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Beyond the Candles

  • #1,081
  • Mar 8, 2013 1:55am Mar 8, 2013 1:55am
AUDNZD WEEKLY:

P is above 1.2365, the most important level, but we have to see it close above it first as confirmation, if it closes above it, then the confluence of two tend lines could be the final target, of course, this is counter trend, we need to use strict MM and use small stop loss.

AUDNZD DAILY

P is now trying to breach out of the small area, if it break out it successfully, of course the TG will be near 1.25.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzdw.jpg Size: 135 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD DAILY.jpg Size: 140 KB
  • #1,082
  • Mar 9, 2013 1:20am Mar 9, 2013 1:20am
BEOB in D on close of Friday. Still valid signal to enter long?


Quoting fxgroup
The truth time !
  • #1,083
  • Mar 9, 2013 11:03am Mar 9, 2013 11:03am
Quoting fxgroup
AUDUSD-part 1

The P reached a very important level and in overall image it is stuck within the triangle. We don't have to jump in, because this is purely suicide, for those who are allready short it is time for MM. All we have to do is to wait the P to close bellow the level+ RET+ seller confirmation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.png Size: 47 KB

Hi all,
The first time I post here. I've been following the thread from several months. Congratulations, great job.

My chart is AUDUSD.

WPD Range Market
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd w.gif Size: 29 KB

Weekly candle closed above 1.0197 level. P has made a double bottom (wher you see the 2 yellow arrows), so if we have confirmation the P is going to upper RM level but first to TL (WPG).
In this thread you always talk about confirmation. My question is what will be the confirmation of the DB in order to perform a long trade?
Some days ago the scenario was different if the P close below 1.0197 level.
Thanks
  • #1,084
  • Mar 9, 2013 11:52am Mar 9, 2013 11:52am
Quoting sodiska
BEOB in D on close of Friday. Still valid signal to enter long?
If I understand the chart you refer to:

You want all 3 time frames to concord before you open a position. In particular, you shall never enter long on a BEOB. There is one (1) case that I know that you could do that with an advanced tecniquie but it'd require you to be super-proficient at price reading, some years worth of daily training.
Also, draw a weekly level and trend line, you will see you are below them and in a trafficked (read: messy = buyers vs sellers battle = stay out).

Next time, if you could, please avoid posting a chart please repeat the currency you are talking about as I don't read this thread every day and I get lost tracking quotes of quotes.
  • #1,085
  • Mar 10, 2013 4:28am Mar 10, 2013 4:28am
EURJPY

Monthly chart

[Attachment #1]


What Price is Doing (WPD)
Price has closed above a monthly range market (M RM). The yellow dashed line shows an important liquidity level that affected the RM development. Price is currently between two important levels: 120 and 125 BRN. There's actually a third level involved, the monthly level RN 121. This levels proximity creates big buyers vs sellers battles and uncertainty bars. We may see this effect at play in 2008 and 2010.

Such levels range = big battles = danger = stay out and wait for price to close above it and then seek for long trades (with the trend).


Weekly chart

[Attachment #2]

What Price is Doing (WPD)
The weekly chart tells about the same information we could see on the monthly chart. Moreover it's possible to see how price retraced on 120 BRN, in confluence with the RM below.

Price met a strong resistance at the weekly level 127.76. That level and its powerful influence are explained by the second weekly chart [Attachment #3]. It's possible to see how in 2009 that level acted as very strong support for a weekly RM. Moreover it has also played as resistance for the RM before the weekly RM and as swing for a subsequent swing.

Back to the present, price formed a 2 weeks bullish PB. However it closed below 125 BRN and this, along with the traffic (well evident on the daily chart) might cause price's evolution to slow down a lot.




Daily chart

[Attachment #4]

What Price is Doing (WPD)
This chart shows the weekly level effects quite well: both as resistance and as static RM resistance around 125 BRN.
Moreover it's possible to see a recently broken triangle that pushed price back inside the static RM.
Because of all those interactions, of the small RM dimensions and of the well visible traffic (very tight swings on February) it's really inadvisable to initiate a trade. The best time to seek for (in trend) bullish entries would be once price closed above the weekly 127.76 level and setup a bullish price action.

Where Price is Going (WPG)
Wait for bullish trade opportunities after price closed above the weekly level 127.76 and put a retracement plus a price action pattern.

