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Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

  • #20,181
  • Mar 7, 2013 1:57pm Mar 7, 2013 1:57pm
Quoting kbforex
ARJUN may you be blessed whereever you are.
Emmanuel7788, what can i say, i wish Arjun was till aroud to see the genuine good stuffs you are SHARING here. THANK YOU!!!

GBPUSD

Pls guys , lookng at the 4hrs bullish candle that breaks throw 10ema, was actually looking for a buy after 15mn retracement to 200ema , then a bullish candlestick pattern to LONG at or on 200ema 15mns..ALTHOUGH Daily n weekly both bearish biase/candle.
just want to know if am analysing this properly?
any idea comment wud highly be appreciated.

also, [color=red]did...
it's your crokers data feed that got screwed up. how can there be a gap in forex market?
  • #20,182
  • Mar 7, 2013 3:33pm Mar 7, 2013 3:33pm
Quoting Britpip7
Always watch for the higher time frames to see the higher trends. Any M15 moves against the higher trends can just be a pause / minor pull back. Monitoring with the three timeframes is a great way to keep it all together
Thanks EMMANUELL and to Britpip...I have had another look and read your advice,

So the 4 hour chart is the first one to look at.....then....
note the movement on the 1 hour and THEN check the 15 min...a confirmation signal on TDI, line them up and go.

Does that sound a bit better.....????

I have looked at the arrows on the candle wicks, are these demark lines...???

Should I be looking at the lower lows, higher highs , etc.

There was a time, earlier in the thread, when it was trading by colours....green crosses red crosses yellow..BUY, etc,

This is now an in depth approach to trading which is a great learning curve,
Cheers, Steve
  • #20,183
  • Mar 7, 2013 4:03pm Mar 7, 2013 4:03pm
Quoting Lancaster
I have a question for the collective,

(First post btw, thanks to all for a great thread)~

When it comes to making a CT into the 200 EMA, I remember from reading the materials that you want a gap of at least 60 pips looking at the 15M charts. Does this translate into high TFs like the 4H or D? And if so is there a recommended gap bigger than 60 on those?


Thanks in advance,

Sorry if this was covered and I just missed it, there's a ton of information to digest here!

Lan
Hi, I know how you feel about the ton of information and it being hard to digest...!!!!

It is very difficult for the aspiring trader to get to grips with all the info that is needed, there is so much clutter out there...!!

That is why this thread(and other similar ones are GOLD...!!!)

BTW........What does CT mean..???

onwards and upwards..Cheers Steve
  • #20,184
  • Mar 7, 2013 4:49pm Mar 7, 2013 4:49pm
Quoting steve d
Hi, I know how you feel about the ton of information and it being hard to digest...!!!!

It is very difficult for the aspiring trader to get to grips with all the info that is needed, there is so much clutter out there...!!

That is why this thread(and other similar ones are GOLD...!!!)

BTW........What does CT mean..???

onwards and upwards..Cheers Steve
CT = Counter Trend Trade Steve
Be Careful on these types of trades, they can be lucrative but also can get losses on them.
Kilo
  • #20,185
  • Mar 7, 2013 4:51pm Mar 7, 2013 4:51pm
Quoting steve d
Hi, I know how you feel about the ton of information and it being hard to digest...!!!!

It is very difficult for the aspiring trader to get to grips with all the info that is needed, there is so much clutter out there...!!

That is why this thread(and other similar ones are GOLD...!!!)

BTW........What does CT mean..???

onwards and upwards..Cheers Steve
Cheers!

I agree, this thread has been absolutely great since I started reading it recently.

CT meaning "Counter Trend" but I guess I used it differently in my post as if to say "counter trade". This would be (as I understand it from reading) a riskier and more advance trade taken INTO the direction of the 200 EMA instead of away from it, as the official rules recommend.

On a 15M chart, the rule was never trade into the 200 EMA unless you were at least 60 pips (approx?) away from it. And my question was whether there was another agreed upon buffer if you were in a higher time frame.

