Attachments: Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

#20,201
Mar 8, 2013 2:23am Mar 8, 2013 2:23am

Vantage
Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 7,195 Posts

Silly analogy coming.

Want to lose weight? Whats more important your diet or exercise?

When I had a personal trainer they said the importance of diet to exercise is 50/50. I can tell you I trained like a dog hardly lost weight at all. Last 6 months lost 10 kg's (22 lb's) with no exercise just a change of diet. So that would seem to make diet 90% and exercise 10% if you want to lose weight.

Believe me the mental side of trading is 90% plus of the battle. Its almost everything, the decision to check your system works believe me its a tough one to pour over hundreds of charts making notes what works what doesn't. The mental toughness to stick to your methodology to see if it will work for you. Following a system on demo and sticking to it because if you don't (OK its not system but I'll just take this one demo trade) you'll have no clue if you can do it live. I could go on.

I was talking rubbish before, trading isn't 90% mental its 100%.

#20,202
Mar 8, 2013 2:24am Mar 8, 2013 2:24am

forextra
| Joined Mar 2013 | Status: Trader | 2 Posts

Hi to all –first post for me. I traded FX full timemany years ago with moderate success. In fact I was short USD on 9/11 when thetwin towers were first hit and made 100’s of pips and thought I was a genius. I veryquickly found out I wasn’t. In fact it was very hard to trade after that - takingsmaller profits and larger losses. I soon lost my way and gave FX away a fewyears later.

But my enthusiasmis now back and I have stumbled across this forum and particularly this thread.I have read the first 100 pages and am impressed with the seeming simplicity ofthe system and the sincerity of the contributors.

I haveskipped to the last few pages to see if thread is still going which it obviouslyis. However, I do note that most, if not all, of the original contributors arenot on the latest pages. I also note that the charts now being posted are a lotdifferent to what I am used to seeing in these first 100 pages.

I wouldappreciate if someone, anyone, could help me expedite my learning on thisthread.

a) Do I need to read all the pages from A to Z?

b) Is therea point in thread where things changed where it would be more pertinent to startmy reading/learning?

c) Have the rules changed a little/lots/completelyfrom the first 100?

d) Why are the charts different?

e) Isloveevry1 still around/on holidays/gone forever?

Anotherthing I have noticed is the apparent arbitrary manner of Trade Management.There seems to be any number of methods for setting SL and TL which is notreally in keeping with the simplicity of this system. Has this been refinedover the next thousand pages?

I am quite preparedto read all the pages if that is what it takes to fully evolve with andunderstand this system. However, it wouldgreat if I could be alerted to what I must read and what is no longer relevantto where this thread has evolved to today.

Many thanksin anticipation. In the meantime I’m onto page 101.

#20,203
Mar 8, 2013 2:41am Mar 8, 2013 2:41am

jordfx
Joined Sep 2012 | Status: Open Sesame! | 881 Posts

Quoting Vantage

Disliked

Silly analogy coming.

Want to lose weight? Whats more important your diet or exercise?

When I had a personal trainer they said the importance of diet to exercise is 50/50. I can tell you I trained like a dog hardly lost weight at all. Last 6 months lost 10 kg's (22 lb's) with no exercise just a change of diet. So that would seem to make diet 90% and exercise 10% if you want to lose weight.

Believe me the mental side of trading is 90% plus of the battle. Its almost everything, the decision to check your system works believe me its a tough one...

Ignored

Thanks for this five star post Vantage! This truth is so deep, I keep finding out more and more each day! It's simply not about any 'system'! It's the psycho;ogy, patience and discipline to plan the trade and trade the plan! So on point!

#20,204
Mar 8, 2013 2:47am Mar 8, 2013 2:47am

Vantage
Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 7,195 Posts

Quoting jordfx

Disliked

It's simply not about any 'system'! It's the psychology, patience and discipline to plan the trade and trade the plan!

Ignored

Exactly, nice one.

