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The next 2 weeks of trading action...

  • #21
  • Mar 13, 2013 6:59pm Mar 13, 2013 6:59pm
Quoting hayseed
usdjpy.... 94.5 - 96.0 ..... based on td sequential..... minimum 10 new trades over next 2 weeks..... all long...... 1440 and 240 charts below.......h

//-----

96 target hits
More than a hobby. Never a game. US Client at 1:50.
  • #22
  • Mar 18, 2013 10:20am Mar 18, 2013 10:20am
last year my longest stretch of wining trades was 444..... surpassed that number last week..... currently 479..... my all time record is much higher..... will break it this year..... each and every trade was/will be a gamble.......

but there is gambling and then there is Gambling..... the gaps have me overly cautious.....

until the cyprus weekend dust storm settles it will be hard for me to see or even to trust what i think i see....... so long term position trades only for me...... and few of those.....
//---

the first one that comes to mind is the usdcad..... my usdcad trades are long only..... it appears to be in a short term correction of a mid term uptrend and quite possible for the lower trendline to be touched.....

easy to see it at parity..... .98 would not concern me..... hard to see it at .96...... negative swap....h
//----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #23
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:04am Mar 18, 2013 11:04am
friday the audusd hit the .618 fib retracement..... it gapped down sunday and has all but recovered..... gaps usually close.....

no doubt last weeks employment news is still in traders minds today...... the rba is likely keeping an eye on the aussie mining forecast..... makes me wonder just what might be in their mind...... they control the purse strings......

march 4th pin bar should make any james16 follower proud........

easier to see it at 1.01 than 1.07.... minimum 20 new trades over next 2 weeks..... short only..... h

//----
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #24
  • Mar 18, 2013 12:36pm Mar 18, 2013 12:36pm
the nzdusd has been trying to get back above the 20 ma for almost a month..... currently at it now along with the 23.6 fib...... daily chart improving slightly..... weekly and monthly not so rosey.....

the 50 ma is approximately at .5 fib and next resistance .834...... nzd gdp due on 20th.......

easy to see it at .84 ..... .85 would not concern me.....

minimum 20 new trades over next 2 weeks..... 50 max..... all short...... negative swap..... slightly higher than normal risk......h
//----
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd 236 fib 1440.png Size: 76 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd 236 fib week.png Size: 71 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #25
  • Mar 20, 2013 10:45am Mar 20, 2013 10:45am
Quoting hayseed
the nzdusd has been trying to get back above the 20 ma for almost a month..... currently at it now along with the 23.6 fib...... daily chart improving slightly..... weekly and monthly not so rosey.....

the 50 ma is approximately at .5 fib and next resistance .834...... nzd gdp due on 20th.......

easy to see it at .84 ..... .85 would not concern me.....

minimum 20 new trades over next 2 weeks..... 50 max..... all short...... negative swap..... slightly higher than normal risk......h
//----
Bomb Bizzling HS

If you could describe your money management in one sentence. What would you say>?

Thanks in Advance
Time hides Nothing
  • #26
  • Mar 20, 2013 11:15am Mar 20, 2013 11:15am
Quoting CindyXXXX
If you could describe your money management in one sentence. What would you say>?
//---
//---


Quoting TheRealThing
money management doesn't have to be anything more than, "I will only risk 1/2% of my money on each trade regardless of other circumstances."
0.5% or less per trade....h

//---
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #27
  • Mar 20, 2013 11:21am Mar 20, 2013 11:21am
Quoting hayseed
//---
//---
Ya know Hayseed, in modern English; //--- //--- is not a real sentence ... Don't shoot the messenger I know first hand the brunt of those 2x4's


But thanks anyway,,, I'll get my translates onto it right away. Unfortunately they only know Chinese
Time hides Nothing
  • #28
  • Mar 20, 2013 3:40pm Mar 20, 2013 3:40pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
//--- //---
really expected more xxxxcitement out of bernake today...... maybe the nzd gdp will shake things up.... due out shortly.......

yeah.... //--- //--- it's a bad habit aquired by coding too much..... trying to break it..... but it's hard.....

