GAINSY Hottest Forecasts

(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png GBP Hit 2-Year Low, Euro Struggles To Break Key $1.30

European currencies weakened despite positive economic data as the upcoming ECB and the BoE announcements present modest downside risk for the euro and pound respectively while the U.S. dollar stands as the best performer across the board....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png U.K. Treasury Says Osborne May Consider A Change In BOE Framework

U.K. Treasury announced on Thursday that Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will announce a change to the existing monetary structure, as U.K. policy makers debate a revamp to the Bank of England’s responsibilities....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png What Can We Expect From The ECB's Euro?

On the surface, investors seem content that their expectations of more stimuli from the ECB and the BoJ, or in fact any central bank, is again helping to contain their reaction to Italian political and event stress. However, between some of the different asset classes there seems to be disconnect,...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Japan: BoJ on Hold, New Leadership to Decide Easing Strategy

As expected, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) did not announce any additional easing in connection with today's monetary meeting. Specifically, the target for asset purchases by end-2013 was left unchanged at JPY76trn and the target for the O/N money market rate (the leading interest rate) was also left unchanged at...

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Canadian January Trade Better than Expected

The January 2013 merchandise trade deficit of $0.2 billion was better than the $0.6 billion expected. As well, the deficit in December was revised significantly lower to $0.3 billion relative to the previously reported $0.9 billion. Encouragingly, exports rose a solid $0.8 billion (2.1%) although it was almost fully offset...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png U.S. Trade Deficit Widened as Exports Dipped and Imports Rose

In January 2013, the US trade deficit widened to $44.5 billion from $38.1 billion in December 2012. December's gap was revised from an originally reported $38.5 billion. Expectations had been for a modest deterioration to $42.6 billion. The widening resulted from exports falling by $2.2 billion (-1.2%) while imports increased by $4.1 billion...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png ECB and BOE Continued to Keep the Powder Dry in March
(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

Both the ECB and the BOe left their monetary stance unchanged. ECB President Draghi expected the Eurozone should return to growth in 2014 with the forecast range between 0-2%. Inflation next year would range from 0.6% to 2%. The BOE announced to keep the Bank Rate at 0.5% and the...

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(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3050

Euro’s intra-day rally on ECB press conference and the breach of this bank week’s high of 1.3075 suggest a temporary low has been formed and consolidation with upside bias is seen for retracement of recent decline to 1.3125-30, then towards 1.3150, however, still previous resistance at 1.3163 would hold on first testing and bring retreat later...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Wrap-up: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5000

Despite intra-day intiial brief fall to 1.4965, as the British pound found support above there again in London and has recoiled strongly in tandem with euro, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and test of the Ichimoku cloud (now at 1.5112-14) cannot be ruled out, however, fracture there is needed to signal a temporary low is formed and bring a stronger recoil to yesterday’s high of 1.5156 but reckon this bank week’s high of 1.5200 would hold from here...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Wrap-up: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9370 or sell at 0.9475

USD’s retreat after intra-day marginal rise to 0.9489 suggests a temporary top is possibly formed there and consolidation below there would be seen with mild downside bias for retracement to 0.9395 support and possibly to 0.9370-75 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9186-0.9489), however, renewed buying interests should emerge there and bring another upmove later. A fracture of 0.9489 would signal the upmove from 0.9024 low has resumed and extend gain to 0.9500-10, then 0.9540-50 but loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond latter level and bring correction later...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png London Session: ECB and BOE Wrap
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

The ECB and BOE both kept monetary policy on hold in March, which has helped to boost the EUR and GBP this afternoon. Although the majority in the market expected the ECB and BOE to remain on hold, there was a small chance of a rate cut at the ECB...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png ECB Meeting: Data are Soft - Draghi is Not
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

The ECB has kept all rates unchanged. The Governing Council had a discussion on cutting rates but the consensus was not to. The overall message from Mario Draghi seems to be that as long as the medium-term outlook is okay the ECB will not cut rates further but the ECB...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Daily Statement: USD/JPY Breaks 95 ahead of NFP
(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

JPY's weakness is back to be the main theme in the markets today as USD/JPY soars through 95 psychological level. This bank week's job market data from US raised the expectation of a solid non-farm payroll report today. Economists expect NFP to show 158k growth in February while unemployment rate is...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Elliott Wave Forecast: EUR/JPY – Buy at 123.80
(GAINSY Elliott Wave Analysis)

Yesterday’s rally adds credence to our view that a temporary low has been formed at 118.80 last bank week as the bottom of wave iv and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to resistance at 125.90, however, fracture there is needed to retain bullishness and bring further gain to 126.55-60,...

