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  • #421
  • Edited 7:40pm Mar 21, 2013 7:10pm | Edited 7:40pm
Quoting FXEZ
I'm not sure what else there is to say. The premise was that larger drawdown systems don't blow up. I showed using the same example posted, that this is not the case.
I was misunderstood. Not the first time lol. Large drawdown systems absolutely blow up! The premise was to say that systems with an equity curve straight up without proof a drawdown can be managed, statistically end in a big drawdown/blowup scenario when the first authentic drawdown occurs. For example many systems take a few points here and a few points there, leaving large open losses open, testing fate each time. Fate eventually knocks on the trader's door and the system blows up.

My main point is to say it is always good to see how a system handles a drawdown. There is much strength in a system that has a "higher low" created in the pullback, rather than a breakdown past the previous lows. Seeing how one manages risk is important.

Quoting FXEZ
Going from 3 billion under management to less than 25 million sure sounds like a blowup to me. It may have been slow motion but it is still a blowup. Closing shop and forcing investors to redeem their shares isn't a sign of success. 8 years with net losses doesn't sound like success to me. You may say if only they had written the article earlier. But the fact is that a trader is only as good as his next trade. Past results mean nothing.
The capital under management was mainly withdrawn and some lost. The performance trend shown in the chart, indicates the trend is still up. The general financial media does a good job painting a more dramatic picture than reality, thanks CNBC...

Henry knew exactly what he was doing when he retired. As the article said....
"Don’t cry for Henry – he’s doing just fine: still worth $1.5 billion, and the 389th richest person in the US according to Forbes."
See our myfbook results. Our username = MPC
  • #422
  • Mar 26, 2013 9:28am Mar 26, 2013 9:28am
I figure i have some fun and put a poll up (on the first page) as to when you think my system will blow up? or not.
NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #423
  • Mar 28, 2013 7:37am Mar 28, 2013 7:37am
So I'm just curious why Oanda doesn't include all history under its MT4 platform. So I decided to have a conversation about it. And it just went completely wrong direction LOL

Please wait for an agent to respond.
You are now chatting with 'Gabriela'
Gabriela: Thank you for choosing OANDA. How may I help you?
syed: is there a way for oanda to keep all trading history in metatrader 4? i only see last 100 transactions
Gabriela: One moment please while I verify
Gabriela: You should be able to access the last 90 days of your transactions
syed: right. Why can't i access to all of them?
Gabriela: Do you have the Terminal open?
syed: Yes
syed: I did "all history"
syed: under terminal
syed: i know that already
Gabriela: Do you mind choosing " Last 3 Months"
syed: ok
syed: now it shows last three months
syed: but i've been trading with mt4 longer than that since late OCt 2012
Gabriela: I understand, unfortunately, being a third-party platform only the last 3 months are available
Gabriela: You are welcome to access the fxtrade platform which will display more History
syed: Gabriela is a beautiful name, where are you from?
Gabriela: I am from Canada
Gabriela: Thank you for the compliments
syed: So you work at Oanda Canada?
Gabriela: That is correct
syed: I'm actually making a trip to Canada for business. You and I should have lunch because I'm curious about Oanda as a broker
Gabriela: Unfortunately, that would not be possible but thank you for the offer
syed: is your position in sales/customer service?
Gabriela: Customer service
Gabriela: I can forward your information to our Sales team
syed: I'm actually just curious about you. Last 2 Gabrielas I met look like models.
syed: So no to lunch then?
Gabriela: Unfortunately, it is a no
syed: ok then have a nice day
Gabriela: Have a wonderful day as well

Lol i got shot down by Gabriela yo!..dang....
NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #424
  • Mar 28, 2013 10:08am Mar 28, 2013 10:08am
Quoting TPOTrader
So I'm just curious why Oanda doesn't include all history under its MT4 platform. So I decided to have a conversation about it. And it just went completely wrong direction LOL
This made me laugh - love your energy champ good job.
  • #425
  • Mar 29, 2013 7:55am Mar 29, 2013 7:55am
Still have one trade open. Market volume is crap.

I remember many times when i hold a long trade on fridays and it was going my way..then suddenly S&P downgraded somebody and market crashed.

