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  • #401
  • Mar 15, 2013 3:49am Mar 15, 2013 3:49am
Quote
I'm watching another signal service to see when it will implode and crash. The second picture is our good friend MPC, and his "subscriber-voted" $1,000 account. The third picture went as far as 274% growth before crashing spectacularly.

Seems risky to join a signal service after a good run. But then again, without a good run we can't tell if the signal provider is good.

you are right. It's like trading the trend. You see it, but you don't know that as soon as you enter...will it continue?

It's a tough market. I feel like i'm just geting the cold deck this month....i'm still following the rules. WIll just have to grind this until i lose everything or something
will turn over.

one of the reasons i withdraw my profits regularly. AT least at the end of this i can at least say-i didn't let all my profits went to the toilet and got out with somethng.

Inserted Video
NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #402
  • Mar 15, 2013 4:24am Mar 15, 2013 4:24am
  •  St3ve
  • | Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Recovering from losses ... | 77 Posts
Quoting TPOTrader
WIll just have to grind this until i lose everything or something will turn over.
This statement absolutely disqualifies you as a trustworthy signal provider (at least for me)
You are aware of, that you're not only losing YOUR money, are you? ...


Quoting TPOTrader
AT least at the end of this i can at least say-i didn't let all my profits went to the toilet and got out with somethng.
Good for you ... but all those customers like me, who joined you somewhere in February this year haven't had the chance to withdraw anything. The moment you wrote an email to your customers, that you're going to stop the MT4i service for all accounts < 5k $, I disabled you as a signal provider.
The trades prior to this moment already forced me to think about the possibilty of steady success of your strategy (buy trade hit SL -> entering sell trade -> reverses and hits SL again).

Since then, I'm monitoring your performance each day and I'm really happy to do this without money in your trades. You even started to double your lot size just to make up the huge loss - which turns out to lose you even more.


I'm nowhere near to become a profitable trader myself and I absolutly respect your performance in the market, but I also think that you should get back to focus more on trading than on marketing and flame wars in forums against other traders (mcp?).

Performance brings you customers ... and performance fee!
  • #403
  • Mar 15, 2013 9:26am Mar 15, 2013 9:26am
Quoting St3ve
This statement absolutely disqualifies you as a trustworthy signal provider (at least for me)
You are aware of, that you're not only losing YOUR money, are you? ...


Good for you ... but all those customers like me, who joined you somewhere in February this year haven't had the chance to withdraw anything. The moment you wrote an email to your customers, that you're going to stop the MT4i service for all accounts < 5k $, I disabled you as a signal provider.
The trades prior to this moment already forced me to think about the possibilty of...

Steve,
You understand that this is my personal blog. Whatever I say in here is a reflection of my thoughts and general ramblings. Initially i didn't start this journal to market my signal. Go ahead and read the first few pages of this thread-you won't find me referring to my signal whatsoever. I got moved here cause i was stupid enough to put a link to my website on my FF profile.

It was only after i got moved to this commerical section-i figured-hey why not do some cheesy marketing-it's the whole point of being here anyway.

But to respond to your comments:

1. If honest statements disqualifies me as a trustworthy signal provider-then so be it. You're not going to find dressed up statements from me like other providers. What i say is honest and straight to the point. And also i was being sarcastic. I'm not going to just allow my own money dissapear. Based on my historical drawdown-the risk profile will reset at certain point and i just have to climb from there-so in theory i would not just blow up (maybe slow bleeding death-but not blow up). Doubling of position at certain point is also part of the strategy and i've proven it to work in the backtest under major slippage.

2. Yes I am aware that I'm losing my own money and others' as well. THis is a business. We all know what's at risk when we decided to trade (me) and follow trade signals (you as clients) Clients can choose who to follow and they can discontinue. I'm only a trader-NOT a certified CTA nor do i claim this is a safe investment (thus the disclaimers throughout the site). Clients also have the ability to manage their own risk since copy trade platforms allows you to reduce your position proportionately.

3. I'm not going to apologize the fact that some clients couldn't withdraw with only 1 month of following my service. If people subscribe to forex signals with money they need in the short term, they are taking huge risks!. This is meant to be a mid to long term following - and i've stated that on my website. If clients can't give me at least 6 months-then i'm not the right provider for them.

