GAINSY Hottest Forecasts

(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png SNB Warns Of Easing Further If CHF Remains High Against USD

As expected, the SNB left the 3-month LIBOR target at 0-0.25%. Policymakers also pledged to maintain the minimum 1.20 EURCHF exchange rate with utmost determination. The central bank continued to express concerns about strength in CHF and stated that they would 'take further measures at any time" should conditions require....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Intraday Statement: USD Rises on Jobless Claims, SNB on Hold

USD strengthens in early US session as economic data showed further improvements in employment markets. Initial jobless claims decreased 10k to 332k in the bank weekended March 9, the lowest number since January. That's also much better than expectation of a rise to 355k. Continuing claims also decreased by 89k to...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Daily Statement: Nikkei Jumps after BoJ Nominations Approval, JPY Steady
(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

Nikkei jumps sharply today while yen is mildly softer in crosses as the Japanese parliament finally approved three policy doves to head BoJ. The upper house gave green lights to Kuroda as BoJ governor while Iwata and Nasako were both approved as deputy governors. Kuroda pledged earlier this bank week that...

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(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2975

As the single currency has continued to move higher after staging a strong recoil from this bank week’s low of 1.2912, adding credence toour view that a temporary low is possibly formed there and consolidation with upside bias remains for a test of strong resistance at 1.3065-75, however, a firm fracture above there is needed to retain near term bullishness for retracement of recent decline to 1.3100, however, still reckon resistance at 1.3135 would hold from here, bring another decline later...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5035

As the British pound has continued to move higher after this bank week’s rally from 1.4832, adding credence to our view that a temporary low has been formed there and near term bullishness remains for this move to bring retracement of recent decline to 1.5155-60, then towards resistance at 1.5200, however, overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond another previous resistance at 1.5223, risk from there is seen for a retreat later...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9530

Despite yesterday’s brief rise to 0.9567, lack of follow through buying on fracture of previous resistance at 0.9552 and the subsequent sharp retreat add credence to our view that a temporary top is formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for retracement of recent upmove to support at 0.9430-32, however, fracture there is needed to retian bearishness and extend weakness to support at 0.9411 and possibly another previous support at 0.9395 which is likely to limit downside from here...

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Jobs Data Drives Stocks And Currencies, GBP Surges

Of course the big rise in Australian employment was the key driver in Asia yesterday but overnight the fall in jobless claims in the US both at an initial and then also at 4 bank week moving average level was another sign that the US economy is healing. But in Europe...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png NY Session: USD Consolidates Lower

The USD consolidated lower against most of the G10 currencies, but is stronger against the SEK and NOK. Sweden’s unemployment surprisingly ticked higher to 8.5% from 8.4% and the SEK is softer as a result of the disappointing data. Both the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Norges Bank kept their...

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png New Zealand's Consumer Confidence Fell To -5.1%

New Zealand's economy showed optimistic reading over its consumer confidence which decreased during March's reading to a record, where the recent mixed economic performance and foggy global economic scene participated in today's reading....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Asia Session: Kuroda Takes The Helm Of The BoJ

Kuroda, Iwata and Nakaso have received the approval of Japan's upper house as BoJ governor and his deputies, respectively. All the BoJ officials passed with flying colours, even Iwata managed 124 votes towards his nomination (96 against) despite some opposition to his appointment from the DPJ. The decision by Tokyo...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png USD/CHF: Swiss Franc Trading Higher Ahead Of Domestic PPI Data

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9424, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9379. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9541, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9613....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png USD/CAD: Loonie Moved Northwards Tracking Commodity Prices, Positive Canadian Data

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0196, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0171. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0263, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0305....

