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  • #37,121
  • Mar 7, 2013 12:51pm Mar 7, 2013 12:51pm
5 Minute triangle almost finished!!! Need the E wave now!
  • #37,122
  • Mar 7, 2013 1:09pm Mar 7, 2013 1:09pm
it is good to have trader here with experienced @ EW
most here still learning EW including me

if you can post more charts will be appriciated

Quoting MeInGraySuit
5 Minute triangle almost finished!!! Need the E wave now!
  • #37,123
  • Mar 7, 2013 1:14pm Mar 7, 2013 1:14pm
Quoting stevewalker
it is good to have trader here with experienced @ EW
most here still learning EW including me

if you can post more charts will be appriciated
Thanks Steve, I have some experience just as many on here. But EW is not perfect or predicting is not perfect, so caution to the wind. Make sure lot sizes and stops and entries are in the best positions for risk tolerance. But I will be happy to post my opinions...and they are only opinions. Positive Pips to all!
  • #37,124
  • Mar 7, 2013 1:14pm Mar 7, 2013 1:14pm
our next critical level
3156/62
1H CT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #37,125
  • Mar 7, 2013 1:18pm Mar 7, 2013 1:18pm
here

follow the Big Zig Zag with arrows.

the white arrow on dashed Red line pointing 3162 is the Equlibrum level of that Zig Zag

which also match with Aqua Circle High

3161
3162
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: _all.gif Size: 75 KB
  • #37,126
  • Mar 7, 2013 1:22pm Mar 7, 2013 1:22pm
Last push down on the Ascending Triangle, should push past the resistance and break. Five more small waves up to finish off 5 of 1 of C.
  • #37,127
  • Mar 7, 2013 1:27pm Mar 7, 2013 1:27pm
Quoting stevewalker
here

follow the Big Zig Zag with arrows.

the white arrow on dashed Red line pointing 3162 is the Equlibrum level of that Zig Zag

which also match with Aqua Circle High

3161
3162
Great chart Steve thanks
  • #37,128
  • Mar 7, 2013 1:30pm Mar 7, 2013 1:30pm
Last H1 candle shows preparing for move down... i'm short @ 1.3112. GL
  • #37,129
  • Mar 7, 2013 1:37pm Mar 7, 2013 1:37pm
K should be turning up from here...
  • #37,130
  • Mar 7, 2013 1:38pm Mar 7, 2013 1:38pm
Quoting sharovegas
Last H1 candle shows preparing for move down... i'm short @ 1.3112. GL
Last 1h candle was green how does that prepare for down move?
  • #37,131
  • Mar 7, 2013 1:44pm Mar 7, 2013 1:44pm
Quoting Bocephus
Last 1h candle was green how does that prepare for down move?
Color doesn't matter. That candle doesn't have shadows, it's big and there were doji before it. That's why bears are comming.
  • #37,132
  • Mar 7, 2013 1:50pm Mar 7, 2013 1:50pm
Quoting MeInGraySuit
Last push down on the Ascending Triangle, should push past the resistance and break. Five more small waves up to finish off 5 of 1 of C.
Or we could be finishing off 5 of 5 of C and we could go alot lower from here. If you think this is finishing off wave 1 of C then you are implying Price will reach into the 1.33xxs which I think is doubtful.

Considering how oversold we already are on the 1Hr candles I highly doubt that wave 1 of C is the correct wave count, especially when you consider the pip ranges of waves A & B. My preferred count is an expanded flat that is extremely close to ending right now. We'll see what happens.
  • #37,133
  • Mar 7, 2013 1:54pm Mar 7, 2013 1:54pm
Quoting Af Capt
Or we could be finishing off 5 of 5 of C and we could go alot lower from here. If you think this is finishing off wave 1 of C then you are implying Price will reach into the 1.33xxs which I think is doubtful.

Considering how oversold we already are on the 1Hr candles I highly doubt that wave 1 of C is the correct wave count, especially when you consider the pip ranges of waves A & B. My preferred count is an expanded flat that is extremely close to ending right now. We'll see what happens.
.3307 is my target!
  • #37,134
  • Mar 7, 2013 1:56pm Mar 7, 2013 1:56pm
Quoting Af Capt
Or we could be finishing off 5 of 5 of C and we could go alot lower from here. If you think this is finishing off wave 1 of C then you are implying Price will reach into the 1.33xxs which I think is doubtful.

