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  • #5,181
  • Mar 21, 2013 12:23pm Mar 21, 2013 12:23pm
Anyone catch the short on the EU today.. Look at the 5M.. We had 2.. The first was at 2929 area for about 30 pips plus.. The second short was at the 2940 area for another 30 pip plus move short...Text book trades with the larger trend showing short.

I was not at my screen to take these trades

TSD
  • #5,182
  • Mar 22, 2013 12:42am Mar 22, 2013 12:42am
I would just like to thank Kenneth Lee for such a great thread. I wish this wasn't in the Trading Journals section because this is definitely a trading system, with entries, stop loss, and take profits. This thread should be stickied on the FF home page. If you are looking for a "system" it's all here. It just takes a lot of work and discipline.

Someone in the eur/usd thread mentioned Ken, I searched on FF and found him, and am so glad I did. I trade this way (with a slight variation), and didn't know anyone else traded the way I did (no indicators, just S/D). I've found someone doing it, and he has such patience and knowledge, I would never be able to spend the time here explaining in detail the way the does.

Thanks again.
  • #5,183
  • Mar 22, 2013 1:36am Mar 22, 2013 1:36am
Here, Here.

Jim
  • #5,184
  • Mar 22, 2013 3:09am Mar 22, 2013 3:09am
Quoting TraderinSD
Anyone catch the short on the EU today.. Look at the 5M.. We had 2.. The first was at 2929 area for about 30 pips plus.. The second short was at the 2940 area for another 30 pip plus move short...Text book trades with the larger trend showing short.

I was not at my screen to take these trades

TSD
I don't trade the 5M as spread eats way too much into it, but how do you figure 1.2929? I see something resembling a base for 1.2940 (would have to look at shorter frames to double check that, because on the 5 it still looks like a spike with no base - nothing to the left though), but the zone you're using for 1.2929 looks exactly like a pivot that we had coming off of the earlier trade.
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  • #5,185
  • Mar 22, 2013 6:07am Mar 22, 2013 6:07am



Here is a screen shot of a post on skype to my sister yesterday note the time and correlate it to the chart. oz had touched a 4hr and daily level , it of course was a deep level si this is what i suggested to her to try and join the move ..
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #5,186
  • Mar 22, 2013 6:09am Mar 22, 2013 6:09am
strange how the png chart shows in the text reply window but then doesn't end up on the reply. wish it did ..
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #5,187
  • Mar 22, 2013 6:21am Mar 22, 2013 6:21am
4hr and daily views
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #5,188
  • Mar 22, 2013 5:14pm Mar 22, 2013 5:14pm
Quoting Kanzler
I don't trade the 5M as spread eats way too much into it, but how do you figure 1.2929? I see something resembling a base for 1.2940 (would have to look at shorter frames to double check that, because on the 5 it still looks like a spike with no base - nothing to the left though), but the zone you're using for 1.2929 looks exactly like a pivot that we had coming off of the earlier trade.


The 2929 area I chose was due to the very strong move short from that level previously. We had a 40 plus pip drop within the 5M TF (relative to the TF of course) IMHO this was an area worth taking as the preceding down move indicated the importance of this area... If you look left at the 2926 area you will see were price had previously entered into a larger Supply area... (Yes, this is not the classic definition) but I would argue we should not ignore...
Here is my reasoning:

1) Previous move away from the area was very strong.

2) We had a touch and clear reject at the 2926 level (again not the classic)with a strong rejection candle.

3) Upon the next entry into 2929 we had you classic KL (price penetrated deeper into the level a second time... looking at the entire area)

4) Clear rejection of this level with a very strong move short.. Waiting for clear rejection would have given confidence to take this short

5) We are trading with the trend = Down

6) Looking left we have a Support/Resistance area along the 2929 level... I am of the belief we should not ignore these S/R areas when they present themselves in this manner. Especially when they coincide with a Supply/Demand area..Looking left on the 5M you will see how price maintained this area. You can go back the 18th and see how price moved around this 2929 area...An additional odds enhancer if you will.

I'll take the spread if I am able to manage this kind of move. Of course we do not know we will get this kind of move short when we enter.. My target would have been 2892 as this seemed to most logical...Why you might ask? I believe that price moves between S/D and S/R ( make no mistake they are different ) but that how I see PA and we Support with rejection at this level

Just my take
TSD
  • #5,189
  • Mar 23, 2013 4:58am Mar 23, 2013 4:58am
Hi Kenneth, I have a few questions (out of curiosity) for you if you don't mind.
Also for TraderinSD since you two are the most active posters here.

