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Higher low, lower high system

  • #6,161
  • Mar 12, 2013 11:42pm Mar 12, 2013 11:42pm
EUR GU EJ 13 Mar

EUR - D closed a doji, 1.3000 as a proven support level is a tough nut to crack. having said that we are not going up either. For now the 4hr is on a higher high higher low. A negative close now would flip that over back to a sell. No bias can go either way.

GU - D closed a hammer so we could go up. No conviction in the move we are below our 8lwma and below RSI's signal line (on yesterdays close), divergence still there. 4hr has broken the lower high lower low flow. Still viewing valid system buys as counter trend and main focus should be selling the rallies in this downtrend. Focus will remain down bias until daily proves otherwise with a valid reversal pattern.

EJ - 126 held for the 3rd day. D closed negative but we are still above our 8lwma and RSI signal line. 4hr had RSI sell signal earlier allowing sells yesterday. There is support at 124.70, the move below there yesterday was quickly rejected as clearly shown by the lower wicks on 1hr. Short term bias appears down there is the chance to bounce up from support.
  • #6,162
  • Mar 13, 2013 8:51am Mar 13, 2013 8:51am
Just 1 BE trade this morning. Sold the GU 15 min lh 1.4947. Struggling at the previous lows to hold the break. Will post chart later if it comes to anything.

We are heading towards a 4hr 3 bar reversal close which will give some hope of more downside.
  • #6,163
  • Mar 13, 2013 10:44am Mar 13, 2013 10:44am
Quoting Vantage
Just 1 BE trade this morning. Sold the GU 15 min lh 1.4947. Struggling at the previous lows to hold the break. Will post chart later if it comes to anything.

We are heading towards a 4hr 3 bar reversal close which will give some hope of more downside.
Above the 200ema on 15 min, price did not want to progress higher for 3 hrs. 15 min lh, 3 bar reversal close, little/no lower wick. Out at +34, 3% ROI on that one.
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  • #6,164
  • Mar 13, 2013 11:19pm Mar 13, 2013 11:19pm
Recap 13 Mar

EUR - View was: No bias can go either way.
Pushed up to the previous days high/W M3 and fell strongly.

GU - View was: Still viewing valid system buys as counter trend and main focus should be selling the rallies in this downtrend. Focus will remain down bias until daily proves otherwise with a valid reversal pattern.
A very choppy day.

EJ - View was: Short term bias appears down there is the chance to bounce up from support.
A very choppy day.
  • #6,165
  • Mar 13, 2013 11:34pm Mar 13, 2013 11:34pm
EUR GU EJ 14 Mar

EUR - D closed a 3 bar reversal evening star pattern, still has evidence of divergence. 4hr on lower high lower low flow. Bias down.

GU - D closed a shooting star, the struggle to go lower continues. The 4hr higher low might get broken when the current candle closes putting us back on a lower high. Still viewing any rallies as chance to sell back into downtrend.

EJ - D closed negative. 4hr had a double top and is now approaching the W Pivot and 123.80 where we bounced up from on Fri. 1hr on lower high lower low and showing positive divergence at the lows. Bias down with the potential to bounce up from support.
  • #6,166
  • Mar 14, 2013 8:43am Mar 14, 2013 8:43am
Quoting Vantage
The divergence and the move lower from the highs won out. Mrs V missed out on the picture perfect 15 min lh this morning around London open.

This afternoon neg close 1hr, 15 min 3 bar reversal. Out a tad early for +30.

Do you only have to wait for a negative close on the 1hr and then a 3 bar reversal on the 15 minute?

Or do you wait for a 3 bar reversal first on the 1hr and then a 3 bar reversal on the 15 minute?

Are you talking about this candle? (see picture)
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  • #6,167
  • Mar 14, 2013 10:49am Mar 14, 2013 10:49am
Quoting zola
Do you only have to wait for a negative close on the 1hr and then a 3 bar reversal on the 15 minute?

Or do you wait for a 3 bar reversal first on the 1hr and then a 3 bar reversal on the 15 minute?

Are you talking about this candle? (see picture)
In general we would wait for a neg close on 1hr, and some form of dble top, lower high or 3 bar reversal on 15 min. The 15 min could signal on the close of the 1hr or follow it, both are fine. It does not have to be a 3 bar reversal but they happen so often thats why I requested it be written.