Well now i'm holding short..really hoping for a downgrade right now
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  • #426
  • Mar 29, 2013 8:51am Mar 29, 2013 8:51am
Quoting TPOTrader
Still have one trade open. Market volume is crap.

I remember many times when i hold a long trade on fridays and it was going my way..then suddenly S&P downgraded somebody and market crashed.

Well now i'm holding short..really hoping for a downgrade right now
European and UK banks closed for holidays. US bankers in Palm Beach sipping adult beverages. Dude why are you trading?
  • #427
  • Mar 29, 2013 10:13am Mar 29, 2013 10:13am
End of quarter. Lot of shit can happen. Some money manager can unload all positions and move the market slightly to trigger stops.
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  • #428
  • Mar 29, 2013 12:52pm Mar 29, 2013 12:52pm
So, why do you care if stops got hit....move to the next trade....o.....there is no trading today...
  • #429
  • Mar 29, 2013 2:30pm Mar 29, 2013 2:30pm
Quoting TPOTrader
End of quarter. Lot of shit can happen. Some money manager can unload all positions and move the market slightly to trigger stops.
Thursday's Equity session (NYC cash/equity markets,) was the time to finish off the quarter.

There was an index weighting adjustment (typical of quarter ends) in equities across multiple indexes, and most markets around the world would be closed on Friday, so most of the big moves for quarter end took place on Thursday. Lots of money chasing the index re-weighting for instance, as every fund that tracks the index has to get the closing print of that day on the new shares taken in or shares sold off to keep in line with the index, so that attracts all kinds of traders playing off that info (myself included.)

--

For Forex: Today's just liquidity hell, most banks aren't trading, and the ones that are won't put up much liquidity (risk) on the book. I avoid trading on day's like this since it's just full of chop and wide spreads, and with that I don't feel like I have an edge in such an environment. I mean, why risk unless you have a plan specifically for such a day?

--

Keep your head on straight, focus, and remind yourself that the only important thing is executing your next trade within your plan (not trying to make up for losses.)

You have a decent strategy and you'll recover from the drawdown in time. Don't worry about the scared money following you, if they can't handle the drawdown (which is well within what you posted in your backtesting as a possibility,) then they shouldn't have been following your trades to begin with.

FXGears.com
  • #430
  • Mar 29, 2013 4:45pm Mar 29, 2013 4:45pm
Quoting Jack_Larkin
Thursday's Equity session (NYC cash/equity markets,) was the time to finish off the quarter.

There was an index weighting adjustment (typical of quarter ends) in equities across multiple indexes, and most markets around the world would be closed on Friday, so most of the big moves for quarter end took place on Thursday. Lots of money chasing the index re-weighting for instance, as every fund that tracks the index has to get the closing print of that day on the new shares taken in or shares sold off to keep in line with the index, so that attracts...
Well March is over but i still have an open trade. My strategy as it stands now is to just carry over open trade until next session. When i backtested this, i didn't take into account holidays except for christmas and new years. So i'll stick to that unless over time i learn that this is going to eat into my profitability.

As far as clients go...well, most of them are gone. Yup. Most clients i had left around mid march -except of course couple of family members who i can force to stay . Rapa even dropped me as one of the "Famous five". Now i guess it's the "encore four" lol.

I will still trade my way going forward. It just sucks that I couldn't withdraw any profits like i have been last couple of months (good times). I hope April will bring in enough volatility to at least recover this DD and by that time make new equity high by May.
NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #431
  • Mar 29, 2013 4:55pm Mar 29, 2013 4:55pm
Wow, so you admitting you lost most of your clients...good stuff....not many people can handle drawdowns like that...but in a trend following system there is no choice but to have large drawdowns during chop and take all of the trades, as one never knows when the trend will begin...
  • #432
  • Mar 31, 2013 7:05pm Mar 31, 2013 7:05pm
Last trade for march is closed.

March is about -20% down. Which is -1% greater than my largest hypthetical loss (-19%). But then again my largest gain so far since inception is 45% , which s +1% more than my largest hypothetical gain (44%). So it all balances out..

for some reason i can't switch myfxbook time to GMT-6. It's stuck on GMT 0, which kind of screws up my monthly gain a bit.
NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #433
  • Apr 1, 2013 6:09am Apr 1, 2013 6:09am
I am also working trend following system where I am trying to capture on average 8-10% a month.