4. I think people are over reacting. It's seems to be the common reaction when there is the first losing month. You see a provider losing-here comes death squad. This recent performance-however crappy it is- it is still within expectations. My average win month is 10-15% and losing is 8-10%. It's the law of large numbers- and what you are seeing is the mean reversion in performance because i've had such a huge gain in the beginning. But i have confidence that i can meet 50% annual return. The question is- can you handle the spikes in getting to that goal?...
NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #404
  • Mar 15, 2013 10:54am Mar 15, 2013 10:54am
[quote=TPOTrader;6518282]Steve,
You understand that this is my personal blog. Whatever I say in here is a reflection of my thoughts and general ramblings. Initially i didn't start this journal to market my signal. Go ahead and read the first few pages of this thread-you won't find me referring to my signal whatsoever. I got moved here cause i was stupid enough to put a link to my website on my FF profile.

It was only after i got moved to this commerical section-i figured-hey why not do some cheesy marketing-it's the whole point of being here anyway.

But to respond to your comments:

1. If honest statements disqualifies me as a trustworthy signal provider-then so be it. You're not going to find dressed up statements from me like other providers. What i say is honest and straight to the point. And also i was being sarcastic. I'm not going to just allow my own money dissapear. Based on my historical drawdown-the risk profile will reset at certain point and i just have to climb from there-so in theory i would not just blow up (maybe slow bleeding death-but not blow up). Doubling of position at certain point is also part of the strategy and i've proven it to work in the backtest under major slippage.

2. Yes I am aware that I'm losing my own money and others' as well. THis is a business. We all know what's at risk when we decided to trade (me) and follow trade signals (you as clients) Clients can choose who to follow and they can discontinue. I'm only a trader-NOT a certified CTA nor do i claim this is a safe investment (thus the disclaimers throughout the site). Clients also have the ability to manage their own risk since copy trade platforms allows you to reduce your position proportionately.

3. I'm not going to apologize the fact that some clients couldn't withdraw with only 1 month of following my service. If people subscribe to forex signals with money they need in the short term, they are taking huge risks!. This is meant to be a mid to long term following - and i've stated that on my website. If clients can't give me at least 6 months-then i'm not the right provider for them.

4. I think people are over reacting. It's seems to be the common reaction when there is the first losing month. You see a provider losing-here comes death squad. This recent performance-however crappy it is- it is still within expectations. My average win month is 10-15% and losing is 8-10%. It's the law of large numbers- and what you are seeing is the mean reversion in performance because i've had such a huge gain in the beginning. But i have confidence that i can meet 50% annual return. The question is- can you handle the spikes in getting to that goal?...[/quote]

A trader who cant take a loss is in the wrong business....if you follow your trading method to the last letter and lose...its not a loss, its cost of doing business...to me a loss is when I lose money by not following my trading plan. A trader usually have a good run and then you have a few losses...just like the market, it has a good trend and then it consolidates....its usually in the consolidation where traders who have a trend approach get chopped.

But if you keep cutting your losses ...you will be able to achieve your goals. But most traders especially new traders and struggling traders cant handle a losing streak. If you are averaging a win month of 10-15 percent and a losing months of 8-10 percent..means you are overally doing great.
  • #405
  • Mar 15, 2013 8:05pm Mar 15, 2013 8:05pm
Hi TPOtrader,

Don't sweat it. Recently the market has been very challenging for trend based systems. It is the market's trends, not you.

Hopefully both yours and our system can break the equity high soon!

I think at this point the best we can do is keep our losers cheap.

Adam
MPC
See our myfbook results. Our username = MPC
  • #406
  • Edited 8:23pm Mar 15, 2013 8:09pm | Edited 8:23pm
Quoting mmaker
I'm watching another signal service to see when it will implode and crash. The second picture is our good friend MPC, and his "subscriber-voted" $1,000 account. The third picture went as far as 274% growth before crashing spectacularly.

Seems risky to join a signal service after a good run. But then again, without a good run we can't tell if the signal provider is good.
We have been ranging in a -10% up 4% range for close to 3 months. Being down 10% for us is being wrong 4 trades in a row. You will see 2 trading days made 10% profits for us 2 weeks ago. We are far from being blown up at this point.

Adam
MPC
See our myfbook results. Our username = MPC
  • #407
  • Mar 15, 2013 11:46pm Mar 15, 2013 11:46pm
Quoting mmaker
You really should stay in your own thread. You are nowhere qualified to be a signal provider/vendor. TPOTrader is the most transparent trader we have showing everything he does in his Myfxbook. You deleted your previous Myfxbook ($200 account) and now try to start a new one with $1,000 which already showed you can't trade. Please, do yourself a favor and avoid further embarrassment. You don't have history to even compare with TPOTrader.
Mmaker,

I didn't come back to start a fire fight, and it seems you have much bigger drawdowns with other systems to point your uneducated finger at.