Be well, Sir

Lan
  • #20,186
  • Mar 7, 2013 5:06pm Mar 7, 2013 5:06pm
Thanks for your post LANCASTER, I am sure some one of the helpful guys will help you with your questions soon...

in the meantime, I shall post a DEMARK trend line on a 15 min chart...Is this the kind of thing that this aspiring trader should be looking at on the 15min

I have seen that the 4 h chart shows a def trend, I am waiting for the 15 min chart to do too...???

Would I want the TDI to show a cross of green/red too..???

questions,questions, thanks for your input, it is much appreciated,

S
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  • #20,187
  • Mar 7, 2013 5:21pm Mar 7, 2013 5:21pm
Quoting steve d
Thanks EMMANUELL and to Britpip...I have had another look and read your advice,

So the 4 hour chart is the first one to look at.....then....
note the movement on the 1 hour and THEN check the 15 min...a confirmation signal on TDI, line them up and go.

Does that sound a bit better.....????

I have looked at the arrows on the candle wicks, are these demark lines...???

Should I be looking at the lower lows, higher highs , etc.

There was a time, earlier in the thread, when it was trading by colours....green crosses red crosses yellow..BUY,...
Steve,

Mostly that is what I do when trading lower TFs - either the H4 or the Day and then skip on down to the TF you are trading on. Usually, once you have a good trend running on the higher TFs you should look to follow on the lower. You will also get reversals, but until the higher TFs roll over, then be aware that you are trading against a trend - mange your trade closely and have an emergency SL in place.

This is why I run the 3 charts together so that I can stay focused.

If any of the TFs I am trading have the 100 & 200EMA running horizontal with PA, I'll skip and find another pair.

One thing to note, is that as I am usually on the higher TFs, I only drop down when I'm bored and nothing much is happening on the Day. Then I'll look to scalp on the JPY pairs as they have some good range moves at the moment.
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #20,188
  • Edited 6:26pm Mar 7, 2013 5:47pm | Edited 6:26pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
what does the ATR tell you about the market?

when volatility decreases and the market goes into consolidation, what will traders do?
Quoting Kenshishi
.

Thank you Emmanuel,

The ATR measures the market volatility. So if volatility decreases and market goes into consolidation, traders will close their orders.


Quoting Axiom
Here's my opinion:

Traders (the market) are constantly trying to assess what is happening. If there's no news, then volatility will be low. News causes the volatility.
Following on from that, i would surmise that that's why breakout trades work (notwithstanding the fakeys). New news comes into the market and traders react to it.

When the market goes into consolidation, traders do nothing. They wait for news.

Axiom
Here is how I look at market consolidation:

When market goes into consolidates, prices start ranging. It can be narrow ranging or it can be wide ranging. The range show the interest of the market participants.
Two possible scenarios:

1. When you have open positions,
You need to decide on protecting your profits and how much you are willing to give back to the market when it goes against you. This requires you to follow your trade management rules and your plan TPs for those open trades.

You need to look at whether there is any crictial news annoucements ahead of the consolidation period or it is just the usual low liquidity session like during the Asian session. In either cases, I would tighten my stops especially when there is key news release in the next 4 hour period.

In some situations, I would just close my open positions and wait for the next opportunity for re-entry. I do this when my floating profit is 2R and above and looking at the 4-hour range. I will not risk giving back to the market more than 1 x ATR(10) on H4.

You also need to re-analyse the chart situation immediately to see if your initial trade setup conditions has been invalidated by the market. Trade invalidation means that there is an opposite setup condition which is not your original trade setup. This is crucial as you have to decide to close your open positions and be ready to take the opposite trade setup.

There are situations where I have open swing/position trades, and the market is trending and there was no extreme moves, I will hold my open positions protected instead of closing them. Extreme market moves always draw in more buyers/sellers and this will leave behind a lot of buyers/sellers stops which the smart money will go after their stops. Some traders believe these are stop hunting. Learning to read charts and know where technical stops are is important skill and to stay clear from those price levels.