If this will happen, because of the weekly RM formed on 2009 (see the second weekly chart), price will give a nice trading opportunity from such 2009 RM support to its resistance.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-03-09_EURJPY_M_01.png Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-03-09_EURJPY_W_01.png Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-03-09_EURJPY_W_02.png Size: 57 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-03-09_EURJPY_D_01.png Size: 34 KB
  • #1,086
  • Mar 10, 2013 7:13am Mar 10, 2013 7:13am
Thank you dfumagalli, great analysis, I have added a W RM support line for easier detection.

Additionally, BIG thank you for the video.

If anyone is interested we could create a Forum exclusively dedicated to fxgroup´s way of looking at Price/Charts.

It would be free & anyone really serious could create a Journal, with you and fxgroup dropping in as " Sensei " to comment. ;-)

Just an idea....

Mike
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-03-10_1255_eurjpy_weekly.png Size: 82 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-03-10_1307_eurjpy_D.png Size: 66 KB
Be like water.
  • #1,087
  • Mar 10, 2013 8:23am Mar 10, 2013 8:23am
AUDJPY


Most interesting of M, W & D is definitely the Monthly, as we can see how near it is to major sellers area. Thus no risk-free trade for me, above 99.04 we are entering the sellers zone, and just as likely could be a retrace down to 95.00 BRN.

Interesting pair, as it often is seen as " barometer " for general risk-on / risk-off - and it clearly mirrors the high-flying US Indices.

Take care,

Mike

Attachments : AUDJPY Monthly, Weekly, Daily.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-03-10_1359_AUDJPY_M.png Size: 81 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-03-10_1412_audjpy_w.png Size: 80 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-03-10_1415-audjpy_D.png Size: 61 KB
Be like water.
  • #1,088
  • Mar 10, 2013 10:26am Mar 10, 2013 10:26am
Noted, thanks for the advice and input, i will remember to post charts for future discussion.


Quoting dfumagalli
If I understand the chart you refer to:

You want all 3 time frames to concord before you open a position. In particular, you shall never enter long on a BEOB. There is one (1) case that I know that you could do that with an advanced tecniquie but it'd require you to be super-proficient at price reading, some years worth of daily training.
Also, draw a weekly level and trend line, you will see you are below them and in a trafficked (read: messy = buyers vs sellers battle = stay out).

Next time, if you could, please avoid posting a chart please...
  • #1,089
  • Mar 11, 2013 6:59am Mar 11, 2013 6:59am
Natural gas, coming close to an important level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-03-11_NG_M_01.png Size: 20 KB
  • #1,090
  • Mar 11, 2013 10:00am Mar 11, 2013 10:00am
Hi dfumagalli/fxgroup, P in W formed a PB, with equal long head and tail. It NCB M S at 1.0195, I am thinking to look for long trade, but the PB with equal head/tail, is that something to worry about?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdweekly.png Size: 38 KB
  • #1,091
  • Mar 11, 2013 10:57am Mar 11, 2013 10:57am
[quote=sodiska;6505956]
Quote
Hi dfumagalli/fxgroup, P in W formed a PB, with equal long head and tail. It NCB M S at 1.0195, I am thinking to look for long trade, but the PB with equal head/tail, is that something to worry about?
The fact that you have both head and tail with same dimensions that means within the market are buyers and sellers and the candle is not a PB, it is a DOJI = indecision !
EURAUD-this week candle closed within the previous candle's range and this is a sign of a battle beteew buyers and sellers and we have to wait for further information.....I never said we have to long or short it..all I said is truth time this means that the P reach a crucial level where we will find out if the buyers will give us the H&S's confirmation or the sellers will take the market's control.
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,092
  • Mar 11, 2013 11:06am Mar 11, 2013 11:06am
Quoting msmarple
Thank you dfumagalli, great analysis, I have added a W RM support line for easier detection.

Additionally, BIG thank you for the video.

If anyone is interested we could create a Forum exclusively dedicated to fxgroup´s way of looking at Price/Charts.

It would be free & anyone really serious could create a Journal, with you and fxgroup dropping in as " Sensei " to comment. ;-)

Just an idea....

