the next W pivot.

Stop at BE will post charts later if trade survives.
  • #6,208
  • Mar 25, 2013 11:23pm Mar 25, 2013 11:23pm
Recap 25 Mar, EUR GU lower high following divergence

EUR - Approaching 1.3050 W R1 to close the gap. D positive close Friday. 1hr flow higher high higher low but we do have negative sell divergence. We can react lower once the gap is closed, if not then the next target will be W R2 1.3112- W R1 1.3164 the body/wick highs from Sep/Oct '12.
Result: 1.3050/W R1 held, a double top going into London open. The 1hr lower high that followed after the divergence played out perfectly.

GU - We are at a key resistance level going back to Jan and May (easier to see on W charts). 1hr negative sell divergence. We can react lower from here, failing that next target higher the high from 22 Feb W R1 at 1.5306.
Result: The resistance level held. 1hr lower high going into London open that followed after the divergence played out perfectly.

EJ - Fri closed a doji, on that candle we are below RSI 50 level and below the 8lwma. 4hr and 1hr on higher high higher low flow. Bias up next target the Mar highs/W R1 124.28.
Result: Bias up did not play out. The 1hr lower high before and after London open saw the flow change and EJ followed the EUR
  • #6,209
  • Mar 25, 2013 11:53pm Mar 25, 2013 11:53pm
EUR GU EJ 26 Mar

We will have to see what the further reaction is to the decision to have private investors in Cyprus having bank deposits over 100,000 Euro's take a massive hit to save the banks? Surely a further flight to safety if you have money in a country with a risky economy i.e. southern Europe.

EUR - D engulfing close that couldn't break below the March lows (after a 170 pip run down no problem there). Trend resumed, bias down.

GU - D negative close that could not get a cross of RSI's signal line or the 8 lwma. A negative close on 1hr would be another low high. Whilst the D candle is not convincing 1hr bias down for now.

EJ - D engulfing negative close. 4hr on lower high lower low, 1hr had a higher low in Asian session overnight. That seems to be failing on the candle currently open. A D candle as good as that should follow through lower even if not at the pace of yesterday. Bias down.
  • #6,210
  • Edited 9:42am Mar 26, 2013 9:34am | Edited 9:42am
Quoting Vantage
GU - D negative close that could not get a cross of RSI's signal line or the 8 lwma. A negative close on 1hr would be another low high. Whilst the D candle is not convincing 1hr bias down for now.
Price pushed up through the pivot to the 50% retrace of Y's move down. We then got a negative engulfing close lower high on the 1 hr which coincided with a 3 bar reversal close on my 4 hr chart. 15 min lower high little/no lower wick followed and my sell orders were at 1.5166. One stop (set incorrectly..) didn't trigger and I was able to enter the second half of my position with a market order at a slightly better price.

As we hit the 50 ema on my 4 hr chart when price pushed through Y's low and was quickly rejected I closed out for an average of +25.
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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #6,211
  • Mar 26, 2013 9:39am Mar 26, 2013 9:39am
Quoting Ian
...As we hit the 50 ema on my 4 hr chart when price pushed through Y's low and was quickly rejected I closed out for an average of +25.
4 hr chart.
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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #6,212
  • Mar 26, 2013 11:43pm Mar 26, 2013 11:43pm
Missed that one after taking a small loss elsewhere. Nice.
  • #6,213
  • Mar 26, 2013 11:43pm Mar 26, 2013 11:43pm
EUR GU EJ 27 Mar

EUR - D doji after the Cyprus mess the market calmed down. 4hr on lower high approaching W M1 1.2831 that provided support. The reaction higher this week was nowhere near as big a reaction as last week, so whilst we have potential to bounce bias down.

GU - D closed a doji. 4hr, 1hr flow down. Support potentially at 1.5130. Bias down.

EJ - Inside bar positive D close, upper trend line not yet tested. Approaching W M2 122.00 level that provided support recently. The 4hr has had a higher low but still on lower high lower low. Bias down from the key level.
  • #6,214
  • Mar 27, 2013 6:59am Mar 27, 2013 6:59am
Hello Van

Yesterday candle pos/neg close and shadow formation confirmed by RSI ma cross for entry but result was neg exit.Please have a look on chart and what you see on arrow highlighted candles?

Thanks
frank
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  • #6,215
  • Mar 27, 2013 8:13am Mar 27, 2013 8:13am
Quoting frank.david
Hello Van

Yesterday candle pos/neg close and shadow formation confirmed by RSI ma cross for entry but result was neg exit.Please have a look on chart and what you see on arrow highlighted candles?

