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Higher low, lower high system

  • #6,181
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:42pm Mar 18, 2013 11:42pm
EUR GU EJ 19 Mar

EUR - Positive D close to close the gap to Fri's lows, still below RSI 50 level. 4hr is still on lower high after the gap closed price went sideways, 50% retrace, still below RSI 50 level. No bias can go either way today.

GU - D closed a small range doji. 4hr has now formed a lower high. A base has formed around 1.5070 and on the upside W M3 at 1.5143 and the recent high just above. No bias can go either way.

EJ - Positive D close to fill the gap. We are at W M2/last weeks lows/62% retrace. After a D close like yesterday view would normally be bias up but in view of the above we could easily react lower.
  • #6,182
  • Mar 19, 2013 3:20am Mar 19, 2013 3:20am
Mrs V sold the EJ lower high, waited for low of hammer to clear, entry 123.43. I said sell the lh at 123.53, she chickened out, could be the diff between BE and a loss when pa is ranging.
  • #6,183
  • Edited 12:12pm Mar 19, 2013 11:13am | Edited 12:12pm
Quite late in the day so trying to forgive myself for closing this one out too early.

1 hr engulfing negative close, 15 min lh little/no lower wick closing just below the pivot/RN. Nice angle down on the MAs and all lined up. UJ and EU were also both falling. Entry was 122.96, all out at MS1 for +42.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #6,184
  • Mar 19, 2013 10:28pm Mar 19, 2013 10:28pm
Quoting Ian
Quite late in the day so trying to forgive myself for closing this one out too early.

1 hr engulfing negative close, 15 min lh little/no lower wick closing just below the pivot/RN. Nice angle down on the MAs and all lined up. UJ and EU were also both falling. Entry was 122.96, all out at MS1 for +42.
Hello Ian

Did you take entry on circled price as counter move?
Attached Image
  • #6,185
  • Mar 19, 2013 11:27pm Mar 19, 2013 11:27pm
Quoting Ian
Quite late in the day so trying to forgive myself for closing this one out too early.

1 hr engulfing negative close, 15 min lh little/no lower wick closing just below the pivot/RN. Nice angle down on the MAs and all lined up. UJ and EU were also both falling. Entry was 122.96, all out at MS1 for +42.
Very nice Ian, Mrs V had closed up shop just before.

She struggled yesterday not properly considering the lower highs at the extremes of the recent range (easy for me to say). Clearly rattled after her record breaking month last month and struggling mentally to stay on the right track. Missed many of the easier trading days at the start of the month which didn't help. Thankfully positive for the month at least.
  • #6,186
  • Mar 19, 2013 11:34pm Mar 19, 2013 11:34pm
Recap 19 Mar

EUR - View was: Positive D close to close the gap to Fri's lows, still below RSI 50 level. 4hr is still on lower high after the gap closed price went sideways, 50% retrace, still below RSI 50 level. No bias can go either way today.
50% retrace held, negative close lower high 3 bar reversal on 4hr set up move down.

GU - View was: D closed a small range doji. 4hr has now formed a lower high. A base has formed around 1.5070 and on the upside W M3 at 1.5143 and the recent high just above. No bias can go either way.
It did with some wild swings on 1hr.

EJ - View was: Positive D close to fill the gap. We are at W M2/last weeks lows/62% retrace. After a D close like yesterday view would normally be bias up but in view of the above we could easily react lower.
The fib/W pivot/resistance level held, move lower set up by a 4hr shooting star.
  • #6,187
  • Mar 19, 2013 11:42pm Mar 19, 2013 11:42pm
EUR GU EJ 20 Mar

EUR - D negative close below the previous low. 4hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down.

GU - After the strong push up on 14th no follow through higher. Resistance at W M3 1.5143 and below at 1.5070. Bias down.

EJ - Similar picture to EUR, bias down.
  • #6,188
  • Mar 20, 2013 3:49am Mar 20, 2013 3:49am
Mrs V sold GU, partly on the strong conviction of how 4hr looked, at 1.5081 out +31 will post charts later.
  • #6,189
  • Mar 20, 2013 4:18am Mar 20, 2013 4:18am
Quoting frank.david
Hello Ian

Did you take entry on circled price as counter move?
Hi, no I didn't take either, the trade I posted was my first this week.

The support area formed by the candles you circled was broken and then tested from below before the price fell. (Maybe that's what you meant?)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej_20131903-m15-2.gif Size: 22 KB
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #6,190
  • Mar 20, 2013 4:22am Mar 20, 2013 4:22am
Quoting Vantage
Mrs V sold GU, partly on the strong conviction of how 4hr looked, at 1.5081 out +31 will post charts later.
Nice to get a quick trade in before the Budget.
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #6,191
  • Mar 20, 2013 10:41am Mar 20, 2013 10:41am
Quoting Vantage
Mrs V sold GU, partly on the strong conviction of how 4hr looked, at 1.5081 out +31 will post charts later.
Here is the chart for the trade. Evening star pattern, 3 bar reversal, reject of move above RN in line with bias.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,192
  • Mar 20, 2013 5:58pm Mar 20, 2013 5:58pm
Quoting Vantage
Here is the chart for the trade. Evening star pattern, 3 bar reversal, reject of move above RN in line with bias.
MMMM..Nice
  • #6,193
  • Mar 21, 2013 12:39am Mar 21, 2013 12:39am
Quoting Vantage
Here is the chart for the trade. Evening star pattern, 3 bar reversal, reject of move above RN in line with bias.
Forgot to add the simple fact that when the move above the immediate range failed gave the move lower that much more chance of playing out. The fact that it had that long list of items we look for made it a trade and not just a breakout.
  • #6,194
  • Mar 21, 2013 12:41am Mar 21, 2013 12:41am
Recap 20 Mar, EUR higher low following divergence

EUR - View was: D negative close below the previous low. 4hr flow lower high lower low. Bias down.
The down bias never played out. That means we are going counter to the D trend so we have to assess if those rules are in play. We had a D support level at 1.2878. It looked like that was broken lower but that move struggled. We had 4hr positive divergence. Then there were 1hr higher lows going into Frankfurt open and again after London open, higher lows following divergence normally a good set up. The 1hr did show the short term flow had flipped to buys.