another habit i'm tryin to break is callin Patience miss p....... seems she wants to be gender unkown....... that way she can fight it out on some of those real rough threads....... only later will the tough guys find out they got beatin up by a girl.......h
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #29
  • Mar 20, 2013 4:49pm Mar 20, 2013 4:49pm
Quoting hayseed
really expected more xxxxcitement out of bernake today...... maybe the nzd gdp will shake things up.... due out shortly.......

yeah.... //--- //--- it's a bad habit aquired by coding too much..... trying to break it..... but it's hard.....

another habit i'm tryin to break is callin Patience miss p....... seems she wants to be gender unkown....... that way she can fight it out on some of those real rough threads....... only later will the tough guys find out they got beatin up by a girl.......h
LOL !! Reading your posts is a great way to pass time. One might think that
you're still blowin' in the wind and stirring up pollen and allergies.

But I know you're one of the Greats. You never look at charts for more than
two minutes per day but have over 400 winning trades in a row and learned
to code with barely looking at a chart.

A feat only you could achieve. My hat goes off to YOU.

Love those pink candles........

Think I'll get me some of those

Regards
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #30
  • Mar 20, 2013 5:26pm Mar 20, 2013 5:26pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
have over 400 winning trades in a row
Love those pink candles........
hey slim.... 400.... that was sooooooo yesterday..... 593 now.... 800 by month end.....

those pink candles are for miss p's benefit......

no hayseed in his right mind would be caught using something pink....... hmmmmm.... on second thought...... maybe it has nothin to do with miss p at all...........

and for those that might laugh at my lot size and leverage, hold on...... next week that ea moves up to the big league...... you know, 50 cents a pip......h
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 593.png Size: 352 KB
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #31
  • Mar 20, 2013 5:45pm Mar 20, 2013 5:45pm
Quoting hayseed
hey slim.... 400.... that was sooooooo yesterday..... 593 now.... 800 by month end.....

those pink candles are for miss p's benefit......
Cool... like I said, you ARE amazing.

That's why it'll be fun to get inside your head.

Sorry that I've fallen so far behind.


No need to change the pink candles... think of them as a status symbol
The more green you make the more pink you get ??
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #32
  • Mar 21, 2013 9:27am Mar 21, 2013 9:27am
Quoting hayseed
the 50 ma is approximately at .5 fib and next resistance .834...... nzd gdp due on 20th.......

easy to see it at .84 ..... .85 would not concern me.....

minimum 20 new trades over next 2 weeks..... 50 max..... all short...... negative swap..... slightly higher than normal risk......h
//----
todays move put the nzdusd dead on the 50 sma and stopped just short of the .5 fib.....

aussie d plowed thru the .618 fib and is currently above the daily ichi......

short covering alone might send'em another 150 pips each.......

audcad, which is killin me, is within 100 pips of an 17 year high......

all negative swap..... all slightly higher than normal risk...... might be fixin to break that winnin streak.......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #33
  • Mar 21, 2013 12:39pm Mar 21, 2013 12:39pm
Quoting alex4xes
Silat50, thanks for the thread, here you go with analysis on market for coming week. I am pure price action trader & play with TL's & S/R zones. The blue lines are prediction of coming week & yellow lines are for next phase, which is subject to change with change in behaviour of price expectation (blue lines). I have already took those trades on late friday, usually I dont take trade on late friday, but I have descretion on price levels & felt the best price to take this trades will not come again on monday. But market is market & he is the boss,...
Your welcome Alex. Im very short the eur/gbp since today at the open. In fact I find myself short 6 different Euro pairs. This Cypress thing is going to leave people nervous for a long time to come. I dont think this is just a correction and the easy money may still be yet to be made. Once there is more talk of the euro splitting up or a couple of more countries piulling out, this thing will be below par with almost every other pair and definitely the USA. Short on all euro pairs for next 2 weeks!

I am also shocked that the news of the PM for austrailia is being treated as good news. Its a scandal. In america the market would have dropped 5-7% in one day on that news! This may be a fakeout yet but since today the big boys are loading up long, Ive switched my short to long at about break even and to me aNYONE playing that pair can just put their stop right under todays bar because if the AUD comes back into that base ,this was all a show! You can start looking to go short. AUD/USD will offer lots of opportunity either way in next two weeks!
  • #34
  • Mar 21, 2013 12:46pm Mar 21, 2013 12:46pm
LOOK AT MY OTHER POSTS ON THE OTHER BOARDS IF YOU WANT TO LEARN FROM A 15 YEAR VETERAN OF ALL MARKETS.