After almost 2 years of trading this way,

1 What are you considerations about this method?
2. Would you ever change the way you trade now?
3. How difficult is it to trust your zones?
4. How long would it take for a newbie to master?
5. What hitratio do you have ?

I just love the simplicity of S&D trading.

Thanks
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #5,190
  • Mar 24, 2013 5:44pm Mar 24, 2013 5:44pm
chart
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #5,191
  • Edited 10:05pm Mar 24, 2013 7:22pm | Edited 10:05pm
Kenneth, I noticed in some of your posts that you'll "almost always take a trade off of the 4 hour charts" - have you found them to be more reliable than faster charts in general?

Quoting TraderinSD
The 2929 area I chose was due to the very strong move short from that level previously. We had a 40 plus pip drop within the 5M TF (relative to the TF of course) IMHO this was an area worth taking as the preceding down move indicated the importance of this area... If you look left at the 2926 area you will see were price had previously entered into a larger Supply area... (Yes, this is not the classic definition) but I would argue we should not ignore...
Here is my reasoning:...
I appreciate the reply outlining your rationale, that explains what I was missing.
  • #5,192
  • Mar 25, 2013 5:01am Mar 25, 2013 5:01am
Quoting hornet
Hi Kenneth, I have a few questions (out of curiosity) for you if you don't mind.
Also for TraderinSD since you two are the most active posters here.

After almost 2 years of trading this way,

1 What are you considerations about this method?
2. Would you ever change the way you trade now?
3. How difficult is it to trust your zones?
4. How long would it take for a newbie to master?
5. What hit ratio do you have ?

I just love the simplicity of S&D trading.

Thanks
This is the second request in the last few weeks of this type ,, Think it was Lou that asked before.


After almost 2 years of trading this way,

1 What are you considerations about this method?

Our life's are a total of all the experience's we have had up to this point, Our actions and reactions are based off the emotional response we have had to external force's in the past. As a child we touched fire the first time not knowing it is hot, we learned quickly that it was and is to be avoided. In my own history of life I have decided by the information I have gleaned that "The more complicated I think something is the simpler it really is in reality"

That premises has been my guiding star throughout my life as a aspiring trader. Almost from the beginning I have been on the correct path. Trying to see Price Action. Not Price Reaction.


2. Would you ever change the way you trade now?

Absolutely, Never think that the rules will not change at some point, The movers of all markets are always looking at ways to drive the masses like cattle or sheep. The proof is in the endless supply of stupid commentary coming from the in the know news media. That statement should read "The in the pocket news media" It is this deviation from common sense that fails us all at most of the major critical times of our life's. The fact that all media is nothing more than marketing and that they are owned by the richest in the land is basic knowledge, would you not use that venue to your advantage? if it was yours to toy with.

So that being said it is easy to see that trading is a moving target at best. But your total understanding of basic movement and learning what the majority of traders think as possibilities is your task at hand. I have learned a lot of different trading ideas. I know the ones that a majority of players see as important. This is the advantage and the holy grail of trading, the big players use nothing more than this knowledge to seperate money from the uneducated. It is this reason alone that the first goal of any new trader should be to lose less, than to find a perfect entry. Because we are the sheep avoiding the wolves, learn the avoidance techniques first. Then you can learn to run with the pack.

A couple of post ahead someone asks about 4 hr levels. Longer term traders like investors use those longer charts to make choices so yes they carry more power , But it is hard for some to distinguish the risk from one time frame to the other and is a factor. But it is the total immersion of this market that is key , to blindly ignore facts such as weekly ,daily and 4 hr charts just because you trade faster one's is a folly and will lead to certain death and destruction.

Most are trying this to become full time traders so to not track the information freely given on your charts and seeing the co-relationship between them is foolish. People are always looking for the relationship between pairs or news events but forget or ignore the most basic one of all.