2. When you do not have open positions-

In such a situation, you will be looking for a trade setup. You must know by now that market moves are results of buyers/sellers interests when more market participants joining the market and this increase the market liquidity hence price starts to move. These times when traders start to look for their trade setup opportunities. Trading the consolidation breakouts are common in many system traders.

Breakout trading is fast and furious and traders need the experience and the techniques to get into the market either ahead of the breakout or to catch the first pullback. There are breakouts into the establish trend and there are breakouts counter to the existing trend. This will make a difference whether you are a scalper or a day trader. As a swing trader, I do not use breakout for trade entry but I wait for the breakout to be confirmed and the trend to be established. This same rule apply when I plan for taking longer term position trades.


This is why I ask you all that question whether you are a scalper, day trader, swing trader or position trader. You have to know yourself and also what sort of trader I am and what type of trade I have open so that you will read my trade post correctly when I made post of trade setups and having open trades to manage. I do not want you to make the mistake thinking that I am a scalper scalping for thet 20pips in M15 timeframe.

Hope this explains.

Trade Well today, it is NFP day. I stand aside as I do not have any open trades and have no plan to open any new positions to day.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #20,189
  • Mar 7, 2013 6:22pm Mar 7, 2013 6:22pm
Thought for Today:

When you treat Trading as a Business, every trade you take is just like any usual business transaction. There will be the cost of doing business plus the cost of that particular transaction.
When you start your Trading Business with a startup capital say for example $10,000.
You make a business decision that each of your business transaction will cost you $100, i.e. 1%
Then when you make that transaction, you already know the $100 is cost of doing business.
You therefore must focus in the business processes and to make maximum profits out of each and every transaction.
At the end of a business cycle, you total up all your transactions and you will see if you had recovered your initial startup capital and worst case achieve breakeven. The best case of course would be there is profits in your book and you can recapitaise and grow with larger capital. Do not forget to pay yourself first before you plough back part of your hard earn profits into your capital.

Focus in the process of trading. Know what those essential skills you need to do that business as a trader. Do an honest self-evaluation of those essential skills:-
a) list down the essential skills you already have and
b) list down those essential skills which you do no have and write down what you will do to acquire them.

It is hard on first read. But it will get easier when you get started to do.

I did the above exactly 5+ years ago when I made that crucial decison to quit my day job and become a full-time investor/trader. It had worked for me as an ordinary person with a passion to live and to work for life.

Good Trading.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #20,190
  • Mar 7, 2013 11:10pm Mar 7, 2013 11:10pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
Thought for Today:

When you treat Trading as a Business, every trade you take is just like any usual business transaction. There will be the cost of doing business plus the cost of that particular transaction.
When you start your Trading Business with a startup capital say for example $10,000.
You make a business decision that each of your business transaction will cost you $100, i.e. 1%
Then when you make that transaction, you already know the $100 is cost of doing business.
You therefore must focus in the business processes and...
Do you think you would be able to risk 1% of 200K after growing it from 10K?
Here we talking about increasing your risk from $100 to $2000 which represents 1% of 10K and 200K respectively.
With God all things are possible.
  • #20,191
  • Mar 8, 2013 2:19am Mar 8, 2013 2:19am
Fail AU...

anyone help me ??

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  • #20,192
  • Edited 2:35am Mar 8, 2013 2:20am | Edited 2:35am
Quoting Dehyah
Do you think you would be able to risk 1% of 200K after growing it from 10K?
Here we talking about increasing your risk from $100 to $2000 which represents 1% of 10K and 200K respectively.
Excellent question ... Dehyah,

To grow capital compounding from starting $10k trading to reach $200k, just purely using intraday trades alone on EURUSD , it will need at least 1200 trades with a win rate of 50% minimum and R of 50pips per trade. On average 5 trades per week, that means 5 years of highly disciplined continuous trading.

With that long 5 years of trading experience, the trader would have developed that mental fitness to trade a $200K account and still use the same risk 1%.

Whether your risk amount is $100 or $2000 per trade, your risk remains the same at 1% of your capital.