GU - View was: After the strong push up on 14th no follow through higher. Resistance at W M3 1.5143 and below at 1.5070. Bias down.
Down bias did play out until the news provided some wild swings again.

EJ - View was: Similar picture to EUR, bias down.
Very similar picture to EUR.
  • #6,195
  • Mar 21, 2013 1:07am Mar 21, 2013 1:07am
EUR GU EJ 21 Mar

EUR - D closed positive but did not break the upper resistance level 1.2980/1.3000. Ralph Shell has posted an article (see blog) and he is looking at the weekend gap to get closed with a move to 1.3050. Anyway D RSI has crossed but below 50 level, we could not break the D 8lwma. 4hr lots of upper wicks so the upper resistance level W S1 proving an issue still, RSI crossed up and above 50 level. 1hr negative divergence at yesterdays highs and we seem to be heading for a lower high following divergence. So much contradictory information that we can go either way. No bias for today.

GU - D closed a spinning top. 4hr negative divergence and clearly showing the range we are in contained by support/resistance and W pivots. No bias.

EJ - D 3 bar reversal positive close. 4hr now appears to be on a higher high. With the way things have been of late no bias and will be watching EUR and UJ for guidance and looking for trade rules to guide on either trend or counter trend moves.
  • #6,196
  • Mar 21, 2013 3:42am Mar 21, 2013 3:42am
EJ +32
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  • #6,197
  • Mar 21, 2013 9:28am Mar 21, 2013 9:28am
Quoting frank.david
EJ +32
Very nice.

A public holiday here and the V's were otherwise engaged.
  • #6,198
  • Mar 21, 2013 11:38pm Mar 21, 2013 11:38pm
Recap 21 Mar

EUR - View was: D closed positive but did not break the upper resistance level 1.2980/1.3000. 4hr lots of upper wicks so the upper resistance level W S1 proving an issue still, RSI crossed up and above 50 level. 1hr negative divergence at yesterdays highs and we seem to be heading for a lower high following divergence. So much contradictory information that we can go either way. No bias for today.
A lower fall on 1hr going into London open, after that chopped around in a small range.

GU - View was: D closed a spinning top. 4hr negative divergence and clearly showing the range we are in contained by support/resistance and W pivots. No bias.
A higher low on 1hr going into London open might have been difficult to trade with the upper wicks.

EJ - View was: D 3 bar reversal positive close. 4hr now appears to be on a higher high. With the way things have been of late no bias and will be watching EUR and UJ for guidance and looking for trade rules to guide on either trend or counter trend moves.
The 1 day up 1 day down continued. 4hr evening star pattern at W M2, 1hr lower high into London open signaled the fall.
  • #6,199
  • Mar 21, 2013 11:55pm Mar 21, 2013 11:55pm
EUR GU EJ 22 Mar

EUR - D negative close back into trend RSI below 50 level, daily lower high lower low flow intact, price stopped at support level. 4 hr strong rejection of the W S1 level 1.2954 with upper wicks. W M1 provided support during the day at 1.2894. Bias down with potential to bounce up from support.

GU - D positive close at the top of the recent range also recent resistance level 1.5160, RSI above 50 level/ma, D higher low formed. 4 hr move up stalled at the resistance level from late Feb/early March 1.5180-1.5200 with large upper wicks. RSI flat but above 50 level. 1 hr higher flow intact but move up appears to be weakening. Bias up but watch for reaction lower at resistance levels mentioned.

EJ - D negative close couldn’t push below yesterdays low. RSI down and below 8lwma.
4 hr showing wide range higher high higher low flow, today bouncing off the W M0 with decent lower wicks. There is lots of conflicting information but we cannot keep chopping up and down forever. I'll say bias down simply because of the D close with the chance for bounce up from the recent lows.
  • #6,200
  • Edited 7:19am Mar 22, 2013 7:17am | Edited 7:19am
Quoting Vantage
EUR GU EJ 22 Mar

EJ - D negative close couldn’t push below yesterdays low. RSI down and below 8lwma.
4 hr showing wide range higher high higher low flow, today bouncing off the W M0 with decent lower wicks. There is lots of conflicting information but we cannot keep chopping up and down forever. I'll say bias down simply because of the D close with the chance for bounce up from the recent lows. .
Very nice analysis this morning as usual V..

EJ moved down below the trend line (the pink upward sloping line) drawn from the 121.62 low on Monday 18th to test that low and the daily S1. Price then moved up rejecting the low and forming an hourly bullish engulfing with positive divergence. Simultaneously UJ had bounced up off support and EU had made a strong positive close.

The was also positive divergence showing on the 15 min followed by a higher low. My buy order was just above the Monthly pivot/MS1/W_M0 confluence at 122.46.

When price rejected the 200 EMA which was just below the pivot and W_S2 I closed out for +40. Simultaneously price had hit W_S1 1.2954 on EU, a previous strong resistance level, and MS1 on UJ.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: ej_20132203_m15.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ej_20132203_oanda.gif Size: 48 KB
Follow, don't anticipate.
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