3. How difficult is it to trust your zones?

The levels I decide on I trust wholeheartedly, But that being said it is my ability and trust in myself that is the key. I continually say that all I am trying to do is teach people to see. It is all there. It is your desire to learn to translate this new language that is the deciding factor, and in truth that is what this is. Like any language we can't make heads or tails of it until we start understanding a few basic words then phrases, then only with that does the emotions and gestures start to make sense and you can become fully immersed in a new society and that is your goal to join the society of traders at large using a common language. it is the ability of the individual to take information and adapt it to their own way of interpretation that is key trying to force yourselves into seeing what you neither understand or can't see is like leading a blind person. they may trust you to lead them down a unknown path , but let them to their own devices and they will stumble and fall.

But basics. I trust when a trend is turning that shallow pullbacks into minor levels will hold. I know that when the market goes quite between sessions that it will consolidate making triangles flags and wedges all being trade able using supply and demand.
I know that major areas on a chart will produce some reaction major fib levels, big numbers, fading zeros . It is knowing when to hold and when to grasp the small change that is the education. Then add the fact of trend and you start to see the total package of my trading.

4. How long would it take for a newbie to master?

As long as it takes , It is in the desire that the answer lays, if you start on the right path not varying the motto "Plan the trade , trade the Plan" it is not that long. the problem is everyone is looking for instant gratification and like most anything else you have used that thought for, it is short lived and tends to lead you down the wrong path. Key to trading and one i still struggle with is the fact you have to be humble and accept the fact you are going to be wrong take the lump and move on . that is the one single stumbling block of all traders. It may sound arrogant but I choose to many good trades so when I take one that is wrong, at times I try and force it to become a winner , Then when that works I have just reenforced a losers habit. This is the basis of most of the traders you see on this forums . they know how to trade , hell trading is easy, it is the control that is hard then throw in the fact they most will not even or can't even see that it is them that is the problem. So they jump from strategy to strategy searching for some way they can be taken out of the equation, Finding temporary satisfaction from time to time. But ultimately they get in their own way and start failing again and "damn if that trading idea aint flawed like all the rest"..

5. What hit ratio do you have ?

To high. Not because i am so good but because i probably over trade took over 25 or 30 trades last week , lost one for 11 pips made over 250 had a few Break Evens or a pip or two. but had many that could have gotten me, double or triple my gains. THis is the reason i use the 30 min chart, To improve my Take profit targets and it does work for me. I see what the other guys using fast charts are seeing but i can see that as price moves on my 30 min. That is Price action . but if i start to just focus on fast levels we get into that tunnel vision issue again. My goal is to get enough equity to lose the feeling of need and the desire to take every small trade.

I just love the simplicity of S&D trading.

Yes as you see if you read this thread it works on all time frames but it is the picking of the quality levels that is the issue to over come. if they aren't jumping off the page at you pass and just take the ones that are clear to you. The use of S/D levels in combination with any trading idea should improve your trading entries as they are spot on where interest lies.

Cheers and great trading to you all. Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #5,193
  • Mar 25, 2013 5:28am Mar 25, 2013 5:28am
Ken,

just wanted to say thanks for your answers and the great teachings you are sharing with us...

All the best,
Michael
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #5,194
  • Mar 25, 2013 7:18am Mar 25, 2013 7:18am
chart
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #5,195
  • Mar 25, 2013 9:06am Mar 25, 2013 9:06am
Hello Kenneth and other Supply Demand guru's

Thanks you for this tread, very informative and it help me to have a better understanding of the power and forces that drive a market

I got 2 questions, hope some of you could explain it in a way I can understand it

Swap level
- What is a "swap " bar or region? I never head Same Seiden explaining that, Any link?
- What should I look or do at these level
- I think I understand how to recognize them, but few examples would be appreciated


Trade management

In rules 8 of the document : BS Trading.pdf page 32

8.Once you have entered make sure your Limit stop
and tp are correct if your stop is inside your level
move it now. But never again.

- Is it possible to have that clarify. Where does the stop should be move


Any help or info appreciated

Martin
  • #5,196
  • Mar 25, 2013 9:25am Mar 25, 2013 9:25am
ken,

when you have the time, could you have a look at these zones and tell me which are not really tradable zones and why ?
also, have I missed any ?

Thanks
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The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #5,197
  • Edited 12:47pm Mar 25, 2013 12:05pm | Edited 12:47pm
Quoting Kenneth Lee
chart
Easy peasy.