On the 1hr no it does not absolutely have to be a 3 bar reversal, like I said they happen so often its a nice alert to have.

The candle you show is not a 3 bar reversal but is a clear rejection of the highs, Mrs V did take that trade.
  • #6,168
  • Mar 14, 2013 11:15pm Mar 14, 2013 11:15pm
Recap 14 Mar

EUR - View was: D closed a 3 bar reversal evening star pattern, still has evidence of divergence. 4hr on lower high lower low flow. Bias down.
There was a move down after London open. With D, 4hr and 1hr showing divergence NY open had a 3 bar reversal and moved up from W S1.

GU - View was: D closed a shooting star, the struggle to go lower continues. The 4hr higher low might get broken when the current candle closes putting us back on a lower high. Still viewing any rallies as chance to sell back into downtrend.
The 4hr higher low won out and moved up. A difficult move to trade with no reasonable 1hr set up candle.

EJ - View was: D closed negative. 4hr had a double top and is now approaching the W Pivot and 123.80 where we bounced up from on Fri. 1hr on lower high lower low and showing positive divergence at the lows. Bias down with the potential to bounce up from support.
Bounced up from support. 1hr higher low after divergence going into London open.
  • #6,169
  • Mar 14, 2013 11:31pm Mar 14, 2013 11:31pm
EUR GU EJ 15 Mar

EUR - Divergence showing on D, 4hr and 1hr saw a move up and positive D close. The W pivots have been strong containers of price this week. 4hr at the moment trying for a higher low on the current open candle. Bias up but there is the potential to reject an upper trend line and W pivot.

GU - Strong D close, 4hr had higher lows after divergence that played out. 1hr on higher high higher low flow also. D upper trend line broken. We stopped at W R1 on an 85/15 trade. Bias up and would like to see yesterdays high break higher as there is always the chance of test of back of trend line or reversal back to down trend.

EJ - D closed a small hammer. 4hr on higher low. Bias up.
  • #6,170
  • Mar 15, 2013 7:44am Mar 15, 2013 7:44am
In EJ at 125.51 and struggling to break the highs for now at least. Didn't get an entry this morning so hopefully we can follow through higher as this is likely to be the only trade of the day.

Wouldn't like to give too much room to downside as a reject of the high could easily hit stop and we have entry with enough to room to exit at BE should the high fail, currently about +20.
  • #6,171
  • Mar 15, 2013 8:03am Mar 15, 2013 8:03am
Quoting Vantage
In EJ at 125.51 and struggling to break the highs for now at least. Didn't get an entry this morning so hopefully we can follow through higher as this is likely to be the only trade of the day.

Wouldn't like to give too much room to downside as a reject of the high could easily hit stop and we have entry with enough to room to exit at BE should the high fail, currently about +20.
W M3 held for an hour, a quick 20 hit and run. Not the biggest trade but EUR was struggling at the RN and UJ was going down which could also give EJ problems following through.

OK 20 a day keeps the doctor away.
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  • #6,172
  • Mar 15, 2013 8:32am Mar 15, 2013 8:32am
Quoting Vantage
W M3 held for an hour, a quick 20 hit and run. Not the biggest trade but EUR was struggling at the RN and UJ was going down which could also give EJ problems following through.

OK 20 a day keeps the doctor away.
UJ fell strongly and stop would have been hit so very happy with that 20 pip smash and grab.
  • #6,173
  • Mar 15, 2013 9:38am Mar 15, 2013 9:38am
Quoting Vantage
In EJ at 125.51 and struggling to break the highs for now at least. Didn't get an entry this morning so hopefully we can follow through higher as this is likely to be the only trade of the day.
Can you explain the entry at 125.51?
I don't see a 3 bar reversal there.



There was also a 3 bar reversal negative hour candle at that time also.

Lol. Just as I think I understand it I get confused again.

  • #6,174
  • Mar 15, 2013 10:22am Mar 15, 2013 10:22am
Quoting zola
Can you explain the entry at 125.51?
I don't see a 3 bar reversal there.



There was also a 3 bar reversal negative hour candle at that time also.

Lol. Just as I think I understand it I get confused again.