I remember reading somewhere that discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishments.

#20,205
Mar 8, 2013 3:08am Mar 8, 2013 3:08am

rober159
Joined May 2012 | Status: pip seeker | 566 Posts

my newbie contribution for EJ

I didn't take that as I was afk, however I always run through reasons why I should/(n't) take trades.
feel free to add

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: Untitled.png
Size: 41 KB

while the objective is profit, the job description is risk management

#20,206
Mar 8, 2013 3:47am Mar 8, 2013 3:47am

jnkarlos
| Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trader | 13 Posts

Greetings to all:

Very good analysis rober159 just one question, what is the name of the indicator 10 ema in all TF.

Thank you very much for sharing your analysis, keep practicing.

Good luck to all

Quoting rober159

Disliked

my newbie contribution for EJ

I didn't take that as I was afk, however I always run through reasons why I should/(n't) take trades.
feel free to add

Ignored

#20,207
Mar 8, 2013 4:03am Mar 8, 2013 4:03am

emmanuel7788
Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 50,234 Posts

Quoting Vantage

Disliked

Silly analogy coming.

Want to lose weight? Whats more important your diet or exercise?

When I had a personal trainer they said the importance of diet to exercise is 50/50. I can tell you I trained like a dog hardly lost weight at all. Last 6 months lost 10 kg's (22 lb's) with no exercise just a change of diet. So that would seem to make diet 90% and exercise 10% if you want to lose weight.

Believe me the mental side of trading is 90% plus of the battle. Its almost everything, the decision to check your system works believe me its a tough...

Ignored

Nice! Coincidence
I too once had a personal trainer at Clark Hatch Fitness Centre. I had wanted to loose some weight and keep fit. I did not lose weight as I had wanted. I developed more muscles, got my 4-packs,biceps, etc. I had not dreamed of. I ended up put on some weight. The personal trainer told me the weight comes form the extra bigger muscles build up. LOL.

What make up a trading system? The trader is in the equation.

Regards,

Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett

#20,208
Mar 8, 2013 4:06am Mar 8, 2013 4:06am

emmanuel7788
Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 50,234 Posts

Quoting forextra

Disliked

Hi to all –first post for me. I traded FX full timemany years ago with moderate success. In fact I was short USD on 9/11 when thetwin towers were first hit and made 100’s of pips and thought I was a genius. I veryquickly found out I wasn’t. In fact it was very hard to trade after that - takingsmaller profits and larger losses. I soon lost my way and gave FX away a fewyears later.

[size=3][font=Calibri]But my enthusiasmis now back and I have stumbled across this forum and particularly this thread.I have...

Ignored

First you need to answer this question:

Since you traded for few years, were you a scalper, day trader, swing trader or position trader?

regards,

Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett

#20,209
Mar 8, 2013 4:36am Mar 8, 2013 4:36am

rober159
Joined May 2012 | Status: pip seeker | 566 Posts

Quoting jnkarlos

Disliked

Greetings to all:

Very good analysis rober159 just one question, what is the name of the indicator 10 ema in all TF.

Thank you very much for sharing your analysis, keep practicing.

Good luck to all

Ignored

thanks jnkarlos, the indicator was posted in this thread some time ago. see attached

ARJUN 10EMA Dashboard v1.00

make sure you change the settings to include the pairs you watch.

Attached File(s)

ARJUN 10EMA Dashboard v1.00.ex4 10 KB | 536 downloads

while the objective is profit, the job description is risk management

#20,210
Mar 8, 2013 4:47am Mar 8, 2013 4:47am

pkimnyc
Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Sniper | 14,770 Posts

Quoting forextra

Disliked

Why are the charts different?

Ignored

you can ignore my posts. my charts have nothing to do with this method, which is the probably the main reason why you are seeing different charts.