My question is...if someone is trying to make 100% annually, what drawdown percentage one should expect? btw, I do not think that 20% drawdown is out of norm....
  • #434
  • Apr 1, 2013 6:20am Apr 1, 2013 6:20am
Quoting driven18
I am also working trend following system where I am trying to capture on average 8-10% a month. My question is...if someone is trying to make 100% annually, what drawdown percentage one should expect? btw, I do not think that 20% drawdown is out of norm....
there's no right answer for "acceptable" drawdown. if you're trading your own money-it can be anything as long as your overall gain is at least 1.5 to 2x your worst DD, i'd say that's acceptable. But it has to be realisitic (70% DD with 140% return is borderline unreal).

If you are running a signal service, i would say keep it under 15%, cause anything over that will spook your followers
NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #435
  • Apr 1, 2013 7:36am Apr 1, 2013 7:36am
Keep in mind if you lose 40% you need to make 80% just to get back to breakeven.

50% DD you would need to make 100%.
  • #436
  • Apr 1, 2013 9:18am Apr 1, 2013 9:18am
Quoting Joeldav
Keep in mind if you lose 40% you need to make 80% just to get back to breakeven. 50% DD you would need to make 100%.
you meant 66.6666666666666666666666666666666666666666% to get to breakeven
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  • #437
  • Apr 1, 2013 9:50am Apr 1, 2013 9:50am
This is where I was basing my post off of.

http://onswipe.investopedia.com/inve...7b56700803db/2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #438
  • Apr 1, 2013 11:26am Apr 1, 2013 11:26am
Quoting Joeldav
Keep in mind if you lose 40% you need to make 80% just to get back to breakeven. 50% DD you would need to make 100%.
% return = ending equity / starting equity - 1
if starting equity = 100, ending equity = 80, then % return = 80/100 - 1 = -20%
If starting equity = 80, ending equity = 100, then % return = 100/80 - 1 = +25%

if starting equity = 100, ending equity = 60, then % return = 60/100 - 1 = -40%
If starting equity = 60, ending equity = 100, then % return = 100/60 - 1 = +66.7%

if starting equity = 100, ending equity = 50, then % return = 50/100 - 1 = -50%
If starting equity = 50, ending equity = 100, then % return = 100/50 - 1 = +100%
  • #439
  • Apr 1, 2013 1:22pm Apr 1, 2013 1:22pm
Quoting FXEZ
% return = ending equity / starting equity - 1 if starting equity = 100, ending equity = 80, then % return = 80/100 - 1 = -20% If starting equity = 80, ending equity = 100, then % return = 100/80 - 1 = +25% if starting equity = 100, ending equity = 60, then % return = 60/100 - 1 = -40% If starting equity = 60, ending equity = 100, then % return = 100/60 - 1 = +66.7% if starting equity = 100, ending equity = 50, then % return = 50/100 - 1 = -50% If starting equity = 50, ending equity = 100, then % return = 100/50 - 1 = +100%
one of the biggest downfall for retail traders is the lack of understanding of asymmetric leverage and how it can turn a winning system into a losing one.
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  • #440
  • Edited 2:19pm Apr 1, 2013 2:08pm | Edited 2:19pm
Quoting FXEZ
% return = ending equity / starting equity - 1 if starting equity = 100, ending equity = 80, then % return = 80/100 - 1 = -20% If starting equity = 80, ending equity = 100, then % return = 100/80 - 1 = +25% if starting equity = 100, ending equity = 60, then % return = 60/100 - 1 = -40% If starting equity = 60, ending equity = 100, then % return = 100/60 - 1 = +66.7% if starting equity = 100, ending equity = 50, then % return = 50/100 - 1 = -50% If starting equity = 50, ending equity = 100, then % return = 100/50 - 1 = +100%
At starting equity of $100 risking 5% per trade for example, a trader would risk $5
If equity had a drawdown to $50 and the trader kept risk constant, risking $5 per trade, they would now be risking 10%
10% would be double their original planned risk.
At $50 the conservative trader would adjust risk to 5% risking $2.50 per trade, making it longer to reach breakeven but also protecting the pullback in equity from causing a blowup
At $50 equity the trader would need to double their account to reach breakeven, or to get back to 100%.
It is just a different more conservative way to approach trading during a dd
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