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vsa with Malcolm

  • #23,781
  • Mar 19, 2013 2:24am Mar 19, 2013 2:24am
Quoting SimpleDev
So I have been trying to figure out what this post means to me for the past couple days. I get the point of your post, not to be biased, trade the market as it unfolds and rely on your winners to run so that they out weigh your losses.
.
I agree with you SimpleDev. For a couple of months I was trying to take trades only based on my trading plan, but in last few weeks I was shifting my rules to the one or the other side. This HG post was like wake up call to stop and rethink everything =)
  • #23,782
  • Mar 19, 2013 2:29am Mar 19, 2013 2:29am
Quoting gez40
views?
4h time frame, hard to see volume on this but I think yes, when checking 1h, but since vol is not really big i think this down move won't take too long (of course we do not know what's gonna happen with cyprus )
  • #23,783
  • Mar 19, 2013 2:58am Mar 19, 2013 2:58am
Quoting Cholia
I agree with you SimpleDev. For a couple of months I was trying to take trades only based on my trading plan, but in last few weeks I was shifting my rules to the one or the other side. This HG post was like wake up call to stop and rethink everything =)
Cholia, just want to comment that it happened to me too. I was having a very, very good period with my approach(VSA and market structure) when, suddenly, I wanted to try other things to catch more profits, etc. Pure stupid greed.
And the result was an streak of loosing trades that only served to put a big draw down on my psychological capital.
Now I am recouping and reading this thread again and participating a bit, is helping me.

Let's keep the consistency to our plans and approaches!

Cheers!
  • #23,784
  • Mar 19, 2013 2:59am Mar 19, 2013 2:59am
Quoting SimpleDev
1st chart.. Yesterday was another straight forward day. I took a short on UCHF just because I thought it looked like a better setup but was only able to get a partial profit, so I will post the EU chart as to it actually made a better run.


EU was hit with a surge in volume on a down bar pre Asia, and when London came around a shake out for entry.

2nd chart is a look at today, for me personally I will be sitting this one out. US looks as if there was a lot of selling but Asia ended up buying. I think sellers are more in control, but...
Hi SimpleDev,
Can you put, briefly and if you have time, some guidelines on how you use the activity on each session to have an idea on what is more likely to happens in the next session?

Thank you.
  • #23,785
  • Mar 19, 2013 3:27am Mar 19, 2013 3:27am
Quoting joaoborras
Hi SimpleDev,
Can you put, briefly and if you have time, some guidelines on how you use the activity on each session to have an idea on what is more likely to happens in the next session?

Thank you.
Before the answer, my takes on sessions are:
1. usually, asian session is used for accumulation and will keep in a tight range
2. usually, London will make the high / low for the day
3. usually(again...) NY will make the low / high for the day and finish the day back into the range, mainly during London close time.

Appreciate comments on that, as I think it is very important to understand what each session is doing.

Thanks!
  • #23,786
  • Mar 19, 2013 5:09am Mar 19, 2013 5:09am
Maybe this Cyprus-thing is: "buy bad news".
  • #23,787
  • Mar 19, 2013 10:07pm Mar 19, 2013 10:07pm
Quoting joaoborras
Before the answer, my takes on sessions are:
1. usually, asian session is used for accumulation and will keep in a tight range
2. usually, London will make the high / low for the day
3. usually(again...) NY will make the low / high for the day and finish the day back into the range, mainly during London close time.

Appreciate comments on that, as I think it is very important to understand what each session is doing.

Thanks!

You are back to your preconceptions, preconceptions and placing rules on the market that it must follow will only hold you back, limit your potential. VSA is only about following the big money, which that means that we do not have to understand market mechanics, structure etc.. We are only concerned about is figuring out what the big money is doing.