I simply came back to empathize with TPO and to say "yes it is a tough market at the moment" and many trend based systems are suffering the interim. Basically "you are not alone." Sometimes during a drawdown, a trader may feel like they are on a lonely island by themselves, when that is far from reality. Great trend based systems rise and fall in similar sequences.

TPO is added to our buddy list, because you know what? I respect the guy at the end of the day. He is here putting it out there.

I realized it is people like yourself MMAKER (troll) who love to kick traders when they are down, who make trading forums go to crap. You add too much emotion, and very little logic when analyzing systems.

If you can show your myfxbook and blunders, much respect to you. Until we see your personal myfxbook, no respect given to you.

Your word means nothing. You have OVER 500 posts, a member here for 3 years and ZERO VOUCHES! Nobody really cares what you think apparently. Until you have a valid myfxbook posted, go back to your troll hole.

Good day.
See our myfbook results. Our username = MPC
  • #408
  • Edited Mar 16, 2013 11:54pm Mar 15, 2013 11:55pm | Edited Mar 16, 2013 11:54pm
Quoting TPOTrader
here you are trying to defend the legitimacy of your service on my thread. Why don't you grow some balls and unban these people from your thread and let them have the discussion there? Of course you wouldn't do that, cause a scammer has something to hide and can't bear the criticisms.

It's pretty pathetic. Forget about the competition.. Your service is shot dead already..RIP mpc
As TPOTrader suggested, grow some balls and defend yourself in your own thread. You have no credibility and you're just trying to associate yourself with TPOTrader, after failing to gain attention with 13 threads. "Great systems"? You are nowhere in comparison with TPOTrader. Stay in your own thread.

You can't trade and you tried to get $100/mth from unknowing customers. Scams like you need to be exposed. You want to talk about Myfxbook? I challenge you to commit $10,000 of your money into Myfxbook. And don't give the crap about your subscribers voting for $1K account, that's a lie and you know it. Your previous Myfxbook attempt was $200 and you lost it, and deleted, http://www.myfxbook.com/members/MPca...italnet/390620. After 13 threads, now you crawl into TPOTrader's personal thread to defend your scam?? Nobody cares what I think? That's fine, because I'm not a scam signal provider trying to trick $100/mth subscription on two forums.

Quoting mpc
TPOtrader is down another 5% today... He lost 33% off the high this year.

He seems to be folding, after going public with his trading in late December. Simply pointing this out, as he and TheMAXX chimed in yesterday with the desire of comparing systems.

MPC
I wonder who's the one "who love to kick traders when they are down ....". I don't do that, I merely asked you to go back to your thread because you don't have the same credibility to even associate yourself with TPOTrader. Come to think of it, you over-reacted because you were sensitive due to your recent straight losses. If you respect TPOTrader, you shouldn't have argued on his thread while banning critics from your own thread. Your cowardice to confront your critics made you mess up someone else's thread. How pathetic.

Quoting mpc
Again, go crawl back under your rock in your little Troll hole.
Quoting mpc
I'm sure your mum needs to remind you 5 times per day to make your bed...
Keep talking. I'll love to record your "professionalism". Your penchant for arguing (on other people's threads) and your Myfxbook certainly tells us more about you. Don't worry, I don't degrade myself to bring out your mum.

We are all watching Myfxbook. All the information is there regarding performance. They are either positive or they are negative. Your extensive explanations dont change the performance numbers, so far they are negative. You can drone on for paragraphs hurling abuses, yet all that needs to be said is revealed when you post Myfxbook. So keep talking, it doesn't change your performance numbers.
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No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #409
  • Edited 12:52am Mar 16, 2013 12:07am | Edited 12:52am
Quoting mmaker
You have no credibility and you're just trying to associate yourself with TPOTrader. "Great systems"? You are nowhere in comparison with TPOTrader. Stay in your own thread.

You can't trade and you tried to get $100/mth from unknowing customers. Scams like you need to be exposed. You want to talk about Myfxbook? I challenge you to commit $10,000 of your money into Myfxbook. And don't give the crap about your subscribers voting for $1K account, that's a lie and you know it. Nobody cares what I think? That's fine, because I'm not a scam...
A bit of education for your uneducated self...