I dont claim to be an expert, but I havent worked a job in over 4 yrs and have been just trading and nothing else for 2. The problem all of you should know about is that when you get into my shoes, thats when you have the highest % of blowing up your account. Why? You start to get hit with reality. And that is, you can win money almost every month, but you cant make enough to BOTH pay all of your bills...AND keep adding to your trading account. IF YOU CANNOT DO THAT, YOU MUST GO BROKE EVENTUALLY.

Why do you think there are so mnay "experts" on this board showing us systems with 80% success rates and 200% annual returns? You think they are making a living doing it? Maybe 2 or 3 on the whole board can. But the rest of you would be too busy conferring with your staff that you had to hire to be writing 500 posts per month. Yes?
  • #35
  • Mar 21, 2013 1:15pm Mar 21, 2013 1:15pm
Well the advice that I've read about trading full-time has said that you should have a decent account to start with and funds to fall back on for a rainy day when you hit your periods of drawdown.

To even consider adding to your account is just an added burden (and stress) that is not needed.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #36
  • Mar 22, 2013 5:46am Mar 22, 2013 5:46am
S50, i can relate to that. When judging to go fulltime while ago there were several reasons I decided not to (me 18 yrs parttime)
- working 8 hrs day is much less stresfull and secure income stream. To get expected pl of pay for my line of work, I would have to trade sizes not comfortable with and swallow corresponding losses. I even could not guarantee positive every year based on results!!
- i found that shortterm trading not for me as it makes my immune system weak. Stress does the job. Working much healthier.

So, I decided better to have a job and swing trade which is what I like and am good at and feel no stress. I dedicated this year 1/3 of my pay as risk capital for large (in my world) trades to make it. 3 winners, it is done. Looking for 10x risk on each and aggresive size increases.

So far after 4 engagements this year 0.07 risk down.
  • #37
  • Mar 24, 2013 7:18am Mar 24, 2013 7:18am
here is my view for the week :

looking for upside on AUD, upside on equities, upside gold. Cyprus thing is getting really boring. Seem the whole thing designed to unsettle savers in eu and wider to spend money instead of keeping in a bank. Fighting Great depression and associated psychology right now not that successfull. Keep in mind that the whole thing has around 25-30 yrs to run, so we see now still early stages. With active interference of reserve banks with printing money and other stuff, it may turn out in unexpected ways.

I am not in position right now but if get signal along the lines with above will load max size, else (much) smaller.
  • #38
  • Apr 2, 2013 12:14am Apr 2, 2013 12:14am
Quoting seaman2
S50, i can relate to that. When judging to go fulltime while ago there were several reasons I decided not to (me 18 yrs parttime) - working 8 hrs day is much less stresfull and secure income stream. To get expected pl of pay for my line of work, I would have to trade sizes not comfortable with and swallow corresponding losses. I even could not guarantee positive every year based on results!! - i found that shortterm trading not for me as it makes my immune system weak. Stress does the job. Working much healthier. So, I decided better to have a job...
Seaman ,what a great paragraph. I too wrestle with just trading as my main goal in life and while I am doing it now, I see that for most without a very large bankroll, trading when your life depends on it, DOES weaken your immune system AND your nervous system. As a former las vegas dealer and poker player I can say only this: When I look back at people with intellect and discipline enough to either be a professional gambler, poker player, trader or anything where money swings back and forth, in the end I find.....most of us would have made more money with 10x less stress if we just used our cleverness to start a business or contribute something to the world. Think of this...The greatest trader in the world, when he dies, the world loses nothing because of it!

