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Trading EURUSD only

  • #39,441
  • Mar 23, 2013 4:29pm Mar 23, 2013 4:29pm
Morning from NZ

Yeah ended up doing a heap off pending orders

EUR/US 1.29 long TP 1.30
EUR/US 1.30 short TP 1.29

Added a few more,trying to catch the dips an waves in the best spots

Fishing lines are set for green pips

Opening should be interesting

Good Luck Everybody
  • #39,442
  • Mar 23, 2013 4:54pm Mar 23, 2013 4:54pm
Quoting mok1one


"The Most Honest Three Minutes In Television History"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=XGa57az2VqY
This poignant theatrical take is formulaic. Step 1, tear down the present. Two; remember the good 'ol days. Three, inspire to return to the good 'ol days. I'm glad you liked the performance.
  • #39,443
  • Mar 23, 2013 4:58pm Mar 23, 2013 4:58pm
“Every half hour, new demands are made,” the official said.

Is this insane? With Greece, when they were pushing for time they could afford to do it. Now, Cyprus is facing a run on the banks if there's no deal. They could give them the darn 5.8 billion instead of using 300 to 400 billion to calm the markets if Cyprus leaves. This does not make sense to me.

Here's a twitter you can watch for news. lol, what a soap opera this is...
https://twitter.com/ekathimerini
  • #39,444
  • Mar 23, 2013 5:33pm Mar 23, 2013 5:33pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/24/bu...deal.html?_r=0

A separate tax of 4 percent would be assessed on uninsured deposits at all other banks, including the 26 foreign banks that operate in Cyprus.

Oh, OK. So, are the 26 foreign banks comfortable with this? Are the ECB and IMF "screwing" the rest of the world here?
  • #39,445
  • Mar 24, 2013 1:16am Mar 24, 2013 1:16am
I cant sleep so I am going to post the latest COT data. I appologize I cant find the data for the weeks between 3/13/2012 to 3/12/2013 but as this data builds we will see the position building happening more and more.

Euro Futures the Speculators (Big Dogs eg.. banks, hedge funds ect) 3/12/2013 - 3/19/2012 :

Increased 6122 short contracts

Increased 2586 long contracts

USD Futures the Speculators (Big Dogs eg.. banks, hedge funds ect) 3/12/2013 - 3/19/2012 :

Decreased 8506 short contracts

Increased 7512 long contracts

*** For the Large Speculators we can see that the USD LOGS are clearly dominant in the change of contracts during these 2 weeks***

EURO Futures the Commercial Contractors (Smart Money) 3/12/2013 - 3/19/2012 :

Decreased 10623 short contracts (Dominant)

Increased 320 long contracts

USD Futures the Commercial Contractors (Smart Money) 3/12/2013 - 3/19/2012 :

Increased 6122 short contracts

Decreased 2676 short contracts

*** For the Commercials we can see that the EURO SHORTS are clearly dominant in the change of contracts during these 2 weeks***

Indeed overall market is in favor of Shorting EURUSD. Right now we are just riding a bullish pullback. We may see another 100+ pips or so until the EURUSD Bears really kick back into gear.

Cheers
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR_3_19_2013.JPG Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDx_3_19_2013.JPG Size: 35 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Commitment of Traders_Updated_3_19_2013.xls   1.0 MB | 433 downloads
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #39,446
  • Mar 24, 2013 10:23am Mar 24, 2013 10:23am
Quoting goods
I cant sleep so I am going to post the latest COT data. I appologize I cant find the data for the weeks between 3/13/2012 to 3/12/2013 but as this data builds we will see the position building happening more and more.

Euro Futures the Speculators (Big Dogs eg.. banks, hedge funds ect) 3/12/2013 - 3/19/2012 :

Increased 6122 short contracts

Increased 2586 long contracts

[b]USD Futures the Speculators (Big Dogs eg.. banks, hedge funds ect)[u][color=Red] 3/12/2013...
Thanks Goods for the data and analysis. COT is always something to consider.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #39,447
  • Mar 24, 2013 12:01pm Mar 24, 2013 12:01pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Thanks Goods for the data and analysis. COT is always something to consider.

Thanks, from a smaller Time Frame of a trade we want to be in same direction of commercials (Hershey, Nabisco, Quaker ect...) they will create these pullbacks that will last about a week or so.

In the longer interem like trying to stay in a trade for months at a time we want to focus on the Large traders as they will wash out the waves created by these commercials).

Right now I will focus on what the Commercials are doing for my sake and ride this euro long out for about a week or so then take the overall momentum of the Large Big dog's and ultimately ride along the bear.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #39,448
  • Mar 24, 2013 1:28pm Mar 24, 2013 1:28pm
30 pips down... 1.2957
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #39,449
  • Mar 24, 2013 1:54pm Mar 24, 2013 1:54pm
Quoting goods
Thanks, from a smaller Time Frame of a trade we want to be in same direction of commercials (Hershey, Nabisco, Quaker ect...) they will create these pullbacks that will last about a week or so.

In the longer interem like trying to stay in a trade for months at a time we want to focus on the Large traders as they will wash out the waves created by these commercials).