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(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 94.50

As the greenback has surged again and broke above previous chart resistance at 94.99, suggesting recent uptrend is still in progress and further gain to 95.77-80 (100%...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3005

Yesterday’s rally after ECB press conference and the subsequent breach of this bank week’s high of 1.3075 suggest a temporary low has been formed at 1.2967 earlier and con...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Update: GBP/USD – Hold long entered at 1.5000

Despite yesterday’s strong recoil to 1.5083, the subsequent retreat turned out to be deeper than expected in part due to cross-selling in sterling against euro, suggesting c...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9355 or sell at 0.9485

Yesterday’s retreat from 0.9489 suggests a temporary top is possibly formed there and consolidation below there would be seen with mild downside bias for retracement to 0...

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png US February Employment Statement Preview

On Friday, March 8, at 0830ET/1330GMT the US is forecasted to report a change in non-farm payrolls (NFP) of +163K (prior +157K; range +121/225K), a change in private payrolls of +170K (prior +166K; range +129K/+235K), and a steady unemployment rate of 7.9% (prior 7.9%; range 7.7/8.0%), according to Bloomberg market...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png China's Exports Soar And JPY Reaches New Heights

China's exporters had another great month in February, with exports rising a massive 21.8% over the month. However, imports were down 15.2% over the same period. The headline trade surplus was $15.2bn in February, down from a $29.15 surplus in January but more than the $6.9bn deficit that was expected....

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png GBP/USD: GBP Gained On BoE Action, Draghi Remarks, Trading Lower This Morning

The pair is expected to find support at 1.4943, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.4896. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.5060, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.5130....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png USD/CHF: Swissy Trading Lower, CPI Data Awaited In Switzerland

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9408, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9367. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9490, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9531....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png USD/CAD: Loonie Rose On Positive Canadian Trade Data

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0290, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0268. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0328, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0344....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png AUD/USD: Chinese Imports Data Fuels Concerns For Aussie

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0222, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0201. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0278, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0313....

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png EUR/USD: Euro Gained As ECB Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, Trading Lower In The Asian Session

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3010, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2929. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3146, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3201....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png No Policy Action, Sharp FX Moves

The Asian markets closed the bank week in positive territories as Chinese trade balance surprised to the upside. The Chinese exports increased by 21.8% (well above 8.1% expected), while the imports shrank 15.2%, twice the estimates in February. In Japan, the GDP did not change in the fourth quarter, while the...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Euro Rebounds Even As ECB's Draghi Kept A Soft Tone

EUR/USD jumped higher during the ECB press conference even as ECB's Draghi repeated that the ECB policy will remain accommodative as long as needed. Sterling lost against the euro and failed to gain on the dollar even as the BoE didn't raise the program of asset purchases. Today, the payrolls...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png European Stocks Climb On Strong Data, Ahead U.S. NFP Statement

European shares gained softly Friday morning ahead of U.S. nonfarm payroll report which will be closely watched as a health gauge of U.S. jobs market and expected to show growth in the U.S. labor sector, following fresh signs of Chinese and Japanese economic growth....

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Intraday Statement: USD Soars on Strong NFP, Unemployment Rate Hit 5-Year Low
(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

USD surges against yen and European majors in early US session after release of much stronger than expected job data. Non-farm payroll showed an impressive 236k growth in the US employment market in February, much stronger than expectation of 158k. January's figure was revised down from 157k to 119k but...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Elliott Wave Forecast: USD/CAD – Buy at 1.0190
(GAINSY Elliott Wave Analysis)

Current retreat has retained our view that further consolidation below last bank week’s high of 1.0343 would be seen and near term downside risk remains for pullback to 1.0212-17 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9999-1.0343 and previous support), however, renewed buying interests should emerge around 1.0185-90 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0

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(GAINSY Ichimoku Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Wrap-up: USD/JPY – Buy at 95.00

As the greenback has finally retreated after intra-day rally to 96.60 in part due to the release of strong U.S. data, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 95.47) is likely, below would bring correction to 95.15-20 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 92.92-96.60) but reckon previous chart resistance at 94.99 would limit downside and bring another upmove later. A fracture of said resistance at 96.60 would extend upmove towards 97.00, however, reckon 97.50-55 (1.618 times projection of 90.88-93.73 measuring from 92.92) would cap upside...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Forex Signal Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3050

Euro’s selloff from 1.3135 on dollar’s broad-based strength after the release of stronger-than-expected NFP and the breach of 1.2967 support signal recent decline from 1.3711 has resumed and further weakness to 1.2945-50 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.2900-05 (50% projection of 1.3434-1.2967 measuring from 1.3135) and risk from there is seen for another corrective recoil to take place later...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Greenback Pushes JPY To Fresh Multi-Year Low Before NFP
(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

The dollar outpaced most of its traded counterparts on Friday, as the euro erased early gains, while the yen plunged to lowest level in three-and-a-half years ahead of the U.S. employment report due later on Friday. The Japanese currency lost ground to the greenback today, following the Bank of Japan’s...