When I look at previous sessions I am only looking for surges in volume. The surges in volume tell me what the professionals are doing. Yesterday as example. US sessions had 3 spikes in volume all on up bars, so that means that 3 different times big money sold. Then looking at Asia, Asia bought, which means one of two things. Either one, whoever bought in Asia is going to loose money or two that demand is going to try to overcome supply.

The odds are in favor that demand is going to try to overcome supply, which in turn means that the market for the next session is going to be choppy. Choppy days can be difficult to trade and I am an advocate of waiting for obvious easy setups.
  • #23,788
  • Mar 19, 2013 10:18pm Mar 19, 2013 10:18pm
Quoting SimpleDev
You are back to your preconceptions, preconceptions and placing rules on the market that it must follow will only hold you back, limit your potential. VSA is only about following the big money, which that means that we do not have to understand market mechanics, structure etc.. We are only concerned about is figuring out what the big money is doing.

When I look at previous sessions I am only looking for surges in volume. The surges in volume tell me what the professionals are doing. Yesterday as example. US sessions had 3 spikes in volume all...
Hi SimpleDev. Thank you very much for your comments, I really appreciate that. Mainly the part about preconceptions. I admit it. Even I consider myself a VSAer, time to time I go back to such preconceptions and, as you said, it is when I have losses and lose my psychological capital.
Thanks to remember me that.

About what you look for in the sessions, it is great insight as well. As you cited from Tom Williams, you are looking for the SM agreement.
Good, I will take it to my toolbox.

Again, thanks a lot.
Cheers!
  • #23,789
  • Mar 20, 2013 1:40am Mar 20, 2013 1:40am
So here is my thing, this thread is loaded with examples of when to trade, not soo much on when not to trade.

Lets look at today

The previous US session was hit with some stopping volume (marked in yellow) the volume is much higher than the day before.
But this bar I marked in red is suspect (in reality this bar probably was suppose to close down which would indicate strength, but didn't make it) but still this bar leaves room for doubt. To me this should be another day left un-traded, odds are London will probably make a run to 2930, but for me it's not worth the risk.

Liam/HG/anyone else... whats your take?
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  • #23,790
  • Mar 20, 2013 1:57am Mar 20, 2013 1:57am
Quoting SimpleDev
So here is my thing, this thread is loaded with examples of when to trade, not soo much on when not to trade.

Lets look at today

The previous US session was hit with some stopping volume (marked in yellow) the volume is much higher than the day before.
But this bar I marked in red is suspect (in reality this bar probably was suppose to close down which would indicate strength, but didn't make it) but still this bar leaves room for doubt. To me this should be another day left un-traded, odds are London will probably make a run...
My readings on this one: http://screencast.com/t/0iodoiFW
  • #23,791
  • Mar 20, 2013 3:32am Mar 20, 2013 3:32am
Quoting joaoborras
My readings on this one: http://screencast.com/t/0iodoiFW
Great analysis.
  • #23,792
  • Mar 20, 2013 4:50am Mar 20, 2013 4:50am
Quoting joaoborras
My readings on this one: http://screencast.com/t/0iodoiFW
Nice..

Especially the 2 bar, what you said makes sense. I tend to stay away from 2 bars.
  • #23,793
  • Mar 20, 2013 12:21pm Mar 20, 2013 12:21pm
Quoting SimpleDev

But this bar I marked in red is suspect (in reality this bar probably was suppose to close down which would indicate strength, but didn't make it)

Liam/HG/anyone else... whats your take?
The more I look at your charts and commentary the more it seems that you don't need any input from us! But, the line above caught my attention. If that bar had closed down I would still have looked at it as weakness. A trap up move to be precise.

Are you looking at the charts in a black and white fashion? By this I mean down bar + high volume = strength and up bar + high volume = weakness? I'm intrigued as to why you'd have called that strength if it had been a down bar. Not criticising, just wondering what your thought process is.