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png AUD/USD: Strong Australian Employment Data Boosted Aussie, Trading Tad Lower This Morning

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0340, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0305. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0407, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0439....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png USD/JPY: Haruhiko Kuroda Confirmed As BoJ Governor

The pair is expected to find support at 95.73, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 95.24. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 96.65, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 97.09....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png GBP/USD: Recovery Is 'In Sight', Indicates Mervyn King

The pair is expected to find support at 1.4961, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.4835. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.5167, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.5247....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png EUR/USD: Euro Rises, EU Summit In Focus

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2945, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2867. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3067, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3111....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Elliott Wave Forecast: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0290
(GAINSY Elliott Wave Analysis)

As aussie has continued to trade with a firm undertone, suggesting the rise from 1.0116 low is still in progress and further gain to resistance at 1.0477 would be seen, however, fracture there is needed to retain bullishness and signal recent fall from 1.0599 has ended and bring headway to

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(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5050

As the British pound has continued to move higher after this bank week’s rally from 1.4832, adding credence to our view that a temporary low has been formed there and near term bullishness remains for this move to bring retracement of recent decline towards resistance at 1.5200, then towards 1.5219-23 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5845-1.4832 and previous resistance), however, overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.5250, risk from there is seen for a retreat later...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Update: USD/CHF – Turn short at 0.9485

Despite yesterday’s brief rise to 0.9567, lack of follow through buying on fracture of previous resistance at 0.9552 and the subsequent selloff together with current breach of previous support at 0.9430 add credence to our view that a temporary top is formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias remains for retracement of recent upmove to support at 0.9411, then another support at 0.9395, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 0.9360 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 0.9024-0.9567) but previous resistance at 0.9339 should hold from here...

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Sterling Finds Correction Trigger, Upside To Extend

After the royal sterling pound slumped heavily under strong selling pressures to the lowest since June 2010, the pound is trying to find momentum to correct the sharp bearish wave and the trigger was no other than outgoing Bank of England governor Mervyn King who tried to talk-up sterling and...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png France, Italy Push For Loose Budget Rules At EU Summit

European Union leaders have met in Brussels on Thursday for tow-day summit, to negotiate the difficult balance between austerity and growth and to discuss strategies to jolt the euro area amid mass protests in the Belgian capital. Leaders wrestled with German demands for strict austerity while France and Italy called...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Sterling Soared On Qatari Demand

The Asian equities climbed overnight as the Japan Upper House approved the new BoJ Governorship within two minutes only; the Kuroda-led team will take seat on March 20 for the next five years. The Nikkei 225 climbed 1.45%, Hang Seng and Shanghai's Composite added 0.08% and 0.37%, while Taiex and Kospi index retreated 0.31% and 0.78% respectively....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png USD Running Into Resistance After Recent Rally

EUR/USD reached a new correction low, but the dollar failed to profit from good jobless claims. This triggered a profit taking move. Sterling also extended its technical recoil, both against the dollar and the euro. Late in the session, BoE's King indicated that sterling was properly valued. This might cause...

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Euro Area's Below-Target Inflation Confirmed, Euro Advances Before European Chiefs Meeting

Today's report from the euro area confirmed that inflation remained below the ECB's target in February, where the bank's main concern shifts to boosting growth and the sharp drop in the fourth quarter and rise in unemployment. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year ended February lingered at 1.8%, in...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Euro Ignores Fitch

The currency markets were dominated by the end of the recent USD-bull yesterday, as the sterling soared on the heavy Qatari demand and the Euro took advantage of the weak USD to breathe. The supportive comments out of EU summit gave boost to the single currency, who remained confident after...

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(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Wrap-up: USD/JPY – Buy at 94.80

Current retreat on dollar’s broad-based weakness suggests a temporary top has been formed at 96.71 and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for retracement to 95.26 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 92.92-96.71) and possibly 95.00 but renewed buying interests should emerge around 94.80-85 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and bring another upmove later. A fracture of intra-day resistance at 96.28 would bring recoil to 96.55-60 but fracture of said resistance at 96.71 is needed to confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to 97.00, however, 97.50-55 (1.618 times projection of 90.88-93.73 measuring from 92.92) should cap upside due to loss of upward momentum...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3015

Although euro has retreated after intra-day rally to 1.3107 and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3024), however, intra-day support at 1.3000 should limit downside and bring another rise later, above said intra-day resistance would extend this bank week’s recoil from 1.2912 low for retracement of recent decline to previous resistance at 1.3135, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3150-60 and reckon 1.3175-80 would hold, risk from there has increased for a retreat later...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Wrap-up: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5050