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(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Key Event: US Nonfarm Payrolls

The currency markets were dominated by large moves post-BoE and ECB policy announcements yesterday. Euro and sterling registered sharp rallies, yet failed to extend gains overnight. JPY saw heavy sell-off. USDJPY finally crossed over 95.00 on the back of no policy action out of Europe. In Switzerland, Swissy extended weakness...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png What's the NFP Game Plan? Is JPY to Take the Lead?

Investing is greatly influenced by emotion and perception. The market view has current sentiment ever rising, as the mood ahead of this morning's non-farm payroll remains relatively upbeat after US data this bank week showed private sector job growth for February with an increase of +198k, higher than January and above...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Nonfarm Payrolls: Another Gain Signals Continued Growth

Nonfarm employment increased by 236,000 jobs in February and averaged 191,000 over the past three months. January's job gain was revised down to 119,000, but an upward revision in December led to a net decline of only 15,000. Gains were evident across most key sectors including manufacturing, construction and business...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Canadian Housing Starts Rebounded in February

Canadian housing starts jumped 13.7% to 180,700 annualized units in February 2013 partially to reverse the sizable 19.4% decline recorded in January that had brought homebuilding activity to a three and a half year low of 159,000 annualized units. Market expectations were for a modest recoil in the month to...

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Practice brings dividends in the form of Ferrari, theory brings bad eyesight, bald spot and diseases

(GAINSY Fundamental Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Canadian Employment Soars in February

The booming job growth that was evident during the second half of 2012 returned in February 2013 after a short retracement in January. In fact, the 50,700 jump in February was even stronger than the 36,800 average monthly increase that was achieved during the second half of 2012 and more...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png U.S. Payroll Employment up in February

Payroll employment jumped by a stronger than expected 236,000 in February 2013, which was the strongest monthly gain since November. This followed a downwardly revised 119,000 (was 157,000) gain in January but an upwardly revised 219,000 (was 196,000) gain in December 2012 and November’s 247,000 jump. Private employment jumped by...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Weekly Focus: ECB signals low for long

As expected, the European Central Bank kept all rates unchanged. The Governing Council discussed cutting rates but the consensus was not to as the council is content with the medium-term outlook for the euro area economy. The Bank of England kept its policy in terms of rates and asset purchases unchanged...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Payrolls Show US Firing on all Cylinders

The outliers are always the most exciting when it comes to payrolls and that is what we got in this morning's NFP. The number smashed expectations and came in at 236k, more than 70k higher than expectations of 165k. Even our above consensus estimate at 215k was exceeded. Crucially the...

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(GAINSY Technical Analysis)

http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Weekly Stocktaking and Forecast: Economic Data Sent DOW to Record High, USD/JPY Heading to 100

Markets were dominated by strong equities, strong dollar and weak yen last bank week. It's clear that economic data fro US showed impressive improvements in the US economy. Meanwhile, the top two Fed officials, Bernanke and Yellen had indicated recently that the central bank would leave stimulus in place while data...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Daily Statement: USD Firm Together With Risk Sentiments

Asian equities are broadly higher following the strong close in US last bank week where DOW hit another record high. USD stays firm against other major currencies but is stuck in tight range so far. A main focus today is on whether risk rallies would take USD/JPY higher after taking out...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png China Surprisingly Recorded Trade Surplus In February

China surprisingly recorded trade surplus in February, this first time in February since 2010. Trade surplus of US$ 15.3B, driven by -12.4% decline in exports and -15.2% drop in imports, was better than expectations. Indeed, the 2 working days’ difference between February 2013 and February 2012, the market had anticipated...

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http://www.gainsy.com/templates/sj_w.../icons/usd.png Elliott Wave Forecast: EUR/JPY – Buy at 123.50
(GAINSY Elliott Wave Analysis)

Although the single currency recoiled after falling to 123.81-82 (just missed our entry at 123.80), above 125.50-55 is needed to signal the retreat from 125.98 (Friday’s high) has ended and bring retest of this level, once this resistance is penetrated, this would signal recent upmove has resumed and extend gain...

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Practice brings dividends in the form of Ferrari, theory brings bad eyesight, bald spot and diseases