A Signal Provider "Scam" is defined as such:

1) all manual signals
a. TPOtrader and MPC both use a tradecopier, it is very difficult to hide behind trades when doing this.
b. a manual signal provider can alter and change their signals, showing you 1000s of pips earned each week, blaming it
on the subscriber for losing while following signals.
2) non transparent
a. We have a published myfxbook to keep us transparent this year. However it does attract Trolls with zero credibility such as mmaker.
3) scammers are uneducated about trading systems.
4) scams will encourage new subscribers to join their system, even in a major drawdown
a. We discourage new subscriptions during a losing streak.

Again, go crawl back under your rock in your little Troll hole.
See our myfbook results. Our username = MPC
  • #410
  • Mar 16, 2013 12:47am Mar 16, 2013 12:47am
Quoting mmaker
You have no credibility and you're just trying to associate yourself with TPOTrader. "Great systems"? You are nowhere in comparison with TPOTrader. Stay in your own thread.

You can't trade and you tried to get $100/mth from unknowing customers. Scams like you need to be exposed. You want to talk about Myfxbook? I challenge you to commit $10,000 of your money into Myfxbook. And don't give the crap about your subscribers voting for $1K account, that's a lie and you know it. Nobody cares what I think? That's fine, because I'm not...
mmaker,

You pick out every negative thing you can find (as a trOll does) however you forgot to include this one...

"Hi Adele, yes still subscribed.... after seeing numerous threads here of blown up accounts (privatefx comes to mind) because they couldn't handle the hard times...it's refreshing to see how MPC is handling things....and as Adam suggested, now is probably not a good time to subscribe....just my 2 cents!"

Now why would we (MPC) a "scammer" be telling people to hold off subscribing until we break out of this ranging zone?? Hmmm... Get your story straight.

Also you forgot to mention that the magnitude of our winners makes it statistically improbable for us to finish out the year negative.

As TPO says you just need to wait out the law of large numbers. Do you even listen to your friends??

I'm sure your mum needs to remind you 5 times per day to make your bed...
See our myfbook results. Our username = MPC
  • #411
  • Edited 11:43am Mar 16, 2013 12:58am | Edited 11:43am
Quoting mmaker
Keep talking. I'll love to record your "professionalism".
I am professional to professionals. For this reason I have respect for TPOtrader, and gave my apologies for any lack of professionalism with him.

I won't stand to put up with nonsensical little trolls like yourself MMAKER who have nothing better to do on a weekend than to kick traders while they are down. Down 4 losing trades to be exact.

Keep talking, you are showing us all why you don't have any vouches after being a member for 3 years. You have no critical thinking skills, you are simply good at slinging mud from your troll cave. Albeit mildly good at that, as your mud is irrelevant and filled with biased lies.
See our myfbook results. Our username = MPC
  • #412
  • Mar 16, 2013 2:23am Mar 16, 2013 2:23am
Quoting mpc
Now why would we (MPC) a "scammer" be telling people to hold off subscribing until we break out of this ranging zone??
Agree, this month has been a difficult market to trade. 'Pack leader' EU is showing no clear direction on H4/D1, with other currencies/pairs largely following suit. I ended up placing a trade on USDCAD on Friday, a pair that I don't normally touch.
  • #413
  • Mar 16, 2013 1:08pm Mar 16, 2013 1:08pm
Quoting mmaker
You have no credibility and you're just trying to associate yourself with TPOTrader, after failing to gain attention with 13 threads. "Great systems"? You are nowhere in comparison with TPOTrader. Stay in your own thread.

You can't trade and you tried to get $100/mth from unknowing customers. Scams like you need to be exposed. You want to talk about Myfxbook? I challenge you to commit $10,000 of your money into Myfxbook. And don't give the crap about your subscribers voting for $1K account, that's a lie and you know it. Nobody...
mmaker,

You keep on trolling
And we will keep on trading

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oYeKGP8gN3w
See our myfbook results. Our username = MPC
  • #414
  • Mar 17, 2013 3:28pm Mar 17, 2013 3:28pm
Quoting mmaker
I'm watching another signal service to see when it will implode and crash. The second picture is our good friend MPC, and his "subscriber-voted" $1,000 account. The third picture went as far as 274% growth before crashing spectacularly.

Seems risky to join a signal service after a good run. But then again, without a good run we can't tell if the signal provider is good.
Once you have "clients", it changes you as a savvy trader. Been in their shoes once. I know.
  • #415
  • Mar 20, 2013 8:59am Mar 20, 2013 8:59am
So i got dropped by Rapa today. Basically my DD this month was too much to bear for them, even though it is within the expectation when you follow my risk profile.