That has always bothered me. Traders are glamorized in life, and except for the few like Livermore and Bernard Baruch, they are forgotten like yesterdays news the day after they die. It is why I have the twin goal of making a lot of money to start a foundation to empower women in 3rd world countries to become politically active and use birth control, so my trading results will go on long after my body does not. Plus like I tell the newbies...you only need 1 losing year and even a million dollar a year trader will likely be finished because your expenses(especially if you have wife and kids)will eat you up!i SUGGEST THOSE OF YOU WHO WANT TO KNOW MORE TO CLICK ON MY NAME...and look up my articles on the subject. My 15 yrs in the trenches has shown me a lot of blood and guts. I am not saying trading will hurt you, just that it hurts most people because money and recognition are their primary motivators. It should be fun! If you love to trade, you cant lose. Sadly, 5 yrs ago I met a trader who came on as a guest in our chat room to moderate the futures stock indeses for us and make live calls. He was so good the moderator let him take his place anytime he desired! And the trader did it just out of boredom. His words, and I quote........"People think trading is fun? Its not fun. What can be fun about knowing exactly what you are going to do at every turn in the road. Trading to me is like flipping burgers at McDonalds. You just know when to put them on the grill, when to flip them over, and when to take them off. You dont even think about it. That's fun?" He put his whole life into trading that when it became so easy for him to day trade, he had nothing left inside to enjoy the game, the money or anything else. How sad. So terribly sad. Here is my instant test to see if trading is really for you: Ask yourself:

If I couldnt ever trade, but I knew I could be successful at anything else...what would I choose instead of trading? Then sit down for about a week, with a notebook and pen, and decide which you really want to be doing when you turn 80 years old!

Look at that hedge fund guy who went from nothing, to a wall street pit runner to a private trader to running a billion dollar fund and then in one year it was ALL gone!!! And he was a very wise,conservative guy in his 50's! And the guy who blew up the Bearings Bank of London in the 90's wasnt it, does anyone remember his name? Wow...the biggest bank loss in trading in history and none of us remember that guys name. So who will remember us,then? OK, ONTO THIS WEEKS FORECAST!
  • #39
  • Apr 2, 2013 12:34am Apr 2, 2013 12:34am
Look at me, I started this thread and asked for only short posts and I went running off. Sorry guys. But somewhere out there is a friend who needs to read that post. Ok...this week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...................


I believe the NZD/USD BREAKOUT ON THE HOURLY GIVES LONGS A VERY LOW RISK ENTRY AT 8402 with maybe a 20 pip stop on the long side. Exit? Ahhhhh, thats your problem. -)

FAVORITE PLAYS OF THE WEEK: AUD/NZD short @12460. Look at that weekly chart and it gives away a big secret. That the daily has just been cvatching his breath. If you get stopped look for a re-entry nexct day or next week. This puppy is in a 2yr down trend!!!!! I find using a break under the 72 ema on the hourly as a good entry spot for the daily trader. Place your stop far away from where the mm's can see it but in your head Id use the previous 2 days or pivot high. Or stay with a break of the 72ema if you get a retrace of more than one full candle on the daily. This blends a daily and an hrly system together for fabulous results if you know how to be patient. PM me for more details if interested.

#2-Im also short anything and everything with EUR in it. My flagship trade of the month so far is the EUR/NZD short. Why? The eur/usd doesnt work as well anymore on straight euro weakness because the US stock market seems to be running inverse to the dollar which is insane! Now the euro seems to be going up when the equity markets rally. I dont want to be tied to thnat ,do you? I need to worry about 2 markets to win my trade? To hell with that. Plus the nzd is strong against all currencies now and is in multi month and sometimes multi year trends!!!!! Im short the EURO AGAINST THE aud,CAD and now for a toe in the water trade, the JPY.

I WONDER WHEN THE YEN IS GOING TO ACTUALLY TAKE A DIRECTION. LOOK AT IT ON THE WEEKLY AND IT BLOWS ME AWAY. ITS HARDLY GONE DOWN AT ALL. THE TREND IS STILL STRONGLY UP. Yet the daily is offering the most daring of us the opportunity of a lifetime if it is exhausted...........to short it. But theyve taken the short's money like they were fools, not even a 3 bar retracement to let us get in long, and nothing but small exhaustive bars up to say "Im almost done, short me." iTS AS IF IT WAS PLANNED! Been fakeouts for months already. Put one toe in at a time. Meaning if you like the jpy short, invest like a mutual fund. Get in, in increments.


I THINK MOST OF THE ACTION TILL SUMMER IS NOT GOING TO BE IN THE USD PAIRS BUT MORE THE AUD-EUR-NZD pairs.
  • #40
  • Apr 2, 2013 1:09am Apr 2, 2013 1:09am
I
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