Just one of those things yes there was a 3 bar reversal but W M3 was being sticky for a long time and with EUR and UJ at the time going up felt there was another move up back into trend. In hind sight perhaps wasn't the best trade to take as it clouded any vision of selling the double top which had 1hr and 15 min divergence.

Sorry if I've caused some confusion as the basic set up is a solid one.

You don't have to have 3 bar reversals on every single trade, they are just very very common.
  • #6,175
  • Mar 16, 2013 4:07am Mar 16, 2013 4:07am
Recap 15 Mar

EUR - View was: Divergence showing on D, 4hr and 1hr saw a move up and positive D close. The W pivots have been strong containers of price this week. 4hr at the moment trying for a higher low on the current open candle. Bias up but there is the potential to reject an upper trend line and W pivot.
Moved up in line with bias and had a pullback from R2/W R1.

GU - View was: Strong D close, 4hr had higher lows after divergence that played out. 1hr on higher high higher low flow also. D upper trend line broken. We stopped at W R1 on an 85/15 trade. Bias up and would like to see yesterdays high break higher as there is always the chance of test of back of trend line or reversal back to down trend.
Moved up in line with bias to R1 in London session and back down to the days open in US session.

EJ - View was: D closed a small hammer. 4hr on higher low. Bias up.
Moved up in line with bias until the highs over the last week were reached and fell strongly.
  • #6,176
  • Mar 16, 2013 4:23am Mar 16, 2013 4:23am
4hr charts W pivots lower highs/higher lows following divergence

As usual I am posting the 4hr charts to show how important the W pivots and support and resistance levels are. As is typical there were only 2 or 3 decent moves for the week.

I have also added the divergences and when a higher low or lower high follows divergence price action is confirming and they are usually good set ups to trade.
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  • #6,177
  • Mar 17, 2013 2:20pm Mar 17, 2013 2:20pm
Market is really changing. But not in a productive way. Price moves are more chaotic than they were before. it's no more smooth. It may be cause of the speeches or cause of the crisis.
Does anyone else feel the same ?
My Mantra - Go with the flow until a key level is hit
  • #6,178
  • Mar 17, 2013 6:32pm Mar 17, 2013 6:32pm
Quoting money89
Market is really changing. But not in a productive way. Price moves are more chaotic than they were before. it's no more smooth. It may be cause of the speeches or cause of the crisis.
Does anyone else feel the same ?
Cross currents..?? caused by HFT..s??.. i am mainly trading pattens.. very short term..but in answer to your question.. am inclined to agree.. bit like drunken.. what ever..just my opnion of course..
  • #6,179
  • Mar 17, 2013 11:44pm Mar 17, 2013 11:44pm
EUR GU EJ 18 Mar

EUR - We will have to see how the market reacts to Cyprus bailout news. It would not be unusual for the gap to be closed before falling suggesting a move up to 1.3000. For now we stopped at the Dec '12 lows/W M1. There could well be further flight to the $ as a safe haven. No bias as we could close gap or just as easily fall.

GU - D shooting star lower high. 4hr looks like it could have a head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 1.5065. 1hr chart, Asian session could not break the lows. 4hr has signaled a sell short term bias down. If the current candle closes positive that will be a higher low to continue positive flow.

EJ - Same story with EUR. Close gap move higher or continue lower. We'll just have to see which way the market takes us.
  • #6,180
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:26pm Mar 18, 2013 11:26pm
Had some connection issues yesterday and Mrs V missed the EJ move up to close the gap. Oh well next trade please.

Recap 18 Mar

EUR - View was: We will have to see how the market reacts to Cyprus bailout news. It would not be unusual for the gap to be closed before falling suggesting a move up to 1.3000. For now we stopped at the Dec '12 lows/W M1. There could well be further flight to the $ as a safe haven. No bias as we could close gap or just as easily fall.
Gap was filled.

GU - View was: D shooting star lower high. 4hr looks like it could have a head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 1.5065. 1hr chart, Asian session could not break the lows. 4hr has signaled a sell short term bias down. If the current candle closes positive that will be a higher low to continue positive flow.
Small range no follow through.

EJ - View was: Same story with EUR. Close gap move higher or continue lower. We'll just have to see which way the market takes us.
Gap was filled.
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