Right now I will focus on what the Commercials are doing for my sake and ride this euro long out for about a week or so then take the overall momentum of the Large Big dog's and ultimately...
Have a look at the chart and you will see why the bullish pull back is about to happen, before the overall downtrend continues.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COT_CHART_EURUSD_DAILY_BUY_BUY_BUY.PNG Size: 71 KB
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #39,450
  • Mar 24, 2013 1:58pm Mar 24, 2013 1:58pm
nice work

thank you
Quoting goods
I cant sleep so I am going to post the latest COT data. I appologize I cant find the data for the weeks between 3/13/2012 to 3/12/2013 but as this data builds we will see the position building happening more and more.

Euro Futures the Speculators (Big Dogs eg.. banks, hedge funds ect) 3/12/2013 - 3/19/2012 :

Increased 6122 short contracts

Increased 2586 long contracts

[b]USD Futures the Speculators (Big Dogs eg.. banks, hedge funds ect)[u][color=Red]...
  • #39,451
  • Mar 24, 2013 2:03pm Mar 24, 2013 2:03pm
Weekly outlook:

W1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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D1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013_03_24_d1.gif Size: 28 KB



First weekly target is ~3037 which represents a fibo-line which showed validity in prior movements.
This is supported by the clear bounce off of the mayor 2855 support.

Once 3030´s are reached there are three reasonable scenarios imo:

1) breaking through fibonacci. This would lead to a strong upmove up to ~3271, where there are two overlaying fibo-lines of prior upmoves. However, EURO crisis might prevent a fast upmove from happening.

2) bounce off of ~3037 and retesting 2855 support.
This would seem "right" with cyprus in mind - nevertheless the outcome of eur/cyprus negotiations at the beginning of the week may put this into perspective...

3) uncertainty and the struggle of the two prior possibilities leads to a hectic ranging around 3037.


MY LINE: looking for a good entry long with target 3030-3037. From there I would leave a small runner (20% or some, SL BE) for option 1. If that one turns out to be a good one, I will look for a retrace back to 3037 and enlarge the existing runner. If not, I will wait for indication wheather it will end up with option 2 or 3;
If 2, I will aim for shorting with maximum target 2855.
If 3, it´ll be a calm week for me with maybe a few range-oriented scalps
  • #39,452
  • Mar 24, 2013 2:06pm Mar 24, 2013 2:06pm
TY goods. Especially for the explaination [on the chart].
I read the data and usually only get more confused.
ie Are they hedging etc etc
Quoting goods
Have a look at the chart and you will see why the bullish pull back is about to happen, before the overall downtrend continues.
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
  • #39,453
  • Mar 24, 2013 2:08pm Mar 24, 2013 2:08pm
Quoting goods
Have a look at the chart and you will see why the bullish pull back is about to happen, before the overall downtrend continues.

That would perfectly match my analysis I just posted. Could be a $$ week for us
Thx for the insight anyways!
  • #39,454
  • Mar 24, 2013 2:10pm Mar 24, 2013 2:10pm
Quoting Uturn2
TY goods. Especially for the explaination [on the chart].
I read the data and usually only get more confused.
ie Are they hedging etc etc
Right now Commercials are hedging and large traders ie, big banks, hedge funds are eliminating short positions yet there is still an immediate slight increase of short positions overall over the past couple weeks it is weak increases which indicates we will start seeing these short positions become less and less thus causing more buying once the large traders are done emptying their pockets of shorts and they might ride it up a bit more before they continue to short the overall downtrend.

Remember the name of the game is to buy low and sell high. These guys make the market so best to track and go with the flow.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #39,455
  • Mar 24, 2013 2:14pm Mar 24, 2013 2:14pm
Quoting luckyl
That would perfectly match my analysis I just posted. Could be a $$ week for us
Thx for the insight anyways!
Any time my friend. While the overall trend is down lets make money on this pullback shall we. I think we can remain long for a couple weeks. Hold the positions and let them ride.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #39,456
  • Mar 24, 2013 2:17pm Mar 24, 2013 2:17pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EURUSD:CUR
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: adsız.JPG Size: 93 KB
  • #39,457
  • Mar 24, 2013 2:20pm Mar 24, 2013 2:20pm
Quoting goods
Any time my friend. While the overall trend is down lets make money on this pullback shall we. I think we can remain long for a couple weeks. Hold the positions and let them ride.
Jep. Reaching "my" 3271 - fibo might well take the whole week´s time. If it isn´t delayed even longer due to cyprus s**t.
  • #39,458
  • Mar 24, 2013 2:40pm Mar 24, 2013 2:40pm
Quoting goods
Right now Commercials are hedging and large traders ie, big banks, hedge funds are eliminating short positions yet there is still an immediate slight increase of short positions overall over the past couple weeks it is weak increases which indicates we will start seeing these short positions become less and less thus causing more buying once the large traders are done emptying their pockets of shorts and they might ride it up a bit more before they continue to short the overall downtrend.

Remember the name of the game is to buy low and sell high....
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
  • #39,459
  • Mar 24, 2013 2:42pm Mar 24, 2013 2:42pm
1.2955 XE ATM
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
  • #39,460
  • Mar 24, 2013 2:46pm Mar 24, 2013 2:46pm
Quoting Uturn2
1.2955 XE ATM
An Open ~1.2960 >>= SHS Neckline [Dark Grey Line]
WLY Pivot ~1.2950 [and PA Zone]?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 130324_1H[1]EURUSD.png Size: 31 KB
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
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