#20,211
Mar 8, 2013 6:28pm Mar 8, 2013 6:28pm

emmanuel7788
Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 50,234 Posts

Hi Everyone,

If you have nothing to do this weekend and want to spend time reading this thread posts, good for you.
But you should also run down to your nearest books store or library and get your hands on this book and enjoy a good read.

Have a good weekend!

Attached Image

Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett

#20,212
Mar 8, 2013 8:58pm Mar 8, 2013 8:58pm

lowweiting
| Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Trader | 244 Posts

Quoting emmanuel7788

Disliked

Hi Everyone,

If you have nothing to do this weekend and want to spend time reading this thread posts, good for you.
But you should also run down to your nearest books store or library and get your hands on this book and enjoy a good read.

Have a good weekend!

Ignored

how about u give us some exercise ????

#20,213
Mar 9, 2013 12:20am Mar 9, 2013 12:20am

forextra
| Joined Mar 2013 | Status: Trader | 2 Posts

Quoting emmanuel7788

Disliked

First you need to answer this question:

Since you traded for few years, were you a scalper, day trader, swing trader or position trader?

regards,

Ignored

Hi emmanuel7788 - Good question. I considered myself a day trader which is what I believe this system is about - at least the 15min as it started out. In fact I learnt trading shares and options with a large group called DaytraderHQ. A lot of us traded warrants so we could trade both sides of the market. A handful of us decided to switch to FX because it was 24/5 and suited our timeframes. We used MetaStock to do our analysis and backtesting.
We used H1 with EMA's to determine trend and S/R. We didn't worry too much then about Pivots, Fibonacci or even RN. We also looked for head and shoulders and divergence. Used ADX-R as the indicator. Can't even remember what our settings were. We entered on 5 min chart using EMA cross with ADX as confirmation. But that was 2003 and about all I can remember. Quite happy to forget all that and start afresh.
As far as now starting out again I am happy to be, in fact I want to be, treated as a total newbie. I have no pride or ego when it comes to re-learning FX. The only thing I can hang my hat on is that I understand FX terminology and I can read FX charts. I also did a course on candlesticks with Louise Bedford and still have her book (among many others) on my bookshelf. So that may be of some assistance.
I live in Perth, Western Australia so the London-New York times suit perfectly with my current day job. Although I have noticed towards the end of the first 100 pages a push towards the JPY crosses with Tokyo open. Certainly there have been some very clinical entries and runs on USDJPY recently.
So, day trader is the presumption but given that I will only be doing this part time in the foreseeable future I am more than happy to be guided on HTF.
Unless advised otherwise I will continue to read all pages. I only manage to get through 20-30 pages a night as I analyse all the thoughts and charts to make sure I am seeing and understand what needs to be. So 1300 pages will take many weeks but thoroughly engrossing thus far.
Any and all input is much appreciated.
Have a great weekend all.

#20,214
Mar 9, 2013 8:19pm Mar 9, 2013 8:19pm

Dehyah
| Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Percentage in points getter | 439 Posts

Quoting emmanuel7788

Disliked

Excellent question ... Dehyah,

To grow capital compounding from starting $10k trading to reach $200k, just purely using intraday trades alone on EURUSD , it will need at least 1200 trades with a win rate of 50% minimum and R of 50pips per trade. On average 5 trades per week, that means 5 years of highly disciplined continuous trading.

With that long 5 years of trading experience, the trader would have developed that mental fitness to trade a $200K account and still use the same risk 1%.

Whether your risk amount is $100 or $2000 per...

Ignored

Yeah man.Thanks fi di response.

With God all things are possible.

#20,215
Mar 10, 2013 3:20am Mar 10, 2013 3:20am

jordfx
Joined Sep 2012 | Status: Open Sesame! | 881 Posts

Some food for thot this weekend.........

A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:
1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)
2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)
They happen regardless of time frame
They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear that if found out by others, they might cease to exist.

WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"
Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!
We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?
We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?
We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?
We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?
The list is almost endless.
As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

#20,216
Mar 10, 2013 7:38am Mar 10, 2013 7:38am