Mike
EURJPY-we have a 2WPB @ the RM S...a close above 127.50 we will look for 138.50 as the next target.
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,093
  • Mar 11, 2013 5:02pm Mar 11, 2013 5:02pm
Here are 2 pair I am watching . GBPAUD has pushed thru the MRM S and I will be watching to see if Buyers push price back into range, or if sellers are stronger and retest RM S now R for further price movement down. GBPCAD has not made it there yet but is close . I will be watching for the reaction at the RMS to see again if price will be pushed out of the RM for a retest of S now R or back into the RM

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EA.png Size: 35 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GC.png Size: 34 KB
Always Learning
  • #1,094
  • Mar 12, 2013 3:08am Mar 12, 2013 3:08am
GBPAUD-the pair is in a strong bearish trend in all the TFs and a close bellow the 1.45 BRN will give us the opportunity to jump back in the main trend. Be carefull with eventually long positions because of the strong bearish trend.
GBPCAD-we at S level.......is the S of a zone with high volatility what did the MM very difficult. A close below 1.5240 and its confirmation as R will make the 1.50 and 1.4830 the next TGs.
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,095
  • Mar 12, 2013 3:13am Mar 12, 2013 3:13am
Quoting fxgroup
GBPAUD-the pair is in a strong bearish trend in all the TFs and a close bellow the 1.45 BRN will give us the opportunity to jump back in the main trend. Be carefull with eventually long positions because of the strong bearish trend.
GBPCAD-we at S level.......is the S of a zone with high volatility what did the MM very difficult. A close below 1.5240 and its confirmation as R will make the 1.50 and 1.4830 the next TGs.
Thanks
Always Learning
  • #1,096
  • Mar 12, 2013 3:21am Mar 12, 2013 3:21am
Noted. Thank you again.



[quote=fxgroup;6506102]
Quoting sodiska
The fact that you have both head and tail with same dimensions that means within the market are buyers and sellers and the candle is not a PB, it is a DOJI = indecision !
EURAUD-this week candle closed within the previous candle's range and this is a sign of a battle beteew buyers and sellers and we have to wait for further information.....I never said we have to long or short it..all I said is truth time this means that the P reach a crucial level where we will find out if the buyers will give us the H&S's confirmation...
  • #1,097
  • Mar 12, 2013 3:49am Mar 12, 2013 3:49am
[quote=fxgroup;6506102]
Quoting sodiska
The fact that you have both head and tail with same dimensions that means within the market are buyers and sellers and the candle is not a PB, it is a DOJI = indecision !
EURAUD-this week candle closed within the previous candle's range and this is a sign of a battle beteew buyers and sellers and we have to wait for further information.....I never said we have to long or short it..all I said is truth time this means that the P reach a crucial level where we will find out if the buyers will give us the H&S's confirmation...

Fxgroup thank you !

Because of this I stayed out of this pair, thanks to you I didn`t buy in to this indecision, although I must admit that I planted a small seed ( Italian olive tree ) for a further recovery in this pair,..... but nasty and vicious AUD makes it very difficult to grow....

Mike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-03-12_0943_euruad_W.png Size: 18 KB
Be like water.
  • #1,098
  • Mar 13, 2013 10:52am Mar 13, 2013 10:52am
AUDSGD
The P is in RM and the monthly DBLHC what did a 2WPB also gives us the bullish direction. I will wait the P at 1.3120 level in order to buy it till the 1.35.
Notice how the DBLHC with the PB from 2012.10.01 made a DB=RM with 1.31 as R also !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: as.png Size: 32 KB
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,099
  • Mar 13, 2013 11:39am Mar 13, 2013 11:39am
Hi, I hope u don't mind if I ask a silly question, since P is at bottom of RM and there is a bullish bar, wouldn't it be a good idea to enter long now?


Quoting fxgroup
AUDSGD
The P is in RM and the monthly DBLHC what did a 2WPB also gives us the bullish direction. I will wait the P at 1.3120 level in order to buy it till the 1.35.
Notice how the DBLHC with the PB from 2012.10.01 made a DB=RM with 1.31 as R also !
  • #1,100
  • Mar 14, 2013 7:46am Mar 14, 2013 7:46am
Quoting sodiska
Hi, I hope u don't mind if I ask a silly question, since P is at bottom of RM and there is a bullish bar, wouldn't it be a good idea to enter long now?
There are no silly questions.....the answer to your question is YES...but non at any cost.....we have to establish a solid PTT&TTP (levels, MM, TGS )and to stick with it !
Nothing personal,just business
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