Thanks
frank
Hi Frank

Yesterday was just one of those days where there was no follow through, it will happen again make no mistake. Thankfully its the exception rather than the rule.

On the chart yesterday your left arrow down. A rejection of move up shooting star going into London open, a clear sell signal back into trend.

26 Mar left arrow up. A hammer after a shooting star, I cannot tell you how much I hate it when those 2 candles follow each other. From my experience the low of the hammer is just as likely to fail and go lower as it is to go higher because of the hammer.

26 Mar arrow down right. Still expecting move down if I recall, we had a small loss following this candle.

26 Mar middle arrow up, that 1hr candle was caused by a large 15 min candle, by that stage Mrs V had decided that enough chop was enough and was sitting out any moves.

26 Mar arrow up right. Now late in the day and we would not consider a trade there especially on such a choppy day.

27 Mar arrow down. Thats an easy one as per our analysis from this morning - EJ - Inside bar positive D close, upper trend line not yet tested. Approaching W M2 122.00 level that provided support recently. The 4hr has had a higher low but still on lower high lower low. Bias down from the key level.
If you look to the left of your chart at the lows for 22 Mar, add in the weak close on D for 26th and the other items mentioned means that the 1hr 3 bar reversal negative closes should set up system sells if you were in front of the computer.
  • #6,216
  • Mar 27, 2013 11:06pm Mar 27, 2013 11:06pm
Quoting Vantage
Hi Frank

Yesterday was just one of those days where there was no follow through, it will happen again make no mistake. Thankfully its the exception rather than the rule...

27 Mar arrow down. Thats an easy one as per our analysis from this morning - EJ - Inside bar positive D close, upper trend line not yet tested. Approaching W M2 122.00 level that provided support recently. The 4hr has had a higher low but still on lower high lower low. Bias down from the key level.
If you look to the left of your chart at the lows...
Hi Van

Very useful as usual.

Regards
  • #6,217
  • Mar 27, 2013 11:18pm Mar 27, 2013 11:18pm
Recap 27 Mar, EUR bounce from key level

EUR - D doji after the Cyprus mess the market calmed down. 4hr on lower high approaching W M1 1.2831 that provided support. The reaction higher this week was nowhere near as big a reaction as last week, so whilst we have potential to bounce bias down.
Result: The idea of the weaker bounce from a key level, bounce up in this case, played out. W M1 failed, down bias played out nicely.

GU - D closed a doji. 4hr, 1hr flow down. Support potentially at 1.5130. Bias down.
Result: Down bias played out.

EJ - Inside bar positive D close, upper trend line not yet tested. Approaching W M2 122.00 level that provided support recently. The 4hr has had a higher low but still on lower high lower low. Bias down from the key level.
Result: The upper resistance levels held, down bias played out.
  • #6,218
  • Mar 27, 2013 11:25pm Mar 27, 2013 11:25pm
Quoting frank.david
Hi Van

Very useful as usual.

Regards
Cheers Frank. As long as you are seeing potential support and resistance levels, you can then with some level of anticipation, trade the reaction. In EJ's case it was a 4hr doji and 1hr 3 bar reversals. Some 9 hours of hesitation not wanting to go higher.

I did get 1 person email me that we did not quite get to the 122.00 level that I mentioned some 4hr odd hours earlier. Sorry I was 14 pips out.
  • #6,219
  • Mar 27, 2013 11:49pm Mar 27, 2013 11:49pm
EUR GU EJ 28 Mar

Not sure if the big boys will have today as their effective quarter end with the holidays coming up. A performance bonus based on profits could be improved if positions are stretched at the close. Would have to think for EUR and GU that would be more downside.

EUR - D negative close, 4hr flow lower high lower low, no divergence, bias down.

GU - Small negative close back below our 8lwma and RSI crossed lower, hardly a strong close though. 4hr lower high lower low in play, no divergence, bias down.

EJ - D negative close, 4hr lower high lower low with a bounce from the weeks low. Bias down.
  • #6,220
  • Mar 28, 2013 4:18am Mar 28, 2013 4:18am
EJ popped up to 120.75 a clear SR level if you look at 1hr from 26 Mar to now. Mrs V sold the 15 min lh little/no lower wick to get back into down bias, entry 120.48.

I do not know what her exit strategy is at this stage as there are some clear lows coming. Just gone below 120.
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