B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

Like antaly said it's been tested once already, but I still have it marked up anyway. I think there's a good chance of a second bounce when price returns though if you look at how strongly it left last time it was tested. Would count it as a second test though.

Have a trade here on E/J, already tightened my stop though as I can't see price having any business above the high. I think one thing that Kenneth does that I'm not proficient at yet is bailing on trades that aren't behaving correctly...I think the savings from that are significant.

Edit: Out of this one...price still pushing higher.

thanks once again, learning everyday new things . Aus/usd going to hit 1.0260 level without coming down to estimate demand level .

Went long a 2 lot for a small scalp trade on the JPY.. The overall picture as I see it.. We are in an uptrend on the Daily.. Price has hit the most recent Demand on the Daily at 91.11 area on 2.25.2013.. PA is ranging so we should see a move back to the top of the range. We have a fresh Demand area at 93.91 Daily..So the wind is at our back.. Or we can ask.. If we just bounced off a Demand level, where is the next level price may go to..??

Had a series of HL's preceding the Demand area where I took the long. Endured a little pain on some retrace...patience ... eventually price moved in our favor.

Total pipage 19 for 2 lot. Our SL was 4 pip.. So we had around a 2:1 R/R.

Good trading to all

TSD

nice trade TSD

What I've started to notice is that when a level is about to fail, you just don't see a lot of opposing market orders being placed. Price kind of just sits along the edge of where the order stack is at (white space left in the zone) and chips away at it in chunks with minimal push back. When a level is still solid though we see competition to get the best price with the opposing market orders coming in and quickly pushing price back. Anybody else want to comment on this and perhaps other things they've noticed?

Hi Sariya!

The level you took your trade off is a small DBD M30 level, which isn't considered as very strong.

When you look at the chart below you can also see that price bounced off a beautiful and strong D1 level right before reaching your level. Nothing any M30 level can deal with...

One of the few opportunities available today from my perspective. NFP and Fitch downgrade really screwed the short term charts up. AUD/JPY, hoping to get an entry, wanted to see it react first.

Edit: Stopped out. Can't catch a break today.

Tried again just a little ways up and so far so good....

Thank you Peter for reply. Is that strong level means daily or 4hr. levels? Sorry if I'm asking stupid question . Eventhough I've started to trade for 3 years my account is still negative and struggling. After found this thread (still studying) getting some hope for positive so please help me and thanks once again to kenneth lee and all of you for this wonderful thread.

I liked Kanzler set up.



I would like to add some observations on the AUD/JPY if I may.

Something I call Pattern w/in Pattern ..Simply if you look at the Weekly.. Daily too.. I know that will seem a big jump from a 5, 10, 30M TF but bare with me if you will. If we look at the Weekly TF we see that the larger pattern is decidedly up or in the RISE stage of the a DROP-BASE-RISE Pattern. Looking left we see a very strong drop from 103.92 to 89.62 area..Basically vertical. Before price stalled for a bit the took off short again..So looking at this in reverse 89.62 upwards...there is nothing ( S/R areas ) to slow price down coming back into the Supply Level above.

So how does this help us trade ?

1) The trend is "up" based on the Pattern w/in Pattern or Drop-Base-Rise pattern on the Weekly. PA is in the Rise.
2) There is not much to slow price down .. Look Left ( S/R stall levels ) Possible acceleration into the above Supply Level.. We want to see that.
3) Price breaking out of the range from 72-90 we should also see some reasonably strong PA into Supply.
4) You will notice that when trading the S/D method..Supply and Demand areas tend to act like magnets for price to return to. Especially when the pattern is really obvious.
5) We trade with the trend for the higher probability trades.
6) If we take Counter trend trades we set our target smaller and cut our losses quickly.


Weekly Supply is the 105 - 107 areas ( everyone will most likely be a lilttel different on the exact based your data/broker )

Now let's step down to the Daily 105.42.. Next is the 103.75 but that has been taken out...What we may see as price approaches is " Level on Level" or Stacked levels.....KL speaks to this.. taking the trades from the farthest level out..

Notice the top of this range is the 107 area.. I find trades are a higher probability when PA is ranging if I can trade from a Supply/Demand level that is also close to either the upper or lower part of the range.

So if ?? we see retracements into Demand Levels .. Time time to get long whe n trading the smaller TF.. Hopefully the SM get active and take price into the Supply... Adds to the strength of the move.

Yes there are those who will point out that trend is obvious based on the weekly being up.. and because we are trading the smaller TF 30M this all we need to know...

I will not disagree...I simply offer up a another way to look at the patterns that form within the S/D method of trading.

Good trading to all

TSD

Hello TSD,

What about if you show it on chart?

chart

My best stab at this.

very good and then add this to it

chart

Plus add this.

Thanks for continuing to add these 'quiz' type posts, they help boost my confidence that I'm seeing things correctly. Swap areas are something I struggle to see sometimes.

Ok.. So here a screen shot of the weekly. Drop-Base-Rise pattern



Here is the 1HR



Notations on the 1HR. We could do the same for 30M or 15M.. Yes there would be variations as to what to look for = spread of candle as it relates to volume or candle pattern as it relates to volume. The point...This is a good representation of the Pattern w/in the Pattern..It is very apparent that the SM's are thinking the same way as you see their powerful moves down indicating buying into weakness




Now lets look at the 4 Up arrows that precede the Supply area..we see volume spikes but the spread of the candles is all very narrow/weak. We see no real interest by the SM's over the preceding 3 day prior to entering the Supply level..No interest in a Counter Trend move.

Hope this helps

TSD

Took this long based on the previous statements made on this pair. We are still in with a 2 lot.

TSD

Hi ken,
great trade. One question how do you filter bad supply demand trades using hh,hl,ll and lh?