I actually took a long earlier, I won't bore people with the PnF details, but my entry was 2920 and i've moved to BE now. FOMC will either take me out or bring me some nice profit.
  • #23,794
  • Mar 20, 2013 7:56pm Mar 20, 2013 7:56pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
The more I look at your charts and commentary the more it seems that you don't need any input from us! But, the line above caught my attention. If that bar had closed down I would still have looked at it as weakness. A trap up move to be precise.

Are you looking at the charts in a black and white fashion? By this I mean down bar + high volume = strength and up bar + high volume = weakness? I'm intrigued as to why you'd have called that strength if it had been a down bar. Not criticising, just wondering what your thought process is.

I actually...
Its always good to have different perspectives, besides you're a great analyst wanted to see what you thought about the situation.

Yea I suppose I am moving to a black and white perspective, I have been watching a ton of TG videos for the past few months. I've seen a multiple videos where what I would call a massive SO, Tom Williams calls a buying climax.

Either way the background was questionable, I choose sit it out (too bad was a nice run!). Good job on your trade!
  • #23,795
  • Mar 21, 2013 5:07am Mar 21, 2013 5:07am
Quoting SimpleDev
Its always good to have different perspectives, besides you're a great analyst wanted to see what you thought about the situation.

Yea I suppose I am moving to a black and white perspective, I have been watching a ton of TG videos for the past few months. I've seen a multiple videos where what I would call a massive SO, Tom Williams calls a buying climax.

Either way the background was questionable, I choose sit it out (too bad was a nice run!). Good job on your trade!
It actually ended up as a small loss as it come back down this morning and slipped for -8 pips. Worst slippage i've had in a while. That or I put my stop in the wrong place

Looking at it now, i'm not entirely sure why I didn't close it. FOMC looks very weak. There was a 50% at 2956 that we didn't close above. The zone comes from Wednesday 13th 1hr chart.
  • #23,796
  • Mar 21, 2013 5:19am Mar 21, 2013 5:19am
Quoting KinsaleForex
It actually ended up as a small loss as it come back down this morning and slipped for -8 pips. Worst slippage i've had in a while. That or I put my stop in the wrong place

Looking at it now, i'm not entirely sure why I didn't close it. FOMC looks very weak. There was a 50% at 2956 that we didn't close above. The zone comes from Wednesday 13th 1hr chart.
We are in a weird place ATM, 2 bar on daily which makes EU look bullish, but it was pretty bearish on intra-day. I took a short on EU and posted an after the fact chart in the private forum.. trying to stop making calls.
  • #23,797
  • Mar 21, 2013 7:24am Mar 21, 2013 7:24am
is an End of Rising Market exact opposite of a Bag Holding?

thank you
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #23,798
  • Mar 21, 2013 1:10pm Mar 21, 2013 1:10pm
Beautiful supply bar but where would you short this guys? Be honest, hindsight is a wonderful thing i know but i would love to see your entries.
I`m fed up with calling trades right but entering to soon and getting stopped out, twice this week!
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Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #23,799
  • Mar 21, 2013 8:12pm Mar 21, 2013 8:12pm
Quoting Vcv13
is an End of Rising Market exact opposite of a Bag Holding?

thank you
Yes..You may want to read Master the Markets a few times..

http://www.tradeguider.com/mtm_251058.pdf
  • #23,800
  • Mar 21, 2013 8:23pm Mar 21, 2013 8:23pm
Quoting gez40
Beautiful supply bar but where would you short this guys? Be honest, hindsight is a wonderful thing i know but i would love to see your entries.
I`m fed up with calling trades right but entering to soon and getting stopped out, twice this week!
Yup, if you see it enough times in hindsight you will start to see it in real time.

Massive supply hits UJ in US session, price drifts up to see an UT. A few hours later as price tries to push through the area of the UT it does on very low volume showing no one is interested in pushing price higher. We see price come down showing results after effort to sell. Entry off an UT about 45 minutes after London opens.

Wait for those setups that you have complete confidence in so you can give your stop loss some room in case if you don't enter in at the best price.
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