This is exactly what i kind of expect. People only see the gains i've made and didn't think about what it took to get there. The whole discussion about risk management is pointless because as a follower, they can adjust their risk to be whatever they want in proportion to my risk. At the end of the day, my overall gain is 2-3x my DD which is good in my opinion.

IF they can't handle 30-35% DD, then make it smaller, but also understand their gains would be smaller too. It still amaze me why people who follow me fail to understand the usefulness of this feature.
NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #416
  • Edited 6:07pm Mar 20, 2013 5:54pm | Edited 6:07pm
Hi TPOtrader and traders,

I figured this data would be beneficial for your thread:

3 Examples:

1) Madoff Performance (http://thebrokenelbow.files.wordpres...00779fd2ac.gif)
2) Long Term Capital Management's Performance (http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DpnUbT_EGZ...asury+Bond.png)
3) John Henry (long term Trend Follower and owner of Boston Red Sox) see picture below, as it was taken from Covel's book Trend Following.

Comparing the 3 charts, Madoff and LTCM equity trends are straight to the moon. Conversely, John Henry's equity trend contains pullbacks, which he was able to manage well, and continue trading through it (as TPOtrader is doing, sticking to his plan!)

The biggest difference between the 3? The system with the most volatility now owns the Boston Red Sox... Any equity trend that is straight up, without retracements is very dangerous, and considered "short volatility" as it only works within a short period of time, until coming to a crashing end.

Keep it up TPOtrader. Nice win today m8.

Adam
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See our myfbook results. Our username = MPC
  • #417
  • Mar 21, 2013 12:14pm Mar 21, 2013 12:14pm
I feel his pain. Been there before and when i was in that place, i felt like giving up. Everytime I experience that loss, i always say-i should go to grad school and make something of myself. lol.

http://zenfxtrader.wordpress.com/
NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #418
  • Mar 21, 2013 7:54pm Mar 21, 2013 7:54pm
Quoting mpc
Hi TPOtrader and traders,

I figured this data would be beneficial for your thread:

3 Examples:

1) Madoff Performance (http://thebrokenelbow.files.wordpres...00779fd2ac.gif)
2) Long Term Capital Management's Performance (http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DpnUbT_EGZ...asury+Bond.png)
3) John Henry (long term Trend Follower and owner of Boston Red Sox) see picture below, as it was taken from Covel's book Trend Following....
Perhaps this post requires an update with some additional factual information. Apparently they are not so different if the track record is updated to the present.

Quote
Comparing the 3 charts, Madoff and LTCM equity trends are straight to the moon. Conversely, John Henry's equity trend contains pullbacks, which he was able to manage well, and continue trading through it (as TPOtrader is doing, sticking to his plan!)

The biggest difference between the 3? The system with the most volatility now owns the Boston Red Sox... Any equity trend that is straight up, without retracements is very dangerous, and considered "short volatility" as it only works within a short period of time, until coming to a crashing end.

Keep...

No equity curve (smooth or rough) is immune from blowout.
John W. Henry - An Autopsy of One of the Greats
  • #419
  • Edited 8:30pm Mar 21, 2013 8:18pm | Edited 8:30pm
JWH made a higher high in Oct 09 and did not post a lower low prior to retiring. The trend was still up.

Henry simply retired, as did Tom Basso from Trendstat, Seykota and many of the trend following greats. Fortunately they did not retire the same way Livermore did...

John W Henry's fund was very far from a blowout. The main point I was trying to emphasize, is that if a fund is up month after month after month, it has a much larger risk of blowing out. Simply because it has not displayed the fund manager's ability to handle a drawdown effectively.

Many times Henry's fund trended sideways prior to making another climb. The article referenced would never have been written if JWH retired in 2009. In fact praises would have been singing to his name and Trend Following.

Possibly another effective example of handling and controlling risk is David Harding. His 2012 loss of 3.5% was described as a "tragedy" in an article. It was his second loss in 16 years. If Harding retired in 2012 I am sure many would be quick to call him a failure due to recency bias. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...s-in-2012.html
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See our myfbook results. Our username = MPC
  • #420
  • Mar 21, 2013 8:37pm Mar 21, 2013 8:37pm
I'm not sure what else there is to say. The premise was that larger drawdown systems don't blow up. I showed using the same example posted, that this is not the case. Going from 3 billion under management to less than 25 million sure sounds like a blowup to me. It may have been slow motion but it is still a blowup. Closing shop and forcing investors to redeem their shares isn't a sign of success. 8 years with net losses doesn't sound like success to me. You may say if only they had written the article earlier. But the fact is that a trader is only as good as his next trade. Past results mean nothing.
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