Considering how oversold we already are on the 1Hr candles I highly doubt that wave 1 of C is the correct wave count, especially when you consider the pip ranges of waves A & B. My preferred count is an expanded flat that is extremely close to ending right now. We'll see what happens.
Also 5 of 5 of C would have to end in impulse and I don't see that yet.
  • #37,135
  • Mar 7, 2013 2:03pm Mar 7, 2013 2:03pm
Quoting MeInGraySuit
Also 5 of 5 of C would have to end in impulse and I don't see that yet.
I think we are probably in wave 4 of C. It depending on how you count the degrees of trend toward the top of the most recent rise. either way, I think the 1.32XXs are not going to be breached. Wave C should die somewhere in the 1.31 handle. IMHO
  • #37,136
  • Mar 7, 2013 2:07pm Mar 7, 2013 2:07pm
Quoting MeInGraySuit
Also 5 of 5 of C would have to end in impulse and I don't see that yet.
It's possible, on a 5 min chart to count an ending diagonal up to the 1.3118 price high as wave 5 of 5 of C.
  • #37,137
  • Mar 7, 2013 2:12pm Mar 7, 2013 2:12pm
Quoting Af Capt
I think we are probably in wave 4 of C. It depending on how you count the degrees of trend toward the top of the most recent rise. either way, I think the 1.32XXs are not going to be breached. Wave C should die somewhere in the 1.31 handle. IMHO
If this is the bottom and we break through this resistance trend line and end with this tweezer bottom on the daily candlestick then we have a large possiblity to go to at least 32.8% of this larger wave. But also there is a chance this will set up a head neck and shoulder pattern on the daily, if that is the case .3307 would be the top of the left shoulder and shoulders tend to be even somewhat plus it would be almost 50% Fib. That is my rationalism on the .3307 target. Let us get to the end of trading today and see if we keep the tweezer bottom and break the trend. If we break the trend finish off the five waves should be short and exit and then wait for retracement or what I like to call the kiss good bye, continuing upward.
  • #37,138
  • Mar 7, 2013 2:15pm Mar 7, 2013 2:15pm
Quoting Bocephus
Whats your thoughts Uturn?
Hi B,
If I ignore the Shooting Star [ATM] on the Quarterly Chart,
and the Bearish Engulfing [Feb] on the Monthly Chart,
there is a case for continuation in the Weekly Up Trending Channel.
Weekly:
1. 1.3000 significant Support and Resistance Level
2. Has 2 weeks rejection [Demand] below 1.3000
3. Has Up Channel Support
4. Has crossed to the Long Side of Moving Averages
5. Moving Averages are crossing [Long]
6. Strong move [so far] through 1.3060 [March Monthly Open]
[Note: The Open is the only price that is set in stone]
7. Massive Bullish Engulfing Daily Candlestick [today]
8. Double Bottom Theory says it should retest the Tuesday Daily High at 1.3075
9. Upside Weekly Target Zone 1.3550 to 1.3600?

So would expect a consolidation phase Friday,
with a retest of 1.3075 after such a strong move today.
Cheers,
U2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 130307_WLY[1]EURUSD.png Size: 40 KB
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
  • #37,139
  • Mar 7, 2013 2:24pm Mar 7, 2013 2:24pm
Quoting Uturn2
Hi B,
If I ignore the Shooting Star [ATM] on the Quarterly Chart,
and the Bearish Engulfing [Feb] on the Monthly Chart,
there is a case for continuation in the Weekly Up Trending Channel.
Weekly:
.....................

8. Double Bottom Theory says it should retest the Tuesday Daily High at 1.3075

So would expect a consolidation phase Friday,
with a retest of 1.3075 after such a...
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 130307_DLY[1]EURUSD.png Size: 23 KB
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
  • #37,140
  • Mar 7, 2013 2:25pm Mar 7, 2013 2:25pm
Quoting MeInGraySuit
If this is the bottom and we break through this resistance trend line and end with this tweezer bottom on the daily candlestick then we have a large possiblity to go to at least 32.8% of this larger wave. But also there is a chance this will set up a head neck and shoulder pattern on the daily, if that is the case .3307 would be the top of the left shoulder and shoulders tend to be even somewhat plus it would be almost 50% Fib. That is my rationalism on the .3307 target. Let us get to the end of trading today and see if we keep the tweezer bottom...

I hear what you are saying. I am wary of a substantial runup here too. I don't necessary see a tweezer bottom on the daily though. It is more of a "bullish engulfing" since today's candle is much bigger than yesterday's down move. I agree that if we do move higher, that potential development of a H&S pattern would be the next thing to look for.

A big part of my trading strategy is looking at relative strength correlation between currencies and equity price action. If we get a move above 1.33xx that would be bullish for equities, and equities appears so over-extended to me that I have a hard time seeing the "risk on" trade continue. I'm currently short from 1.3114 but I might get out and just watch because I do believe there is merit to your analysis. I'm not comfortable with risk on, and a EUR LONG essentially equates to that.
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