As the British pound has finally retreated after intra-day rise to 1.5177, suggesting a minor top is formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5082) and possibly intra-day support at 1.5069, however, reckon 1.5040-45 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4908-1.5177 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4832-1.5177) would limit downside and bring another rise. Above said resistance at 1.5177 would extend the rise from this bank week’s low of 1.4832 for retracement of recent decline to resistance at 1.5200, then towards 1.5219-23 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5845-1.4832 and previous resistance), however, overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.5250, risk from there is seen for a retreat later...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Wrap-up: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9470

USD’s selloff after yesterday’s brief rise to 0.9567 together with the subsequent breach of previous support at 0.9430 add credence to our view that a temporary top is formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias remains for retracement of recent upmove from 0.9024 and further weakness to 0.9360 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 0.9024-0.9567) would be seen but previous resistance at 0.9339 should limit downside and reckon 0.9300 would hold on first testing due to near term oversold condition...

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Weekly Focus: US Up, Europe Down, China Sideways

US retail sales are continuing to climb despite higher taxes and gasoline prices, and there were some strong data from the job market. The EU countries seem slightly more open to more expansionary fiscal policy, while industrial production data revealed further decline in the euro area, albeit at a slower rate....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png U.S. Consumer Prices Stay Flat in January

A drop in energy prices during January contributed to the decline in transportation costs that kept headline CPI unchanged on the month. However, February's gas oline prices have gone up by around 7%, whichwill likely lead to a higher CPI reading for the month. Despite the increase in core annual inflation...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png U.S. February Consumer Prices Spike Higher

February 2013 consumer prices rose a stronger than expected 0.7% in the month following unchanged prices in January. Expectations had been for a solid increase although for a moderate 0.5%. The sizeable monthly increase pushed the year-over-year rate up to 2.0% from 1.6% in January....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png U.S. Industrial Production Jumped 0.7% in February

US industrial production jumped 0.7% in February 2013 and bounced back strongly, following an unchanged reading in January (previously was -0.1%) and a 0.3% gain in December 2012 (was 0.4%). The bulk of the increase in February reflected a sizeable 0.8% gain in manufacturing output that more than retraced a...

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(GAINSY Elliott Wave Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Elliott Wave Forecast: USD/CAD – Hold long entered at 1.0190

Although the greenback has slipped and broke below support at 1.0234, as the move from 1.0343 is viewed as the minor wave iv correction, reckon downside would be limited and 1.0140-50 should hold, bring another rise later, above 1.0250-60 would suggest low is possibly formed and bring test of 1.0280...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Elliott Wave Forecast: EUR/GBP – Stand aside

Although yesterday’s anticipated decline adds credence to our view that wave iii has formed a top at 0.8815 last bank week and c leg of the wave iv is now unfolding for further weakness towards support at 0.8576, fracture there is needed to retain near term bearishness and bring a stronger...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Intraday Statement: USD Pull Back Continues, EUR/USD Back above 1.3
(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

USD's pull back continues in early US session with EUR/USD back above 1.3 at the time of writing. Data from US saw Empire state manufacturing index decreased slightly to 9.24 in March, above expectation of 8.4. Headline CPI rose more than expected to 2.0% in February while core CPI also...

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(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Weekly Stocktaking and Forecast: USD Pulled Back ahead of FOMC Meeting

The dollar index breached 83 level last bank week to reached as high as 83.17 but failed to hold on to its gain. Instead selloffs on Friday pushed dollar to close the bank week lower against all other major currencies. The equity markets saw DOW jumped to another record high against but...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Daily Statement: Euro Gapped Lower on Cyprus Deposit Tax Chaos

Euro gaps sharply lower as the bank week open on news that deposit tax is included as part of Cyprus bail out deal. Eurozone leaders and Cyprus agreed over the bank weekend that, in order to be eligible for an international bailout, the island country will need to raise up to EUR...