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Quoting arjfca
Hello Kenneth and other Supply Demand guru's

Thanks you for this tread, very informative and it help me to have a better understanding of the power and forces that drive a market

I got 2 questions, hope some of you could explain it in a way I can understand it

Swap level
- What is a "swap " bar or region? I never head Same Seiden explaining that, Any link?
- What should I look or do at these level
- I think I understand how to recognize them, but few examples would be appreciated
There should be an explanation in the PDF at the start of the thread. But from what I understand you should look for a new supply or demand zone around that swap level to enter on. Dial down to smaller time frames if necessary to find them....Ken seems to take spinning tops and other doji type candles as a larger time frame confirmation that that is where the level is though (if you dial down you'll see the zone more clearly, it just looks like a doji at higher frames).
  • #5,198
  • Mar 25, 2013 4:31pm Mar 25, 2013 4:31pm
Quoting hornet
Hi Kenneth, I have a few questions (out of curiosity) for you if you don't mind.
Also for TraderinSD since you two are the most active posters here.

After almost 2 years of trading this way,

1 What are you considerations about this method?
2. Would you ever change the way you trade now?
3. How difficult is it to trust your zones?
4. How long would it take for a newbie to master?
5. What hitratio do you have ?

I just love the simplicity of S&D trading.

Thanks

1. What are you considerations aboutthis method?

Trading S/Dlevels is how price moves. It will allow you to trade trend and range in all time frames. Other methods/systems tend to trade one or the other. It is my belief that price moves between Supply/Demandand Support/Resistance (they are not the same). What isactually happening? You are seeing the Smart Money, the WHY behind the move.


2. Would you ever change the way youtrade now?

I did notstart out trading this way back in 99’, wish I had. It would have saved me 10’sof 1000’s of dollars made and lost. Looking to the bright side I have gainedmore than I have lost. If the SM’s figure out a different way to trade then Iwill need to change but at this point no. Additionally, if that were to happen,IMHO, the way we see charts today, would radically change. It is the visualrepresentation that makes it so apparent.


3. How difficult is it to trust yourzones?

This is aninteresting question. We can view a level in one of two ways. We can look forabsolutes ( many traders do this ) or we can think in term of probabilities (this is the correct way of thinking in my opinion) We are not brought up tothink in terms of probabilities but more of absolutes, right and wrong, yes andno. Yes, I trust my levels as there is a high probability they are correctbased on how I view them. I am an aggressive trader so thinking in terms of probabilitiesis required.


4. How long would it take for a newbieto master?

We all learn at a different pace.We all see the market a bit differently. The mechanics, the pattern will becomevery apparent in a reasonably short time. The more difficult task is the needfor you to rewire your thinking. All traders must do this in order to become consistent.


5. What hit ratio do you have?

About 70% ...I am an aggressive trader.


TSD
  • #5,199
  • Mar 25, 2013 9:40pm Mar 25, 2013 9:40pm
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Looking for price to retrace into this Resistance now turned Support. This is not classic KL trading but one cannot discount these area when they have confluence with Supply/Demand levels.

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Higher TF view of the Counter Trend to a Demand level on the 4HR 94.07 to 93.86. We were looking to get short to trade into this level. I have mentioned in the past that these levels tend to act like price magnets. IMHO these can be high probability trades. Also notice that we have a series of Lower Highs indicating strength to this Counter Trend move into our Demand Level. We did have a touch at the 94.07 on the 17th. We should ?? also see a deeper move into this level ala KL.

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We took this short with 2 lots. Each lot had a 15 pip SL. First target was 94.52. The second target was 94.32. We had the SM's active into our Supply Level with clear rejection on good volume. Look at the preceding volume in context. Volume was significantly higher than the previous 13 periods prior to the SM's taking price up and out of the Base into Supply.

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We did have a retrace back up into Supply but we still maintained HL's so we stayed in. This was test of Demand ( ultimately.. no demand/rejection volume ) Look at this last move into Supply compared to the previous up moves by the SM's. This move was significantly weaker.

Price finally made its move toward and into the 4Hr Demand Level. We see price move a bit farther past the level. One could make the statement that price touched the top of a Daily Demand at 93.51-52. ( not the classic definition per KL ) A confluence of levels. I chose the 4HR level for my target as the level was more obvious on the 4HR

Total pipage for the 2 positions 80 pips

Good trading

TSD
  • #5,200
  • Mar 25, 2013 10:56pm Mar 25, 2013 10:56pm
Awesome thread, with clear and concise explanation + screenshots on each trade.

Learning a great deal from here. Keep it rolling guys
Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
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