It does not matter if your trade initial stop loss is 20pips or 50pips, your risk remains at 1%.

So to answer your question, I do have the mental fitness to trade a $200k account and taking each trade risk at 1%.

Hope this answers your question adequately.

But to grow $10k to $200k in 24 months, there are trading systems using smart money management methods/strategy.

Next time, I will share this when there is show of interest.

Trade Well.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #20,193
  • Mar 8, 2013 2:30am Mar 8, 2013 2:30am
Quoting lowweiting
Fail AU...

anyone help me ??

what are your trading hours for AU?

and how do you use those yellow trend lines on your charts?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #20,194
  • Mar 8, 2013 2:37am Mar 8, 2013 2:37am
Quoting lowweiting
Fail AU...

anyone help me ??

... what do you think about this...
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JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #20,195
  • Mar 8, 2013 2:39am Mar 8, 2013 2:39am
Quoting emmanuel7788
what are your trading hours for AU?

and how do you use those yellow trend lines on your charts?
4H closed below my TL, 1H PA rejected From RN and all EMA, 15M the green box is 3Bar reversal candle??

i make trade in FO....
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  • #20,196
  • Mar 8, 2013 2:46am Mar 8, 2013 2:46am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Excellent question ... Dehyah,

To grow capital compounding from starting $10k trading to reach $200k, just purely using intraday trades alone on EURUSD , it will need at least 1200 trades with a win rate of 50% and R of 50pips per trade. On average 5 trades per week, that means 5 years of highly discplined continuous trading.

With that long 5 years of trading experience, the trader would have develop that mental fitness to trade a $200K account and still use the same risk 1%.

Whether your risk amount is $100 or $2000 per trade, your risk...
Well, here's my show of interest!!

I think it can be done, providing one has profitable methods that suit the trader's psychology and applies money mngt as you mention.
Right now, my immediate goal is to get to an account balance where i can make a living from trading and grow my account. Still struggling with the whole integrated approach though (getting myself organised, identifying pairs to trade for the week/day, managing monitoring process, taking trades, etc). The more i read though, the better i feel i become, but cant make a breakthru. I think one of the issues is that there is so much info out there that one becomes confused and succumbs to "analysis paralysis", not being able to pull the trigger because you keep on second-guessing yourself. Trading is a road of self-discovery and when we find what works for us, we find the holy grail (as so many people have remarked).

Axiom



Axiom
  • #20,197
  • Mar 8, 2013 3:46am Mar 8, 2013 3:46am
EJ. Re-entry at Asia consolidation. Up 70pips.
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  • #20,198
  • Mar 8, 2013 3:56am Mar 8, 2013 3:56am
Quoting lowweiting
4H closed below my TL, 1H PA rejected From RN and all EMA, 15M the green box is 3Bar reversal candle??

i make trade in FO....
I believe that we are in a uptrend in AU. Until the price is above 1,0219 who is the HL (this level is the yesterday low too) I believe that you must look only for long. I see a 123 pattern in your chart with HH and HL so you must look only to go long!
  • #20,199
  • Mar 8, 2013 4:05am Mar 8, 2013 4:05am
Quoting emmanuel7788
.
But to grow $10k to $200k in 24 months, there are trading systems using smart money management methods/strategy.

Next time, I will share this when there is show of interest.

Trade Well.
I/We learn a lot from you. When you have time, share this, please!
  • #20,200
  • Mar 8, 2013 4:09am Mar 8, 2013 4:09am
Quoting Dehyah
Do you think you would be able to risk 1% of 200K after growing it from 10K?
Here we talking about increasing your risk from $100 to $2000 which represents 1% of 10K and 200K respectively.
Grow your account in that fashion implies that you will be in a completely different mind set. Not may be in a different mind set, you will be in a different mind set. Your confidence in your method and implementation will be in another league. You might lose $2000 on a trade and your heart won't skip a beat or get your blood pressure up. It will be OK we had a system loss, next trade please.

There will come a time when all this will be clear if you are not able to get your head around the idea at the moment.
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