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Political Backlash Will Undermine Euro

The Euro will take a pasting on Monday following news of the Cyprus rescue package and levy on deposits, but the real question is whether there will be longer-term implications. German intent remains clearer than ever – it will keep the Euro-zone together for now, but it will be strictly...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Asia Session: Cyprus Faces A Tough Decision

Risk assets are reeling from the details of a proposed bail-out deal for Cyprus, where the island nation is being asked to introduce an unprecedented once-off levy on deposit holders. In other words, the German-led group of creditors is asking Nicosia to pony-up some of the dough for its bail-out...

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png The Horns Of A Dilemma

The RBNZ reiterated its 'on hold' outlook for the OCR last bank week, but threw markets a curve ball with its discussion of the risks on both sides of that outlook sending both interest rates and the NZ dollar sharply lower. Our own forecast remains for the OCR hiking cycle...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png EUR/USD: Euro Retreats As Cyprus Turmoil Impacts Risk Appetite

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2819, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2744. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3039, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3184....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png GBP/USD: UK Rightmove House Prices Rise In March

The pair is expected to find support at 1.5049, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5003. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.5159, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.5223....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png USD/JPY: JPY Trading Below Its MA's

The pair is expected to find support at 94.15, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 93.52. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 95.84, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 96.91....

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png USD/CHF: Swissy Trading Lower In The Asian Session

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9388, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9335. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9484, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9527....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png AUD/USD: Aussie Trading Lower As Risk Appetite Wanes

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0333, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0303. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0403, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0443....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Cyprus Parliament To Vote On Bank Levy

Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades said on Sunday that savers made to pay a tax on bank deposits in return for international aid, will be compensated by shares in banks guaranteed by future natural gas revenues. In his televised adress, President Anastasiades said that a bank levy on private depositors as...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png EUR: Cyprus Triggers Market Selloff As Investors Weigh Deposit Levy

The market started the bank week in reaction to Cyprus bailout that saw a surprise change in euro nations’ rhetoric, correlating the eligibility to receive bailout funds directly to depositors shouldering the bailout. The one-time levy on bank deposits put the debt-crisis once again center stage on fears market tension will...

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(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5020

Cable’s retreat after Friday’s rise to 1.5177 adds credence to our view that a minor top is formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for pullback to 1.5040-45 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4908-1.5177 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4832-1.5177), however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5014) would limit downside and bring another rise. Above 1.5135-40 woudl bring another test of said resistance at 1.5177 but fracture there is needed to signal the rise from last bank week’s low of 1.4832 has resumed for retracement of recent decline to resistance at 1.5200, then towards 1.5219-23 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5845-1.4832 and previous resistance)...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9500

As the greenback has recoiled after last bank week’s selloff from 0.9567 to 0.9380, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and initial upside bias is seen for gain to 0.9470-75 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9567-0.9380), however, reckon 0.9495-00 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) should limit upside and bring another decline later. A fracture of 0.9415-20 would suggest the recoil from 0.9380 has possibly ended and bring weakness to 0.9380-90 but fracture there is needed to signal the fall from 0.9567 has resumed for weakness towards 0.9350 later but previous resistance at 0.9339 should contain downside...

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Cyprus Deal is a Dangerous Game

The extraordinary Eurogroup meeting on Friday evening ended with a deal on a EUR10bn rescue package for Cyprus after lengthy discussions. From a market point of view, the most important element of the deal is that depositors in Cypriot banks will have to take a haircut. The haircut, or "upfront...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Heavy Risk-Off On Cypriot Haircut

The risk sentiment clearly burned out this Monday as the imposition of one-off 10% levy on Cypriot bank deposits threatened to weigh heavier on the already-fragile Euro-Zone financial system. Moody’s commented that the decision may have negative implications on the supported bank ratings all across Europe, due to a global...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Euro Hit By Cypriote Bail-Out Conditions

In technical trade, the dollar lost some ground across the board on Friday. This morning, the euro is hit as markets ponder the potential contagion risk from the Cypriote bail-out details. We expect the correction to develop orderly. EUR/USD is nearing the 1.2877 support. EUR/GBP decreased below the first important...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Cyprus Sparks Heavy Losses In European Markets

Under the bailout's terms, Cypriot bank depositors will be required to pay as much as 10 percent on their savings under a deal brokered by euro area finance ministers on Saturday to offer the island a 10 billion euro in aid. Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades is intending to raise €5.8...

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